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| 03-25-23 08:55AM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
Ok some of these recent posts are getting silly. I'm going to guess Canada over Sweden in a tight final, but I can see any of three teams winning.
The inexperience of Norway and the Swiss front end may come into play here. Paetz is an amazing skip but if the ice remains difficult she may not save every crucial end.
Sometimes the winner is just the team that got a few timely breaks when they needed them. Japan got a few huge breaks that today that almost got them the win. Nobodies going to be discussing style points when the trophy is won.
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| 03-25-23 08:58AM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
Re: Total points scored
quote:
Originally posted by Alvin
According to my calculations, Canada allowed 74 points in the 12 matches they played. Switzerland allowed 36. Defense for the Canadians could be improved.
Switzerland had 2 games where they allowed more than 3 points, Canada had 11 such games. The ice conditions were more or less the same for each team.
This isn't soccer or hockey, Points allowed is a mostly meaningless stat it often reflects on style of play.
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| 03-25-23 11:26AM |
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drg
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2016
Location:
Posts: 10 |
I just watched in the first end of the Canada Norway game one of my major irritants. The rocks for second/third shot were close and the mates called for a measure, then a number of the other curlers walked up to look at the two rocks. Stay the freak out of the house! One little slip and if you touch either of the rocks and your opposition automatically gets the call. Let the measure proceed. Yeah, the likelihood is low you will slip, but why take that risk at all. In a case like this it could actually cost you a world championship!.
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| 03-25-23 11:30AM |
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drg
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2016
Location:
Posts: 10 |
Has the Canadian 5th gotten into any games? I missed the Turkey game which was Canada's only somewhat blowout and that was late in the game. The plan was to give Harris as much rest as possible. I think she must be close to running on fumes even though she is shooting and sweeping great.The lack of any blowouts might cost them as Harris wears down.
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| 03-25-23 12:55PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
Re: Re: Total points scored
quote:
Originally posted by Nine Ender
This isn't soccer or hockey, Points allowed is a mostly meaningless stat it often reflects on style of play.
This just isn't generally true. It can be true that some teams play more rocks but that doesn't lead to these types of numbers. Suzanne Birt might but Suzanne Birt has never won the Scotties or a Slam. None of the top teams are regularly giving up 3s and 4s. None. When they do they lose. The Canadian team has done so many times this week, leading to their numbers, and they've lost big games because of it.
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| 03-25-23 01:03PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
There's no upside in giving up 2+ without hammer, right? There's no stylistic case to be made for it.
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| 03-25-23 01:18PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
quote:
Originally posted by naterock_11
There's no upside in giving up 2+ without hammer, right? There's no stylistic case to be made for it.
Absolutely none. And teams that play super aggressive at not doing so with the expectation they'll do so. They play aggressive to shrink the scoring are and force their opponents into precise, difficult shots. They will give up more 2+s just by risk but when playing well they will not.
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| 03-25-23 01:27PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
Absolutely none. And teams that play super aggressive at not doing so with the expectation they'll do so. They play aggressive to shrink the scoring are and force their opponents into precise, difficult shots. They will give up more 2+s just by risk but when playing well they will not.
I suppose the case would be that swashbuckling style leads to more steals, accepting the likelihood of 2+ for the chance of stealing, but those teams don't win championships. Jennifer Jones kinda won the Olympic qualifying that way. It doesn't happen on the men's side though. And doesn't win generally.
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| 03-25-23 01:33PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
I don't care what Russ or Cathy say, that was an enormous sweeping error on Keri's first in 9 and it just lost them the game. Absolute incompetence and Erinarson knew it. Sweeting is throwing well today but her line calls this week have been the worst of her career; I just don't understand what is going on—they are smarter than this.
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| 03-25-23 02:04PM |
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Bulls Eye
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2017
Location:
Posts: 80 |
Top two teams in final. End of a long drought for Norway 🇳🇴 or continued dominance by Switzerland🇨ðŸ‡_?
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| 03-25-23 02:17PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
I didn't expect Canada to beat Switzerland but I wanted her to make the final, and I still think that path was wide open. Ah well, next year. Congrats on beating Japan in the quarters. It's not nothing.
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| 03-25-23 02:26PM |
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Dangermouse
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 245 |
quote:
Originally posted by naterock_11
There's no upside in giving up 2+ without hammer, right? There's no stylistic case to be made for it.
The way I see it
With hammer:
1. Biggest goal is to score multiple points. At least 2, but the more the merrier.
2. If you can’t get 2+, next best thing is to blank and keep hammer
3. If you can’t score 2+ or blank, you take your 1
4. If you can’t score at all or blank, you need to minimise the size of the steal
Without hammer it works the opposite way
1. Best thing is to steal
2. Next best is to force a 1
3. Next best is a blank
4. Worst thing is losing multiple points
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| 03-25-23 02:37PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by Dangermouse
Without hammer it works the opposite way
1. Best thing is to steal
2. Next best is to force a 1
3. Next best is a blank
4. Worst thing is losing multiple points
The point isn't with hammer. Obviously you should want to score as much as possible. Without hammer though it's a risk/reward calculus about stealing vs forcing. In elite curling forcing is definitely the better option because it's less risky. Keeping scores down. Tirinzoni does. Edin does. Gushue does. It's not easy to find a successful example of a steal-first approach.
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| 03-25-23 02:42PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
Retornaz won a grand slam with a steal first strategy. It's fun to watch!
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| 03-25-23 02:53PM |
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Dangermouse
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 245 |
quote:
Originally posted by naterock_11
The point isn't with hammer. Obviously you should want to score as much as possible. Without hammer though it's a risk/reward calculus about stealing vs forcing. In elite curling forcing is definitely the better option because it's less risky. Keeping scores down. Tirinzoni does. Edin does. Gushue does. It's not easy to find a successful example of a steal-first approach.
That’s just because trying to steal is risky. But if you offer teams a choice of getting an extra point and still not having the hammer, or losing a point but getting the hammer back, statistically the first option is way better
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| 03-25-23 02:58PM |
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Dangermouse
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 245 |
Is there any explainable reason why the Swiss women’s team are a bog standard team for a lot of the year including Olympics and Europeans but turn into curling demigods at the worlds every year?
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| 03-25-23 03:17PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by Dangermouse
That’s just because trying to steal is risky. But if you offer teams a choice of getting an extra point and still not having the hammer, or losing a point but getting the hammer back, statistically the first option is way better
You're talking about outcome whereas I am talking about strategy. The original debate was "is it a damning stat that Team Einarson gave up so many points". My answer is yes, either by poor execution or poor strategy. Because forcing wins championships.
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| 03-25-23 03:44PM |
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myhouse911
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2022
Location: Canada
Posts: 154 |
quote:
Originally posted by Dangermouse
Is there any explainable reason why the Swiss women’s team are a bog standard team for a lot of the year including Olympics and Europeans but turn into curling demigods at the worlds every year?
This Swiss team / the back end anyway, only had one olympics together, so not too sure if you can claim that as a trend.
Europeans are not relevant enough for them. Their goal is to win the worlds and Olympics. One of which is only attainable every four years and I wouldn’t say they were ‘bog standard’ in Beijing, they just failed when it mattered most.
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| 03-25-23 04:15PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by CurlingWatcher1
The same reason why Canada's ideal position for the worlds women is 3rd or4th.
The same reason why Sweden's men team always wins worlds.
There's no doubt the residency rules hurt Canada internationally. We don't get to assemble a "dream team". But the Scotties and Brier mean a lot to us. They're the two biggest cash cows in curling. Do we want to throw them out so we can match Tirinzoni and Edin internationally? It's not a conspiracy. It's a hard decision.
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| 03-25-23 04:46PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
quote:
Originally posted by naterock_11
We don't get to assemble a "dream team"
Hypothetically speaking, what kind of dream team do you think Canada needs to win Worlds & Olympics?
I acknowledge that the residency requirement is restrictive, but I'm not convinced that we'll see some unprecedented dream team even if we can drop the restriction. I don't think Kevin Koe, Brendan Bottcher, Brad Gushue, and Matt Dunstone would ever curl on the same team together, for example.
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| 03-25-23 04:58PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlingclips
Hypothetically speaking, what kind of dream team do you think Canada needs to win Worlds & Olympics?
I acknowledge that the residency requirement is restrictive, but I'm not convinced that we'll see some unprecedented dream team even if we can drop the restriction. I don't think Kevin Koe, Brendan Bottcher, Brad Gushue, and Matt Dunstone would ever curl on the same team together, for example.
Why not? At least as skip/3rd. You could pair Gushue Nicholds with better sweepers and guard placers than Harnden and Walker.
But this is the women's world championship thread and I don't want to derail it.
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| 03-25-23 05:10PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
Canada does not have a problem on the men's side. They are competitive in every competition. In the end you only get 1 worlds a year and an Olympics every 4, so winning a bunch of silvers and a bronze in the cycle is completely fine. On the women's side? Who the hell knows. But I will say that women's curling in general has a very up and down quality to it and Canadian teams seem very susceptible to the down on the world stage lately. But if you look at other teams the same is true: Tirinzoni at the Euros or Olympics, Fujisawa every second tournament, the Danes this week, the Koreans this week, the Swedes this week, etc.
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| 03-25-23 05:57PM |
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Dangermouse
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 245 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlingclips
Unless you're Kevin Koe, in which case 2 is not enough and you peel out your own stone to blank and retain hammer down 2 in the last end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzbRcnQ5gNk&t=2h13m53s
Statistically that’s a poor decision. Even more so now in the no tick era.
Stealing is more likely than scoring 3 points. Even if you get 2 you have to then steal the extra end.
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| 03-25-23 05:59PM |
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Dangermouse
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 245 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlingclips
Hypothetically speaking, what kind of dream team do you think Canada needs to win Worlds & Olympics?
I acknowledge that the residency requirement is restrictive, but I'm not convinced that we'll see some unprecedented dream team even if we can drop the restriction. I don't think Kevin Koe, Brendan Bottcher, Brad Gushue, and Matt Dunstone would ever curl on the same team together, for example.
Too many skips spoil the broth, but as a minimum, the best skips and vices should be playing with the best front enders. There’s no other sport in the world where the national team sent to the world championship only consists of players from one province.
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