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01-31-21 03:26PM
Manitoba Legend is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Manitoba Legend Click here to Send Manitoba Legend a Private Message Find more posts by Manitoba Legend Add Manitoba Legend to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Manitoba Legend
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Handicapping 2021 Scotties

Easier said than done. Still an almost even chance this event gets canceled if Covid-19 keeps raising its ugly spores!

Anyways, task at hand.

Obviously Rachel Homan & Co. are the odds-on favorites. Still a fairly young group, Rachel & Emma both 33, their all-powerful front end both under 30. Rachel is prolly the best-trained skip in women's curling history so the one thing that could hold her back from a 4th STOH championship is her pregnancy w/ child #2. That said, she's still my favorite. Would drop back to #3 or #5 seed if Emma had to take over the reins.

Kerri Einarson - fueld by her bullish conquest of Homan at last year's event Einarson is know the #2 monster of Canadian women's curling. Only 32, still lots of pep in the tank - and a magnificent front end led by The Medal Collector, Shannon Birchard. And while Val Sweeting can't be put in the same category of excellence as Miskew or Kaitlyn Lawes, she's very good and seems such a natural fit with this gold-medal winning squad.

#3 - Jones. No much more can be said. She'll be 47 this summer but knows how to hang around like Super-Glue in this event. Not a particularly powerful front-end with smallish Joss Peterman at 2nd and the elegant but under-powered Lisa Weagle at lead. But Weagle is one of the best leads in women's curling history. If Jones can somehow not mess up icing Weagle things could get interesting. Kaitlyn Lawes always give you a chance but too often Lawes & JJ are on different wavelengths.

#4 - Zacharias - gonna go out on my usual limb and rank the young Manitobans #4. Super-experienced for their age. They can give anyone in this field a run for their money - including Homan.

FIELD TEAMS w/ a chance.
Suzy Birt, PEI, Sherry Anderson SK, T Fleury MB, C Brown, BC.

STRAGGLERS - will win their share of games but not enough to compete for medals - L Walker, AB, B Peterrson MB

Only major league team missing - C. Scheidigger, AB. Only major skip missing = C Carey, parts unknown

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01-31-21 03:47PM
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I know this is your opinion but, seriously, Zacharias ahead of Fleury , Walker, Birt and Brown?. that just makes no sense.

talk about jumping on a band wagon

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01-31-21 04:30PM
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quote:
Originally posted by misty1
I know this is your opinion but, seriously, Zacharias ahead of Fleury , Walker, Birt and Brown?. that just makes no sense.

talk about jumping on a band wagon



Its a hunch to be sure. I don't see Zacharias landing a medal in her first trip to the well but her team is composed of young shot-pelters, not near the ferocity of Team Homan but don't let their age fool you.

btw - Homan started skinning old does when she was 14, Zacharias is 21/22.

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01-31-21 05:05PM
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Re: Handicapping 2021 Scotties

quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Only major skip missing = C Carey, parts unknown

Mixed doubles with Colin Hodgson. Lotsa Laughs and good curlers.

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02-01-21 06:55AM
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Is Manitoba getting 5 teams in the Scotties a good thing?

For Manitoba, its a hallucination of wonder. WOW-WOW-WOW...

Now, we know Tracy Fleury is a pure import skip. Macky Zacharias embarked on her pro career last season after a wonderful junior career - perhaps even better than other amazing juniors of many eras including: Sherri Schierich, Connie Laliberte, Sandra Schmirler, Jennifer Jones, Kaitlyn Lawes, Kerri Einarson, Heather Nedohin, Shannon Birchard, heck even Rachel Homan!

28% of the field being Manitoba teams is an anomaly.

Is it good for other provinces? Maybe not. But were are the championship curlers from other provinces. After Homan, even supposed powerhouse Ontario is fairly soft. Quebec is almost a non-curling province, the maritimes have lots of club curlers, few championship ladies.

Saskatchewan has had terrible time finding its next Schmirler the Curler. BC seems poised to make a play on the field with its most season champion in many a year, Corryn Brown. Only Alberta should be really peeved where its championship curler, Casey Scheidegger has somehow escaped selection to the STOH but they have a decent gamer in Laura Walker to replace her.

Manitoba gets its Team Canada in Einarson plus a Manitoba champion. The 3 wild cards can be criticized but under current points rules its an indication at how far Manitoba ladies curling has come in the last 10-15 years.
I can only thing of one person who can be blamed for the growth in Manitoba ladies curling. Her name is Jennifer Jones!

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02-01-21 12:28PM
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I think Fleury team chances just went up with Carey as skip. Fleury is very steady, great drawmaster but Carey has the upweight shots that Fleury doesn't and while Carey is less consistent she is a big game hunter.

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02-01-21 01:26PM
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quote:
Originally posted by hogged again
I think Fleury team chances just went up with Carey as skip. Fleury is very steady, great drawmaster but Carey has the upweight shots that Fleury doesn't and while Carey is less consistent she is a big game hunter.


Agree with all you posted. Carey definitely a big game hunter who sometimes doesn't appear to be present & accounted for in certain games. Fleury is a poised young lady who, as you say is slightly stronger than Kelly Scott - which means she's limited in the kind of up weight shots she can toss with any level of authority.

The only mystery meat is chemistry. Chelsea C. brings a ton of stress to every team she plays with. Wonder whether Fleury and the others will snap under such stressful conditions!

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02-05-21 11:11AM
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Here's my fearless and probably incorrect predictions for this year's event. Remember, I picked Homan last 2 years.
Homan and Jones will top their pools but Jones will not make final 4.
Peterson will be best wildcard, Zacharias will win 2 games, Carey loses tiebreaker for final 4.
Final 4--Homan, Brown, Einarson and Peterson with Brown handing Homan another finals loss.

Last edited by hogged again on 02-05-21 at 11:14AM

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02-05-21 11:19AM
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quote:
Originally posted by hogged again
Here's my fearless and probably incorrect predictions for this year's event. Remember, I picked Homan last 2 years.
Homan and Jones will top their pools but Jones will not make final 4.
Peterson will be best wildcard, Zacharias will win 2 games, Carey loses tiebreaker for final 4.
Final 4--Homan, Brown, Einarson and Peterson with Brown handing Homan another finals loss.



Wow, picking brown to win?. I like it and they're definitely a dark horse. They impressed last year. Really let the game against Jones slip away and gave Rachel all she could handle. That's impressive for a rookie scotties skip. With more experience they may well have won those games

I like your pick. Bits something different. Sadly I can't be so bold. I think they'll take bronze with a repeat of lastcyears final and I'm not sure Rachel will lose a 3rd straight final

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02-05-21 12:44PM
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Not sure who will win but looking forward to watching the Manitoba Women’s Provincial Championships in 2 weeks.

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02-05-21 12:50PM
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there is no provincials in Manitoba, men or women. Cancelled.

Eiransom - team Canada
Jones - team MB
3 wild card MB teams

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02-05-21 02:02PM
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I can't see Homan not making FINAL 4, unless there's complications in her pregnancy. Just too many completed shots game after game. A sour taste game for Rachel is prolly a team average of 74 to 78%

Obviously Homan is my pick for one of the two spots in the final. The other 3 =
Einarson (prolly 60% chance of last year's final vs. Homan)
Zacharias (top wild card)
Brown

As per a usual Scotties all the top 8 or 9 teams (half the field) will show their wares from the early stages to the 3/4 stage of the event. Amongst, those Jones will obviously the most up & down. Laura Walker & Peterson will be early giant-killers before coming down to earth. Chelsea Carey's new team will be the most interesting to watch - as Chelsea either has full chemistry or ZERO chemistry with her teams. Surprised she didn't request Dana Ferguson as her 5th player.

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02-05-21 06:02PM
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quote:
Originally posted by CURLER1
there is no provincials in Manitoba, men or women. Cancelled.

Eiransom - team Canada
Jones - team MB
3 wild card MB teams



That's the joke.

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02-05-21 07:27PM
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Hopefully this schmozzle is a one-off due to covid. 5 teams from one province should never happen....ever.

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02-05-21 10:55PM
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quote:
Originally posted by CURLER1
there is no provincials in Manitoba, men or women. Cancelled.

Eiransom - team Canada
Jones - team MB
3 wild card MB teams



Really? In that case, if I had to bet on one team to win, I’d take team wildcard.

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02-06-21 11:01AM
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quote:
Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
Hopefully this schmozzle is a one-off due to covid. 5 teams from one province should never happen....ever.


It’s a national championship. The best teams in the country should be there. Now they just need to make sure some of the worst teams won’t be there.

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02-06-21 12:24PM
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Muirhead lost the championship final to Aitkin in GB. But who will be sent to the worlds...this is a very important year for Olympic qualifiers. So Brown may not be able to finish in the top 6 at the worlds if she won the Scotties (ahem like Carey in 2019) would Canada do the same?

Rachel is pregnant & may not be able to play at the worlds anyway. So just send Einarson!

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02-06-21 01:33PM
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quote:
Originally posted by curlerbroad
Muirhead lost the championship final to Aitkin in GB. But who will be sent to the worlds...this is a very important year for Olympic qualifiers. So Brown may not be able to finish in the top 6 at the worlds if she won the Scotties (ahem like Carey in 2019) would Canada do the same?

Rachel is pregnant & may not be able to play at the worlds anyway. So just send Einarson!



I think there'd be a real slap-fight if Homan won the STOH but couldn't attend worlds - the team would scramble to bring on another player to toss 4th stones while Emma would take over the T.
Einarson would be deprived of a chance at the worlds.

Of course Kerri could solve this little problem by winning another Scotties - easier said than done!

If Einarson can't slip by Homan next week in Calgary and Homan can close out the event but couldn't proceed to worlds (assuming Worlds are still on) I would proffer 3 names to skip Team Miskew/Courtney/Wilkes.

1. Einarson (she's almost as good a hitter as Rachel, just doesn't put up the massive percentages game after game)
2. Jennifer Jones - JJ is an experienced skip but her refusal to play Homan's defense first style may be unacceptable to Team Homan.
3. Chels Carey or Casey Scheidegger - Carey might be a bit more viable than Casey because Casey isn't even playing the Scotties. Chelsea is as a last-minute replacement for Fleury. Again, Carey has some chemistry with Sarah Wilkes but who knows what kind of hell-fire would reign down if she couldn't work with Emma.

Outside shots - The Medal Collector, Shannon Birchard could either be brought in to shoot 4th stones or move down to 2nd while Emma & Wilkes move up a position.

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02-06-21 06:57PM
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Team Homan already have their 5th player. I would think before they decided and announced her, they would have already had plan B in place in case Rachel couldn't go to worlds. The last thing they need is CC imposing their will and picking their 5th for them. We saw how well that worked last time. Not.

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02-07-21 06:40AM
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quote:
Originally posted by curlerbroad
Muirhead lost the championship final to Aitkin in GB. But who will be sent to the worlds...this is a very important year for Olympic qualifiers. So Brown may not be able to finish in the top 6 at the worlds if she won the Scotties (ahem like Carey in 2019) would Canada do the same?

Rachel is pregnant & may not be able to play at the worlds anyway. So just send Einarson!



the scottish decision will be interesting as far as the women go. Mouat dominated and swept all 5 so the mens decision is a no brainer.
However muirhead and aitken is tougher. both of them won 2 of the 4 womens events. aitken also out performed muirhead in the joint mens/womens event .

i dont know what the tiebreaker is but if it is how they performed at hat combo event then aitken should get the nod. if past experience and importance of this worlds is a factor they may go wit muirhead just knowing shes always been strong for them in the past

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02-07-21 09:31AM
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quote:
Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
Team Homan already have their 5th player. I would think before they decided and announced her, they would have already had plan B in place in case Rachel couldn't go to worlds. The last thing they need is CC imposing their will and picking their 5th for them. We saw how well that worked last time. Not.


Yes also Emma had the flu during the Olympics & it was blatantly obvious they were not happy with their spare when poor Emma played when she should have been in bed,

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02-07-21 09:49AM
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Originally posted by curlerbroad


Yes also Emma had the flu during the Olympics & it was blatantly obvious they were not happy with their spare when poor Emma played when she should have been in bed,



Who was there deadbeat spare appointed by CCA in that Olympics? I forget. Pretty much swept under the rug!

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02-07-21 09:51AM
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quote:
Originally posted by misty1


the scottish decision will be interesting as far as the women go. Mouat dominated and swept all 5 so the mens decision is a no brainer.
However muirhead and aitken is tougher. both of them won 2 of the 4 womens events. aitken also out performed muirhead in the joint mens/womens event .

i dont know what the tiebreaker is but if it is how they performed at hat combo event then aitken should get the nod. if past experience and importance of this worlds is a factor they may go wit muirhead just knowing shes always been strong for them in the past



Don't know if there's quite enough votes in the Scotland Curling congress to send Aitken to Worlds.
Even if they do send Ms. Aitken I suspect they'll cut the baby in half - and force Aitken to accept Eve as their 5th player at worlds - to be deployed only if Aitken gets off to a sour start . . . ! ! !

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02-07-21 11:57AM
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Originally posted by Manitoba Legend


Who was there deadbeat spare appointed by CCA in that Olympics? I forget. Pretty much swept under the rug!



Wasn't it Cheryl Bernard?

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02-07-21 12:43PM
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quote:
Originally posted by decade


Wasn't it Cheryl Bernard?



It was but I’d hardly call her a deadbeat but CC didn’t handle things well.

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