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04-01-15 09:44PM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
Finland just beat China, knocking the Chinese out of any tiebreaker.
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Jim
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04-01-15 10:05PM |
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mgulseth
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2009
Location:
Posts: 22 |
With the schedule remaining and considering the competitive balance shown in this event, it is entirely possible for both Switzerland and Finland to lose their last 2 games, Japan to win one of theirs, and Shuster to win the last 2. How about earning a way into the top 4 without even going to tiebreakers?
Ah what the heck- I am calling it...USA! USA! USA!
Last edited by mgulseth on 04-01-15 at 10:09PM
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04-01-15 10:28PM |
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gonzobob
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2013
Location: Brooklyn Park, MN
Posts: 33 |
quote: Originally posted by Jimbobogie
Finland just beat China, knocking the Chinese out of any tiebreaker.
I don't think they're out yet. There could be a 7-way tie for 4th at 5W-6L. Or maybe they *are* out in that case if their DSC was not good enough. I don't know those results.
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04-01-15 11:55PM |
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Norse Curler
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jan 2015
Location: United States
Posts: 19 |
Nobody give Shuster any bubblegum.
...mgulseth is right. Go red, white and blue.
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Norse Curler
SKOL
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04-02-15 12:03AM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
A 7-way tie is a bit of a longshot because it requires that Italy beat Canada. Loser of China vs Scotland tomorrow morning will have 7 losses, but the other 7 teams [all but Canada, Norway, Sweden, Russia and China-Scotland loser could finish at 5-6.
Big win by Finland tonight over China because Finland now will likely finish 6-5 unless Italy can beat them in final draw. Thus, more likely scenario may be 3-way tie with Finland [lose to Canada, beat Italy], USA [beat Czechs and Russia] and Swiss [lose to Norway, beat Japan]. IF USA can finish with wins over Czechs and Russia, they should have good shot at tiebreaker for 4th place.
On the other hand, it seems that many times at national/world events, a tiebreaker appears inevitable at this point in the event and then something unexpected happens and there are no ties.
USA must beat Czechs and Russia and hope for the best. Not an impossible task. Best of all possible worlds, Finland loses to Canada and Italy, Swiss lose to Norway and Japan, and Japan loses to Canada leaving USA all alone at 6-5.
Last edited by dbsdbs on 04-02-15 at 12:40AM
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04-02-15 08:06AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
So...realistically...
The US needs to go 2-0 today and we need one of Finland or Switzerland to go 0-2.
As the US has lost head to head against both finland and switzerland, the US tiebreakers in just about any scenario that involves both teams.
Therefore, the US needs to end up in no worse than a 2 way tie for 4th at 6-5, which would result in the single TB per WCF rules, giving them life.
Now, I admit, I'd personally consider it a moral victory if the US was in a situation where under the rules up until this year, they were in the TB mix, but that's not going to be enough for some.
Finland plays Canada and Italy....0-2 is quite possible, although neither of their opponents has anything to play for any longer (Italy isn't mathematically eliminated yet, but if the US goes 2-0, which is a prereq for this scenario, then Italy will be mathematically eliminated by the time their game kicks off)
Switzerland has Norway and Japan. 0-2 is also quite possible here, particularly given that Japan could be fighting for the same scenario the US is fighting for here (although their previous game is against Norway, so it doesn't strike me as *likely*, it is, however, possible).
There is a route to 4th without tiebreakers...Finland and Switzerland both go 0-2 and Norway beats Japan...then the US is clear 4th at 6-5...and Heck, if Sweden spits the bit and goes 0-2 down the stretch as well (against China and Scotland), then the US is actually tied for 3rd...I'm pretty sure the US would be seeded 4th based on the H2H loss to Sweden, but either way, they'd be in the Page clear.
There are also some apocalyptic tie scenarios involving potentially as many as a 5 way tie for 4th...but I fear the US loses out in that scenario based on records within the tied teams. I have not run the math to verify, and without LSD/DSC results available, I don't know for sure where they'd end up anyhow.
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04-02-15 10:48AM |
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curlny
Hitting Paint
Registered: Dec 2005
Location:
Posts: 180 |
I believe Norway,Sweden,China,USA is the 1-4 order in draw shot....
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04-02-15 10:51AM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
Right now the plucky Finns are giving Canada all they can handle...4-3 Canada after 8 and Finland has hammer.
If the unthinkable happens, then 6 losses would be toast.
5-4 Finland. Canada has hammer coming home.
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Jim
Last edited by Jimbobogie on 04-02-15 at 11:04AM
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04-02-15 10:53AM |
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runinrock
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jul 2013
Location: 216
Posts: 41 |
quote: Originally posted by curlny
I believe Norway,Sweden,China,USA is the 1-4 order in draw shot....
correct, and they have a decent lead on FIN and SUI which is huge for TBs
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04-02-15 10:53AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Shuster does his job 6-2(9).
Finland might be messing up the script...Canada is only up by one in the 9th (and FIN has the hammer)
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04-02-15 11:29AM |
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IMWright
Swing Artist
Registered: Dec 2014
Location:
Posts: 206 |
With the Finland loss and US win, the US men are still alive.
Regardless what happens, better than the disaster that happened at Women's Worlds.
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04-02-15 11:32AM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
Aku Kauste gassed his final hit leaving Simmons a draw for 2 and the win. The script is still in place.
US finishes against a good, young Russian team that can't be taken lightly.
Finland finishes against Italy-still have to like the Fins.
Sweden finishes against China and Scotland-have to give them at least a split, so they'd be in.
Swiss play Norway and Japan-they control their destiny, but they have to beat Norway to do it.
The Switzerland-Norway game is in the next draw so everybody will know the score (or at least most of the score) before tonight.
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Jim
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04-02-15 11:34AM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
quote: Originally posted by IMWright
With the Finland loss and US win, the US men are still alive.
Regardless what happens, better than the disaster that happened at Women's Worlds.
...and better than the disaster that happened to Scotland. Murdoch should have been throwing skip rocks all along.
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Jim
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04-02-15 11:36AM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
Next draw is huge for USA. Need to beat Russia and probably need Norway to beat Swiss. If that happens USA is at least tied for 4t. If Swiss top Norway, then USA will need Japan to beat Swiss in final draw.
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04-02-15 11:48AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Phew....Canada helps their neighbor to the south...
So...after draw 15...
ITA, CZE, SCO, RUS are mathematically eliminated
CAN and NOR have clinched the 1-2 game, the only remaining question is who ends up 1 and who 2.
The mess is in the middle.
Sweden has the 1 game advantage on the field (6-3), and two winnable games to play (CHN and SCO). one win gets them in (and clinches 3rd). They need to play the games, but should be safe...
Switzerland is at 5-4, with 2 to play, but those two are daunting...Norway and Japan. Win both and they're in. Lose one and they will at least be in the tiebreaker hairball. Lose both and they could be on the outside looking in. No pressure guys...
Finland is at 5-5, their remaining game is with Italy. Unless Italy pulls something out of pride, Finland will get to 6-5, which is in the tiebreaker hairball (unless Switzerland wins out and sweden wins 1, in which case 6-5 doesn't get you to TB's)
The US is still very much alive at 5-5 with their remaining game against Russia. A Loss eliminates them (barring a massive tie at 5-6, and even then I think their H2H within that hairball puts them at risk).
A win still requires some help. They need one of the following to happen:
a. Sweden loses both, Switzerland loses both, Finland loses. This puts the US at clear 4th place, no TB's necessary
b. Switzerland goes 1-1, Finland loses. TB game with Switzerland for 4th
c. Switzerland goes 0-2, Finland wins. TB game with Finland for 4th
The US loses on H2H in any three way scenario with SWI and FIN.
The US also loses in the 5 way hairball if SWI, FIN, CHN, JAP, and US all tie at 5-6 (2-2 H2H in the set loses out to SWI and FIN being 3-1 in the group)
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04-02-15 12:14PM |
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tuck
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613 |
Jimboboogie, I'm not letting that comment slide. Murdoch should have been throwing skip rocks all the time? That's stupid. Where do you then turn when Murdoch ages? Where does your depth come from. Sorry to jump on that, but it's exactly that short-sighted thinking that we're fighting here in the USA. This is not an Olympic points year. Let some cream rise to the top. Let the next tier move up a tier.
Ben Tucker
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04-02-15 12:28PM |
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IMWright
Swing Artist
Registered: Dec 2014
Location:
Posts: 206 |
quote: Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Phew....Canada helps their neighbor to the south...
So...after draw 15...
ITA, CZE, SCO, RUS are mathematically eliminated
CAN and NOR have clinched the 1-2 game, the only remaining question is who ends up 1 and who 2.
The mess is in the middle.
Sweden has the 1 game advantage on the field (6-3), and two winnable games to play (CHN and SCO). one win gets them in (and clinches 3rd). They need to play the games, but should be safe...
Switzerland is at 5-4, with 2 to play, but those two are daunting...Norway and Japan. Win both and they're in. Lose one and they will at least be in the tiebreaker hairball. Lose both and they could be on the outside looking in. No pressure guys...
Finland is at 5-5, their remaining game is with Italy. Unless Italy pulls something out of pride, Finland will get to 6-5, which is in the tiebreaker hairball (unless Switzerland wins out and sweden wins 1, in which case 6-5 doesn't get you to TB's)
The US is still very much alive at 5-5 with their remaining game against Russia. A Loss eliminates them (barring a massive tie at 5-6, and even then I think their H2H within that hairball puts them at risk).
A win still requires some help. They need one of the following to happen:
a. Sweden loses both, Switzerland loses both, Finland loses. This puts the US at clear 4th place, no TB's necessary
b. Switzerland goes 1-1, Finland loses. TB game with Switzerland for 4th
c. Switzerland goes 0-2, Finland wins. TB game with Finland for 4th
The US loses on H2H in any three way scenario with SWI and FIN.
The US also loses in the 5 way hairball if SWI, FIN, CHN, JAP, and US all tie at 5-6 (2-2 H2H in the set loses out to SWI and FIN being 3-1 in the group)
Seems the most likely way to get into tiebreaker will be for the Swiss to split their last two matches (they're up against Norway, so not a walk in park) and hope the Finn's lose their match.
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04-02-15 01:31PM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
quote: Originally posted by tuck
Jimboboogie, I'm not letting that comment slide. Murdoch should have been throwing skip rocks all the time? That's stupid. Where do you then turn when Murdoch ages? Where does your depth come from. Sorry to jump on that, but it's exactly that short-sighted thinking that we're fighting here in the USA. This is not an Olympic points year. Let some cream rise to the top. Let the next tier move up a tier.
Ben Tucker
If it were a rink like Russia, I'd agree with you...but this is also MacDonald's last year of competitive curling, so either move Murdoch in to try to salvage some respect-honest, Ewen couldn't find the button if you let him carry the rock all the way down the ice-or let one of those front-end kids try their hand at calling a game.
He's only made one great shot all week (we know where), and I think it's now safe to say that it was a fluke.
If Scotland has no better men's future than this, then let Eve handle everything.
They're playing Sweden tonight-to use a term from another Scottish sport, the Swedes are looking at a "gimme".
Please understand, there's Scottish blood (as well as a wee nip or two of good Scotch) in my veins-our ancestral castle is in Stranraer-honest (and that's where legendary Scottish skip Hammy MacMillan runs the local inn-heck, he could have done a better job this week), so it pains me to say it-but it hurts even more to watch it.
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Last edited by Jimbobogie on 04-02-15 at 01:56PM
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04-02-15 02:50PM |
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Steviewondering
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jan 2015
Location:
Posts: 36 |
MacDonald beat Murdoch fair and square back in their national championship. He earned the right to be at the worlds and Murdoch didn't. Would Murdoch really do well if he was skip right now? It's not his own team for one. He's played third most of the week and they've still lost most of their games. If Scotland keeps throwing Murdoch into the fold at every World level event then who replaces him when he retires?
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04-02-15 04:38PM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
quote: Originally posted by curlny
I believe Norway,Sweden,China,USA is the 1-4 order in draw shot....
If correct, then worst USA can do is a tie-breaker for 4th spot. Nice job USA!
Congrats to HPP for getting USA curling back on track... Oh, never mind.
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04-02-15 04:38PM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Shuster wins in an extra...and is now powerless...
we need one of switz and finland to lose tonight.
if both lose, us is in.
if one loses, tb against the other.
Damn, I Wish Scotland had missed that shot now...
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04-02-15 04:52PM |
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bjacks217
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Aug 2013
Location: Michigan, United States
Posts: 22 |
What a great job by Team Shuster to keep fighting through whole round robin play despite some tough losses. This is a scrappy team.
Even though Team Shuster has been doing well during various times during the season, their success at World makes me think that a team doing well at Nationals and late in the season is preferable.
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