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02-20-15 01:32PM |
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peteski
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2007
Location:
Posts: 631 |
quote: Originally posted by nelsosi
I missed most of the 9th end (work beckoned), but I saw the final few rocks. I did not understand the last rock call - why wouldn't you just take your single and then try to hold Canada to a single in 10 and have hammer in the extra?
I'm pretty sure they were trying to take their single and just didn't make it.
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02-20-15 01:36PM |
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nelsosi
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2012
Location: YYZ, Canada
Posts: 498 |
Ah, OK. To me it looked like they were attempting some sort of tap/split for 2. But maybe that was just the plan B.
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02-20-15 01:38PM |
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albetts
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Jan 2006
Location: Peterborough
Posts: 1120 |
quote: Originally posted by nelsosi
NOnt booted this game - they had it in hand.
But, what's done is done. Would anyone be shocked if Homan went on to win the title on Sunday night?
Wouldn't be shocked at all. I can only wish and hope. lol
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02-20-15 01:56PM |
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JB42
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 621 |
I am a Team Homan fan without a doubt.
That said. There are games where you get outplayed for most of the game and win anyway. This was definitely one of those games. Horgan was sensational until the 9th.
Does that make it an unjust result? Well if there is such a thing then being outplayed and winning anyway seems pretty much the definition.
Why didn't Horgan play the out-turn draw for her one? Especially given that Russ said and Cheryl agreed there was no shot for two on the in-turn side? The only thing I can come up with is A) They thought there was a shot for two or B) They figured they knew the weight better on the in-turn side.
As to the playoffs. There is much we don't know. What we do know is that winning the Scotties or the Brier from the 3-4 game doesn't happen a whole lot. I would think at this point in the data set it would be something like 2 out of 10. Can she beat the odds? I can't imagine any team better suited to the task. So.....Go Homan! :-)
Last edited by JB42 on 02-20-15 at 01:59PM
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02-20-15 01:59PM |
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ngm
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 272 |
RE: Horgan in the 9th end.
I think the easiest shot for one was the angle tap to the four foot of their red rock (note to Lisa Weagle - your rocks were the yellow ones) and I'm not sure why that wasn't the call the whole time.
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02-20-15 02:05PM |
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milobloom
Administrator
Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 839 |
quote: Originally posted by Hack Weight
It's difficult to beat a quality team twice within 18 hours.
GregJP may want to help me on this one.
Another overly used comment in sports. "Difficult to beat a team 2 (or 3) times in a row". The problem with this comment is it implies the outcome of the first game has any bearing on the next. It does not.
If these teams are considered equal, her chance to win the next game are the same as the were the first game. If we assume it's a coin flip, then the chance of each team to win both games (before they start) is 25%, and the odds of going 1-1 are 50%. However, once the first game is over, the odds are no longer 25%, it becomes 50% again.
Of course, in womens curling hammer is worth 6%, so that means something.
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02-20-15 02:39PM |
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sternwheeler
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2012
Location: Canoe Cove, PEI
Posts: 411 |
quote: Originally posted by misty1
i wish vic would stop quoting numbers. i didnt mind when linda did it because she did it occasionally . vic does it multiple times in every game
Ahhhhh nice aye, kind of reminds me why they call Vic "Mr Commercial" ahhaahah after all all the sponsors need to be mentioned
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02-20-15 02:56PM |
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bennybeam
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2015
Location:
Posts: 98 |
i give full marks to richard for taking the high road with rachel. She obviously doesn't want any input and it's often only after emma suggests a timeout that one is called. She's a great talent--no doubt there---but she's also lacking some contrition that all the great ones have. Truth is, richard has forgotten more than she will know about curling and to summarily dismiss his comments continually is foolish. I would suspect rachel's act is wearing thin on emma as well as she often says 'whatever you like rachel'---my inclination is richard will say thanks but no thanks after the STOH and I wouldn't be a bit surprise to see the team break up if a significant amount of success isn't obtained in the next day or so.
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02-20-15 03:08PM |
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guido
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1418 |
quote: Originally posted by bennybeam
i give full marks to richard for taking the high road with rachel. She obviously doesn't want any input and it's often only after emma suggests a timeout that one is called. She's a great talent--no doubt there---but she's also lacking some contrition that all the great ones have. Truth is, richard has forgotten more than she will know about curling and to summarily dismiss his comments continually is foolish. I would suspect rachel's act is wearing thin on emma as well as she often says 'whatever you like rachel'---my inclination is richard will say thanks but no thanks after the STOH and I wouldn't be a bit surprise to see the team break up if a significant amount of success isn't obtained in the next day or so.
Unless someone gets pregnant or homesick, this team isn't breaking up until 2018
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02-20-15 03:18PM |
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bennybeam
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2015
Location:
Posts: 98 |
you might be right but this much i know---they might be w/o a coach sooner than you think, rachel is going out of her way to praise courtney for average shot-making (that's code for she's not impressed) and they are getting bounced out of the STOH sometime in the next 24 hours. I have this feeling that rachel's the type that will insist upon change. Time will tell, it always does.
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02-20-15 03:26PM |
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GregJP
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 378 |
quote: Originally posted by milobloom
GregJP may want to help me on this one.
Another overly used comment in sports. "Difficult to beat a team 2 (or 3) times in a row". The problem with this comment is it implies the outcome of the first game has any bearing on the next. It does not.
If these teams are considered equal, her chance to win the next game are the same as the were the first game. If we assume it's a coin flip, then the chance of each team to win both games (before they start) is 25%, and the odds of going 1-1 are 50%. However, once the first game is over, the odds are no longer 25%, it becomes 50% again.
Of course, in womens curling hammer is worth 6%, so that means something.
Your analysis is correct, so I think it's a matter of semantics. Are you looking at the situation before the first game or the second game. The important think is that the outcome of the first has no effect on the second.
It's like the gambler's fallacy. If a roulette wheel comes up red 9 times in a row it's NOT due to come up black. It's still 50/50 on the next spin.
As far as the 18 hrs, it's irrelevant. It makes no difference if you're playing the same team 18 hrs apart or 18 days apart.
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02-20-15 03:33PM |
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mcgregorm89
Swing Artist
Registered: Apr 2014
Location: Kingston, ON
Posts: 210 |
quote: Originally posted by bennybeam
you might be right but this much i know---they might be w/o a coach sooner than you think, rachel is going out of her way to praise courtney for average shot-making (that's code for she's not impressed) and they are getting bounced out of the STOH sometime in the next 24 hours. I have this feeling that rachel's the type that will insist upon change. Time will tell, it always does.
Pretty sure Hart will be relieved of his coaching duties after the Scotties or maybe before that judging on how Rachel was acting.
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02-20-15 03:36PM |
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Rowner
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jul 2011
Location:
Posts: 15 |
Homan & Hart
I am a Homan fan but I am a huge Hart fan. Rachel seems to be discontent with receiving any type of feedback from any coach (Earle or Richard) which I think speaks to the type of competitor Rachel is. She is a fierce competitor with a strong personality combined with enormous talent who in all likelihood does not require input from a coach to determine the shot she wants to play. In my opinion thats fine, but then why do you have a coach to begin with. Richard had handled the week very well and has presented the higher percentage shot in most if not all of his suggestions. He's done it in a way that has not pushed Homan into making a decision she doesnt want to make. The results this week have been mediocre at best but if Richard can rub a quarter of his knowledge off on the girls then they will be far better off in the long run. Richies patience will and have been tested I'm sure but knowing Mr. Hart he's dealing with it very well. Dont underestimate this combo. My prediction is Homan handles Lawton in the 3/4 and then it's a toss up as the top 3 teams (Jones, Val and Homan) are essentially equal, it will simply come down to who can make the big shot when needed.
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02-20-15 03:48PM |
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guido
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1418 |
quote: Originally posted by bennybeam
you might be right but this much i know---they might be w/o a coach sooner than you think, rachel is going out of her way to praise courtney for average shot-making (that's code for she's not impressed) and they are getting bounced out of the STOH sometime in the next 24 hours. I have this feeling that rachel's the type that will insist upon change. Time will tell, it always does.
I was just referring to the 4 girls.
I doubt rich is a coach in 2 more days. NBD.
The one coach that is absolutely useless....... Rick Folk.
Coaching like he is still playing 25 years ago. Defensive play beats the weaker teams, it just prolongs the agony with the elite teams.
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02-20-15 03:54PM |
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Deucey
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2005
Location: Calgary
Posts: 612 |
Re: Homan & Hart
quote: Originally posted by Rowner
I am a Homan fan but I am a huge Hart fan. Rachel seems to be discontent with receiving any type of feedback from any coach (Earle or Richard) which I think speaks to the type of competitor Rachel is. She is a fierce competitor with a strong personality combined with enormous talent who in all likelihood does not require input from a coach to determine the shot she wants to play. In my opinion thats fine, but then why do you have a coach to begin with. Richard had handled the week very well and has presented the higher percentage shot in most if not all of his suggestions. He's done it in a way that has not pushed Homan into making a decision she doesnt want to make. The results this week have been mediocre at best but if Richard can rub a quarter of his knowledge off on the girls then they will be far better off in the long run. Richies patience will and have been tested I'm sure but knowing Mr. Hart he's dealing with it very well. Dont underestimate this combo. My prediction is Homan handles Lawton in the 3/4 and then it's a toss up as the top 3 teams (Jones, Val and Homan) are essentially equal, it will simply come down to who can make the big shot when needed.
Rachel should then take a page out of Colleen Jone's book. Hire a coach that's actually a sports phycologist. Then maybe she can get a technical coach who assists in practices, similar to how golfers would have a swing coach.
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02-20-15 04:25PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by JB42
I am a Team Homan fan without a doubt.
That said. There are games where you get outplayed for most of the game and win anyway. This was definitely one of those games. Horgan was sensational until the 9th.
Does that make it an unjust result? Well if there is such a thing then being outplayed and winning anyway seems pretty much the definition.
Why didn't Horgan play the out-turn draw for her one? Especially given that Russ said and Cheryl agreed there was no shot for two on the in-turn side? The only thing I can come up with is A) They thought there was a shot for two or B) They figured they knew the weight better on the in-turn side.
As to the playoffs. There is much we don't know. What we do know is that winning the Scotties or the Brier from the 3-4 game doesn't happen a whole lot. I would think at this point in the data set it would be something like 2 out of 10. Can she beat the odds? I can't imagine any team better suited to the task. So.....Go Homan! :-)
it doesnt happen often but its happened recently when heather nedohin did it in 2012.
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02-20-15 04:42PM |
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bpm
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Nov 2008
Location:
Posts: 40 |
I think people here are being a bit tough on Rachel. Her front end have been pretty shaky the second half of this tournament, and have got them off to complicated starts. That, and it seems the team have been surprised in several games when the ice straightens out late, something they should have (and possibly may have) identified post game with their coach.
Rachel has always been a big time shot maker, and when the rest of the team is struggling, she tries to put it on her back rather than pick up her teammates. That's just who she is, and you can't blame her for it when it's served her so well over her career. But what they really miss an Alison Kreviazuk who was great at making clutch shots and lifting the team morale when the mood was a bit low. They'll get there with Joanne - you can see the progress in her relationship with the others on the team this week - but you can't replace the chemistry that the old rink built over 10+ years in one season. 10+ years!
They showed excellent progress in the game against Alberta, where they came back strong when Sweeting opened the door in the 5th, only to lose when Rachel again got fooled on how straight the ice was late on an up weight takeout on her first in the 10th. And today's comeback against NONT was pretty strong as well - it shows plenty of mental toughness. The good teams make you finish them off.
It brings to mind a certain other fiery competitor who used to start very slow in these tournaments and relied on hanging around and winning a lot of games on big shots/comebacks late - Jennifer Jones. She's won her fair share of Scotties in that manner (Angle raise vs. Hanna, comeback from 6-3 down after 6th vs. PEI, etc...) It's funny - seems like the skips we criticize most over the years are the ones doing all the winning.
Don't count the Homan team out - they could still make it three straight Scotties yet, and they may do it exactly the same way they just beat NONT.
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02-20-15 05:23PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
i think people are being ridiculous by suggesting line up or coaching changes for them. there's been a lot of change for rachel since lkast season with the loss of a friend more like a sister and a coach. lets give it a while before we suggest change
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02-20-15 05:27PM |
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sternwheeler
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2012
Location: Canoe Cove, PEI
Posts: 411 |
quote: Originally posted by misty1
i think people are being ridiculous by suggesting line up or coaching changes for them. there's been a lot of change for rachel since lkast season with the loss of a friend more like a sister and a coach. lets give it a while before we suggest change
RIGHTFULLY SO THEY SAY THE 'CREAM ALWAYS RISES TO THE TOP " RIGHT so wait and see playoffs are here , sit back and enjoy
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02-20-15 06:12PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
I don't think Homan thinks about the four losses at all. She got kicked around pretty severely this week but still has a chance.
Her toughest game might be against the extremely stubborn Saskatchewan group. Both teams led by skillful technical skips. That they are defensive-minded is an understatement.
Lawton has been thru the mill so many times with tepid results. This is her time to shine. Biggest difference in the 3-4 might be at coaching where Rick Folk is a legend for life and Rich Hart a virtual newbie - at least to Stef Lawton.
Front end is a saw-off. Weagle is better than Marlise and Marlise ain't chopped liver. Stef Schmidt is out-curling Courtney by a country mile - lets see if that continues in a high duress game.
Anderson is nowhere near the skilled performer that Emma is but Anderson is a master-freezer. Emma has had more than her quota of botched shots.
Skip wise always chose Homan. Lawton's form chart indicates high levels of panic and stress in key games. Homan's team is wounded but still dangerous. Beware a wounded animal. For they can truly be dangerous!!!
there really isnt that much difference between sherry and emma
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02-20-15 06:40PM |
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Deucey
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2005
Location: Calgary
Posts: 612 |
quote: Originally posted by bpm
I think people here are being a bit tough on Rachel. Her front end have been pretty shaky the second half of this tournament, and have got them off to complicated starts. That, and it seems the team have been surprised in several games when the ice straightens out late, something they should have (and possibly may have) identified post game with their coach.
Rachel has always been a big time shot maker, and when the rest of the team is struggling, she tries to put it on her back rather than pick up her teammates. That's just who she is, and you can't blame her for it when it's served her so well over her career. But what they really miss an Alison Kreviazuk who was great at making clutch shots and lifting the team morale when the mood was a bit low. They'll get there with Joanne - you can see the progress in her relationship with the others on the team this week - but you can't replace the chemistry that the old rink built over 10+ years in one season. 10+ years!
They showed excellent progress in the game against Alberta, where they came back strong when Sweeting opened the door in the 5th, only to lose when Rachel again got fooled on how straight the ice was late on an up weight takeout on her first in the 10th. And today's comeback against NONT was pretty strong as well - it shows plenty of mental toughness. The good teams make you finish them off.
It brings to mind a certain other fiery competitor who used to start very slow in these tournaments and relied on hanging around and winning a lot of games on big shots/comebacks late - Jennifer Jones. She's won her fair share of Scotties in that manner (Angle raise vs. Hanna, comeback from 6-3 down after 6th vs. PEI, etc...) It's funny - seems like the skips we criticize most over the years are the ones doing all the winning.
Don't count the Homan team out - they could still make it three straight Scotties yet, and they may do it exactly the same way they just beat NONT.
The only reason people are being "tough" on Rachel is because it's clear to all that she's one of the elite talents in the game today. We're use to her making everything and anything. It's easy to forget that curling is a fickle game and that being a pinch off here or there can change a game. Also, she burst onto the scene and had success right away so for most of us this is the first time we've watched he struggle a bit.
With that said, they've made the playoffs and she's definitely got a puncher's chance. Even a struggling Homan team is a threat to win it all.
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02-20-15 07:01PM |
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bennybeam
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2015
Location:
Posts: 98 |
The truth of the matter is she's been borderline awful all week. NO had to make no fewer than four bonehead mistakes or Rachel would be on the way to the airport. Add to that she doesn't like this sheet, that draw isn't there and her HOF coach is apparently an idiot the chances of her team advancing are slim. It's a funny game curling and I'll take an average team playing together over a dictator any day
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02-20-15 07:09PM |
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johnnysmoke
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2002
Location:
Posts: 612 |
No, the real truth of the matter is that every member on the Rachel Homan team expects to and usually does make every shot perfectly. When they don't, or when the rocks end up being in not the perfect location, it's just a fluke.
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02-20-15 07:16PM |
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bennybeam
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2015
Location:
Posts: 98 |
Oh I got it now, the key to winning is just "expecting". All this time I thought it was about executing your shots and reading the ice. Holman is a hot head and now that the proverbial bump in the road is here she's incapable of changing,even with a capable coach. If NO had a coach Rachel is on a plane.
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02-20-15 07:18PM |
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CurlingGeek
Swing Artist
Registered: Apr 2011
Location:
Posts: 208 |
Unfortunately I have been unable to find a volunteer in Moose Jaw for the weekend. If anyone is attending the games and wants to geek, please send me an email: geek@curlinggeek.com.
You need a laptop or iPad. Easy to do, fun, and you'll make a lot of people happy.
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