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| 02-22-16 11:53PM |
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JB42
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 621 |
At this Scotties there are only two teams that should be there at the end. I.e. Teams whose past record gives us a fair indication of where they are going.
Those two teams are Jones and Carey.
After that it's an absolute crapshoot.
E.g
Sure like many I was impressed by McCarville half a decade ago. This is however an entirely new team with ZERO cash spiel accomplishment.
Einarson has a little more under her belt but relatively speaking nothing. Beside that it's an wide open 'LolaPalloza'.
Not saying there is anything wrong with that per say. Just saying that given their track record i's gonna be Jen and Chelsea at the end of the day. Not for sure. Just based on previous form and nothing else to go on.
Last edited by JB42 on 02-22-16 at 11:57PM
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| 02-23-16 12:06AM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
quote:
Originally posted by JB42
Sure like many I was impressed by McCarville half a decade ago. This is however an entirely new team with ZERO cash spiel accomplishment.
I know Vic Rauter told you that, but McCarville did win a pretty major Tour event this year, the Colonial Square Classic in Saskatoon. $13,000 first prize.
The McCarville team won 4 total events, and has a very impressive record this season. Didn't play a lot, but when they did they won. Currently site at 36-7 on the season, which includes losing their first 4 games.
Ashley Sippala (Miharija) played 3rd for Krista for several years and now stepped down to second where Kendra Lilly joined the team. I believe Lilly finished 4th the last time Ontario and Northern Ontario had a single entry. She's good too. Sarah Potts played with Krista and Ashley previously as well, so the team is comfortable together.
They should be in the mix as well and can't be taken lightly.
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| 02-23-16 12:14AM |
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IN-OFF-FOR-2
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 1875 |
It's too bad Ontario is host next year, as every other province and territory would be dancing with glee to see them relegated. Something that they glibly would have brought/forced upon themselves. Perfect example that EVERY province only has a few top teams that can compete, regardless of how many teams are amongst the top ctrs points they've bought. Last years ON team not named Homan finished bottom/middle half of the pack below 500 as well. This team will probably crawl their way back again to bottom middle but wouldn't it be something if they did finish last.
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| 02-23-16 02:47AM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
It's looking like it will be Alberta, N.Ont and Canada in the playoffs, but N.Ont are noobs so they could falter, who the other team will be is anyone's guess, I'd say Hanna is a good bet, but she's in trouble, Larouche also been here before but is having a hard time, Birt has a nice shot IMO, played lights out vs. Alberta today, still could not win, Brothers and Campbell have been surprises, Einarson's got a chance.
At the other end of the spectrum I see either NB or Newfoundland being relegated.
I know it's late but what a massive upset of Nunavut over BC in qualifying, I guess they have more than we thought.
It's absolutely horrible that the best team in the world Homan is not here, it brings the level down, Hanna is not proving her worth so far.
Last edited by Stoner on 02-23-16 at 02:56AM
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| 02-23-16 08:48AM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
ML your loyalty to Jen Hanna is admirable...but her team is just not supporting her. Why Homan picked the final of the Ontario Provincials to have a bad game...maybe securing the trials spot caused them to take their foot off the gas pedal.
But if Hanna doesn't pick it up soon - then Ontario could be relegated. NL is showing signs of life and NB should not be dismissed.
Ontario's talent pool isn't that deep. Middaugh does well on tour but not so much at Provincials - rather puzzling. Hastings finished middle of the pack at last year's Scotties
Next year the Ontario women will be playing on arena ice which I think will help.
Watching PEI vs Alberta last night was one of the best games I've seen so far. The others have been mediocre at best. I hope the Brier games are like these games.
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| 02-23-16 09:07AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
i guess i shouldnt be to surprised at ontario. jen did need double tiebreakers to get to the playoffs last time she was here. she finished 6-5 and got considerable luck for that to get her anything.
its concerning for me that jen had to work so hard to beat newfoundland . should have been her easiest win
a lot of talk about what teams to expect final 4. if PEI can keep playing even close to how they did last night they will get there
predictions for today:
ontario def. british columbia
manitoba def. quebec
prince edward island def.northern ontario
canada def. new brunswick
northern ontario def. newfoundland
alberta def. new brunswick
quebec def. nova scotia
saskatchewan def. british columbia
saskatchewan def. canada
prince edward island def. nova scotia
alberta def. ontario
manitoba def. newfoundland
a note:
krista really needs more help from her team. ashley and kendra are not helping her at all. most of the time when northern ontario scores 2 its because of the shots krista made on her own. she cant keep doing that. literally every time she comes to through she is having to make doubles or hits and rolls or big draws to bail her team out. she needs help from her team. they have to start setting things up better or it'll wear her out
Last edited by misty1 on 02-23-16 at 09:11AM
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| 02-23-16 09:08AM |
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JB42
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 621 |
quote:
Originally posted by Gerry
I know Vic Rauter told you that, but McCarville did win a pretty major Tour event this year, the Colonial Square Classic in Saskatoon. $13,000 first prize.
The McCarville team won 4 total events, and has a very impressive record this season. Didn't play a lot, but when they did they won. Currently site at 36-7 on the season, which includes losing their first 4 games.
Ashley Sippala (Miharija) played 3rd for Krista for several years and now stepped down to second where Kendra Lilly joined the team. I believe Lilly finished 4th the last time Ontario and Northern Ontario had a single entry. She's good too. Sarah Potts played with Krista and Ashley previously as well, so the team is comfortable together.
They should be in the mix as well and can't be taken lightly.
Thanks for the info Gerry. That is a very nice record. Back when McCarville first came on the scene I was so impressed with her game calling I thought her able to take the woman's game to the next level. Nice to see her back and playing so well.
A thought as to relegation. Shouldn't a province be exempt from relegation if one of their teams is Team Canada? Otherwise any time a province outside the big four wins they would be at a very high risk of being relegated the next year.
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| 02-23-16 09:25AM |
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Rock Your World
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2011
Location:
Posts: 313 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlerbroad
Ontario's talent pool isn't that deep.
It appears it isn't.. Including this year if you go back to 2014.. Ontario womens Round Robin Record is 9 wins and 17 losses... I wonder how that record would compare to some of the other provinces if those provinces sent there 2nd best womens teams to the Scotties..
Curling club ice is Middaughs kryptonite.. I remember seeing the Middaugh team in December 2012 curling in the regional playdowns losing a game to a much inferior team and being unimpressed and thinking they were a spent force and then a year later they got to the Roar of the Rings trials finals..
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| 02-23-16 09:32AM |
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Rock Your World
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2011
Location:
Posts: 313 |
quote:
Originally posted by misty1
krista really needs more help from her team. ashley and kendra are not helping her at all.
Yep other posters have come to Kendra and Ashleys defense but you're right... It is Kristas superwoman act that has got them to 3-1
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| 02-23-16 09:32AM |
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FollowingAlong
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location:
Posts: 459 |
quote:
Originally posted by Ajay
It seems teams are doing it to get their ice legs and get a feel for the ice. I think the issue raised is that they waste 20% (each team on average has hammer 5 times) of the game where they could get points.
Technically, if the team with the hammer blanks the first end of a 10 end game, they have wasted none of their own hammers - there are nine ends remaining of which they would still have five hammer chances (presuming no more blank ends).
So from a strictly strategic perspective, if both teams have had an equal number of hammers in a game then the team with the hammer blanking an odd end is a tactical advantage over the opposition as the team with the hammer is "wasting" one of the opponent hammer chances.
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| 02-23-16 09:57AM |
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JB42
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 621 |
quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
curlerbroad - I go back over a decade with Jenn Hanna; and to tell the truth I hated her with prejudice cuz she had the audacity to put JJ thru the wringer in the 2005 thing before succumbing to 'The Shot'....
I thought you said Britney (the 3rd) was going to be a revelation . . . . from what I've seen thus far she looks uncomfortable out there --- perhaps time to insert Pascal Letendre into lineup? Sagle seems very solid as does Stephanie Hanna - but Britney must really be letting Jenn down.
Agreed - after Homan there doesn't seem to be much strength in the Ontario back-hopper. I'd say relegation is about a 10 to 15% possibility but its certainly there.
However, even if we agree The Mean Girls are one of the top 5 womens teams on the planet one has to be circumspect of their record.
All I see in that team are 4 gifted young women with superlative technical skills who have pulled the plug at critical times in their development.
1. The year they let their first fawn out of their jaws and barfed away the Ontario championship to Tracy Horgan (now Fleury)
2. This year - having difficulty with the rustic rooster Jenn Hanna in the 1 v 2 Ontario game, barely getting by Hanna and then succumbing to a jacked up Hanna in Ontario's final.
3. Two world championship tries - both devoid of gold
4. Last years STOH - as Team Canada - a tepid 7-4 record (much of it attributable to breaking in a fresh second in J. Courtney) and then succumbing to a game but certainly not invincible Val Sweeting in the semi-final - - - and if she had made the final I'm sure she'd have her 3rd STOH as her only real war medal is being the top "Jones Killer" in the world.
5. A soft performance turned in at the 2013 Olympic Trials tourney in Winnipeg where she failed to make the final and let Sherry Middaugh be the lamb led down to slaughter at the hands of Jennifer Jones.
So while I'm a huge admirer of the mean girls and recognize them as the foremost Jones-killers on the planet there record has been littered with more than the number of disappointments you'd expect.
I think last year's 7-4 Scotties record and the loss to Sweeting might be their biggest disappointment. The two sourpuss games Rachel turned in to let other women get out of Ontario a close second.
However, given the state of Ontario ladies curling I suspect she should be good to go for at least 4 of the next 6 Ontario championships. If they didn't have that great cash spiel record (slams, etc.) I think they'd just be considered rather ordinary rounders and NOT SUPERSTARS.
Oh Captain my Captain sometimes you really go off the rails. What you are noticing above is quite simply the nature of our game. Like golf this game cannot be dominated. And for very much the same reason as golf. I.e. The playing field is not a snooker table or a chess board. There are a great many variables that can never be fully controlled. Or put another way. If you win one out of every four, you are dominating.
Let's for example take the two greatest curlers in history Martin and Howard. Martin was 1-5 in his attempts to win an international gold before 2010. In 30 tries he failed to even make it to the Brier 18 times. Glenn meanwhile lost 7 Brier finals and an Olympic Trials final, failed to make the playoffs in the last Olympic Trials, made the Brier playoffs 14 times, and won 'only' four Briers.
Meanwhile his brother Russ in his 30 tries at making and winning the Brier, made 14 and won a total of 2.
Team Homan has made 4 Hearts in 6 tries and won 2 of those 4. Not to mention that they have 5 Slam victories. Team Jacobs by contrast has 1. And that's no knock against Team Jacobs. It's tough out there as Team McEwen has learned over the years at the Manitoba Provincials. At the very least the only conclusion to be drawn so far from Team Homan's career is that they are wayyyyyyy ahead of the curve that this game normally throws at teams.
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| 02-23-16 10:01AM |
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FollowingAlong
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location:
Posts: 459 |
quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
\\
10 ends is a lot of curling. Other than JJ (who is out for offensive blood from the get-go) most teams just try to avoid barfing up an opening deuce while trying to find their sea legs. Don't lose the game in the first end is the theme!
Besides if you blank the 1st end - guess what - you still have da hammer!
Not sure what point you were trying to make here. I don't know the reason why every team who blanks the first end does it. My prior post was in response to a post that indicated that a blank end by the team with the hammer was a "wasted" hammer for that team when, in reality, if the blank end occurs in an odd end where both teams have had equal hammers up to that point, it is not a wasted hammer for the team who blanked that end because, as you point out, they keep the hammer for the even end.
In the case of a team like Homan, if they have hammer in the first end, they make a conscious effort to blank the first end - it eliminates an opposition scoring opportunity (a hammer end) without affecting the number of hammer chances they will have (unless the opposition blanks an end later on or they give up a steal). When/if they score in the second end, they are now ahead on the scoreboard *AND* each team has four hammer chances remaining. And in Homan's case I don't think it has any relationship to them trying to "find their sea legs."
There are true tactical reasons for blanking an end that go beyond the simple "we can't score more than one this end so we'll try again next end" reason.
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| 02-23-16 10:47AM |
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Rock Your World
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2011
Location:
Posts: 313 |
Kristin will be probably get a "2" for her 2nd throw but it should be a zero... O out of 8 to start the game... Even with a rock at almost top 8 Einarson still wanted to blank
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| 02-23-16 11:04AM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
curlerbroad - I go back over a decade with Jenn Hanna; and to tell the truth I hated her with prejudice cuz she had the audacity to put JJ thru the wringer in the 2005 thing before succumbing to 'The Shot'....
I thought you said Britney (the 3rd) was going to be a revelation . . . . from what I've seen thus far she looks uncomfortable out there --- perhaps time to insert Pascal Letendre into lineup? Sagle seems very solid as does Stephanie Hanna - but Britney must really be letting Jenn down.
No - I said the third was a fun person with a great personality but if you look at my other posts, I noted that the rest of the Ontario team would really need to curl better than they had before. Perhaps bring Pascale back at 3rd for a game or two might help but again could create unnecessary team tension.
I hope they pull it together...just imagine Homan in the relegation round next year!
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| 02-23-16 11:06AM |
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Sean
Administrator
Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Canada
Posts: 1992 |
Who needs the 5-rock rule when everyone is scoring 3-5 enders every game :lol:
PEI just bust out a 4 ender in the 1st in their game, CAN bust out a 5 in theirs.
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| 02-23-16 11:22AM |
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ott-am
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2005
Location:
Posts: 371 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlerbroad
I hope they pull it together...just imagine Homan in the relegation round next year!
CB, I doubt Hanna will be last, but it does not matter how they finish this year, Ontario cannot be relegated next year as they are hosting.
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| 02-23-16 11:31AM |
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Ajay
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2014
Location:
Posts: 570 |
quote:
Originally posted by FollowingAlong
Technically, if the team with the hammer blanks the first end of a 10 end game, they have wasted none of their own hammers - there are nine ends remaining of which they would still have five hammer chances (presuming no more blank ends).
So from a strictly strategic perspective, if both teams have had an equal number of hammers in a game then the team with the hammer blanking an odd end is a tactical advantage over the opposition as the team with the hammer is "wasting" one of the opponent hammer chances.
m
If I counted on first end with hammer, after nine ends I would have 5 hammers to the opponents 4. At that point I shake hands or run opponent out of rocks. Too simple? Or wishful thinking?
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| 02-23-16 11:49AM |
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FollowingAlong
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location:
Posts: 459 |
quote:
Originally posted by Ajay
m
If I counted on first end with hammer, after nine ends I would have 5 hammers to the opponents 4. At that point I shake hands or run opponent out of rocks. Too simple? Or wishful thinking?
Sorry, I miss your point. In your example, there are only nine ends of a 10 end game complete. Your opposition would have the hammer coming home, so their fifth hammer. Ideally you could hope to run your opponent out of rocks in the 10th, but if you only have a one point lead, it would be impossible to run them out of rocks.
A perfect game scenario is to change the game's parameters in your favour by reducing the number of times the opposition can have hammer compared to your team's number of hammers.
It would be interesting to see if it is statistically better to count in the first end with the hammer or to blank the first end and then count in the second end since, in theory, your opponent has fewer chances to score (excluding stolen ends) when the team with the hammer blanks an odd end.
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| 02-23-16 03:49PM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
quote:
Originally posted by FollowingAlong
It would be interesting to see if it is statistically better to count in the first end with the hammer or to blank the first end and then count in the second end since, in theory, your opponent has fewer chances to score (excluding stolen ends) when the team with the hammer blanks an odd end.
WOMEN: 10 END Games Since 2010/11 Season
Blank 1st: 1067-751, 58.6%
Then Score 1 in 2nd: 343-277, 55.3%
Score 1 in 1st: 1135-880, 56.3%
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| 02-23-16 04:37PM |
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FollowingAlong
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location:
Posts: 459 |
quote:
Originally posted by Gerry
WOMEN: 10 END Games Since 2010/11 Season
Blank 1st: 1067-751, 58.6%
Then Score 1 in 2nd: 343-277, 55.3%
Score 1 in 1st: 1135-880, 56.3%
Thanks Gerry. Although not a huge difference, I'm a little surprised that there's a slight edge to scoring 1 in the first end versus getting one in the second end after a blank.
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| 02-23-16 06:55PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
very important quebec got the 2 wins today especially given who they play tomorrow
saskatchewan v.s canada should be a great game. what a shame no one wil be able to watch it because of TSn only broadcasting on one channel tonight and making the feature game ontario v.s alberta.
im very pissed off right now. what moron decided that it would be a better idea to replay a champions league round of 16 instead of showing a game here that mattered and was live and involved the defending champions
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| 02-23-16 06:59PM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
quote:
Originally posted by misty1
very important quebec got the 2 wins today especially given who they play tomorrow
saskatchewan v.s canada should be a great game. what a shame no one wil be able to watch it because of TSn only broadcasting on one channel tonight and making the feature game ontario v.s alberta.
im very pissed off right now. what moron decided that it would be a better idea to replay a champions league round of 16 instead of showing a game here that mattered and was live and involved the defending champions
That would have been a great game to watch especially with the two personalities of the teamsboo to TSN
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| 02-23-16 07:35PM |
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Frozencanuck
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jan 2015
Location:
Posts: 76 |
Attendance
First 6 draws averaged just over 1500/draw says the Sun report. 1500! My grandkids soccer games draw better. Yes, everybody stays home to watch on TV, but that is only because it is hard to get their walkers through the snow! Curling has a huge demographic problem. It doesn't help that this is probably the weakest field ever
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| 02-23-16 07:37PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
Make no mistake, Jones is still the favorite and best team here by a good margin, Carey might be flying at this stage, but when it comes down to the playoffs, I suspect she won't have what it takes, will be interesting to see who the 2 other teams are, my money's on Einarson and McCarville, doubtful they will win too.
Last edited by Stoner on 02-23-16 at 07:39PM
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