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04-24-16 12:58PM |
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THORDAL
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Nov 2013
Location:
Posts: 11 |
8 ender
Does any one know thd odds of getting an 8 ender?
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04-24-16 08:37PM |
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averagecurler
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jan 2016
Location:
Posts: 21 |
The problem I see in trying to calculate this type of thing is you need set odds. If you take a bunch of noobs and put them on the ice against some seasoned players I'd say the chances of the experienced players getting an 8 ender is much higher than if they were playing an equally matched team.
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04-24-16 09:39PM |
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THORDAL
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Nov 2013
Location:
Posts: 11 |
I was able to find out that the odds of a hole in one in golf is 12000 to 1 but I could not find the odds of an 8 ender
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04-25-16 09:02AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Impossible to accurately calculate, because unlike Golf, curling has an opponent on the ice.
It's not just how well and accurately and lucky you are with your shot, it's how unlucky (or unskilled) your opponents are, the tactical situation in the game at the beginning of the end (you're never going to see a team up 4 in the last end give up an 8...unless they miss 6 takeouts...vanishingly unlikely), etc.
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04-25-16 09:45AM |
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ngm
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 272 |
The OCA had 57 8-enders reported to it this season.
Come up with a reasonable guess of the number of ends by clubs in the OCA this season.
There's your estimate.
Having been on the good side of an 8-ender I can say that they are not really achievements, per se. They are more like events that happen to you.
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04-25-16 11:05AM |
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TJNCJ
Swing Artist
Registered: Nov 2008
Location:
Posts: 209 |
My club is having it's 50th anniversary next year and still have not recorded an 8 ender. I estimate there has been between 125,000 and 160,000 ends played during that time.
We have had multiple state champions, national medalists and HPP curlers, so I don't think it is because we lack talent.
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04-25-16 11:37PM |
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MBTuck
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 82 |
quote: Originally posted by ngm
The OCA had 57 8-enders reported to it this season.
Come up with a reasonable guess of the number of ends by clubs in the OCA this season.
There's your estimate.
Having been on the good side of an 8-ender I can say that they are not really achievements, per se. They are more like events that happen to you.
This is very confusing. You suggest there were 57 8 enders this season? I don;t believe that is possible. Maybe in its existence?
I don't think 8 ender's can be calculated with odds. And if it did it would definitely be different for everyone.
Also having great curlers doesn;t necessarily mean a better chance at an 8 ender. You usually need the right opposition, or the right situation in a game or even the right ice conditions (good or bad).
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04-26-16 02:05AM |
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On The Nose
Drawmaster
Registered: Apr 2014
Location: In the House
Posts: 608 |
What I want to know is what percentage of teams who score an 8-ender go on to LOSE that game...
I suppose we'll have to figure out the odds of scoring an 8-ender first (which, the future being unpredictable, and not necessarily based on the past, is really impossible).
Heh...
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04-26-16 10:03AM |
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ngm
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 272 |
quote: Originally posted by MBTuck
This is very confusing. You suggest there were 57 8 enders this season? I don;t believe that is possible. Maybe in its existence?
http://ontcurl.com/awards/8-ender/
8 enders are not all that rare in the grand scheme of things considering all the games that get played. Heck, I've gotten one. I've seen another happen on an adjacent sheet. They are certainly very rare from any particular curler's point of view.
quote: I don't think 8 ender's can be calculated with odds. And if it did it would definitely be different for everyone.
Sure they can. I've already said exactly how to do it. Number of 8-enders divided by number of ends played (or number of games played if you like.)
The hard part is coming up with a number of games played. The OCA has 193 clubs. Let's say the average OCA club has 4 sheets. Maybe that's low. Plenty of 3, 4, and 6 sheeters out there. A few with 5. A couple with 8. Let's go with 4.
Suppose a club averages 10 draws a week (this will be low for some but high for others). That gives you a little over 185280 games in a year. There were 57 8-enders last year.
So your 8-ender rate is about 3 in 10000. That's so close to zero that would be pretty close to the probability of an 8-ender in any particular game. A curler would expect to wait over 3000 games before being in a game with an 8-ender, but since an 8-ender is essentially a random event, you shouldn't be surprised to go 6000 to 9000 games before it happens.
So, yeah, most people will never be in a game with an 8 ender. But there are lots of games played and not such a small number of 8 enders happen every year, overall.
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04-26-16 11:37AM |
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biterbar
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 695 |
quote: Originally posted by ngm
http://ontcurl.com/awards/8-ender/
8 enders are not all that rare in the grand scheme of things considering all the games that get played. Heck, I've gotten one. I've seen another happen on an adjacent sheet. They are certainly very rare from any particular curler's point of view.
Sure they can. I've already said exactly how to do it. Number of 8-enders divided by number of ends played (or number of games played if you like.)
The hard part is coming up with a number of games played. The OCA has 193 clubs. Let's say the average OCA club has 4 sheets. Maybe that's low. Plenty of 3, 4, and 6 sheeters out there. A few with 5. A couple with 8. Let's go with 4.
Suppose a club averages 10 draws a week (this will be low for some but high for others). That gives you a little over 185280 games in a year. There were 57 8-enders last year.
So your 8-ender rate is about 3 in 10000. That's so close to zero that would be pretty close to the probability of an 8-ender in any particular game. A curler would expect to wait over 3000 games before being in a game with an 8-ender, but since an 8-ender is essentially a random event, you shouldn't be surprised to go 6000 to 9000 games before it happens.
So, yeah, most people will never be in a game with an 8 ender. But there are lots of games played and not such a small number of 8 enders happen every year, overall.
http://i.imgur.com/SF8MzIP.gif
"So your telling me there's a chance"
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04-26-16 11:47AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
quote: Originally posted by TJNCJ
We have had multiple state champions, national medalists and HPP curlers, so I don't think it is because we lack talent.
Perversely, I suspect it is *less* likely that a talented curling team is going to give up an 8 ender.
- They aren't going to miss all their hits
- The Skip will notice the situation sooner and strategize
Now, that is balanced by the fact that, presumably, a talented team against an untalented one would be more likely to put the untalented team into a spot where an 8 is possible.
However, a team that knows they are playing 'above their class' will tend to play a game that is likely to avoid an 8 ender as well, as they would deliberately "play smallball", ie not try to score a big end, just focus on keeping the other team from blowing them out.
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04-26-16 12:10PM |
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ngm
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 272 |
quote: Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Perversely, I suspect it is *less* likely that a talented curling team is going to give up an 8 ender.
On the other hand...
A talented team might be more likely to take on more risk when down in the score, because they have confidence in making the last shot to get 1 in a good position to score.
Which, if they then miss, could result in the 8 against them.
Such as here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvAVeVDyto (N.Ont. finals)
and here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvAVeVDyto (2006 Players')
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