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05-05-16 09:51PM |
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Kiwi
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Dec 2003
Location:
Posts: 33 |
Gotta say even though I have no real idea of the horse analytics you guys are talking about, I'm loving the analysis and arguments! #DerbyZone
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05-05-16 10:34PM |
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431 |
Making my bets tomorrow. That way I won't change my mind 87 times. Such a hard year. I have 10 horses to finish third in my trifecta. Can't bet the superfecta unless they have a ten cent bet because I feel the need to press the "all" button for fourth.
Going to need some big odds to finish 2nd and 3rd to make any money. But this year could be the year that the payouts are huge if you just throw out the top 5.
My picks to win, on top of the exactor (CN) and tri - Creator, Nyquist, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit (3/13/14/17). 8 horses underneath on the exacta and then those 8 with 10 under on the tri. Can't box that many horses so just doing wheels. Probably one of those years when I hit both and lose money. Good news is I cashed in poker tourny again today so up for the week.
JH
p.s. Destin is in the mix
p.p.s. yep, three cashes this week, think I am getting the hang of this poker thing
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05-06-16 02:21PM |
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curlky
Drawmaster
Registered: Oct 2013
Location:
Posts: 559 |
quote: Originally posted by jhcurl
Making my bets tomorrow. That way I won't change my mind 87 times. Such a hard year. I have 10 horses to finish third in my trifecta. Can't bet the superfecta unless they have a ten cent bet because I feel the need to press the "all" button for fourth.
Not sure about true off track, but at Churchhill and at twinspires.com, you have $0.50 tri, and $1 supers, and $1 super-hi5s.
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05-06-16 02:51PM |
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Phil_D
Drawmaster
Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629 |
No .10 superfecta for the Derby.
If you aren't already signed up, check out Xpressbet or TVG for placing wagers online. They have some specials where they match your deposit...if you're going to be betting a decent amount it's worth it, the match should fund bets for The Preakness (unless you clean up on the Derby).
__________________
Recreational curler & resident armchair curler at Windy City Curling Club.
Co-host of the NerdCurl podcast & occasional blogger.
http://www.nerdcurl.com
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05-06-16 08:42PM |
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431 |
No superfecta bet for me. Big swing and a miss for Tuck in the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel's Valentina did not perform well.
The online betting options would be dangerous for me. Too easy to lose.
Need a win by Nyquist, Mor Spirit or Mohaymen. Have lots of horses underneath in the exacta and tri.
If you haven't bet yet, here is a live longshot bet. Win/place/show on Tom's Ready. Dallas Stewart has delivered a long shot (30-1+) to the money twice recently. I am considering it as a cover bet. A $10 WPS bet would return over $400 if he wins. Of course, I threw out AmPho last year so take that with a grain.
JH
glad I didn't bet the Oaks
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05-07-16 12:07AM |
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Phil_D
Drawmaster
Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629 |
I like to keep it relatively simple. It's worked for me in the past.
Gun Runner, Nyquist, Outwork, Mor Spirit. Exacta/Trifecta/Superfeta (all $1 boxed).
I know it would be wiser gambling-wise to do some exactas/trifectas with one on top and more underneath, and betting the super is practically a fool's bet. To each their own.
I hope Nyquist is up there but doesn't win it. Love to see him in 4th with my other three up top.
__________________
Recreational curler & resident armchair curler at Windy City Curling Club.
Co-host of the NerdCurl podcast & occasional blogger.
http://www.nerdcurl.com
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05-07-16 08:56AM |
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tuck
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613 |
Dang JH and dang Phil...coming in here...making salient points...ruining all my fun...dang them.
I did put in the superfecta bet I posted earlier. Meh. Maybe I get lucky.
I put in a 50 cent trifecta play. I really like Destin and have him to win. I singled him (#9) on top of 2 Suddenbreakingnews, 5 Gun Runner, 8 Lani (just getting greedy for the long odds), 11 Exaggerator, 17 Mor Spirit and 18 Majesto.
It's just my guy Destin on top with pretty much every horse I like except Brody's Cause and Nyquist. I think it cost me $24. If it hits, I'm thinking it pays $2,400.
I have that Curling Zone superfecta bet and a Win bet on Destin and this trifecta play. I'm also partnered up in 3 superfecta bets.
I overdid it again this year. Next year I'll show some restraint.
Good luck to everyone that's playing. If you end up just watching, please do your old friend Tuck a favor and cheer for Destin. Do not shout GO NUMBER NINE at your television. Horses are terrible at math and don't know their numbers. Shout GO DESTIN at your TV.
Ben Tucker
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05-07-16 02:34PM |
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ptg13
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 12 |
Hot tip on Bolo in the race leading up to the Derby... took a flier.
Also, an award winning horse writer - not to be confused with a horses&$^ writer (Tuck) Is telling me to box the following super: exaggerator, suddenbreakingnews, danzing crazy and outwork.
I like this play.. No one is saying Destin.. NO ONE! Doesn't mean I didn't put a flier on him in a future at +1600..
One of my fav gambling days of the year... and Im a degenerate.
https://glenmckenna.wordpress.com/
Last edited by ptg13 on 05-07-16 at 05:00PM
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05-07-16 07:05PM |
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431 |
Chalk/chalk/chalk. Son of Curlin gets second, did I bet him , NO. First, third, fourth for me. Crap.
JH
Exaggerator for the win in the Belmont
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05-07-16 10:02PM |
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B Anderson
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2012
Location:
Posts: 39 |
I love watching this thread every year to watch you degenerates make fools of yourselves. ;-) :-)
-BA
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05-08-16 04:20PM |
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tuck
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613 |
I'm glad you love it, BA. It's all about BA.
I was wrong about everything. I thought we had a vulnerable favorite who wouldn't get the distance. He appeared not to be vulnerable at any point and got the distance in a nice time. I thought this might be the year of huge payouts. The payouts were small to the point of being historic. I thought Todd Pletcher would have Destin primed for a huge effort off a layoff. Destin ran just OK.
In my defense, I lost hundreds of dollars. OK, that's not a great defense.
Mostly I'm pained that Nyquist won. Nothing against the colt. I just lack all respect for the owner and trainer.
Ben Tucker
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05-09-16 08:07AM |
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HotRocks
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2015
Location:
Posts: 960 |
safe betting wins
Betting $100 on a Nyquist- Exaggerator Exactor.. Paid $1500
why would anyone blow money on Destin..?
Preakness next.. Nyquist would be only the second horse to win a Triple Crown undefeated,.. ( Seattle Slew in 1977)
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