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04-03-17 04:59PM |
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GregJP
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 378 |
So what are the odds of Canada going 26-0 overall?
I don't want to jinx Gushue, but I think it's 50/50 that they go undefeated to join Homan.
So I need to estimate the chances of Canada winning an "average" game. (men and women)
Let's go with 87%
0.87^26 = 0.0268
So there's a 2.7% chance that it will happen. Let's go Brad!!!
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04-03-17 05:22PM |
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sternwheeler
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2012
Location: Canoe Cove, PEI
Posts: 411 |
"Great Scot" Murdoch 's draw was heavy and gave up a steal
to Canada , up two more points leading in the fifth end break. safe to think Gushue is in the driving seat with this game? No lead is safe against them wee lads from Scotland... I gather it will be full steam ahead for Gushue and no relinkguishing ANY lead to them....Murdoch will have to change his strategy and take some risks to get back on even terms with his game .....any predictions on outcome?
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04-03-17 06:23PM |
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curlky
Drawmaster
Registered: Oct 2013
Location:
Posts: 559 |
Re: Stats
quote: Originally posted by Noodle
Can someone explain who does the calculations for the stats and why they do not post the results after each shot.Often when they say the stat for a player I'm often wondering how the heck they ever came up with that %
As Grat said, you can find them on the WCF site. Stats are sort of subjective, like judging a score in a judged sport. It can vary from scorer to scorer, event to event. Basically here is how this works.
The percentages are based on the scorer's judgement of how well a player has played the shot called by the skip. Each shot is scored from 0-4, with 0 being a complete miss and 4 being a perfect shot. Bonus points can sometimes be awarded for shots that are particularly difficult being played at a critical point in the game, so a particularly great shot can sometime be awarded 5-6 points.
In a 10 end game, the maximum score is 80 (per player). So, if you get 60 points during a game, you're throwing 75%.
Some problems with the system include teh following:
Sometimes the scorer does not know what shot was called exactly, either because they did not hear, or there were never words spoken or signs given as to what the shot was.
Sometimes teh result of a shot does not matter. FOr example, lets say that I want you to throw a rock and I said, just past centerline at top of house is OK, or if you are heavy sweep it down and bury behind the corner guard and that is OK. Either will work. How do you score that? Are either outcome a 4 out of 4?
I coudl go one, but will stop to not get off topic in this thread
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04-03-17 08:20PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
scotland just wasnt making anything today. easily their worst game of the event
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04-03-17 08:40PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
Re: just because Edin dropped game against Canada , I think
quote: Originally posted by sternwheeler
we will see them later in the week playing for playoff position, and perhaps a rematch game against Gushue the afternoon draw featuring Scotland's David Murdoch vs Canada is not to be missed, nothing is going to be a 'cakewalk" for Gushue
Actually it pretty much is, Gushue dominates these teams.
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04-03-17 08:41PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
Scotland lost to China, wow, how things can change, yesterday China was looking like they were going to lose most of their games and Scotland was looking decent.
Smith are the best team in Scotland right now and it would've been nice if they were here, best young team in the world.
Last edited by Stoner on 04-03-17 at 08:45PM
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04-03-17 08:43PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
For tonight's draw my winners are: Swiss, Japan, Canada and Italy.
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04-03-17 11:26PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
misty1, I'm not sure why you even mention Schwaller as being good for the Swiss, they are ranked behind other Swiss teams and are #66 right now in the world.
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04-03-17 11:28PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
Germany and Japan are tied in the 9th, interesting, too bad it's not viewable.
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04-03-17 11:31PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
Italy wins and keeps the darkest of darkhorses playoff's alive.
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04-03-17 11:43PM |
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curlky
Drawmaster
Registered: Oct 2013
Location:
Posts: 559 |
Well, there are a lot of games left, so a Shuster question. Who are we going to see for the next 6 games, the John Shuster that many people like Tuck on this board have said have turned the corner and are approaching a near elite team, or the one I recall that fared poorly in his young skipping days.
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04-03-17 11:49PM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
quote: Originally posted by curlky
Well, there are a lot of games left, so a Shuster question. Who are we going to see for the next 6 games, the John Shuster that many people like Tuck on this board have said have turned the corner and are approaching a near elite team, or the one I recall that fared poorly in his young skipping days.
Well they have not had a good season and event, so if I had to say, right now they won't be a playoff team.
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04-04-17 05:16AM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
Next 2 draws winners: Sweden, China, Norway, Swiss. Scotland, Sweden, Canada, Norway.
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04-04-17 07:54AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by Stoner
misty1, I'm not sure why you even mention Schwaller as being good for the Swiss, they are ranked behind other Swiss teams and are #66 right now in the world.
with some time and experience they will be very good. they didnt get out of juniors that long ago.
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04-04-17 07:58AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
germany may have lost to japan but there are 2 ends where germany had a real chance to put a lot of pressure on japan and likely steal and let them off the hook.
in the first end baumann was going to guard a rock on the button and ended up mega heavy and sliding right to it. this allowed japan to try and hit and blank but they stuck
in the 5th end germany had them in real trouble for most of the end. sitting with 2 german rocks covering the 4 foot and no real way for japan to score. they had 4th and 5th as well. baumann goes to guard on his last and again misses the shot which allows morozumi access to the rocks and he scores 1.
cant help but feel that if baumann had made those guards both times germany would have ended up stealing on both occasions..at least in the 5th end and there they could have stolen 2
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04-04-17 08:06AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
predictions for wins today:
sweden def. italy
scotland def. switzerland
china def. germany
united states def. norway - this one for me depends a lot on what version of norway and specifically what version of walstad shows up. this team has either been very good or pretty bad in their games. they were great against russia but walstad really struggled. if the norway that played scotland, russia and the netherlands show up they have a good chance at winning. if the norway that played sweden and switzerland shows up they'll lose early.
norway def. japan - same thing as above. i havent been impressed with japan. their 2 wins come against the weakest team s here and an italian team out of sorts. germany had all kinds of opportunity against them last night but didnt take them. if norway plays well they can win. again though, big question what version of them shows up here
china def. canada - as good as canada is doing you cant deny teams have let them off the hook several times this week, with the biggest example being switzerland. china is a team that, when playing well doesnt make a lot of mistakes . im feeling like this could be a loss for canada
scotland def. netherlands
sweden def. russia
canada def. germany
japan def. united states
italy def. russia
switzerland def. netherlands
as far as playoffs go its a make or break day for norway. if they go 0-2 they wont make it. if they go 1-1 they still have a decent shot. if they go 2-0 id say they will get there
Last edited by misty1 on 04-04-17 at 08:09AM
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04-04-17 08:22AM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
Misty1 I think you are right about China vs Canada. Canada has got lucky in a few games, you also forgot to mention Sweden's collapse in the second half against Canada. It should be interesting.
__________________
Well Behaved Women Don't Make History.
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04-04-17 08:39AM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
quote: Originally posted by misty1
germany may have lost to japan but there are 2 ends where germany had a real chance to put a lot of pressure on japan and likely steal and let them off the hook.
in the first end baumann was going to guard a rock on the button and ended up mega heavy and sliding right to it. this allowed japan to try and hit and blank but they stuck
in the 5th end germany had them in real trouble for most of the end. sitting with 2 german rocks covering the 4 foot and no real way for japan to score. they had 4th and 5th as well. baumann goes to guard on his last and again misses the shot which allows morozumi access to the rocks and he scores 1.
cant help but feel that if baumann had made those guards both times germany would have ended up stealing on both occasions..at least in the 5th end and there they could have stolen 2
Well you can always say if they did this and that, but the fact is the good teams make the shots and the lesser team's don't, you also failed to mention that Japan scored 3 in the 9th.
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04-04-17 08:44AM |
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Stoner
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 614 |
quote: Originally posted by misty1
predictions for wins today:
sweden def. italy
scotland def. switzerland
china def. germany
united states def. norway - this one for me depends a lot on what version of norway and specifically what version of walstad shows up. this team has either been very good or pretty bad in their games. they were great against russia but walstad really struggled. if the norway that played scotland, russia and the netherlands show up they have a good chance at winning. if the norway that played sweden and switzerland shows up they'll lose early.
norway def. japan - same thing as above. i havent been impressed with japan. their 2 wins come against the weakest team s here and an italian team out of sorts. germany had all kinds of opportunity against them last night but didnt take them. if norway plays well they can win. again though, big question what version of them shows up here
china def. canada - as good as canada is doing you cant deny teams have let them off the hook several times this week, with the biggest example being switzerland. china is a team that, when playing well doesnt make a lot of mistakes . im feeling like this could be a loss for canada
scotland def. netherlands
sweden def. russia
canada def. germany
japan def. united states
italy def. russia
switzerland def. netherlands
as far as playoffs go its a make or break day for norway. if they go 0-2 they wont make it. if they go 1-1 they still have a decent shot. if they go 2-0 id say they will get there
Surprised you say Scotland will beat the Swiss when the Scot's haven't been that good and the Swiss have.
Norway's lost to 2 of the top teams so you can't say they haven't been that good, just have played 2 tough teams, they aren't losing to the US.
No way can you bet against Canada right now, they are too good and won't lose to China, fact is they are far ahead of these other teams and the chances of them losing even once are slim, Swiss didn't let them off the hook, the Swiss were poor.
You say the US will beat Norway but lose to Japan, strange picks indeed.
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04-04-17 08:53AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by Stoner
Well you can always say if they did this and that, but the fact is the good teams make the shots and the lesser team's don't, you also failed to mention that Japan scored 3 in the 9th.
thats true. but who knows how the game would have progressed if germany made those guards and took their chances earlier. just saying
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04-04-17 08:59AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by Stoner
Surprised you say Scotland will beat the Swiss when the Scot's haven't been that good and the Swiss have.
Norway's lost to 2 of the top teams so you can't say they haven't been that good, just have played 2 tough teams, they aren't losing to the US.
No way can you bet against Canada right now, they are too good and won't lose to China, fact is they are far ahead of these other teams and the chances of them losing even once are slim, Swiss didn't let them off the hook, the Swiss were poor.
You say the US will beat Norway but lose to Japan, strange picks indeed.
scotland were bad against canada yesterday but one bad game doesnt mean you write them off for the event. they actually played well against china but china played better.scotland are a strong team perfectly capable of beating switzerland
norway has been up and down this week, look at the numbers. great percentages in the 3 wins and bad to average in the 2 losses. so what version of norway shows up today.
and yes switzerland did let canada off the hook. benoit made 3 wide open flashes to gift canada extra points and also hit and rolled out on a shot for 2 in 9. and lets not forget the shot for 5 he missed in the first end. the shots benoit missed , for the most part werent hard so im not sure how you;d say switzerland didnt let canada off the hook
canada is playing well but but they arent unbeatable
i say the united states will beat norway but lose to japan yes but those games are pretty even. its just a matter of making a guess on who will win and lose. not because of the incident but because they lost an importan
Last edited by misty1 on 04-04-17 at 09:41AM
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04-04-17 10:37AM |
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guido
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1418 |
pffftttt.
The only game Canada may lose is in the playoffs.
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04-04-17 12:37PM |
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RaiseDoubleFTW
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2013
Location:
Posts: 39 |
Olympic Qual Rules
Just wondering if anyone knows how ties are broken if two or more countries are tied on points for the last Olympic qualification spot.
Being such a big prize I am wondering if they would actually make them play a game for it.
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