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03-30-15 07:15PM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Well....as ways to get healthy go....hanging a 6 in the first certainly qualifies...
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03-30-15 08:25PM |
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CURLogic
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2015
Location: Hill Valley
Posts: 13 |
Just replayed that first end on Curlinggeek, not sure what Italy was trying to do in that end. They must have really, really missed several shots. The strategy from watching the shot results made no logical sense from my humble eye. Congrats USA! Take the mo into the next match.
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03-30-15 10:33PM |
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Phil_D
Drawmaster
Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629 |
I think that's just what they needed after their last two games...not just a win, but a big one. Granted, it looks like Italy made some mistakes and caught an unfortunate pick in that first end, but 6 is 6 any way you slice it.
Hopefully they'll roll with some momentum now and rack up some more in the win column. 5-1 is definitely doable, and it's a long shot but 6-0 is a possibility. Doubtful, but possible.
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03-31-15 08:39AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
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Posts: 1064 |
So, we're at roughly the halfway point of the draw....let's stack up the competition with a particular emphasis on the US Standings...
The Top Dogs are definetely Canada, Norway, and Switzerland. Conveniently, the US has faced them all already. The US gave Canada it's only even mild scare...how much of that was first draw jitters on Canada's part, and how much was wakeup call? Don't know. I expect all three of these teams to have playoff spots when this is said and done.
At the other end of the spectrum, Scotland is all but mathematically eliminated already. The US can put the official nail in the coffin with a win in their game this afternoon. The way Scotland has been playing, if the US doesn't win, something weird happened.
Russia and China are also lagging the field at 1-4. Both teams have the advantage of also having all three of their games against the Power Triumvirate over, so it is likely premature to count them out.
We'll know for sure where China stands by the end of the day today, as China's two games are against two teams in the playoff mix (Czech and the US). 2-0 gets them right back in the thick of it (and probably harms the US's chances), 0-2 puts them looking towards next year.
Russia plays Scotland and should win, and Italy, which is very beatable, so they should be right back in the game by the end of the day today.
Next we have the traditional morass of teams at 3-2 or 2-3. The problem most of these teams have is that they all still have at least 2 games (and most have 3...) against the power three left.
We'll know a lot more by the end of the day today...it's still too early to tell, but the US is in a reasonable position with 6 games to play, they still very much control their own destiny.
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03-31-15 09:20AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
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Lets look at USA's remaining games:
china doesnt appear to be as strong as recent ears so US should be able to handle them
as far as scotland goes...never underestimate a team full of world champions looking to salvage some pride
sweden looks to be back on track. they lost the game to norway but that was really a weird loss and with their backs basically up against the wall themselves they will be even harder to beat
japan is playing well but shuster seems to know how to handle him
czech republic usually plays their best at the end of the week so since thats the second last game that will be a tough one
russia ..really shouldnt be a concern
so really the toughest day is wednesday with japan and sweden. they need to win against china and scotland today because that sweden, japan , czech republic one after the other block will be rough
they can only really afford one more loss probably..which is doable but i think they are looking at 6-5 to be honest.
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03-31-15 11:16AM |
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Norse Curler
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Jan 2015
Location: United States
Posts: 19 |
U.S. team went to worlds to chew bubble gum and shoot the lights out of the rock.............and they just ran out of bubble gum!
GO SHUSTER!
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SKOL
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03-31-15 12:13PM |
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IMWright
Swing Artist
Registered: Dec 2014
Location:
Posts: 206 |
Need two wins today to stay in the hunt. Given China and Scotland's record, it should be doable.
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03-31-15 04:53PM |
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biterbar
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 695 |
That one hurt. ESPN 3 showed the last part of the 10th end. USA sitting four when Murdoch hits and rolls behind the three top shot stones from the 12 foot. Virtually no shot to get it out. Ugh.
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03-31-15 04:57PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
quote: Originally posted by IMWright
Need two wins today to stay in the hunt. Given China and Scotland's record, it should be doable.
Good effort against Scotland but not surprising really that a vet Scot team showed some character today. I suspect Sweden will be too good for them and Japan a really tough game, so their chances seem slim unless one of those two slips into a gigantic tie for fourth.
One of the better US teams in recent years though, they compete well from what little I can see in highlight shots.
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03-31-15 05:18PM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
quote: Originally posted by biterbar
That one hurt. ESPN 3 showed the last part of the 10th end. USA sitting four when Murdoch hits and rolls behind the three top shot stones from the 12 foot. Virtually no shot to get it out. Ugh.
Looked like USA was in great spot to get win and then MacDonald made terrific roll to 4-foot. Shuster had to make double raise for win -- really difficult shot, except if Simmons were throwing it.
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03-31-15 08:01PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
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its looking again like 5 losses might get you something. the teams at 3 or 4 losses are really starting to bundle together and switzerland could very well lose all or most of its last 5 games
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03-31-15 08:37PM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Keep in mind the new WCF rule...if there is a tie between more than 2 teams, only the 2 best LSD results get to play the TB.
So a 4 way tie for 6-5 may not be a ticket to playoffs.
Lame choice on WCF's part.
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03-31-15 09:03PM |
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johnnysmoke
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2002
Location:
Posts: 612 |
Really? If that's true, the WCF has adopted one of the worst rules for competitive play ever put into place by Curling Canada this year for pre-qualifying for the Brier.
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03-31-15 09:07PM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Unfortunately, it's true...
Well...sorta.
They first try and break it with head to head records within the tied teams, if it can be broken, but if H2H does not resolve the issue, then it's LSD.
Tomorrow is the make or break day for the US chances....Japan and Sweden, the two 4-3 teams.
Win them both and they're sitting at 5-4, tied for 4th at worst, with games against CZE and RUS left...one would think they'd be in a destiny controlling situation.
Win just one and it's 4-5 and they'll need to win their last two and hope for some help.
Lose them both and...well...at least there weren't Olympic Qual points on the line...
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04-01-15 10:56AM |
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AlanMacNeill
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064 |
Not *completely*, but for all practical purposes, yeah.
5 losses is likely a bridge too far, barring all the remaining matches falling exactly right (and I'm not even sure it's possible then).
Still...they'll be close to .500 (barring mental collapse from here out)...and they have a couple of games where one shot killed them.
I still like our NATIONAL CHAMPIONS better than the annointed ones.
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04-01-15 12:28PM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
Still a chance for USA, albeit a small one.
If USA wins out vs Japan, China and Russia they finish 6-5.
Sweden would have to lose 2 of Japan, China, Scotland to end at 6-5. Possible but not likely.
Swiss are 5-3 and have Scotland, Norway, Japan. Possible they go 1-2 to finish 6-5 or even 0-3. Swiss vs Scotland is big game for USA.
Japan is 4-3 with Sweden, USA, Norway and Swiss so could easily lose 2 of those, maybe even 3. Japan vs USA will be critical game for both.
Czechs are 3-4 with Italy, Norway, USA, Russia to come. Again, big game for USA vs Czechs.
China at 3-5 would have to win out vs Finns, Scots and Swedes to finish 6-5. Unlikely.
Finns are 3-4 with Russia, China, Canada and Italy to come so they could finish 6-5 too.
Scots at 2-5 could end 6-5 with 4-0 finish but that would have to include wins vs Canada and Sweden. Unlikely.
So there is still some hope that 6-5 gets a tie for 4th. Hard to believe that a DSC could then be used to determine who advances to playoffs.
I still like our NATIONAL CHAMPIONS too
Last edited by dbsdbs on 04-01-15 at 12:34PM
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04-01-15 02:59PM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
...and they're the only team that's beaten the "Pants & Cap" boys. It must be frustrating as hell to be a fan of US Curling...not to mention Mr. Shuster and crew themselves. They really looked good on opening day.
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04-01-15 07:29PM |
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Alice
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2012
Location:
Posts: 324 |
quote: Originally posted by Jimbobogie
...and they're the only team that's beaten the "Pants & Cap" boys. It must be frustrating as hell to be a fan of US Curling...not to mention Mr. Shuster and crew themselves. They really looked good on opening day.
The level of play has risen so high in so many countries, these close games are just a fact of life in the professionalization of the game at world level events. A fact of life. Competitors, fans, coaches, and NGO staffers can't wallow in frustration.
What does the Spirit of Curling say about a well played shot regardless of who shoots it? "A joy to behold."
Ringing a cowbell for great shots and great games by our Mens' Champions.
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04-01-15 09:18PM |
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Jimbobogie
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 538 |
Teams with 5 losses are in control of their own destinies-that doesn't often happen. Switzerland still has to play Norway and Finland has to play Canada. Both Norway and Canada are still "Motivated" to get the first spot. It still might not work out-and if it does there'll be one heckofa tiebreaker. Scotland just lost to Canada so that's one less 5-loss team. Ewen MacDonald couldn't make a draw to save his life. It's a little too late now, but they should have moved David Murdoch into the 4th position days ago.
Shuster's 2 up on Japan coming home without hammer.
Alice, you're right. It's great to see the rest of the world playing this well-the lively rocks have contributed to some memorable shotmaking and very high scoring.
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Last edited by Jimbobogie on 04-01-15 at 09:34PM
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04-01-15 09:21PM |
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Phil_D
Drawmaster
Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629 |
A big win for the US, and a big loss for Japan.
Even though their playoff hopes are slim at best I'm glad to see them not going down without a fight.
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Recreational curler & resident armchair curler at Windy City Curling Club.
Co-host of the NerdCurl podcast & occasional blogger.
http://www.nerdcurl.com
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04-01-15 09:33PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
if the world curling federation really is using best last rock draw totals then the US might be screwed anyway
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