Registered: Sep 2011
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Current Churchill Downs weather forecast is Partly Cloudy, 65 degrees for Saturday. 10% chance of rain.

Wednesday - Friday are forecast as dry, as are Sunday - tuesday, so that says the track should be dry and good.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Hoppertunity won the Rebel in mud. He was closely chased by Tapiture and Ride On Curlin.

The Kentucky Oaks runs on Friday and I'm better with the fillies.

Untapable is the choice of anybody and everybody that knows anything about horses. She'll be even money or worse. No betting fun there. But here's some food for thought:

Untapable is trained by Asmussen who is getting picked on by PETA...some of it deserved and some of it is witch hunting. Because of this, he will be taking all of his horses off of thyroid medicine. Now, none of his horses have thyroid conditions...they just feel much better when it is in their food. Bob Baffert went through this a couple of years ago and he's a very good trainer.

Also, Untapable's times are not that impressive...she's just impressive to watch and explosive.

Look for a long shot named My Miss Sophia. Untapable will most likely win the race, but the early odds on My Miss Sophia are a healthy 12 to 1 and her Beyer speed numbers are exactly those of Untapable. Maybe put the two in an exacta box. Maybe just play the hunch and bet My Miss Sophia.

With double digit odds, Sophia is excellent for the Win/Place/Show bets: $2 to win, $2 to place and $2 to show. If she gets third, you'll likely end up with your money back. If she gets second, you cash two of your three tickets and can buy a round of drinks. If she wins, you cash all three tickets and have a nice supper.

Ben Tucker

(welcome home from the cruise, Jeffy...hope it was great)

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Registered: Feb 2013
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Kentucky Derby may be most boring event that continues to get national tv coverage every year...

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

California Chrome has arrived at CD. Asmussen does the same thing as almost every other trainer. Every horse in the Derby will be treated with Lasix.

CC would only be the 4th california bred to win the Derby. He either wins or does not hit the board, just have to figure out how to bet that.

Live longshot - Vicar's in Trouble. Not a great final work but Maker knows what it takes and Rosie adds another angle.

Final entries and post position draw tomorrow. They added 4 AEs this year so there will be a full field of 20.

JH
time to find my deep closers

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Nobody talking about Samraat, that's good. He has the heart of a champion, distance no problem, as long as he keeps them in front of him this thing is over, do think CC will be tough, take those two up down and around. Thank me later. Or just do what Tuck says. Tuck your picks please.

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Oh heck, I don't know just yet. After today's post position draw and the Morning Line numbers, I'll probably have some thoughts. Right now I'm just throwing out some of the horses I don't like and putting stars by a couple of ones I do like.

At first glance...and second and third glances...it sure looks to be all California Chrome. Seems like a superhorse to me, but I've been fooled before.

Vicar's In Trouble looks to have great betting value. He gained 120 Derby points and that's a ton. Still, he's the son of Into Mischief and his sons tend to really slow down after a mile (Goldencents and Vyjack last year). Vicar's mom was sprinter and her father never ran well over a mile. In a 20 horse field, he's the smallest colt...I think. I'm staying away unless the odds just balloon.

Samraat is, most certainly, a Bill Morehouse horse. He has shown the most heart of any horse I've seen run this year and he's from New York. Willy likes horses that try hard and Willy is a homer. I'm not thrilled with the breeding (stamina from the sire and speed from the dam)...I'm not thrilled with how he's been training since the Wood Memorial...I'm just not thrilled.

Anybody can talk bad about anybody's horse in this year's Derby...except California Chrome and his odds will not bring value. That looks to be the keys: Odds and value. Get a good horse at long odds and hope Chrome goes the way of so very many Derby favorites (either overrated, has an off day or gets a bad trip in the huge field).

I'll make up my mind by tonight and then tell all of you the best way to lose your hard earned money.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Nice article in the WSJ giving 6 reasons CC won't win.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles... 827207322.html

Top two for me - 5 favorites since 1980 have won and no California bred has won since 1962 (only 3 have won total).

Saamrat, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin all deep closers. Speed kills in the Derby and CC will be running at the front.

Just have to key CC in the exacta to cover my bets but throwing him out for most of the action.

5pm live draw on NBC Sports for post position. Sherman says he wants a post from 6 to 10.

Only one AE was added, Pablo Del Monte. He will run if there is a scratch prior to 9am on Friday. Big Bazinga is running in the American Turf if Tuck wants to bet him.

Past Performances will be available tomorrow from DRF and Equibase. Then the serious research starts.

JH
My two favorite sporting events of the year, Masters and Derby. Unless the Phightins' are in the Series.

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Something else to know.

If you bet the Kentucky Derby this year, you’ll be paying more to do it: earlier this month, Churchill Downs raised its takeout rates to the maximum amount allowed by law. “Takeout” is the money taken from the wagering pools and used to fund operating expenses and purses; the money left in the pools after the takeout is what is paid out to bettors. Increased takeout rates took effect on April 26, when Churchill began its spring meet. For win, place, and show bets, takeout increased from 16% to 17.5%; for vertical and horizontal exotic wagers like exactas, trifectas, and Pick 4s, the takeout increased from 19% to 22%.

In CT at least, the OTB pays the same as CD. It is a shared pool. I think this is the same everywhere except maybe in ND where the payout odds are transmitted by carrier pigeon.

The way I estimate exacta payouts is odds times odds. CC is 2/1 (4 dollars) and Ride on Curlin is 15/1 (30 dollars), exacta is 120 minus the vig about $90 bucks with the new takeout.

JH
Remember, you need to bet big to win big.

Last edited by jhcurl on 04-30-14 at 04:12PM

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Ouch! JHCurl's live longshot gets great value from the morning line (30 to 1) but draws the #1 post. Starting on the rail runs the risk of lots of horses banging you into it. Tough break.

That's OK. JH will find his closer. I'm doubting he'll stay with Vicar's In Trouble although Rosie is the jockey and could make history as the first female jockey to win The Derby.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Sorry to be boring, but I like the favorite. Kinda like picked Brady Clark in the Mixed, but I'm going with California Chrome. Now the question will be: How do I make any dang money on short odds?

I divided the field into Horses That I Love (1), Horses That I Really Like (4), Horses That I'm Afraid Of (6) and Horses That I'm Throwing Out (9).

I'm seeing two ways that I could play this:

I could put a Win bet on California Chrome at around 3 to 1 odds. Then I'd place two equal sized Win bets on my next two horses that carry what I perceive as value at these odds. That would be late closers in Ride On Curlin (15 to 1) and Danza (10 to 1). Then if Chrome wins, I'll break even...but if the others win, I'll get a good payday.

OR:

I can box up the one Horse That I Love with the four Horses That I Really Like. A $1/five horse trifecta box would cost me $60. If I cash, it should be 4 figures...unless Chrome finishes 4th or worse and the others win it for me...then it could be really good. A $1/five horse superfecta bet would cost me $120. Now that might really get fun, especially if Chrome doesn't get first place.

So here is what I'm doing. I'm telling you exactly so you can call me an idiot on Saturday night (but I'll be having fun so I won't care what you call me).

I am boxing California Chrome, Ride On Curlin, Danza, Hoppertunity (6 to 1) and Chitu (20 to 1) in a trifecta box and a superfecta box. I'm leaving out Wicked Strong and Samraat and Vicar's In Trouble and Wildcat Red...even though I'm tempted to fit them in somehow.

I'm also avoiding my natural greed sense and leaving out We Miss Artie and Commanding Curve...even though they are 50 to 1 each and would make the payday much larger and even though they are both bred to run all day and all night.

Chrome, Curly, Danza, Hopps and Chitu. If any of those 5 make up the top 3, I'm cashing big. If any of those 5 make up the top 4, I'm buying rounds.

Bennet Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Not waiting until Saturday night, Tuck ,you're an idiot. But you did just save some money with the scratch of Hoppertunity.

Actually made my picks easier as well.

I am keying Cali Chrome on top of an exacta and a trifecta. Using Danza, Wildcat Red, Candy Boy and Ride on Curlin underneath. WPS on Candy Boy and ROC.

CC just looks too good on paper, only way he doesn't win is if he gets a bad trip. So the saver bet is box the four above (Da,WR,CB,ROC) without CC.

Got the past performances printed, need to study those a bit.

JH

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Even harder than picking the winner is picking the horse that finishes last. A few years ago the horse I picked for last actually won (mine that bird). So, anyone can play since it is mostly just guessing. The horse must cross the finish line.

I am taking Harry's Holiday.

JH
still waiting on Willy's picks

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

After further research, I have narrowed it down to 5 horses that have a chance to win. So, I will play CC on top and underneath since he is most likely to win. The other 4 - Danza, Intense Holiday, Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong. These 5 will feature prominently in my bets. Late closers in the 3rd spot in my Tris are Wildcat Red and Medal Count.

The pace should be true this year so don't think anyone will steal it from the front. That is why Tuck is an idiot, Chitu will be first or second until they hit the stretch, probably won't finish top 10.

With the Hoppertunity scratch, everyone outside the 11 post will move in one. Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday gain the most.

JH
If you bet on every horse you will cash a ticket

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Hoppertunity scratched, as I learned first in the CurlingZone. Bruised hoof. Baffert is a good trainer and not going to numb it with Novocaine, which could really injure the horse (Assumsen would do it).

Stupid horse racing is going to melt my brain.

Now JH shoots holes in my Chitu pick of my favorite 5! Hey, you can shoot holes at any picks in this race. I like Intense Holiday as well, but he's only hit the board is 4 of his 8 starts and 12 to 1 is not value for those stats. (His Beyer Speed Numbers are climbing nicely and he's training great).

I like Medal Count as well (mostly because he'll be the last Derby starter for the impressive sire Dynaformer who passed away this year), but in his only two races on dirt he lost one by a 1/4 mile and lost the other by a 1/2 mile.

So arguing about horses, their styles, their chances and the value given by the odds is fun.

Now I have to sit down and melt my brain to replace Hoppertunity. I feel sorry for the people connected to this horse. Having a Derby horse with a decent chance has to be a thrill, but it's not happening for them this year.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

I was trying to figure out how Hoppertunity would not be in the top 4 now we know. Still everybody is overlooking Samraat, I like this horse (a lot) and not just because it will balance the Utica City Budget, but just Because! I may be wrong, but if I'm right its a game changer. Not Really, the game changer was marrying a North Dakotan. Samraat wins I'll give you the rest shortly. By the way its a 6 figure game changer! Tuck and JH forgot more about horse racing then most people will ever know!

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

OK, I am absolutely torn between Wildcat Red and Commanding Curve.

Wildcat Red is a very good horse and has that kind of grit and fight that Willy likes so much. He has speed on his father's side and stamina on his mother's side and I like that type of breeding. Alas, his odds are only 15 to 1.

Commanding Curve is huge longshot at 50 to 1. His father is a son of AP Indy and his mother comes from Lion Hearted. Good stamina on both sides. His Beyers aren't quite good enough, but they are definately trending up...so he could get there. He was bumped hard at the start of the Louisiana Derby and then finished fast going 4 wide on the turn to finish an impressive fourth. He is a closer. He's got great odds. He'd really make a trifecta or superfecta pay big.

My gut tells me to go with Wildcat Red. My gut says that Commanding Curve is just greed seeping into my thinking. Maybe I should dump Chitu.

So I'll have a trifecta box and a superfecta box that has California Chrome, Danza, Chitu, Ride On Curlin and Wildcat Red. It'll cost me $180.

Bennet Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

For those Willy fans reading, one way to bet Samraat would be a "ladder bet". At 15 to 1, the horse is holding great value.

To ladder a bet is a lot like the Win/Place/Show bet, but you weigh it heavy for third and second place. So for instance:

You tell the guy at the window that you'd like to bet the 11th race at Churchill Downs (The Derby). $10 to win, $20 to place and $40 dollars to show on the 6 horse (Samraat). Then you had the guy $70. If Samraat gets 3rd, you're happy. 2nd or 1st and you're thrilled.

Maybe I should ladder Commanding Curve.

As for what I know about horses: it ain't much and seems to be getting less and less as the dollars slip away. I've actually SEEN Willy play horses. It ain't what you know...it's what you win...and he wins. He just messes around until he has an insight that few others have and then bets big.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Oops. I forgot the tough part. Who will finish last?

I think We Miss Artie is the worst dirt horse in the field. I think he's a fine horse for turf over very long distances. That being said, his owners seemed to field too many questions on why they entered him...so his jockey will be under strict orders not to pull up if out of the money.

I'll be bold and take a very good horse to finish last: Candy Boy. Many very smart horsepeople are picking him to be in the top three. I think he could be...but if he's midpack around the far turn and doesn't fire, the jockey won't push him. I think I see a little bit of Quit in this horse.

Anybody with half a brain will now immediately wager on Candy Boy finishing in the top three. This is a hard question.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Crap.

CrapCrapCrap.

I went back and reviewed Commanding Curve's bloodlines and they look really good. His sire, Master Command, was great but developed late. Curve is trending up if you believe Beyer numbers.

I watch a replay of the Louisiana Derby and Curve got a horrible trip...yet he was still closing when he got up for a clear third place.

50 to 1? That the type that makes exactas and trifectas fun. I have to figure out a way to put him into my plays without spending any more money. I might drop Chitu. I'll sleep on it.

Ben Tucker

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Here's my theoretical (unless I actually get to the OTB place...) wagers on this race:

$20/Show on Ride on Curlin...because curling, and that's the only reason...I don't think there's enough here to surprise me...but...a Show result seems possible.

$2 Trifecta Box on California Chrome, Intense Holiday, and Wildcat Red....that's $12 spent. Haven't heard much on Wildcat Red, but I like the post number, and it just feels right.

$5/win on Uncle Sigh because nobody else is backing him, but he seems to have something that says horse from nowhere.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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I toyed with the idea of dropping Chitu, but this breeding of "speed from sire and stamina from mare" is my latest kick and I'm not ready to give it up just yet.

I toyed with idea of dropping Ride On Curlin, but I like that he's improving every race and has blown the doors off on this track.

Ain't no way I'm dropping Danza. Love his breeding. Love his improvement. Love his workouts.

I even toyed with the idea of dropping California Chrome, but I think we're looking at a superhorse who might lose the Belmont, but might never again lose under 10 furlongs.

I could save one ton of money by "keying" horses in trifectas or superfectas, but I know myself. If I had the right horses but not together on the right tickets, it would drive me more insane than I already am insane.

So it's out with Wildcat Red (speed from sire, but I'm betting not quite enough stamina from mare) and in with Commanding Curve (stamina on both sides and just praying for enough speed to hit the board).

So my boxes will be California Chrome, Danza, Ride On Curlin, Chitu and Commanding Curve. If Curve hits the top and Chrome doesn't, it should be a huge ticket.

Anybody with half a brain will now go out and bet on Wildcat Red. Looks like an exacta box with Candy Boy would make you wealthy and able to humiliate me at the same time.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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I thought Vicar's In Trouble was a "toss out" as soon as he drew the 1st spot in the starting gate. Being the smallest horse in the huge field and then getting trapped along the rail seemed like a death sentence.

However, upon more study...I'm not so sure.

Vicar is trained by Mike Maker. Harry's Holiday (picked by JH to finish last and that's a really good pick) is also trained by Mike Maker. Harry's Holiday is the second post position.

So if I was Mr. Maker, I'd realize that Harry got no chance in this race while Vicar has a very good chance. I'd have Harry protect the little horse. In fact, I'd have the jockey for Harry's Holiday push hard to the outside right out of the gate. That might bounce around California Chrome in the 5 spot and secure The Derby for Vicars In Trouble.

I still don't like Vicars In Trouble. He is the son of Into Mischief and Vibrant (daughter of the great Vicar). The sons of Into Mischief mostly seem to really tire after a mile. Maybe this horse matches my "speed from dad and stamina from mom" fad, but I'm not going to trust this horse over a 1 1/16 against good horses.

However, JH might want to put him on a couple of tickets.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

California Chrome will win The Derby in a time of 1:59.8

Chrome is owned by two working class stiffs who love horse racing.

They wanted to become owners, but didn't have that kind of money. (Ride On Curlin was a steal at $25,000...most of these horses were purchased for around $300,000)

So they came up with a plan: They wanted to buy a mare on the cheap that had really good bloodlines. They hung around Claiming races until they saw one they liked for a price they could afford ($8,000).

A friend who worked with that mare couldn't believe it was claimed from a race because she was seriously slow. He called one of the guys "a dumbass".

These two guys then took their bargain basement mare to get bred. They didn't have the $25,000 for the stud fee of a top sire, so they went shopping. They found a sire that wasn't a very good racehorse, but had great bloodlines. His fee was normally $2,500, but they negotiated it down to $2,000.

Once their friend heard about this, he called both of them "dumbasses". So they named their partnership DAP...Dumb Ass Partners.

Their silks are a green cap with a purple shirt. On the front and back of the purple shirt is green silhouette of a donkey.

How can you not love this horse?

Ben Tucker

Last edited by tuck on 05-02-14 at 07:30PM

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

You can't even call it Dumbass Stables because they only have one horse.

Coolmore Stables have over a thousand horses. Godolphin Racing has thousands of horses. The Ramseys have hundred of horses. These guys have one.

If he wins, I'm buying a shirt. I look great in purple and green. The donkey would fit me perfectly.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

California Chrome's parents are Lucky Pulpit and Love The Chase.

His grandfathers are Pulpit and Not For Love. His greatgrandfathers are AP Indy, Cozzene, Mr. Prospector and Polish Numbers.

I think...I hope...he can get the distance. All four of his grandfathers defined stamina in their day.

I started this thread talking about a relaxed jockey on a relaxed horse doing 100mph in the San Felipe. I hope tomorrow is an replay. I might make more money if he finishes last, but I want a new superhorse.

Ben Tucker

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