Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

It is WAY too early (by three weeks) to talk about the Kentucky Derby. We have Mixed and Worlds and curling left to do.

Still, I wanted to bring attention to the very few that care:

Google the San Felipe Stakes and watch the jockey onboard the winner, California Chrome. CC will not go the extra distance of The Derby. He's the son of a sprinter father and a sprinter mother...but watch the jockey.

Victor Espinoza gets a great break from the gate. Instead of pulling back on the reins with all of his might, he simply rests his hands calmly on the horse's neck and Chrome settles down...the others catch up.

Remaining very, very, very still on the backstretch, Espinoza keeps his horse in the lead but very relaxed. In the far turn, he uses just his hands to begin urging Chrome into another gear.

Perfectly timed, the jockey goes to the whip on the righthand side to get a perfect change of lead hoof coming out of the turn and into the homestretch. Once California Chrome hits high gear...just twice with the whip...Espinoza just shows him the whip and lets the horse sprint out to a dominating win over a pretty good field.

1 1/16 in 1:40. Dang...what a ride.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
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Did you know that a colt out of Curlin is trying to get into the Derby? Ride On Curlin is the name. Don't think he has enough points to get in yet. Yes, points, they changed the concept that the top twenty in points are qualified.

JH

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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Dang it, JH...we don't need no Points Talk here. Sorry, Mr. MacNeil.

I have a pony for JH this weekend:

Aqueduct in Queens is running the famous Wood Memorial this Saturday. All the Smart Money will be on the favorites; Uncle Sigh, Samraat and Social Inclusion. Alas, I fall well short of being Smart Money.

A horse named Kid Cruz is coming off an impressive win at 1 1/8 miles. Good time...good genes...son of one of my favorites, Lemon Drop Kid...distance is not problem...late stretch runner which is just what JH likes. 20 to 1? Yep. You can thank me later, Jeffy.

Ben Tucker
I know nothing about horses

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Also this weekend is the Santa Anita Derby. The most interesting storyline there is that a very good curler, Steph Jensen, scored tickets and will be there. I am more than a little bit jealous.

California Chrome will be the favorite. Interesting horse. Sprinter for a father and a sprinter for a mother, Chrome has clicked off some stopwatch-melting times. He's good stamina in his heritage, but you have to go back a few generations to find it. IF he has stamina, we are talking about a SuperHorse here.

I think Chrome is a sprinter and will putting my money on Candy Boy. I'd suggest that you put your money on Hopportunity, because my record in the Santa Anita is quite pathetic.

Ben Tucker
Proud to have given JH a good late closer at a great price...Win/Place/Show, Jeffy?

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Registered: Oct 2002
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Benny, you should have a Blog for racing! Smiling at your picks & passion my friend! Looking forward to the Derby. You should bring your bride to Rumors: they have a great crowd & every year more ladies dress up & wear fund hats. I brought Mom there a couple times before she passed - great memories revisited!!!

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DB
H-B w/ A
Grand Forks, ND USA

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Crap. Kid Cruz is scratched from today's Wood Memorial. I really liked his chances. At the morning line of 20 to 1, I loved his chances. Worst of all, he was everything JHcurl likes in a horse...good breeding...long odds...late runner.

Oh well. I am heading down to Rumors to watch some races with Moogie. (Moogie is my youngest. I didn't name him Moogie. I named him Marcus Connor Tucker, but my sister called him Moogie when he was 3 weeks old and it stuck)

With Kid Cruz out, I'm not seeing any bets that thrill me. That could save me lots of money. Just some trifecta boxes featuring longshots.

California Chrome is, by far, the most interesting horse running today. Neither his father nor his mother were very successful on the track. His father is Lucky Pulpit, son of the great Pulpit, son of the great AP Indy. His mother is a daughter of an unknown Mr. Prospector colt. Chrome is a California colt, so they'll make repeated references to any possible relationship to Swaps...the 1950's Derby winning superhorse and California breeding's only real claim to fame. Chrome is trained by a good old school trainer who used to be Swaps' exercise rider.

We'll know by tonight. If Chrome can prove me wrong and win the Santa Anita Derby with a time at or under 1:49, we might have the next superhorse. He's everything JH dislikes in a horse (front runner, favorite, no chance at the 1 1/2 mile Belmont), but Chrome is interesting.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Nov 2007
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Then why, Mr. Tucker are we betting Candy Boy?

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Benny - don't forget that the Annual Polish Party is today at the Gate. Behave! ))

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H-B w/ A
Grand Forks, ND USA

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Because, Mr. Lucky, 2 to 1 odds don't thrill me...1 to 1 even less...3 to 5 is where Chrome settled, an odd on favorite.

California Chrome destroyed a good field. He clocked the 1 1/8 miles in 1:47.5. That, my friends, is a superhorse. Best Santa Anita Derby time in recent memory.

Needle? Milkshake? Cheating? Doping? I don't think so. Every California trainer was doing the milkshake cheat last decade and this trainer is no different. A spotless record in the last 5 years, however, and this horse looks clean...and very fast. We'll know when they enter the supervised stables at Churchill Downs.

I'm thinking Chrome will be the favorite by a long way. Probably even money in a huge field. Because of the short odds and the huge field, you might want to bet against him. Unless something changes, however, The Preakness already belongs to California Chrome.

A 15 to 1 shot won the Wood in a dang good time. I would have liked to seen Kid Cruz run it. I hope I remember his name when it comes time for The Belmont.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

California Chrome looks like the real deal. Is he going to be as fast on dirt? Hoppertunity also looked good, Baffert returns to the Derby after missing last year.

Wicked Strong ran a very good race in the Wood. Passed the faltering speed in the stretch. Samraat also made a nice run to grab second.

Two losers from the two races - Candy Boy and Social Inclusion. Both will probably not have enough points to make the Derby.

California Chrome will be the favorite for the Derby which makes it easy for me. Throw him out.

JH
no favorites for me

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

So, read an article in the DRF today about synthetic tracks going away. Did not realize that Santa Anita had switched back to dirt. California Chrome will be a short price at the Derby and starting gate position will not matter.

Disappointed in the DRF website as most of the content now is no longer free.

JH

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quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
[B]Dang it, JH...we don't need no Points Talk here. Sorry, Mr. MacNeil.

---

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Registered: Sep 2002
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Ride on Curlin is 23rd and will run in the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Top 4 finishers get points 100, 40, 20, 10. A few others in hunt for points there as well.

Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday also. Have not looked to see which contenders are running there.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Ride on c is entered in the Arkansas derby. A top two finish should get him in but it is a small but very talented field.

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This will be the last bluegrass on synthetic as Keeneland goes back to dirt next year.

Kittens joy has a son running and will win on synthetic. All his kids run great on turf and do pretty well on the ground up rubber.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Canada will be heavily featured in this year's bluegrass. A serious contending horse was bred in Ontario. 2...count 'em, 2...Canadian female jockey likely to ride. One young female trainer making her stakes debut.

Bobby's Kitten looks like a winner in a very full field. They'll pick the 14 starters tomorrow and have 2 or 3 good horses hoping to get in if somebody can't enter.

That cheating bastard, Dutrow, has a horse entered. I'm trusting that they'll keep a close eye on the stables. His horse is named Scotland.

For fans of the TV show Big Bang Theory, Big Bazinga has a good chance here. He's improving.

Casiguapo is very good horse. So is Coastline. Vinceremos won't get very long odds, so I'll probably stay away.

For those who pick horses by their names, Extrasexyhippzter has a cool name and is actually a good horse.

I haven't studied it closely yet, but I'm leaning towards a 4 horse trifecta box with Bobby's Kitten, Casiguapo, Coastline and Vinceremos. I'll probably change my mind 5 times before the post parade and once during the post parade.

Ben Tucker
Lost money last weekend...but not a lot

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Changed my mind. Throwing out Casiguapo and Coastline. Too slow. No top end speed. I'll look for one or two faster horses.

I hit a small exacta on the fillies last weekend to stop the bleeding. Anybody who takes my advice on horses deserves to lose their money.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

California Chrome at 3-1 on the derby future bets looks like a good number if you think he's the elusive super horse. Personally I like Samraat at 30-1 I played him weeks ago at 45-1. Watch the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Sat. Forget about Wicked Strong ( 47.47 half to fast ) they never saw him coming, but watch the guts Samraat shows in beating social inclusion at the wire, in my mind he's still undefeated. Samraat wins Derby!

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Just because I write well does not mean I know what I am talking about. Heck, I even got the wrong Dutrow. Scotland is trained by Tony, Rick's older brother. Rick is the poster child for increasing penalties for doping horses.

Willy is insane. Samraat has no chance. OK, maybe a chance...but Willy is showing his hometown bias.

Arkansas Derby also goes this Saturday. The place I watch horseracing doesn't cover Oaklawn Park, so I don't give it much attention until after it's been run.

Tapiture will probably be the favorite. He's an OK horse that does not seem to be improving.

Ride on Curlin will probably be a longshot and, maybe, a decent bet. A couple of third places this year...finishing behind Tapiture both times. Doesn't look to be much like his father. His mother is a granddaughter of both Secretariat and Northern Dancer. Quite the bloodline. Maybe he'll come on strong. Curlin won the Arkansas...but was on a two race winning streak coming into it.

I'm kinda likin' Baffert's colt, Bayern. Only two races to judge him by, but he beat good horses and had good times (along with nice Beyer Speed numbers...more about those later)

Strong Mandate hasn't won anything since last August (the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga...so Willy will like him...Willy is such a homer), but he has beaten both Tapiture and Ride On Curlin. If given long odds, he has the breeding to be interesting. Not particularly fast, but seems to like long distances.

Conquest Titan, on the other hand, seems to prefer shorter races.

Commissioner is a pretty good horse, but he raced just 3 weeks ago and isn't a great horse.

Danza is trained by the great Todd Pletcher...who can sometimes rush his colts too early in hopes of getting more Kentucky Derby entries...and that is what this looks like.

Ami's Holiday is an interesting horse. He comes out of Ontario. Long layoff scares me, but long odds sucker me in.

I haven't seen the odds yet. They haven't even drawn post positions yet. I think Tapiture not be a good price, so I'll favor Bayern. I'm thinking that Baffert wisely kept him away from California Chrome and the Santa Anita Derby so the colt could pick up points here.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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Weirdness in Keeneland Park, Kentucky.

A good horse wins a race on Friday. His owners talk his trainer into entering the Bluegrass because that winner gets instant stud status with money in his future. The slightly crazy trainer, Dale Romans, agrees to do it. Because of the horse's career earnings, he gets in.

The horse is Medal Count and he just won the Transylvania Stakes...on FRIDAY. He'll be racing this Saturday. That is not the only craziness: He's the Morning Line second choice at 9-2.

Another trainer, Asumusen, is fighting off allegations of abusing horses. PETA took some spy film of his assistant trainer being tough on horses. The film is pretty graphic and the evidence is damning. Still, given enough time and PETA's zealous streak, I'm sure they could eventually prove that Jon Mielke is mean to children. (those who know Jon will also know that Jon is the nicest guy on the planet and never mean to children)

I don't yet know how I'm going to play the Bluegrass. A "trifecta" is when you have to pick the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the exact order. A "trifecta box" is where you pick 3 or 4 or more horses and bet every possible finish of those horses (6 possible so a $1 trifecta box with 3 horses costs $6) Trifectas are fun because you can win $100 on a $1 bet. A 4 horse trifecta box costs $24. Those are only fun if you put in some longshots and get paid $1,000. Big fields of 12 or more horses and some longshot getting second or third place makes for some big paydays.

For instance: The Wood Memorial had a decent longshot winning with two of the favorites getting second and third. If one was smart enough, the trifecta paid about 190 to 1. Way cool if you got $190 for a $6 box, but getting the right three is tough. $190 for $24 isn't as cool, but a much better chance at cashing.

So I'm thinking about boxing Bobby's Kitten (3 to 1), Gala Award (5 to 1), Big Bazinga (20 to 1) and either Casiguapo (30 to 1) or Coastline (8 to 1).

JH likes to "key" a trifecta. That is when you take a couple of horses that you love (in this case, Bobby's Kitten and Gala Award) and then have the entire remaining field be the third horse. That would only cost $22 in this 12 horse field. If any longshot came in third, JH would be smiling to the tune of a couple hundred bucks. However, if that longshot beats just one of my horses and gets second...well, JH isn't buying the next round because he just lost $22.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
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This year's Derby Trail has been filled with races where the top 3 or 4 horses in the betting have been finishing in the top 3 or 4. There has not been any fun trifectas. For instance, the Santa Anita Derby had 3 very good horses and 8 longshots. The 3 very good horses finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The $1 trifecta only paid out a paltry $8. If you had those three horses in a 3 horse trifecta box, your $6 bet only netted you $2. If you used 4 horses in your box (you had hope that your longshot would crack the top three spots), you turned $24 into $8...a $16 loss...but you can proudly tell the wife that you hit the trifecta.

Weirdness also in the Arkansas Derby. Three very good horses will have to carry 122 total pounds (that's the weight of the jockey and his/her saddle...them jockeys have to be light) while the rest of the field only has to carry 118 pounds. This is significant.

What is most significant: The horses I like the most only have to carry 118 pounds. Bayern and Ride On Curlin get a weight advantage? Mine is not to reason why, mine is but to bet and cry.

The odds on Bayern aren't good enough to warrant a straight Win bet. One trick would be to bet Ride On Curlin to Win/Place/Show. That means you bet $2 on each of those for a total of $6. If he wins, you cash all three. Second is pretty good and you might get your money back if he places third.

I, however, will be looking at an "exacta box". That means I'll be betting on those two to finish first and second in either order. A $20 exacta box will cost me $40 (you could do it for $4) and I'm thinking that it could win me a grand (or you $100 of $4). Bayern should be the favorite around 3 to 1 and Curly should be around 19 to 1. I'm likin' it...not lovin' it.

Ben Tucker

PS Which horses have to carry which weights is determined by past wins and gender and, sometimes, age.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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If you hang around horses and bettors long enough, you'll start to hear about Beyer Speed Figures.

Andrew Beyer is the best horse racing writer of all time. He writes for the Washington Post...or, at least, he used to and maybe still does. Andy had this strange thought that the fastest horses should win the races most of the time.

Now using a stopwatch over comparable distances isn't very helpful. Lots of races start out really slow, so the finishing time doesn't accurately reflect the true speed of the winner. So Beyer invented some complex algebra to give each horse a speed rating for each race.

Any horse with a triple digit Beyer number is an extremely good horse. There are now other speed figures claiming to be more accurate than the Beyer numbers (Bris or Equibase). Europe uses a similar system that appears just to add 15 points to the Beyer, but Europe is hard to figure out in anything.

Once in a great while a superhorse will post a 120 Beyer. California Chrome hit a jaw dropping 107 in the Santa Anita Derby. Dang good for a young colt.

I'm not the most experienced nor the most knowledgeable in this stuff. It has been my limited experience that Beyer numbers are most helpful for races at a mile or a little bit shorter. Classic races of 1 1/4 seem to be less about full speed and more about tactical speed. However, horses without at least a decent Beyer number never seem to win the big races unless somebody is cheating.

Ben Tucker
IF Beyer numbers had existed in 1973, Secretariat would have penciled out at an unbelievable 139 in the Belmont Stakes

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Arkansas Derby weirdness continues. Bayern goes off as the favorite and finishes fourth. Drops to 26 in the points list for the Derby, probably won't make the field. Ride on Curlin gets second and moves to 12th on the list for the Derby.

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Constitution is out of the Derby. Would have been Pletcher's best shot to win. That puts Uncle Sigh in the Derby. He hit the board in the Wood Memorial. Should be a good price and a strong closer, will look at him for my exotics.

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JH
Go Phils, got my WS bet on you

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Registered: Sep 2002
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Time to start the serious research. This Saturday is the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.

California Chrome had a strong work in California. Ships in on Wednesday I think. Candy Boy had the strongest work on Saturday at CD. Others in the mix for me based on work - Danza, Ride on Curlin, Intense Holiday, Wicked Strong.

As far as betting, it is hard to look past CC so will most likely be playing a lot of keyed exactas and tris to find some value. Unless CC really flops, he hits the board. Hoping he goes off at 3-1 so there is still some decent payouts.

JH
need to check the weather forecast, are there any mudders?

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