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12-15-17 02:27PM
Manitoba Legend is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Manitoba Legend Click here to Send Manitoba Legend a Private Message Find more posts by Manitoba Legend Add Manitoba Legend to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
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How will Rachel Homan fare @ Olympics

Wild guess = really, really well.

However - here's the skinny. I'll measure her wins and losses by how many poor games she has. When I'm talking poor games I'm talking games were Rachel & Emma's %'ge total doesn't equal 150% collectively.

In the round robin that might equal 1, maximum 2 games. If the Homan side are playing fawns (ie. not Top 4 teams) at the time they have a high degree of pushing thru with wins. Look at Jones last Olympics - she & Kaitlyn had a few sub 150% games but pushed thru mainly cuz Jones was maniacal in not missing key shots or protecting open ends.

I've used the term "shot-pelting" before and there's no one it applies more to than Team Homan. They will just suffocate you with a continual barrage of made shots - until the opposition finally caves in and allows a big end - or a key steal.

If Rachel has a sub .150% game vs. Sweden, Scotland, even Switzerland she stands a 50/50 chance of losing that game.

So with all said - she probably finishes the round robin with either zero or 1 loss.

Biggest challenge will obviously be in the playoff round - some opponents, particularly Muirhead tend to get hepped up and curl above their heads (not just Eve but Anna Sloan, too). That's were someone like Muirhead, Hasselborg or even Tirinzoni can catch Homan sleeping. It will take herculean efforts but its doable - so long as Rachel & Emma manage to drop below their so-called Mason-Dixon line of 150%

I look for Rachel to score no more than 1 loss in the round-robin - but in the playoffs all bets are off - particularly if they draw Eve Muirhead in the semi-final (like Jones did, and Jones was full money to withstand some of the amazing antics Eve put on her during their memorable semi-final (look at the youtube of that game if you don't understand what I'm saying)

I can't see Rachel & co. slumping in 2 straight playoff games so I suspect if she can get by the semi-final (particularly vs. Muirhead) she'll be a fairly heavy favourite to win Gold.

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12-22-17 08:29AM
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We shall see - I have to believe that Team Homan was playing possum all season. However, Eve really really wants that gold medal so will present a challenge. Don't underestimate the Koreans either. However, Team Homan has the shots and hopefully will bring home gold.

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12-22-17 12:10PM
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Homan will have a better record at the Olympics than Englot will at the Scotties. When the defending champ cannot go to the Scotties in the Olympic years, then Team Canada should be scrapped for that year. Why would a non scotties winner even want to wear someone elses team canada on her back?

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12-22-17 01:14PM
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quote:
Originally posted by decade
Homan will have a better record at the Olympics than Englot will at the Scotties. When the defending champ cannot go to the Scotties in the Olympic years, then Team Canada should be scrapped for that year. Why would a non scotties winner even want to wear someone elses team canada on her back?


I agree partially.
There is 4 years of planning , knowing the Olympics are coming. It would be easy to change the dates of the Scotties to a week after the brier. If this can't be done, why not have the finalist of the rotr be T.C. It is undoubtedly the most competitive competition in Canada.
Or, at least have the 2 teams playoff to decide. Maybe add the 2 other highest ranked teams and decide T.C. on a weekend. At least you would have to win to be T.C.
And staying on topic, Team Homan will win gold.

Last edited by guido on 12-22-17 at 01:17PM

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12-22-17 03:43PM
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Why would anyone compare Englot to Homan?

Englot is a veteran provincial campaigner who, at 54 has been re-charged with some young bucks - a fairly powerful team when the wildly inconsistent Kate Cameron (3rd) is on her game. Englot herself had the "EVENT OF HER LIFE" at last year's Scotties - but despite winning 2 games vs. Homan and knocking down Rachel a couple times in the gold medal finale, she just couldn't stop Rachel from getting off the canvas and winning a classic last-rock thriller. My guess is that Englot (who for all intents and purposes is a 65 to 75% curler) struggles to have a record over .500, let alone a playoff berth. Kate Cameron cannot even be mentioned in the same sphere as Emma Goldman, and while Englot's front end of Wilson & Westcott are bigger and stronger than Courtney & Weagle they can't stand up to the Homanites in shot percentages.

Homan will have zero to 1 loss in the Olympic round robin.
Englot will endure 4 to 6 losses at the STOH.
Big difference!

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12-24-17 02:31PM
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Homan is of course the favourite going into the Olympics. Being undefeated at the World's has that tendency. However the rest of the world has done a really good job of catching up to Canada in women's curling. Lest we forget until last year Canada had not won the women's World Curling Championship for eight years in a row!

Jen Jones, the best skip of the last fifteen years, won only 1 in 5 efforts.

We've also missed winning the gold more often than we've won it at the Olympics (2-3)

So while there is no doubt that Team Homan will be expected to win, by no one more than themselves, all of the stats tell us they are far from a lock.

The biggest plus on Team Homan is their level of athleticism. Rachel throws it harder and with more control than any other skip in Canada by a wide margin. Emma throws it just as hard, but without quite the same level of control. When you add in the firepower of Joanne Courtney you have an array of weapons that is unmatched by any team in Canada outside the men's game. I keep saying in Canada because there is in fact one team in the world that does have the level of athleticism and firepower of Team Homan and that's Team Sweden with Team Hasselborg. Not only can they throw it just as hard, and just as accurately, they also sweep at a level not often seen in the women's game.

If these team's don't end up in the final I'd be surprised. Team Muirhead and Team Tiranzoni are very good teams and both have big wins on their CV's but they just don't have the same consistency, firepower or sweeping of Team Canada and Team Sweden.

As to who will win the final? Team Homan has got to be the favourite because of their CV. Winning the Scotties is far and away the toughest national championship. Besides Switzerland no other country really has a national championship in the women's game. Homan has three of those and has a gold, silver and bronze in the world's. Team Hasselborg has been to only one world's and didn't medal. Team Homan has also got 6 Grand Slam wins to Hasselborg's none. Finally Team Homan have just come through the most grueling trial by fire in curling. I.e. The Road to the Roar. Even with the closing of the gap that the women's game has seen the toughest field in the sport is still the Canadian team trials. Canada is the one team that goes into the Olympics feeling like the pressure is off. (team Switzerland a close second)

The other aspect where Team Homan has an advantage is in terms of strategy. Because of their use of the tick shot they gain a significant edge when they have the hammer. And because of their firepower, and a steady diet of watching the Canadian men play the runback game, they know how to take on more risk which makes them a better scoring team than Tiranzoni or Muirhead. Again the one team that can match them in this department is Team Sweden. Thanks in no small part to the work they have done with Team Edin who have become the greatest team in the world at runbacks.

So let's hope we see these young superstars of the game match-up in the gold medal final. With good ice conditions it promises to be one of the greatest games in the history of women's curling. More than that if they are in the final and both play up to their abilities it has the potential to be the kind of game that sees the women's game evolve to the next level. I.e. Be more like and closer to the men's game both in terms of strategy and shotmaking ability.

That's my real prediction about these Olympics. Hasselborg and Homan, the Next Gen of women's curling.

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12-25-17 12:00PM
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Excellent insight, JB

Sure as the sun that the two most athletic teams are Sweden & Canada
Bestowing praise on Homan & Hasselborg is the go-to analysis for this year's Olympics

But, don't forget about Eve Muirhead. Her team may not be as athletic or shot-pure as Homan or Hasselborg but Eve is still the greatest trick-shot artist in the game. And she'll get numerous opportunities as her front end and 3rd will be unable to stand up to Homan and/or Hasselborg.
Don' forget about Silvana T either. She could get on a heater and finish first before the other teams know what hit them - then hit rougher waters in the playoff or final.

Hasselborg's front end may be even more athletic than Homan and that's a credit to them. Mabergs is probably the only curler at the event who can stand up to Courtney in the strength, power and endurance areas. But Maberg, a power curler actually throws lead stones - and I don't believe she has the nuances to compete with Li Weagle. Courtney & Agnes are both super-athletic but I have to give a slight edge to Courtney due to her power and endurance. Sara McManus is probably the 2nd best 3rd at this event, and if Emma M falters she could be best.
Not much to separate Rachel & Anna. Both incredibly athletic, both strong on fundamentals. Obvioulsy, I have to give the edge on focus to Rachel - she's the most focused curler in the game.
Both can throw big weight - but Rachel's nuclear option gives her a big edge via throwing negative ice when ice conditions are iffy.
Finally, the biggest edge for Rachel is that she's a TRUE KILLER - absolutely remorseless while Anna hasn't quite got her mean girl act down pat. She's had numerous examples of letting her prey off the hook in too many situations to count. That's where Rachel dominates.

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12-26-17 12:00PM
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I agree with you, JB42, that Team Homan's athleticism and firepower are currently matched by team Sweden.

The paradox with Team Sweden, however, is their apparent inability to win the big events. The fact they failed to metal in their only World's event and have yet to win a single G.S. event speaks volumes to me. And recently, in November, I'm sure you are aware they ran the table in the Euro. Championship round robin but lost in the finals. It wasn't so much that they lost, but the way they lost as Hasselborg seemed to revert to high school strategic tactics in the last two ends and then proceeded to miss her final shot in both the 9th and 10th ends. No matter how you slice it, the toolbox was empty. And earlier this month they competed in the
Karuizawa International . Again , after running the table prior to the playoffs, the lost in the QF's.

So... despite its overall success over the last several years, the real and only weakness in this team , in my opinion, is actually Hasselborg herself!! She and the team's athleticism and firepower are simply not enough. Until Hasselborg masters the more critical attributes such as mental toughness , solid strategic and technical skills, this team will continue to be hindered and thwarted.

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12-26-17 08:19PM
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Great points Deliverer and ML. My guess is that the incredible depth we have here in Canada and the constant high level competition that our players are subject to at every age category teaches them how to better cope with the big pressure situations. The ole "Been there done that" phenomenon:-) Rachel and Emma were playing against Jen Jones when they were 16. Years of that level of competition teaches you how to rebound from losses cause no matter who you are you are going to suffer your share, and how to handle the tension of the high pressure games against the very best.

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12-26-17 09:25PM
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I wonder if Curl Canada - or even private statisticians keep track of winning percentages over time. Here's my prediction on what those stats might look like:

1. Jen Jones - most games won in her career, most games won in STOH play, most games won in slam events; Top 3 in winning percentage

2. Coco Jones (Colleen) - 2nd most games won in STOH play, Top 5 in winning percentage.

3. Rachel Homan - 2nd most games won in career, 3rd most games won in STOH play (great for only 28) and 2nd most games won in slam events (behind only Jones). Top 2 in winning percentage.

4. Sandra Schmirler - 3rd most games won in career, best winning percentage in world championships and Olympic competition. Unknown slam record.

5. Sensational Sherri Middaugh - Top 6 in career games won.

6. Connie Laliberte - Top 5 in career games won, Top 10 in early slam results.

7. Kelly Scott/Heather Nedohin (tie) - Both Top 10 in STOH games won.

8. Logjam of teams from #8 to #20 - Heather Houston, Shannon Kleibrink, Val Sweeting, The BC Twins, Kelley Law, That good Sask'n team that can never win the Scotties, Marilyn Bodogh-Darte, Krista McCarville, Sherry Anderson,

Even though Homan is a superior athlete and superior curler to JJ Jones NOW - she's got a lot of catching up to do. Even with JJ's deficiencies and warts poppig up regularly and her inability to win world championships she's still a killer on the cash/slams tour, plays a full schedule and may have a year or two left on the circuit to torment most of the squad although Jen may have more difficulty than ever getting out of Manitoba.

This makes the 2018 STOH such a mudder's special. No Homan, probably no Jones (unless she can pick up her game in time for the Manitoba Scotties).
Wonder if Heather Nedohin or Kelly Scott - 2 teams absolutely terrified by Homan might decide to come out of semi-retirement?

Even the choke-girls from Regina might want to have a go at things - without JJ or Homan in the field.

However, the odds-on favourite for the 2018 STOH is no doubt, Krista McCarville. Krista just doesn't have the horse-power (especially at 3rd and 2nd) to overpower Homan - and Krista pretty much has an auto-berth in Northern Ontario, equivalent to Gushue in Nfld./Labrador.

Lawton could mount a challenge out of Sask'n but has to find some fresh players or find a team that will accept her at 3rd.

Sweeting and her giggle-girls might present a challenge in AB but they'll be confronted by a myriad of wolverines - in Rocque, Kliebrink, Nedohin, Carey & The New Girls.

If Val can somehow manoeuvre her way to Kelowna her biggest competition would be McCarville. Hard to decide who'd be the bigger favourite.

2 other notes on STOH - love to see Jenn Hanna make a comeback this season and mount a challenge for the Ontario spot. No other team in Canada deserves a Canadian title than Ms. Hanna.
Note 2 - I hope Team Canada Englot makes an offer to Kaitlyn Lawes as 5th player. Lawes can do it all - and she'd fit into the scene better than her skip Jones.

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12-27-17 09:17AM
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J. Jones

Just a question. You mention Jones needing to get up for the Manitoba scotties. Does she also have a second chance to qualify through the "play-in" game under the new 2018 rules?

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12-27-17 09:49AM
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Im still taking muirhead for gold. weakness at third, yes but eve is just a good a shotmaker as rachel herself and vicki adams is one of the best seconds in the world. right up there with joanne and hasselborg's second.

think muirhead and homan will be the final. eve does have a good record against rachel . im sure it'd be a good one either way.

its been posted here before but the problem hasselborg has is her inability to finish great weeks off. we've seen it time and time again this year and last year that she falters when the playoffs come. she reminds me a great deal of margaretha sigfridsson. perhaps the best international team never to win a world championship. sigfridsson looked great through round robins but her record once playoffs came was just bad . hasselborg is going down the same way. she's far younger and there's of course a lot of time for her to figure out how to win when it counts but i dont think figuring that out is gonna happen at the olympics.

tirinzoni is another team that can do well in the round robin but, i suspect she'd fakter late. and lets not overlook the fact that, in her senior career she has never once hit the podium . i can see tirinzoni being one of those 5-4 teams that either just barely misses playoffs or falls in tiebreakers.

there are a lot of other good teams so predicting the playoffs in all 4 spots is nearly impossible. but the safest bets for being there at the end are canada and great britain.

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12-27-17 11:10AM
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M.L.'s blurb dated 12-26-17

Some posters have also questioned if win - loss statistics actually exist over the last 15 years for women skips and , if so, who holds the record for the most Losses.

Yes posters, they do exist and the record for the most losses - by a very wide margin - is a Manitoba skip with the initials J.J.

Starting in 2003.........

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12-29-17 09:09AM
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Congrats to Team Moiseeva and the changing of the guard in Russia.

This team has improved a lot this year - they won 68% of their games which is at least comparable to Team Homan's 75%.

Their lack of a 2018 WCT resume may work in their favor in that there may not be a good book on what they're best at. I also believe that learning to win is big - more important than playing top teams and learning to lose. Moiseeva has won 3 times this year and has momentum, crushing Sidorova 4-1 in a best of 7 play down.

I don't think she can win, but medal? Yeah, she should contend for that.

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12-29-17 10:03AM
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Moisseva ain't Perky - - - but

But she's a veritable standup comic compared to the sour, dour and gloomy Sidorova.
Should add some spirit to the womens curling - plus at least as good a chance to medal as Sidorova.

btw - everyone (including myself) mentions Anna Sloan as a weak 3rd for Muirhead. Its very true - but Eve has learned to utilize missed shots by Sloan to her advantage. If Anna pulls the strong (short) Eve can use her stones as guards or bump them up. In any event more stones in play unless Anna outright gasses a hit or runs a draw thru the rings!

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12-29-17 10:53AM
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U.S.A. finished last in the '14 Olympics, Russia second last. Together they won only 4 games.

I expect each could win 4 this time around and perhaps more than 4 for the U.S.A.

As for the benefits of competing against local talent only, instead of highly ranked world teams, there aren't any in my opinion. If you want to reach the top of the ladder it is absolutely necessary to learn how to defeat the best and you simply can't do that by playing locals in your backyard.

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12-29-17 12:01PM
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I think Roth is in a much better position to perform well in this Olympics. She won the Canada Inns this year and has gone undefeated vs. Jones recently. She is 2-0 vs. Hassleberg and 1-0 vs. Tirinzoni in the last 12 months. She had a tough play down against Sinclair in the trials as well. She is 0-3 against Homan including a couple of close ones. In last year's Worlds Holman stole the 10th and 11th in the round robin.

I'm not saying they will win, but I think they have a better chance than Russia and may surprise some with her skill. She was 6-5 In last year's Worlds.

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12-29-17 01:31PM
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If that's the best the Russians can play, they will not medal at the Oly's.

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12-29-17 02:10PM
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It will be fun to enjoy the games as teams fight for silver and bronze.

I see Homan taking gold. One thing I like about them is their heavy game travels well. A finesse team will be at the mercy of inconsistent ice while Homan's rockets will be less affected.

The rest is less clear.

Muirhead can do it, but the Eve of 2017 is not the same girl as we've come to love in prior years. I'm glad that Anna Sloan has recovered from her knee mishap and is back, but I still see this team fighting for a bronze.

Russia is young, Moiseeva is 26 and her vice is only 22. Not sure any results in 2014 or 2015 are meaningful here. This team did win the 2016 Euro curling championships thrashing Muirhead and Hasselborg on the way - they've demonstrated they can play.

I'm not sure what to think about Nina Roth. Obviously I'd like her team to do great, but I have trouble seeing her racking up wins against the top teams. Hope I'm wrong.

For me, I think Homan - Hasselborg - Moiseeva. Teams in the mix falling just short are Muirhead, Roth, Tirinzoni and China.

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12-29-17 05:35PM
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Several rags, including the Curling News, have indicated the 2018 Olympics will be on a higher competitive level than the 2014 Olympics.

Back in '14 the two outstanding favorites were Great Britain and Canada. Sweden and Switzerland were ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively, while the remaining countries were essentially considered also - rans only. As everybody is now aware G.B. and Muirhead did not have a good week. It was , in fact, troublesome and they finished the round-robin with a record of 5-4, losing to Canada, Sweden, Switzerland and ( gasp) Denmark.

It is perhaps noteworthy that recently G.B. won the Euro Championship finishing the round -robin with a record of 7-2. In the finals they defeated Sweden who had finished the round-robin ( as usual ) undefeated. Assuming G.B. has improved since '14 ( and Glenn Howard's presence must have been a plus over the last two years,) that the current team from Sweden is also stronger than Sigfridsson was, and that Tirinzoni is at least equal to Ott who finished up 5-4, this is not going to be a cakewalk for anybody in February. In addition there are 3 other teams that must be given some consideration simply because they have proved to be capable of winning the whole enchilada on the big stage. Roth won the Canad Inns earlier this year beating back a field of 32 teams including Carey, Tirinzoni, Muirhead, Jonesy and Hasselborg. And just a few weeks ago Japan's Fujisawa beat both Hasselborg and Muirhead to win the Karuizawa Int'l. And now Moiseeva, who won the European Championship in 2016, has been added to the mix. While I don't really like the odd on these three, who knows?

That said, this thing is probably going to come down to the very last rock in the 10th, and I like Canada's chances. Should they have the the hammer in the final end, I believe they will win it, And if they don't have last rock......they'll still win !!

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Mike McEwen wins Ed Werenich Golden Wrench Classic

Mike McEwen wins Ed Werenich Golden Wrench Classic

Mike McEwen (Winnipeg, MB) wins the Ed Werenich Golden Wrench Classic, defeating Steve Laycock (Saskatoon, SK) 6-4 at the Coyotes Curling Club in Tempe, Arizona, United States.

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