Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Heck, Alan, I don't even know who all ages out this year. Impossible to set a betting line until we know if the HPP will leave your team alone. What if they want a couple of the players and the team breaks up? It could easily happen. Lots of other Junior talent around like Shortstop and Young Violette (who might turn in an awesome Junior Olympics shortly) and a Fenson or two and Quinn "Meyers Rule" Evanson. Will the Clawson team break up in order to get significant HPP funding? Will HPP funding be available for Juniors as we near the next Winter Olympics?

Too many questions. Right now the odds for Clawson winning National Juniors next year with team intact would be 3 to 1 IF we bet on Juniors...which is amoral...so we don't do it...because we fear God. (I figure the chances of staying intact are 50/50 and then the chances of winning are 50/50, so the math says 4 to 1 and then I take a little off that so I can stay fat and happy)

I need to stay away from the Women's thread. It looks like I severely underestimated the HPP teams. Mixed curling should be coming up soon. Somebody start a Mixed thread and distract people from Women's.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2011
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Wow...just...wow...

If you're not watching the webcast, you're missing it...

Clawson manages to bury his last stone just enough to make Plys have to hit it....

And Plys misses.

With Shuster taking a loss and Craig Brown as well....it's....well...it's a little crazy...

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Registered: Mar 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 18

Why is Plys throwing skip stones instead of Fenson? Didn't that experiment fail last year too?

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

70% of the Men's field at 3&2 or 2&3. Quite the cluster.

The B Bunch, obviously, looks extremely good. I've been watching quite a bit of the webstream.

I have the strong opinion that TyGer George is the best curler in the field. I know they have a couple of losses, but he has really impressed me.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002

Lots on the line here for Team Shuster. A win here will give them a berth into the end of season Champions Cup, and it looks like enough points to get them into the Elite 10 Grand Slam event in Victoria in March.

Winner of women's event will also receive a berth into the Champions Cup as well, held at the end of April in Edmonton.

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

quote:

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Originally posted by Gerry
Lots on the line here for Team Shuster. A win here will give them a berth into the end of season Champions Cup, and it looks like enough points to get them into the Elite 10 Grand Slam event in Victoria in March.

Winner of women's event will also receive a berth into the Champions Cup as well, held at the end of April in Edmonton.

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Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629

quote:

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Originally posted by Gerry
Lots on the line here for Team Shuster. A win here will give them a berth into the end of season Champions Cup, and it looks like enough points to get them into the Elite 10 Grand Slam event in Victoria in March.

Winner of women's event will also receive a berth into the Champions Cup as well, held at the end of April in Edmonton.

---

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Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812

quote:

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Originally posted by tuck


I need to stay away from the Women's thread. It looks like I severely underestimated the HPP teams.

Ben Tucker

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Interesting blog re: Nationals... Disclaimer: not my blog

https://glenmckenna.wordpress.com/2.../the-nationals/

Some interesting quotes, this one was quite interesting.

'We still haven�t talked about the USCA�s other brilliant idea: the High Performance Program. Sources tell The Scotch that this very loosely defined �program� is a debacle. It�s a self preserving, unaccountable, unmitigated disaster. "

----


So, it's still somewhat early through nationals, but I'll bring up what I've said before. I have yet to see a huge (significant) advantage of the HPP teams vs. several teams who did not get any support... With all this "support" they get, the HPP teams should be running circles around everyone day in and day out, with perhaps an occasional upset, and they are not even close to that.

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002

quote:

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Originally posted by Phil_D


That could also conceivably qualify them for the Players' Championship in April, correct? Especially if they did well at the Elite 10 and Worlds. I mean, assuming they wouldn't mind turning around from Switzerland to Toronto in short order.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Uff da. It was sure looking like I jinxed TyGer George. Appears that, for the first half of this morning's game, it was all he could to slide out of the hack. Good second half saved me. I need to quit tempting the jinx.

I see Guertzie's point. While all the USA teams would love the gold and the Champion's invite that comes with it, the stakes for Face Team are much higher. As they flirt with a Top 10 WCT OOM finish, it has implications beyond the one spiel.

Other teams, however, really need that invite as well. Teams like the B Bunch need to start building for an Olympic Trials invite. But I do get Gerry's point.

I see Pete Fenson is throwing last today.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Jan 2012
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quote:

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Originally posted by ref_hater
Why is Plys throwing skip stones instead of Fenson? Didn't that experiment fail last year too?

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So...2/3 of the way through...what do we have?

Clark is in the playoffs for sure, and really only needs one win in his last three to all but clinch a spot in the 1-2 game.

McCormick is out...I believe mathematically, but I haven't run all the permutations to be sure of that (2^15 is kind of a big number...)...realistically though, I can tear up my prediction ticket...he ain't making it this year

All else is up in the air.

Brown, Shuster, and Clawson are in complete control of their destiny (Brown and Shuster because of 1 game leads on 4th, Clawson because he has games against both Brown and Shuster remaining). They can't all run the table (In fact, there are guaranteed to be two losses between these three, as they all play each other coming home), but if any of them do run the table, they're in, and 2-1 would likely get any of them in to at least a tiebreak at 5-4, even Clawson if the loss is in his other game against Dropkin (again??!!??).

Dropkin and Leichter are in decent shape if they tend to business. Running the tables should get them in. The Leichter/Dropkin game in D14 may be an elimination game.

Birr, Corbett, and Fenson are on major life support and need to win out and get lots of help to cross the line and crawl into tiebreakers.

Question: Are we following the WCF "Single Tiebreaker only" rule or playing a multi-seat tie out on the ice?

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
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The schedule has times for two TBs so hopefully if there is more than one then they both get played.

JH
Pitchers and catchers reporting soon, Phils eliminated soon after that

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Clawson hangs the first L on Clark, Shuster, Dropkin and Brown conduct business appropriately. Corbett wins, but it may be too little too late.

At this time, it's 5 teams for 4 spots...Since most of their remaining games are within the top 5, it's gonna come down to who among that group finishes up.

Clawson/Dropkin IV could easily be a playin game. Brown is the only team that has lead pipe cinched a spot....any other team going 0-2 tomorrow is likely on the outside looking in.

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Judging by scoreboard, Brown vs Fenson must have been a really exciting game. Just the kind of match to attract new fans to the game of curling.

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Assuming I understand the World's Selection Rules correctly (highest OOMish score of teams in the final 3 at Trials), there is only one way that the National Representative will be anything other than Shuster or Brown.

Both Clawson and Dropkin needs to win their remaining game (as well as one of them winning their H2H game). Both Shuster and Brown need to lose their non head-to-head game.

That would put one of Clawson/Dropkin at 6-3 and the other at 5-4. Clark has already clinched at least 6-3. The winner of Brown/Shuster clinches at least 6-3. If the loser of B/S loses their other game (Clawson plays Shuster in about 20 minutes as I write this), they will be at 5-4.

There would be one playoff for the 4th slot. The Brown/Shuster loser would need to lose that, putting them in 5th and out.

I'm not sure what the procedures to seed into the 1v2 vs 3v4 page game are when tehre is a tie for 2nd...I *think* it's head to head then LSD...either way, the B/S loser needs to end up in the 3-4 game against the C/D loser.

If that all happens, and the Clawson/Dropkin loser defeats the Brown/Shuster loser, then it's whichever of Clark, Clawson, or Dropkin win the tourney.

Any other scenario and it's whichever of Shuster/Brown gets further (and even then, if both make the top 3, it's Shuster)

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I'm telling you that everyone who wants the National Champion to go to Worlds has two choices:

1. Root for Shuster to win Nationals

or

2. Root for Clawson starting...now...

wait...why am I on the boards right now? There' a game on Youtube!

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Registered: Apr 2015
Location: Thunder Bay
Posts: 180

that was a really nice set up for a steal in Clawson v Shuster game but Shuster got 2 with a blast to get rid of the yellow

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Clawson didn't play scared...but he did play young (well...whatcha gonna expect at 19...he *is* young)....and we've now got a hairball for the playoffs:

We know 2 of the teams in:
Clark: Clinched spot in 1-2 game
Shuster: Clinched playoff spot. Clinches spot in 1-2 game with W over Brown

3 other teams have shots as of this writing:

Brown: Has shot at 1-2 game with W over Shuster. Loss puts him into a Playoff for 3rd IF Clawson beats Dropkin (if Dropkin beats Clawson, then Brown/Dropkiin is the 3-4 game)

Dropkin: Clinches playoff spot with W over Clawson. Has shot at 1-2 game with W over Clawson (requires Brown to beat Shuster, then to get the #2 spot in the tiebreaker, which I'm uncertain if it's H2H, LSD, or played on the ice). In tiebreaker with L to Clawson (2 way for 4th if Brown d Shuster, 3 way for 3rd if Shuster d Brown)

Clawson: Clinches a tiebreaker spot with W over Dropkin (2 way for 4th if Brown d Shuster, 3 way for 3rd if Shuster d Brown). Eliminated with Loss.

The remainder of the teams are eliminated

Last edited by AlanMacNeill on 02-10-16 at 01:04PM

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Registered: Feb 2014
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Hi Tuck:

I've only seen parts of games but how's the attendance down there?

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Oh, also at this point it is official that it will be either Team Shuster or Team Brown putting on the Red White and Blue.

Brown's only hope is to beat Shuster, win the 2/3 tiebreak (or for Dropkin to win a 2/3/4 tiebreak if he beats Clawson), then for Shuster to lose the 3-4 game.

Even then, Brown has to win the whole thing.

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Registered: Dec 2012
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Looks like winner of Shuster v Brown tonight gets a spot in the 1-2 page playoff game, thereby ensuring that team a spot on the podium. Which means, I believe, that Team Clark can win the national title, but cannot advance to Worlds.

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Registered: Sep 2002
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quote:

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Originally posted by Jimbobogie
Hi Tuck:

I've only seen parts of games but how's the attendance down there?

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