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02-08-16 03:02PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
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Heck, Alan, I don't even know who all ages out this year. Impossible to set a betting line until we know if the HPP will leave your team alone. What if they want a couple of the players and the team breaks up? It could easily happen. Lots of other Junior talent around like Shortstop and Young Violette (who might turn in an awesome Junior Olympics shortly) and a Fenson or two and Quinn "Meyers Rule" Evanson. Will the Clawson team break up in order to get significant HPP funding? Will HPP funding be available for Juniors as we near the next Winter Olympics?

Too many questions. Right now the odds for Clawson winning National Juniors next year with team intact would be 3 to 1 IF we bet on Juniors...which is amoral...so we don't do it...because we fear God. (I figure the chances of staying intact are 50/50 and then the chances of winning are 50/50, so the math says 4 to 1 and then I take a little off that so I can stay fat and happy)

I need to stay away from the Women's thread. It looks like I severely underestimated the HPP teams. Mixed curling should be coming up soon. Somebody start a Mixed thread and distract people from Women's.

Ben Tucker

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02-08-16 06:43PM
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Wow...just...wow...

If you're not watching the webcast, you're missing it...

Clawson manages to bury his last stone just enough to make Plys have to hit it....

And Plys misses.

With Shuster taking a loss and Craig Brown as well....it's....well...it's a little crazy...

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02-08-16 07:47PM
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Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2015
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Plys

Why is Plys throwing skip stones instead of Fenson? Didn't that experiment fail last year too?

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02-08-16 09:04PM
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tuck
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70% of the Men's field at 3&2 or 2&3. Quite the cluster.

The B Bunch, obviously, looks extremely good. I've been watching quite a bit of the webstream.

I have the strong opinion that TyGer George is the best curler in the field. I know they have a couple of losses, but he has really impressed me.

Ben Tucker

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02-08-16 09:43PM
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Lots on the line here for Team Shuster. A win here will give them a berth into the end of season Champions Cup, and it looks like enough points to get them into the Elite 10 Grand Slam event in Victoria in March.

Winner of women's event will also receive a berth into the Champions Cup as well, held at the end of April in Edmonton.

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02-08-16 11:03PM
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jhcurl
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quote:
Originally posted by Gerry
Lots on the line here for Team Shuster. A win here will give them a berth into the end of season Champions Cup, and it looks like enough points to get them into the Elite 10 Grand Slam event in Victoria in March.

Winner of women's event will also receive a berth into the Champions Cup as well, held at the end of April in Edmonton.



This will get in me in trouble but I don't effing care anymore.

Think that the winners of the Brier and Scotties would be happy with that?

JH
just sayin'

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02-08-16 11:04PM
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Phil_D
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quote:
Originally posted by Gerry
Lots on the line here for Team Shuster. A win here will give them a berth into the end of season Champions Cup, and it looks like enough points to get them into the Elite 10 Grand Slam event in Victoria in March.

Winner of women's event will also receive a berth into the Champions Cup as well, held at the end of April in Edmonton.



That could also conceivably qualify them for the Players' Championship in April, correct? Especially if they did well at the Elite 10 and Worlds. I mean, assuming they wouldn't mind turning around from Switzerland to Toronto in short order.

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02-08-16 11:10PM
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dbsdbs
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quote:
Originally posted by tuck


I need to stay away from the Women's thread. It looks like I severely underestimated the HPP teams.

Ben Tucker



Or maybe overestimated the rest of the field?

The 4 qualifiers were pretty much a given before women's event started. With only 7 teams there should be only 3 teams that make playoffs. At least that would inject a little suspense into womans championship.

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02-09-16 12:09AM
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IMWright
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Interesting blog re: Nationals... Disclaimer: not my blog

https://glenmckenna.wordpress.com/2.../the-nationals/

Some interesting quotes, this one was quite interesting.

'We still havenít talked about the USCAís other brilliant idea: the High Performance Program. Sources tell The Scotch that this very loosely defined ďprogramĒ is a debacle. Itís a self preserving, unaccountable, unmitigated disaster. "

----


So, it's still somewhat early through nationals, but I'll bring up what I've said before. I have yet to see a huge (significant) advantage of the HPP teams vs. several teams who did not get any support... With all this "support" they get, the HPP teams should be running circles around everyone day in and day out, with perhaps an occasional upset, and they are not even close to that.

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02-09-16 12:10AM
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Gerry
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quote:
Originally posted by Phil_D


That could also conceivably qualify them for the Players' Championship in April, correct? Especially if they did well at the Elite 10 and Worlds. I mean, assuming they wouldn't mind turning around from Switzerland to Toronto in short order.



Yes to Players' Championship as it they'd be in a good spot. Brier closing weekend is last weekend of qualifying for the Players' so if Shuster does win here it would put them in great position too for that.

No Order of Merit points available at the Elite 10 as the format doesn't conform.

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02-09-16 12:56PM
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tuck
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Uff da. It was sure looking like I jinxed TyGer George. Appears that, for the first half of this morning's game, it was all he could to slide out of the hack. Good second half saved me. I need to quit tempting the jinx.

I see Guertzie's point. While all the USA teams would love the gold and the Champion's invite that comes with it, the stakes for Face Team are much higher. As they flirt with a Top 10 WCT OOM finish, it has implications beyond the one spiel.

Other teams, however, really need that invite as well. Teams like the B Bunch need to start building for an Olympic Trials invite. But I do get Gerry's point.

I see Pete Fenson is throwing last today.

Ben Tucker

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02-09-16 12:59PM
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nom de broom
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

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Re: Plys

quote:
Originally posted by ref_hater
Why is Plys throwing skip stones instead of Fenson? Didn't that experiment fail last year too?


IIRC, Plys was anointed as the Chosen One after his performance as alternate in the save-our-ass line up changes in Vancouver.

Unfortunately, his performance since then has done nothing to change their minds. I know we all complain a lot about the HPP in many ways, but their commitment to (as I've said before) trying to make Plys happen despite all evidence to the contrary is probably what bugs me the most:

1. Try Team Option A with Plys...failure
2. Switch out someone (Not Plys)
3. Try Team Option B with Plys...failure
4. Switch out someone (Not Plys)
5. Try Team Option C with Plys...failure
6. Switch out someone (Not Plys)
7. Repeat steps 1-6

At minimum, they should have figured out by now that Plys is a front-end guy and he's always going to be a front-end guy. Doesn't mean he won't go to Worlds some day. Doesn't mean he won't go to the Olympics again. But jeebus, he ain't gonna be the one to go toe-to-toe (either in the house or last rocks) against the Edins and Howards of the world.

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02-09-16 01:40PM
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AlanMacNeill
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So...2/3 of the way through...what do we have?

Clark is in the playoffs for sure, and really only needs one win in his last three to all but clinch a spot in the 1-2 game.

McCormick is out...I believe mathematically, but I haven't run all the permutations to be sure of that (2^15 is kind of a big number...)...realistically though, I can tear up my prediction ticket...he ain't making it this year

All else is up in the air.

Brown, Shuster, and Clawson are in complete control of their destiny (Brown and Shuster because of 1 game leads on 4th, Clawson because he has games against both Brown and Shuster remaining). They can't all run the table (In fact, there are guaranteed to be two losses between these three, as they all play each other coming home), but if any of them do run the table, they're in, and 2-1 would likely get any of them in to at least a tiebreak at 5-4, even Clawson if the loss is in his other game against Dropkin (again??!!??).

Dropkin and Leichter are in decent shape if they tend to business. Running the tables should get them in. The Leichter/Dropkin game in D14 may be an elimination game.

Birr, Corbett, and Fenson are on major life support and need to win out and get lots of help to cross the line and crawl into tiebreakers.

Question: Are we following the WCF "Single Tiebreaker only" rule or playing a multi-seat tie out on the ice?

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02-09-16 01:57PM
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jhcurl
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The schedule has times for two TBs so hopefully if there is more than one then they both get played.

JH
Pitchers and catchers reporting soon, Phils eliminated soon after that

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02-09-16 10:00PM
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Clawson hangs the first L on Clark, Shuster, Dropkin and Brown conduct business appropriately. Corbett wins, but it may be too little too late.

At this time, it's 5 teams for 4 spots...Since most of their remaining games are within the top 5, it's gonna come down to who among that group finishes up.

Clawson/Dropkin IV could easily be a playin game. Brown is the only team that has lead pipe cinched a spot....any other team going 0-2 tomorrow is likely on the outside looking in.

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02-09-16 11:29PM
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dbsdbs
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Judging by scoreboard, Brown vs Fenson must have been a really exciting game. Just the kind of match to attract new fans to the game of curling.

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02-10-16 09:39AM
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Assuming I understand the World's Selection Rules correctly (highest OOMish score of teams in the final 3 at Trials), there is only one way that the National Representative will be anything other than Shuster or Brown.

Both Clawson and Dropkin needs to win their remaining game (as well as one of them winning their H2H game). Both Shuster and Brown need to lose their non head-to-head game.

That would put one of Clawson/Dropkin at 6-3 and the other at 5-4. Clark has already clinched at least 6-3. The winner of Brown/Shuster clinches at least 6-3. If the loser of B/S loses their other game (Clawson plays Shuster in about 20 minutes as I write this), they will be at 5-4.

There would be one playoff for the 4th slot. The Brown/Shuster loser would need to lose that, putting them in 5th and out.

I'm not sure what the procedures to seed into the 1v2 vs 3v4 page game are when tehre is a tie for 2nd...I *think* it's head to head then LSD...either way, the B/S loser needs to end up in the 3-4 game against the C/D loser.

If that all happens, and the Clawson/Dropkin loser defeats the Brown/Shuster loser, then it's whichever of Clark, Clawson, or Dropkin win the tourney.

Any other scenario and it's whichever of Shuster/Brown gets further (and even then, if both make the top 3, it's Shuster)

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02-10-16 09:56AM
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02-10-16 10:00AM
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AlanMacNeill
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I'm telling you that everyone who wants the National Champion to go to Worlds has two choices:

1. Root for Shuster to win Nationals

or

2. Root for Clawson starting...now...

wait...why am I on the boards right now? There' a game on Youtube!

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02-10-16 10:27AM
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that was a really nice set up for a steal in Clawson v Shuster game but Shuster got 2 with a blast to get rid of the yellow

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02-10-16 12:59PM
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Clawson didn't play scared...but he did play young (well...whatcha gonna expect at 19...he *is* young)....and we've now got a hairball for the playoffs:

We know 2 of the teams in:
Clark: Clinched spot in 1-2 game
Shuster: Clinched playoff spot. Clinches spot in 1-2 game with W over Brown

3 other teams have shots as of this writing:

Brown: Has shot at 1-2 game with W over Shuster. Loss puts him into a Playoff for 3rd IF Clawson beats Dropkin (if Dropkin beats Clawson, then Brown/Dropkiin is the 3-4 game)

Dropkin: Clinches playoff spot with W over Clawson. Has shot at 1-2 game with W over Clawson (requires Brown to beat Shuster, then to get the #2 spot in the tiebreaker, which I'm uncertain if it's H2H, LSD, or played on the ice). In tiebreaker with L to Clawson (2 way for 4th if Brown d Shuster, 3 way for 3rd if Shuster d Brown)

Clawson: Clinches a tiebreaker spot with W over Dropkin (2 way for 4th if Brown d Shuster, 3 way for 3rd if Shuster d Brown). Eliminated with Loss.

The remainder of the teams are eliminated

Last edited by AlanMacNeill on 02-10-16 at 01:04PM

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02-10-16 01:02PM
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Hi Tuck:

I've only seen parts of games but how's the attendance down there?

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02-10-16 01:07PM
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Oh, also at this point it is official that it will be either Team Shuster or Team Brown putting on the Red White and Blue.

Brown's only hope is to beat Shuster, win the 2/3 tiebreak (or for Dropkin to win a 2/3/4 tiebreak if he beats Clawson), then for Shuster to lose the 3-4 game.

Even then, Brown has to win the whole thing.

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02-10-16 01:08PM
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Looks like winner of Shuster v Brown tonight gets a spot in the 1-2 page playoff game, thereby ensuring that team a spot on the podium. Which means, I believe, that Team Clark can win the national title, but cannot advance to Worlds.

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02-10-16 01:08PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Jimbobogie
Hi Tuck:

I've only seen parts of games but how's the attendance down there?



Total attendance was 6018 as of last night's draw.

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