Forums Menu

User: 
Pass:  

Curling Scores

M: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: M5 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 7:00pm CT
Fitzgerald Final
Guentzel (10) Watch Live Curling!
Cenzalli Final
Rose (10) Watch Live Curling!
Church Final
Lannoye (10) Watch Live Curling!
Hebert Final
Brenden (9) Watch Live Curling!
W: New Holland Canadian Junior Championships
Fort McMurray, AB
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 10 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 2:00pm MT
ON (Acres) Final
MB (Hayward) (10)
NO (Dubinsky) Final
NS (MacNutt) (9)
QC (Fortin) Final
MB (Terrick) (8)
PEI (Lenentine) Final
SK (Pomedli) (10)
NO (Toner) Final
NB (Forsythe) (10)
NT (Skauge) Final
AB (Deschiffart) (8)
ON (Markle) Final
AB (Beaudry) (10)
NL (Locke) Final
NS (Blades) (10)
W: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: W4 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 2:00pm CT
Scheel Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Pekowitz Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Schapman Final
Johnson (10) Watch Live Curling!
Giroux 12  Final
Viau (9) Watch Live Curling!
M: Canadian Mixed Doubles Curling Championship
Fredericton, NB
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF -- Fri, Mar 22 -- 1:00pm AT
Lott/Lott Final
Walk/Muyr (8) Watch Live Curling!
M: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 3:00am ET
Caccivio Final
Brauchli 12  (EE)
Dryburgh Final
Ringgenberg (9)
W: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 9:00am CET
Schwaller Final
Oberson (9)
Blackham Final
von Arx (9)
W: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 11:00am MT
Stroeder Final
Delorey (7)
M: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 1:00pm ET
Delorey Final
Lockhart (EE)
Full Scoreboard  |  Play Fantasy Pick'em!  
Disclaimer: CurlingZone does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any Content posted on any Forums area and you acknowledge that any reliance upon such Content shall be at your sole risk. Any Content placed on any Forums area by users and anonymous posters are the views of the user posting the statement, and do not represent the views of CurlingZone or our partners, advertisers or sponsors. By posting anonymously, you are allowing your IP address to be displayed for identification purposes. CurlingZone reserves the right to remove any post at its discretion without warning or explanation.
  Last Thread   Next Thread
Author
Thread Post New Thread   Post A Reply
03-01-21 10:35AM
Icebound is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Icebound Click here to Send Icebound a Private Message Find more posts by Icebound Add Icebound to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Icebound
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2004
Location:
Posts: 39

5-rock FGZ Issues

In a game which... by its very nature... the last rock is a huge advantage... it appears that introduction of the 5-rock FGZ has only made this worse.

Historically, teams with the last rock in the first end would win about 60% of their games (National championships Men and Women... Brier and Hearts).

With the introduction of 5-FGZ, that has up-ticked. Last Year's Brier, it was 65%... This years Hearts, even worse at just under 70%! (69.4 in the 9-draw round-robin, 68.1 overall)

Of course there could be many factors, but it is undisputed that 5-FGZ over 4-FGZ favored the hammer team by allowing an additional protected corner guard... while offering no advantage to the non-hammer team (compared to 4-FGZ).

Although 3 years of 5-FGZ can be considered a small sample, the trend seems clear.

The question is, Is this what we really wanted?

I suppose the goal of increasing the number of rocks in play has been met, although that is hard to measure quantitatively. It hasn't shown up in the scoring... last year's Brier actually dipped to 1.30 points per end average, against the long-term 4-FGZ average of 1.35. This years Scotties did show an increase to 1.46 from the long term 4-FGZ average of 1.39.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-07-21 09:43PM
cnpeters is offline Click Here to See the Profile for cnpeters Find more posts by cnpeters Add cnpeters to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
cnpeters
Hitting Paint

 

Registered: Feb 2020
Location: Ohio
Posts: 167

Doesn’t 70 seem about right?

I mean if we allow that having hammer first is a 55/45 advantage between equal teams, then we figure that the best eight teams are going to win the draw to the button almost every time against the maritimes, Yukon, and Nunavut, and then they’re going to beat them every time in a non competitive game, 65-70 seems about right.

I don’t see a problem here. It’s more fun to watch when it’s a mess between good teams. Have 6 free guards. Eight. Fifteen. I don’t care, they’re all the best at this damn sport, let them figure it out. Chaosfest is way more fun than Blankfest.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-07-21 10:21PM
IN-OFF-FOR-2 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for IN-OFF-FOR-2 Find more posts by IN-OFF-FOR-2 Add IN-OFF-FOR-2 to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
IN-OFF-FOR-2
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 1875

A little back handed jab against teams from Atlantic Canada I'd say. Do the math, brier wins in the last 25 years for Atlantic Canada vs BC, SK and Quebec combined......with 7-8 times the population. Google it.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-08-21 09:33AM
cnpeters is offline Click Here to See the Profile for cnpeters Find more posts by cnpeters Add cnpeters to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
cnpeters
Hitting Paint

 

Registered: Feb 2020
Location: Ohio
Posts: 167

Sure.

Anyway, back to the point of first end hammer in the 2021 Scotties - I'm not entirely sure why 70% is unreasonable. The better team is going to win the hammer most of the time, and the better team is going to win the game most of the time.

And.. when there's the kind of discrepancy of experience between the professional teams and the non-professional teams, I see no reason to expect that percentage to be anything other than 70%. I think it says more about the talent/experience/opportunity deficit between the best 6 or 8 teams and everyone else than it does about the hammer.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-08-21 12:02PM
Bmalky is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bmalky Find more posts by Bmalky Add Bmalky to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Bmalky
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2019
Location: Brantford, ON
Posts: 49

I believe the biggest point is the team with the hammer in 10 has an even bigger advantage now. With the tick shot now the norm, how many teams steal the 10th for a tie or win? The team with hammer can put up two guards safely With the skill set today, they can get at almost any rock. I don't have the stats, but I would say the team with hammer in 10 wins the vast majority of games.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-08-21 02:13PM
FollowingAlong is offline Click Here to See the Profile for FollowingAlong Click here to Send FollowingAlong a Private Message Find more posts by FollowingAlong Add FollowingAlong to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
FollowingAlong
Swing Artist

 

Registered: Mar 2006
Location:
Posts: 459

quote:
Originally posted by Bmalky
I believe the biggest point is the team with the hammer in 10 has an even bigger advantage now. With the tick shot now the norm, how many teams steal the 10th for a tie or win? The team with hammer can put up two guards safely With the skill set today, they can get at almost any rock. I don't have the stats, but I would say the team with hammer in 10 wins the vast majority of games.


The constant demand/requirement for more curl in the ice has taken away the art of actually drawing behind a guard. Throw it out there so it misses the guard by a foot, but still buries is all that is necessary. That very fact makes a single guard a near-useless obstacle as anything buried behind a single guard can be nose hit with board weight. So now, two, three, four guards are required if you want to try to generate a steal opportunity.

I realize that sweeping is a part of the game, but the shotmaking itself should be more important than the ability to carve it over when the shooter has missed the broom by a foot.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-14-21 10:57AM
Icebound is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Icebound Click here to Send Icebound a Private Message Find more posts by Icebound Add Icebound to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Icebound
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2004
Location:
Posts: 39

quote:
Originally posted by Bmalky
I believe the biggest point is the team with the hammer in 10 has an even bigger advantage now. With the tick shot now the norm, how many teams steal the 10th for a tie or win? The team with hammer can put up two guards safely With the skill set today, they can get at almost any rock. I don't have the stats, but I would say the team with hammer in 10 wins the vast majority of games.


That is definitely shown in the 5-rock stats. Before 5-rock, the argument about 1-down-with, 1-up-without, favored the 1-up-without about 60-40. But in the 3-years of 5-FGZ, that has turned around to favoring 1-down-with by 66-44. In the mens game, anyway.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-15-21 09:49PM
Icebound is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Icebound Click here to Send Icebound a Private Message Find more posts by Icebound Add Icebound to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Icebound
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2004
Location:
Posts: 39

quote:
Originally posted by Bmalky
I believe the biggest point is the team with the hammer in 10 has an even bigger advantage now. With the tick shot now the norm, how many teams steal the 10th for a tie or win? The team with hammer can put up two guards safely With the skill set today, they can get at almost any rock. I don't have the stats, but I would say the team with hammer in 10 wins the vast majority of games.


This is borne out after the Brier.

It was NOT true In 4FGZ days. It was 61% in favor of the team UP-without hammer.

But in the 3 years of 5FGZ, it has turned around completely to 67% favouring the DOWN-WITH team.
Even more spectacular... if you take the 2021 brier ALONE, it was 82% !! 9 wins out of 11 such tries (admittedly a small sample)

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-15-21 10:50PM
Hack Weight is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Hack Weight Click here to Send Hack Weight a Private Message Find more posts by Hack Weight Add Hack Weight to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Hack Weight
Hitting Paint

 

Registered: Dec 2014
Location: Alberta
Posts: 131

Interesting numbers, though I don’t believe 70% to be the true win percentage of having hammer in end 1. As others have mentioned, better teams win the hammer more often, which skews the stats. If we took say only Canada Cup, Roar, Championship Pool games, and playoffs at Worlds, that might reflect more evenly skilled teams. I would say though that you don’t want the true advantage of LSFE between two even teams to be 70/30. That’s too big a disparity based on one draw to the button that isn’t even televised.

Are we headed eventually to a 6FGZ? I’m open to listening. I find that stealing ends is too difficult. It shouldn’t be easy, but you also shouldn’t feel like you have a 1/10 chance or less of winning a tied game without hammer. Also, the more you “devalue” hammer, the less blanking ends matter.

The shotmaking and sweeping and ice quality has so dramatically improved over the years. The benefit is we are treated to many good shots. The downside is there is less unpredictability. Bury a rock behind a guard? The other team will just run back the guard or throw back line and tap it out or draw the four foot with little trouble.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-16-21 03:33PM
Icebound is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Icebound Click here to Send Icebound a Private Message Find more posts by Icebound Add Icebound to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Icebound
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2004
Location:
Posts: 39

quote:
Originally posted by Hack Weight
Interesting numbers, though I don’t believe 70% to be the true win percentage of having hammer in end 1. As others have mentioned, better teams win the hammer more often, which skews the stats. If we took say only Canada Cup, Roar, Championship Pool games, and playoffs at Worlds, that might reflect more evenly skilled teams. I would say though that you don’t want the true advantage of LSFE between two even teams to be 70/30. That’s too big a disparity based on one draw to the button that isn’t even televised.

Are we headed eventually to a 6FGZ? I’m open to listening. I find that stealing ends is too difficult. It shouldn’t be easy, but you also shouldn’t feel like you have a 1/10 chance or less of winning a tied game without hammer. Also, the more you “devalue” hammer, the less blanking ends matter.

The shotmaking and sweeping and ice quality has so dramatically improved over the years. The benefit is we are treated to many good shots. The downside is there is less unpredictability. Bury a rock behind a guard? The other team will just run back the guard or throw back line and tap it out or draw the four foot with little trouble.

\

We can argue whether 70% or 65% (or whatever) is a good or bad number for hammer advantage. But MY point is that the 5-FGZ rule has made that worse compared to 4-FGZ.

One other thing that the 5-rock rule has done unintentionally.. is made it harder to come back.

In the 3 years prior to implementation of 5FGZ (2016-2018), 30% of Brier games that were down 2 after 4 ends, came back to win.

In last 3 years (5-FGZ), it is only 13%.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-16-21 06:47PM
Icebound is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Icebound Click here to Send Icebound a Private Message Find more posts by Icebound Add Icebound to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Icebound
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2004
Location:
Posts: 39

quote:
Originally posted by Hack Weight
Interesting numbers, though I don’t believe 70% to be the true win percentage of having hammer in end 1. As others have mentioned, better teams win the hammer more often, which skews the stats. .



I will give you that.

So I threw out all of the games involving "weak" teams... teams that did not make the top 8 in each year.

Doing that DOES balance the stats somewhat, leaving the hammer importance at about 60-40 without much difference between 4 or 5-FGZ

However, the "comebacks" issue shows up even worse:

In last 3 years, down 2 after three ends: 22% came back.
Previous 3 years: 33%

Down 2 after 6: only 5% of games came back.
Previous 3 years: 22%

And the biggie at the with-or-without in the 10th: In last 3 years, 77% won when down 1 with.
In previous 3 years, only 12% won down 1 with. Up 1 without was favored.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

03-16-21 10:27PM
Hack Weight is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Hack Weight Click here to Send Hack Weight a Private Message Find more posts by Hack Weight Add Hack Weight to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Hack Weight
Hitting Paint

 

Registered: Dec 2014
Location: Alberta
Posts: 131

quote:
Originally posted by Icebound



I will give you that.

So I threw out all of the games involving "weak" teams... teams that did not make the top 8 in each year.

Doing that DOES balance the stats somewhat, leaving the hammer importance at about 60-40 without much difference between 4 or 5-FGZ

However, the "comebacks" issue shows up even worse:

In last 3 years, down 2 after three ends: 22% came back.
Previous 3 years: 33%

Down 2 after 6: only 5% of games came back.
Previous 3 years: 22%

And the biggie at the with-or-without in the 10th: In last 3 years, 77% won when down 1 with.
In previous 3 years, only 12% won down 1 with. Up 1 without was favored.



Good work. I can live with 60/40 for the team with LSFE, though that is still a big disparity that I’d prefer to be smaller.

The comeback stats have to be a red herring. I can’t think of a good reason why 5FGZ makes it more difficult to come back than 4FGZ. The team without hammer can still throw two guards. It’s easier to generate more points with hammer with the 5FGZ. If those numbers maintain for a few more years, that’s an issue. You want comebacks and unpredictability to keep viewers entertained.

The 1 down with stats make good sense. Easier to score two with hammer with the 5FGZ.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

All times are GMT. The time now is . Post New Thread   Post A Reply
  Last Thread   Next Thread
Show Printable Version | Email this Page | Subscribe to thisThread

Forum Jump:
Rate This Thread:

Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is OFF
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
 

Curling Scores

M: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: M5 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 7:00pm CT
Fitzgerald Final
Guentzel (10) Watch Live Curling!
Cenzalli Final
Rose (10) Watch Live Curling!
Church Final
Lannoye (10) Watch Live Curling!
Hebert Final
Brenden (9) Watch Live Curling!
W: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: W4 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 2:00pm CT
Scheel Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Pekowitz Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Schapman Final
Johnson (10) Watch Live Curling!
Giroux 12  Final
Viau (9) Watch Live Curling!
M: Canadian Mixed Doubles Curling Championship
Fredericton, NB
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF -- Fri, Mar 22 -- 1:00pm AT
Lott/Lott Final
Walk/Muyr (8) Watch Live Curling!
M: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 3:00am ET
Caccivio Final
Brauchli 12  (EE)
Dryburgh Final
Ringgenberg (9)
W: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 9:00am CET
Schwaller Final
Oberson (9)
Blackham Final
von Arx (9)
W: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 11:00am MT
Stroeder Final
Delorey (7)
M: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 1:00pm ET
Delorey Final
Lockhart (EE)
Full Scoreboard  |  Play Fantasy Pick'em!  

Recent News

Recent
Homan Brings Home Gold

Homan Brings Home Gold

Sydney, Canada - In front of a full house with over 4,000 spectators, Canada (photo: Stephen Fisher, World Curling) beat Switzerland by 7-5 to take gold at the BKT Tires World Women's Curling Championship 2024.

Curling Photos

Recent

Curling Blogs

Facebook Feed

Twitter Feed

To top ↑