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BDure
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Feb 2016
Location: Vienna, VA
Posts: 75

One aspect of the Wood team that I hesitate to mention because we might prefer to see past it, but these events don't have a lot of diversity. So having the Wood team there at least sends a message that this sport isn't just for homogeneous Midwesterners.

And hey, as I type, Wood draws to the button with some good sweeping!

On a more general note -- has the Challenge Round always been national? Was it ever regional? Might be fun to have it be more like the Brier or Scotties (or like other U.S. tournaments that have playdowns).

Or are there too many tournaments -- Nationals, Club Nationals, Arena Nationals, etc.? Are a lot of people simply choosing to enter the Club Nationals, where they have a chance of winning, instead of the main Nationals?

And finally, do we not have enough WCT events that Californians can get to? I'm not convinced about the depth of talent, given the lack of good results in any events with OOM points.

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Old Post 02-15-17 06:38PM
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BDure
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Feb 2016
Location: Vienna, VA
Posts: 75

So if Roth beats Potter, Christensen wins, and Clark shocks Sinclair, we have a four-way tie. How will they break that?

I'm also a little confused about OOM points. Teams can count their top six events (at least two out of the USA) "going into Nationals." Then they'll award points for the top three AT Nationals: 110, 85 and 65. So does that mean each team will be counting seven events, or would that 110, 85 or 65 bump out the lowest of the six coming in?

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Old Post 02-15-17 09:11PM
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AlanMacNeill
Drawmaster

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 871

So, McCormick is mathematically eliminated from the Playoffs...

Shuster has clinched the #1 spot, which appears (assuming there is no 3rd/4th place game) to clinch him a top 3 finish.

Birr and Clark are pretty certain to make it to the playoffs.

As of this writing, Brown is on life support (down in the 9th of a must win game).

It appears likely that our winner goes to Worlds unless it's Fenson, in which case I *believe* Shuster goes.

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Old Post 02-16-17 12:15AM
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hackfreeze
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Feb 2008
Location:
Posts: 26

Oh - the irony of your post - regional competition, lack of entries, depth of field.
If you can comb through the archives - you'll find a rich history of debate on the topic!

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Old Post 02-16-17 08:40AM
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BDure
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Feb 2016
Location: Vienna, VA
Posts: 75

quote:
Originally posted by hackfreeze
Oh - the irony of your post - regional competition, lack of entries, depth of field.
If you can comb through the archives - you'll find a rich history of debate on the topic!



Great -- I have 40 hours of spare time this week to do all that!

No, seriously -- I've seen a lot of the debate over lack of entries and depth of field, though it seems a lot of people want to blame that on the notion that it's impossible for a team without a lot of OOM points to make it to the World Championships. That seems odd to me. If the U.S. Championship was more like the Brier and the Wisconsin championship meant something, would we see more entries? They wouldn't be thinking "Worlds," but they'd be thinking, "Hey, maybe we can pull a couple of upsets and get to the U.S. Championships."

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Old Post 02-16-17 09:00AM
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BDure
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Feb 2016
Location: Vienna, VA
Posts: 75

quote:
Originally posted by MCC_PE
On the men's side, if we assume at least one of McCormick, Brown, Shuster or Clark will finish third or higher (pretty likely), then Fenson, Dropkin, Clawson, Leichter and Sobering can't go to worlds, even if they win. That leaves the following scenarios:

McCormick - Finish third or higher
Brown, Shuster & Clark - Win and McCormick finishes lower than third
Birr - Win, McCormick finishes lower than third, and Brown & Shuster both are not in the final

On the women's side, if we assume at least one of Roth, Sinclair or Christensen will finish third or higher (again, pretty likely, if a little less so than the men's because it's three teams instead of four), then Bear, Potter, Clark and Wood can't go to worlds, even if they win. That leaves the following scenarios:

Roth - Make final, OR at least third and Sinclair doesn't win
Sinclair - Win and Roth not in final
Christensen - Win and Roth finishes lower than third
Schultz - Win, Roth & Sinclair finishes lower than third and Christensen not in final



This was an excellent post, btw. I started crunching numbers on my own and found that this explanation makes perfect sense.

So to update ...

MEN with Heater out ...

Brown, Shuster & Clark - Win
Birr - Win, and Brown & Shuster both are not in the final

So Birr will be rooting for Brown to miss the playoffs and for Shuster not to make the final.

WOMEN with Schultz out ...

Roth - Make final, OR at least third and Sinclair doesn't win
Sinclair - Win and Roth not in final
Christensen - Win and Roth finishes lower than third

So if Cassie Potter beats Roth today, things get really interesting. All four games in the 11 a.m. ET session are meaningful!

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Old Post 02-16-17 09:10AM
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biterbar
Drawmaster

Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 511

In the Men's we have a real shot at a three way tie for the fourth spot. Clark needs to beat Fenson to have a shot over Birr as the second seed which would knock Fenson down to 4 losses and a tiebreaker possibility. Birr plays Shuster who will not lay down for this game.

Brown then needs to beat Sobering (not a lock the way they have played lately) and Leichter needs to beat Clawson which is also far from a sure thing.

Of course a win by Fenson locks down the top four and we go straight to the pages.

Shuster continues to show he is a step above everyone in the USA. He is also our best shot at the worlds. I just don't see the next 5 current playoff possibilities competing with the top half of the field at the Worlds.

I must say I am impressed by the play of Dr. Double Rich Ruohonen. The top vice in shooting percentage (Actually the top curler at any position) he is a big reason Birr is sitting locked into the playoffs this morning.

__________________
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

Last edited by biterbar on 02-16-17 at 10:03AM

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Old Post 02-16-17 09:59AM
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MCC_PE
Hitting Paint

Registered: Mar 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 130

The women's side is a modified Page playoff of only three teams, unless there's a four-way tie for first.

"If 4 teams are tied for first place after the round robin, then the teams are ranked, and 1v 4 and 2 v 3 in the semifinals. The semifinal winners advance to the gold medal game. The semifinal losers play in the bronze medal game."

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Old Post 02-16-17 10:07AM
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MCC_PE
Hitting Paint

Registered: Mar 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 130

Well, the women's side is down to Sinclair or Roth. Sinclair #1 seed and advances directly to final. Roth #2 seed and Potter #3 seed, who will play in the semifinal.

Roth just needs to beat Potter in the semifinal to punch her ticket to Beijing.

Sinclair needs to win nationals, but also have Potter beat Roth in the semifinal.

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Old Post 02-16-17 02:03PM
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mikey
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Dec 2003
Location:
Posts: 49

Are you sure its not the page playoff for the women? The website shows it as a page playoff.

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Old Post 02-16-17 02:11PM
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biterbar
Drawmaster

Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 511

Wow, Christensen loses again and clears up the playoff picture.

Yes, with 8 teams it is a 3 team playoff. I wonder what the effect of playing with three has done to Potter, obviously some fatigue could be occurring.

Should be an interesting afternoon for the Men.

__________________
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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Old Post 02-16-17 02:18PM
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MCC_PE
Hitting Paint

Registered: Mar 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 130

From http://www.teamusa.org/USA-Curling/...-2017-Nationals:

Women: The top three teams advance to play in a modified Page playoff. If there is a clear-cut winner of the round robin (at least one game ahead of the second-place team), the top seed will advance directly to the final. In that scenario, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds will play in a single semifinal to determine the other semifinalist. If there is not a clear-cut winner of the round robin, the teams will be ranked 1-3. The No. 1 team plays the No. 2 team with the winner advancing to the final. The loser would then play the No. 3 seed in a single semifinal to determine the other finalist.

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Old Post 02-16-17 02:24PM
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BDure
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Feb 2016
Location: Vienna, VA
Posts: 75

Schedule is updated:
http://www.usacurlingnationals2017....event-schedule/

So no game at 4 p.m. PT / 7 ET. There will be a game late tonight, but if no tie-breaker is needed, we will NOT have a game tomorrow morning.

Will World Juniors be on?

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Old Post 02-16-17 03:02PM
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curlinglove
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Mar 2016
Location: Bay City, Michigan
Posts: 49

Am I the only one shocked to see Christensen not qualify for playoffs? Anyone know the final round robin standings?

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Old Post 02-16-17 05:04PM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2536

Jumping the gun, I need to pat myself on the back quickly before playoffs begin. It's not easy to pat myself on the back, but I'm pretty good at it.

My picks (Face Shuster and Savior Sinclair) finish the round robin at the very top of the standings.

Now I'm not saying that Biterbar's analysis is flawed; I'm just saying that mine is better...well...for now...looking good going into the playoffs...trying to poke Biterbar...I think he can take some teasing.

Ben Tucker

Last edited by tuck on 02-16-17 at 05:24PM

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Old Post 02-16-17 05:13PM
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biterbar
Drawmaster

Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 511

I deserve some ribbing for the Men's side. Actually if you switch McCormick for Shuster I may be right on the final four, but that is a big switch.

__________________
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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Old Post 02-16-17 05:32PM
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curlinglove
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Mar 2016
Location: Bay City, Michigan
Posts: 49

Is there a double loss provision for undefeated Shuster?

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Old Post 02-16-17 05:40PM
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BumperUp
Harvey Hacksmasher

Registered: Dec 2014
Location:
Posts: 11

quote:
Originally posted by curlinglove
Am I the only one shocked to see Christensen not qualify for playoffs? Anyone know the final round robin standings?


I find it interesting but not really shocking. If you caught any of the websteam this week, there was a lot of bickering about shot calls and looking defeated when things weren't going their way. They have a lot of growing up to do before they start closing the deal.

The other thing I found interesting was the success of the Sinclair team. Jamie seems to make some rookie mistakes in ends where the shot calls aren't completely obvious. Fortunately she's an awesome shooter, and her team is solid, which gets her out of terrible in this field. Not sure that will work at worlds though.

Last edited by BumperUp on 02-16-17 at 05:47PM

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Old Post 02-16-17 05:42PM
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MCC_PE
Hitting Paint

Registered: Mar 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 130

The only double loss provision in the rules is in the section for Juniors (U21).

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Old Post 02-16-17 06:03PM
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AlanMacNeill
Drawmaster

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 871

quote:
Originally posted by curlinglove
Is there a double loss provision for undefeated Shuster?


If he loses the Page 1v2 game, he gets a second chance in the semi to advance to the Final.

However, if he wins the Page 1v2 game, the Final is single elimination...regardless of if his opponent is a team he's beaten twice already in this tournament (as they would certainly be under this scenario)

Commentary on the inherent unfairness of this is irrelevant, as TV's desire for a "Winner Take All" game overrides basic principles of fairness and decency

(Commentary on how they seem to cope with it for every other sport than the NFL and NCAA Championships are for another thread)

(Commentary on how I'm not even sure it's *being* televised is just sour grapes and me not paying enough attention)

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Old Post 02-16-17 07:14PM
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VAcurler
Hitting Paint

Registered: Jan 2012
Location:
Posts: 134

What happens if somehow Pete gets hot and runs the table defeating Clark in the finals? I know the final is Shuster vs either Birr or Fenson, Shuster automatically advances to Worlds.

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Old Post 02-16-17 07:22PM
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SPMFromPCC
Swing Artist

Registered: Jun 2007
Location:
Posts: 433

I believe Clark would go in that scenario. His point lead over Fenson is insurmountable.

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Old Post 02-16-17 08:02PM
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MCC_PE
Hitting Paint

Registered: Mar 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 130

Brown or Clark wins, they go to Worlds.
Birr over Clark, Birr goes
Fenson over Clark, Clark goes
Every other scenario, Shuster goes

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curlky
Swing Artist

Registered: Oct 2013
Location:
Posts: 443

quote:
Originally posted by BumperUp
I find it interesting but not really shocking. If you caught any of the websteam this week, there was a lot of bickering about shot calls and looking defeated when things weren't going their way. They have a lot of growing up to do before they start closing the deal.

The other thing I found interesting was the success of the Sinclair team. Jamie seems to make some rookie mistakes in ends where the shot calls aren't completely obvious. Fortunately she's an awesome shooter, and her team is solid, which gets her out of terrible in this field. Not sure that will work at worlds though.



I am not Canadian, nor do I have decades of knowledge of the past decades of Canadian curling, so I want to ask this question. Is there a track record of teams like Christensen with such youth being put together this early, and having success on a big time level. Not getting OOM points style big time, but winning big events consistently? It seems as though no one on Christensen's team has served time on the front end for a veteran team/skip. Its not what I would think is a recipe for success, but would like to know if I am amazingly wrong about this or not. From my pov, it looks like Corey and Sarah have a lot different opinions on shots called. I dont think they hate each other, but more that they clearly have different plans, and either Corey is asking for too much input, or Sarah is providing too much input.

As for Jamie, I am hopeful that the Continental Cup provided her a push to take things up to the elite level.

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Old Post 02-16-17 09:36PM
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ObsessiveCurler
Administrator

Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 1950

quote:
Originally posted by biterbar
Wow, Christensen loses again and clears up the playoff picture.

Yes, with 8 teams it is a 3 team playoff. I wonder what the effect of playing with three has done to Potter, obviously some fatigue could be occurring.

Should be an interesting afternoon for the Men.



I'm more shocked McCormick didnt qualify in the men's. From being the "#1 seed" to not even being close when the weekend comes =

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