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M: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: M5 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 7:00pm CT
Fitzgerald Final
Guentzel (10) Watch Live Curling!
Cenzalli Final
Rose (10) Watch Live Curling!
Church Final
Lannoye (10) Watch Live Curling!
Hebert Final
Brenden (9) Watch Live Curling!
W: New Holland Canadian Junior Championships
Fort McMurray, AB
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 10 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 2:00pm MT
ON (Acres) Final
MB (Hayward) (10)
NO (Dubinsky) Final
NS (MacNutt) (9)
QC (Fortin) Final
MB (Terrick) (8)
PEI (Lenentine) Final
SK (Pomedli) (10)
NO (Toner) Final
NB (Forsythe) (10)
NT (Skauge) Final
AB (Deschiffart) (8)
ON (Markle) Final
AB (Beaudry) (10)
NL (Locke) Final
NS (Blades) (10)
W: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: W4 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 2:00pm CT
Scheel Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Pekowitz Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Schapman Final
Johnson (10) Watch Live Curling!
Giroux 12  Final
Viau (9) Watch Live Curling!
M: Canadian Mixed Doubles Curling Championship
Fredericton, NB
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF -- Fri, Mar 22 -- 1:00pm AT
Lott/Lott Final
Walk/Muyr (8) Watch Live Curling!
M: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 3:00am ET
Caccivio Final
Brauchli 12  (EE)
Dryburgh Final
Ringgenberg (9)
W: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 9:00am CET
Schwaller Final
Oberson (9)
Blackham Final
von Arx (9)
W: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 11:00am MT
Stroeder Final
Delorey (7)
M: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 1:00pm ET
Delorey Final
Lockhart (EE)
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04-24-16 12:58PM
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THORDAL
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Nov 2013
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8 ender

Does any one know thd odds of getting an 8 ender?

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04-24-16 08:37PM
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Harvey Hacksmasher

 

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The problem I see in trying to calculate this type of thing is you need set odds. If you take a bunch of noobs and put them on the ice against some seasoned players I'd say the chances of the experienced players getting an 8 ender is much higher than if they were playing an equally matched team.

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04-24-16 09:39PM
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Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Nov 2013
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I was able to find out that the odds of a hole in one in golf is 12000 to 1 but I could not find the odds of an 8 ender

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04-25-16 09:02AM
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AlanMacNeill
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Impossible to accurately calculate, because unlike Golf, curling has an opponent on the ice.

It's not just how well and accurately and lucky you are with your shot, it's how unlucky (or unskilled) your opponents are, the tactical situation in the game at the beginning of the end (you're never going to see a team up 4 in the last end give up an 8...unless they miss 6 takeouts...vanishingly unlikely), etc.

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04-25-16 09:45AM
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ngm
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The OCA had 57 8-enders reported to it this season.

Come up with a reasonable guess of the number of ends by clubs in the OCA this season.

There's your estimate.

Having been on the good side of an 8-ender I can say that they are not really achievements, per se. They are more like events that happen to you.

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04-25-16 11:05AM
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TJNCJ
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My club is having it's 50th anniversary next year and still have not recorded an 8 ender. I estimate there has been between 125,000 and 160,000 ends played during that time.

We have had multiple state champions, national medalists and HPP curlers, so I don't think it is because we lack talent.

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04-25-16 11:37PM
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Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Feb 2014
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quote:
Originally posted by ngm
The OCA had 57 8-enders reported to it this season.

Come up with a reasonable guess of the number of ends by clubs in the OCA this season.

There's your estimate.

Having been on the good side of an 8-ender I can say that they are not really achievements, per se. They are more like events that happen to you.



This is very confusing. You suggest there were 57 8 enders this season? I don;t believe that is possible. Maybe in its existence?

I don't think 8 ender's can be calculated with odds. And if it did it would definitely be different for everyone.

Also having great curlers doesn;t necessarily mean a better chance at an 8 ender. You usually need the right opposition, or the right situation in a game or even the right ice conditions (good or bad).

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04-26-16 02:05AM
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On The Nose
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What I want to know is what percentage of teams who score an 8-ender go on to LOSE that game...

I suppose we'll have to figure out the odds of scoring an 8-ender first (which, the future being unpredictable, and not necessarily based on the past, is really impossible).

Heh...

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04-26-16 10:03AM
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ngm
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quote:
Originally posted by MBTuck


This is very confusing. You suggest there were 57 8 enders this season? I don;t believe that is possible. Maybe in its existence?



http://ontcurl.com/awards/8-ender/

8 enders are not all that rare in the grand scheme of things considering all the games that get played. Heck, I've gotten one. I've seen another happen on an adjacent sheet. They are certainly very rare from any particular curler's point of view.

quote:
I don't think 8 ender's can be calculated with odds. And if it did it would definitely be different for everyone.


Sure they can. I've already said exactly how to do it. Number of 8-enders divided by number of ends played (or number of games played if you like.)

The hard part is coming up with a number of games played. The OCA has 193 clubs. Let's say the average OCA club has 4 sheets. Maybe that's low. Plenty of 3, 4, and 6 sheeters out there. A few with 5. A couple with 8. Let's go with 4.

Suppose a club averages 10 draws a week (this will be low for some but high for others). That gives you a little over 185280 games in a year. There were 57 8-enders last year.

So your 8-ender rate is about 3 in 10000. That's so close to zero that would be pretty close to the probability of an 8-ender in any particular game. A curler would expect to wait over 3000 games before being in a game with an 8-ender, but since an 8-ender is essentially a random event, you shouldn't be surprised to go 6000 to 9000 games before it happens.

So, yeah, most people will never be in a game with an 8 ender. But there are lots of games played and not such a small number of 8 enders happen every year, overall.

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04-26-16 11:37AM
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biterbar
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quote:
Originally posted by ngm


http://ontcurl.com/awards/8-ender/

8 enders are not all that rare in the grand scheme of things considering all the games that get played. Heck, I've gotten one. I've seen another happen on an adjacent sheet. They are certainly very rare from any particular curler's point of view.



Sure they can. I've already said exactly how to do it. Number of 8-enders divided by number of ends played (or number of games played if you like.)

The hard part is coming up with a number of games played. The OCA has 193 clubs. Let's say the average OCA club has 4 sheets. Maybe that's low. Plenty of 3, 4, and 6 sheeters out there. A few with 5. A couple with 8. Let's go with 4.

Suppose a club averages 10 draws a week (this will be low for some but high for others). That gives you a little over 185280 games in a year. There were 57 8-enders last year.

So your 8-ender rate is about 3 in 10000. That's so close to zero that would be pretty close to the probability of an 8-ender in any particular game. A curler would expect to wait over 3000 games before being in a game with an 8-ender, but since an 8-ender is essentially a random event, you shouldn't be surprised to go 6000 to 9000 games before it happens.

So, yeah, most people will never be in a game with an 8 ender. But there are lots of games played and not such a small number of 8 enders happen every year, overall.



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04-26-16 11:47AM
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AlanMacNeill
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quote:
Originally posted by TJNCJ


We have had multiple state champions, national medalists and HPP curlers, so I don't think it is because we lack talent.



Perversely, I suspect it is *less* likely that a talented curling team is going to give up an 8 ender.

- They aren't going to miss all their hits
- The Skip will notice the situation sooner and strategize

Now, that is balanced by the fact that, presumably, a talented team against an untalented one would be more likely to put the untalented team into a spot where an 8 is possible.

However, a team that knows they are playing 'above their class' will tend to play a game that is likely to avoid an 8 ender as well, as they would deliberately "play smallball", ie not try to score a big end, just focus on keeping the other team from blowing them out.

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04-26-16 12:04PM
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dugless_zone 13
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFLgSavnaB8

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04-26-16 12:10PM
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ngm
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Registered: Feb 2011
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quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill


Perversely, I suspect it is *less* likely that a talented curling team is going to give up an 8 ender.



On the other hand...

A talented team might be more likely to take on more risk when down in the score, because they have confidence in making the last shot to get 1 in a good position to score.

Which, if they then miss, could result in the 8 against them.

Such as here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvAVeVDyto (N.Ont. finals)

and here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvAVeVDyto (2006 Players')

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Curling Scores

M: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: M5 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 7:00pm CT
Fitzgerald Final
Guentzel (10) Watch Live Curling!
Cenzalli Final
Rose (10) Watch Live Curling!
Church Final
Lannoye (10) Watch Live Curling!
Hebert Final
Brenden (9) Watch Live Curling!
W: USA Curling Junior National Championships
Eau Claire, WI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: W4 -- Wed, Mar 27 -- 2:00pm CT
Scheel Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Pekowitz Final
Berg (9) Watch Live Curling!
Schapman Final
Johnson (10) Watch Live Curling!
Giroux 12  Final
Viau (9) Watch Live Curling!
M: Canadian Mixed Doubles Curling Championship
Fredericton, NB
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF -- Fri, Mar 22 -- 1:00pm AT
Lott/Lott Final
Walk/Muyr (8) Watch Live Curling!
M: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 3:00am ET
Caccivio Final
Brauchli 12  (EE)
Dryburgh Final
Ringgenberg (9)
W: Swiss Junior Championships
Thun, SUI
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: CF2 -- Sun, Mar 24 -- 9:00am CET
Schwaller Final
Oberson (9)
Blackham Final
von Arx (9)
W: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 11:00am MT
Stroeder Final
Delorey (7)
M: NWTCA Curling Club Championships
Fort Smith, NT
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: 3 -- Sat, Mar 23 -- 1:00pm ET
Delorey Final
Lockhart (EE)
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