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05-04-18 09:44AM
curlky is offline Click Here to See the Profile for curlky Click here to Send curlky a Private Message Find more posts by curlky Add curlky to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
curlky
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Its Derby Time

I am surprised that the annual Derby review thread has not been posted yet, so I thought it was time to get the ball rolling for those interested.

Some quick thoughts. It has been 136 years since Apollo won the Derby as a horse that did not run as a 2 year old. Since then no Horse has won the Derby without having run as a 2 year old. To go further, since 1937, 59 horses have entered the Derby without having raced as a 2 year old. Amongst those 59, only have 7 have finished in the Top 3, with 3 second places and 4 third places. Further investigation will show that Apollo’s win was on a muddy track, and Apollo was a mudder, while eth race favorite Runnymeade was known to hate the mud.

So why do I bring this up? Well, 2 of the favorites in this year, Justify and Magnum Moon did not run as 2 year olds. So this means that it is likely that Exactas, Trifectas & Superfectas (and even the Hi-5 if you are bold) will most likely pay huge payouts.

So who do I like. Well 3 of the last 5 Derby winners have won the Florida Derby, including the last 2. So I think that I like Audible the most. But I'm still reading through the form, so I will post more later, just wanted to get the ball rolling here with a summer topic.

Last edited by curlky on 05-04-18 at 09:47AM

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05-04-18 08:21PM
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Don't see any of these even coming close to Northern Dancer's 1964 time of 2:00, especially if it turns up mud as they forecast earlier today.

Would love to have Flameaway, the Ontario - bred who placed second in the Bluegrass last month, win it all with those morning odds of 30 - 1.

I'd recommend you box him on top with Bolt d' Oro ( 8 - 1) and Vino Rosso (12-1 ) . Then call BRINK'S so they can back up the truck!

Only lukewarm about your choice of Audible ( 8-1 ) - not too sure he's cut out for a mile and a quarter.

Good Luck.

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05-04-18 09:10PM
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As a Kentuckian, I dont expect the track to be mud. It might not be Fast, but it wont be sloppy, so I dont think mudders will come into play. If the track does get sloppy, look for a value bet with Bolt d'Oro. While he has not himself run in the mud, his pedigree says he will handle it well. So while much of the mud money will go to horse with wins in the mud already, Bolt offers hidden value if we do get mud.

Right now, as far as favorites go, I am liking Audible and Meddleson. I will post back later on my longer shots to add to exotics, but I am liking Hofburg and Lone Sailor so far.

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05-05-18 10:35AM
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curlky
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quote:
Originally posted by Deliverer
Don't see any of these even coming close to Northern Dancer's 1964 time of 2:00, especially if it turns up mud as they forecast earlier today.


Dont know how I didnt notice this yesterday, but Northern Dancer only ran the 4th fastest Derby ever, slower than Secretariat, Sham & Monarchos.

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05-06-18 04:43PM
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The Dancer only ran the 4th fastest Derby ever you say. ONLY? From 1875 to 1973, a period of 98 years, no 3 year old had ever run faster. That doesn't sound too shabby to me!

As a Kentuckian you must be certainly aware that while Secretariat is considered to be the Greatest Race Horse of All Time, Northern Dancer is primarily known not for winning the Derby and the Preakness but as "The Super Stud of All Time". In his prime he commanded a stud fee of $1,000,000.00 - no live foal guaranteed. Absolutely unheard of then or since.

TC

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