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| 12-07-15 04:47PM |
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Kiwi
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Dec 2003
Location:
Posts: 33 |
quote:
Originally posted by drawthepin
Having hammer in the first end is a huge advantage. Read somewheres that teams with hammer in first end win 65% of the time. Probably a little less than that for the top teams but still a huge advantage.
I wrote a post about this in Bill Tschirhart's blog last year. Agree - hammer is a huge advantage, especially at high level when basic shotmaking skills are generally really good.
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| 12-07-15 05:11PM |
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milobloom
Administrator
Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 839 |
quote:
Originally posted by drawthepin
Having hammer in the first end is a huge advantage. Read somewheres that teams with hammer in first end win 65% of the time. Probably a little less than that for the top teams but still a huge advantage.
Win Expectancy (WE) with Hammer since 2003
10 end game
Womens = 55%
Mens = 58%
8 end game (includes tied 10 end games with 8 ends remaining)
Womens = 58%
Mens = 61%
For anyone who enjoys online sports betting, this is a significant item which needs to be factored in your handicapping.
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| 12-07-15 05:21PM |
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jzwanzig
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Dec 2013
Location: Halifax
Posts: 59 |
quote:
Originally posted by milobloom
Win Expectancy (WE) with Hammer since 2003
10 end game
Womens = 55%
Mens = 58%
8 end game (includes tied 10 end games with 8 ends remaining)
Womens = 58%
Mens = 61%
For anyone who enjoys online sports betting, this is a significant item which needs to be factored in your handicapping.
It'd be interesting to try to factor out of this the variable of WHY a team got hammer in the first end. For instance, if in the majority of cases, hammer was decided by draw to the button, the "advantage" may simply reflect that the better team draws better and wins more. It would be particularly interesting to see whether hammer in the first end translates into significantly more victories, when hammer is decided by a coin flip rather than something skill -based.
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| 12-08-15 12:40AM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
quote:
Originally posted by milobloom
Team McEwen is one of the top 5 teams in the world. (Edin, Gushue, Jacobs, Koe and McEwen, in alphabetical order). The next 5 or so teams are also real close to joining them, so the gap is not all that wide.
The game has gotten too easy for these guys. With the perfect ice groomed to be the same at every venue, fast houses and lively rocks, these folks are curling around 90% every game. What other sport has a success rate that high? It is fun to watch how good they are but it would be more interesting if it were not so easy to them.
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| 12-08-15 01:40AM |
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alex
Swing Artist
Registered: Sep 2011
Location: Quesnel
Posts: 420 |
It is hard to believe that drawing the button is almost automatic for the win. Maybe some bad ice would be make the games more interesting.
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| 12-09-15 09:45AM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
quote:
Originally posted by dbsdbs
The game has gotten too easy for these guys. With the perfect ice groomed to be the same at every venue, fast houses and lively rocks, these folks are curling around 90% every game. What other sport has a success rate that high? It is fun to watch how good they are but it would be more interesting if it were not so easy to them.
Yes, which is why they flounder and not win in other Countries. Perhaps they should try some of these slams in a curling club or remote location like Iqaluit. It would make it more interesting on challenging ice.
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| 12-09-15 10:15AM |
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JB42
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 621 |
Snooker has a similar success rate when they are on. And they ain't always on. Just like they ain't always on in curling. Take a look at the stats right now at the Canadian Open.
Team Laycock, Cotter, Casey, Howard all under 80% in game 1.
The back-end of McDonald, Rocque, Lawton and Sigfridsson all under 70%.
Rachel Homan by way of contrast has her A game going today and is shooting 97% after 5 ends.
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| 12-09-15 10:26AM |
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ngm
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 272 |
quote:
Originally posted by dbsdbs
The game has gotten too easy for these guys. With the perfect ice groomed to be the same at every venue, fast houses and lively rocks, these folks are curling around 90% every game. What other sport has a success rate that high? It is fun to watch how good they are but it would be more interesting if it were not so easy to them.
Go watch the 1985 Brier final between Ryan and Hackner. The one with the "greatest Brier shot of all time". From the golden years of the sport. If only things were as good now.
The game is essentially unwatchable crap compared to what we have now. Be careful what you wish for.
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| 12-09-15 11:04AM |
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HotRocks
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2015
Location:
Posts: 960 |
 I never wish for the "past"...
With some of the world's best Ice Techs now doing events world-wide.. the incidence of really bad foreign ice are almost not there anymore
I like the good ice ( imagine if you were a top curler)...
very few sports depend on the changing conditions of the field they are competing on
Now elite curlers can keep upping the degree of difficulty of successful, complex shots
Aside:
I personally think there is still too much of the "accepted" strategies relied on ( listen to Russ Howard when someone deviates from the expected "norm" )
.
Last edited by HotRocks on 12-09-15 at 11:26AM
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| 12-09-15 11:11AM |
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HotRocks
Drawmaster
Registered: Mar 2015
Location:
Posts: 960 |
Re: Wed a.m. predictions
quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
5 full games on this a.m.
Homan vs. Lawton - I think Lawton (if ready) might give Homan a rugged battle, especially if Rachel is suffering lingering effects of the illness she had last weekend. However, even a wounded Homan (75 to 80%) has the horses to subdue an eager Lawton squad - especially if Stef suffers the same bugaboos that continue to infest her game.
this is the Canada Cup thread.....
.
Last edited by HotRocks on 12-09-15 at 01:40PM
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| 12-09-15 12:08PM |
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Radio-Man
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2015
Location: Ontario & Santa Monica
Posts: 268 |
Wrong thread for predictions
This is the Canada Cup thread, you want the Canadian Open. 
__________________
"I'm not seeking penance for what I've done, Father. I'm asking forgiveness... for what I'm about to do"
"It means that I'm not the Samaritan. That I'm not the priest, or the Levite. That I am the ill intent...who set upon the traveler on a road that he should not have been on."
Last edited by Radio-Man on 12-09-15 at 12:12PM
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| 12-09-15 03:43PM |
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Radio-Man
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2015
Location: Ontario & Santa Monica
Posts: 268 |
More great ratings over the weekend for curling.
Draw averages are:
#5. Curling, Canada Cup women's final, Sunday, TSN: 422,000
#8. Curling, Canada Cup women's semi, Saturday, TSN: 378,000
#9. Curling, Canada Cup draw 9, Friday, TSN: 327,000
#10. Curling, Canada Cup men's semi, Saturday, TSN: 312,000
#11. Curling, Canada Cup men's final, Sunday, TSN: 307,000
__________________
"I'm not seeking penance for what I've done, Father. I'm asking forgiveness... for what I'm about to do"
"It means that I'm not the Samaritan. That I'm not the priest, or the Levite. That I am the ill intent...who set upon the traveler on a road that he should not have been on."
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