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02-26-17 04:38PM
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Three
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Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

Since the final date (May 1st) is coming up for announcing who qualifies, this thread will be pure mathematical speculation of who could take what spots in Ottawa. (Suffice it to say that those that go to Summerside for the Road to the Roar of the Rings will be all the big names that missed qualifying directly to Ottawa. I am happy to be corrected on any mistakes I make in my guesses.

Helpful links:

How to Qualify for Ottawa & Summerside

http://www.curling.ca/team-canada/2...cation-process/

Year To Date (YTD) OOM standings:

http://www.worldcurl.com/oom/oom.ph...ar=2017&week=28

Two year OOM standings

http://www.worldcurl.com/oom/oom.ph...ar=2017&week=28

Of course Homan and Jones have locked up official spots. Unofficially Sweeting has locked up the two year total and it is not even remotely realistic anybody can catch her.

Due to Jones winning the Canada Cup a third YTD CTRS/OOM team will make it this year. If Homan wins the Scotties a fourth team will make it on this year's points. Englot will probably make it either way with a win or loss.

Looking at YTD pts...Flaxey and Scheidegger are virtual locks to also qualify. After that Englot is probably 99% lock because she will get a pile of points for first/second in the Scotties.

That leaves one last spot available for direct entry to Ottawa. Fleury leads that spot and there are not too many events left to get points this season. Biggest one's are the Worlds (Homan/Englot already probably in so this is pointless) and the Players and Champions Cup on Tour. Einerson is already in the Champions Cup. Top 12 OOM YTD teams are invited to the Players. Will be important for Fleury to do well there to hold her spot if she gets in. Should any teams decline than Harrison/Middaugh might get an invite as they are 13/14 respectively right now). Depending on how many points Carey gets for third or fourth she will jump right up into the mix for MAYBE a player's invite.

To boil it down I think the Woman's ROTH qualifiers are:
1. Homan
2. Jones
------------ Above are officially qualified
3. Sweeting
4. Flaxey
5. Scheidegger
6. Englot
-------Above are pretty much mathematical locks to make it
7. Fleury
8. Pre-Qualifier #1
9. Pre-Qualifier #2

There are 12 inivtes going out to Summerside for the pre-qualifier....pretty much all the big names not on this list will qualify with some names only the die-hards will have heard of. I will pick McCarville and Einerson to make it out of that lot but those are guesses for a different thread next November

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02-27-17 04:57AM
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UnattachedFC
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Re: Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

Since the rankings with Scotties are out now. I fully agree that there are 6 teams that could not throw a rock until next August and still make the Trials no matter what. And they are the 6th teams you mentioned. So, I'm putting those 6 teams in.

Homan
Jones
Flaxey
Sweeting
Scheidegger
Englot


Now for that last spot...

Fleury just edges out Carey in 12th in the Year-to-date/CTRS 1 year. So, unless one of those 12 teams declines an invitation at the players', Carey has no shot for a direct entry and would need to go through Summerside: Homan, Hasselborg, Jones, Tirinzoni, Flaxey, Sweeting, Scheidegger, Englot, Muirhead, Wang, Sigfridsson, Fleury.


Fleury is also playing a tournament in Scotland where she could get points if she qualifies.

There are 3 teams that I believe have an outside shot at catching Fleury: Einarson, Harrison and Middaugh.

With Homan already qualified for the Champions' Cup, Harrison should get the next spot with her Tier 2 win.

If two other teams already qualified for the Champions' Cup win Players'/World or decline, Middaugh would get a Champions' Cup invite by my count. Alina Ptz winning worlds and an already qualified winner at Players' would also do the trick.

I know it's only extrapolating because I'm taking last season's points, so they won't be accurate, but Einarson pretty much needs to make the final to get enough points to catch Fleury now. Middaugh and Harrison would need to make the Semis, although it's possible that a quarters could be enough.

Now, if the season ended today and by disqualifying teams that said they would break up. Here are the 12 teams that would be in the Pre-Trials considering that Fleury would get a direct spot. (I disqualfied also any team that has made 2 changes the following season, it only disqualified Lawton. I'm considering that the 3 remaining members of team Carey are staying together)

1 16-17: Carey
2 14-15: Middaugh
3 15-16: Einarson
4 15-16: Rocque
5 15-16: McCarville
6 15-16: Harrison
7 16-17: Kleibrink
8 16-17: Tippin
9 16-17: Chyz
10 16-17: Meilleur
11 15-17: Robertson
12 15-17: Birchard

So, right now those are the 19 teams that are Olympic hopeful. It's fully possible that a team not on the list now could make it if one of the 19 other teams forfeits its spot. Team Thompson of BC is probably the team that has the best shot if something happens.

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02-27-17 05:16PM
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Re: Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

quote:
[i]Originally posted by Three
To boil it down I think the Woman's ROTH qualifiers are:
1. Homan
2. Jones
------------ Above are officially qualified
3. Sweeting
4. Flaxey
5. Scheidegger
6. Englot
-------Above are pretty much mathematical locks to make it
7. Fleury
8. Pre-Qualifier #1
9. Pre-Qualifier #2




I'm not sure I get your list. Here are the rules to qualify: http://www.curling.ca/team-canada/2...cation-process/

I have it as:
1. Homan
2. Jones
3. Flaxey (from Jones) 3rd in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones
4. Sweeting (from Homan) 4th in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones, Flaxey
5. Carey (from Homan) Highest CTRS in 2015-17 two year total behind Homan, Jones, Sweeting, Flaxey.
6. Scheidegger (from Homan) 5th in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones, Flaxey, Sweeting
7. Englot (from Jones) 6th in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones, Flaxey, Sweeting, Scheidegger

How do you have anyone besides Carey as the #5 qualifier for the ROTR? She has a 41 point lead on Rocque, 47 point lead on Einarson, and 56 point lead on Fleury. All 4 teams should get an invite to the Players. If Carey doesn't win a game they can lose the 2 year spot, but right now that spot is theirs.

Last edited by Squiggsy on 02-27-17 at 05:19PM

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02-27-17 06:37PM
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Three
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Re: Re: Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

quote:
Originally posted by Squiggsy


I'm not sure I get your list. Here are the rules to qualify: http://www.curling.ca/team-canada/2...cation-process/

I have it as:
1. Homan
2. Jones
3. Flaxey (from Jones) 3rd in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones
4. Sweeting (from Homan) 4th in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones, Flaxey
5. Carey (from Homan) Highest CTRS in 2015-17 two year total behind Homan, Jones, Sweeting, Flaxey.
6. Scheidegger (from Homan) 5th in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones, Flaxey, Sweeting
7. Englot (from Jones) 6th in 2016-17 CTRS points behind Homan, Jones, Flaxey, Sweeting, Scheidegger

How do you have anyone besides Carey as the #5 qualifier for the ROTR? She has a 41 point lead on Rocque, 47 point lead on Einarson, and 56 point lead on Fleury. All 4 teams should get an invite to the Players. If Carey doesn't win a game they can lose the 2 year spot, but right now that spot is theirs.



Hmmmm....i think you are right. I was under the assumption that the replacements for spots 3 and 4 would be assigned AFTER the other spots are claimed but the site does say they will be assigned in the order they are presented so your list is accurate as it stands now. (In my scenario Sweeting was getting the two year exemption at #5, then 6,7,3,4 were going to YTD leaders.)

The only mistake you have is believing Carey has a Player's invite. She is 13th in the YTD standings which is how the Player's invites are given. Should even one team decline Carey would be the first replacement invite. To be honest I think Team Carey is the weakest of the bunch so I liked the way my list worked out better, lol.

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02-27-17 07:24PM
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Re: Re: Re: Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

quote:
Originally posted by Three


The only mistake you have is believing Carey has a Player's invite. She is 13th in the YTD standings which is how the Player's invites are given. Should even one team decline Carey would be the first replacement invite. To be honest I think Team Carey is the weakest of the bunch so I liked the way my list worked out better, lol.



I shouldn't have said all four teams should get an invite. Fleury gets one for being #12. I think it's probably Carey gets one, as she's #13. Rocque at #17 is a maybe, and Einarson at #20 is a doubtful.

Last year's Player's got all the way down to the 19th ranked team playing, as teams 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 18 declined.

I still would bet Carey gets the spot, but other teams still could take it.

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02-28-17 12:40AM
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UnattachedFC
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

quote:
Originally posted by Squiggsy



Last year's Player's got all the way down to the 19th ranked team playing, as teams 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 18 declined.

I still would bet Carey gets the spot, but other teams still could take it.



You're wrong on that. You took the Two-year when they use the YTD/1 year for Players'. I think between 0 and 1 team declined the call-up looking at it. Not sure if Kim declined because I don't remember which rankings were used if it was the one before or after Uiseong.

It's rare to see many teams decline for Players' because it's the last tournament of the year and 75% of the teams have finished their season 2 months before and it's the only spiel remaining.

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02-28-17 10:13AM
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Puzzled

The link to curling.ca shows the 2015/17 leader being picked before the 2016/17 leaders I believe. Does this change the teams qualifying?

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02-28-17 10:56AM
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Re: Puzzled

quote:
Originally posted by Curlwalker
The link to curling.ca shows the 2015/17 leader being picked before the 2016/17 leaders I believe. Does this change the teams qualifying?


I think your right the 2 year total gets in before the defaults

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02-28-17 10:59AM
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Curlwalker
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Not so puzzled

Looked again.. I guess you are saying that the two replacement teams for the scotties and canada cup will come before the 2015/17 leader and those will come from the 2016/17 list.

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02-28-17 11:32AM
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Women's ROTR Qualifiying for Ottawa

quote:
Originally posted by UnattachedFC


You're wrong on that. You took the Two-year when they use the YTD/1 year for Players'. I think between 0 and 1 team declined the call-up looking at it. Not sure if Kim declined because I don't remember which rankings were used if it was the one before or after Uiseong.

It's rare to see many teams decline for Players' because it's the last tournament of the year and 75% of the teams have finished their season 2 months before and it's the only spiel remaining.



Oops. My mistake. I didn't sort by YTD, and sorted by 2 year running total.

The only team in the top 12 not there was #10, EunJun Kim from Korea.

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02-28-17 11:40AM
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Squiggsy
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Re: Not so puzzled

quote:
Originally posted by Curlwalker
Looked again.. I guess you are saying that the two replacement teams for the scotties and canada cup will come before the 2015/17 leader and those will come from the 2016/17 list.


You just go down the list and fill them in order. Homan gets the 1 spot. Because Carey didn't medal at Worlds, Jones gets the 2 spot. Jones won the 3 spot, but already qualified, so this goes to Flaxey. Homan won the 4 spot, but already qualified, so this goes to Sweeting.

The 5 spot is the two year total. Homan, Jones, Sweeting and Flaxey are all qualified from above. Right now it's Carey in the lead, with Rocque, Einarson, and Fleury behind. They don't select the 2 year spot before the 2016-17 spots, but they do keep going down the list on the two year total to get someone, unlike every other spot where they go to the one year total.

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02-28-17 06:39PM
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Nixon retirement

The article on curling.ca on Amy Nixon's retirement says.......Quote...

In addition to the medal, the Carey team won $21,900 and earned 36.741 Canadian Team Ranking System (CTRS) points.
The points wont do Carey much good as she is too far back in the rankings to earn one of the points-based berths into the Tim Hortons Roar of the Rings Canadian Curling Trials. The team will have to come through a pre-qualifying competition to keep its hopes alive for a trip to the 2018 Winter Olympics.


Seems even curling canada is confused....

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03-13-17 09:00PM
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Remember: Curling Canada fills in the qualification list in the order presented, any duplicate team is replaced by the highest unqualified one year points team but the two year spot at number 5 goes to the highest unqualified two year team. This is my interpretation of how it is stated on their website.

After the Scotties it stands like this:

1 - 2015 Canada Cup - Homan
2 - 2016 Scotties - Carey* replaced by Jones
3 - 2016 Canada Cup - Jones replaced by Flaxey
4 - 2017 Scotties - Homan replaced by Sweeting
5 - CTRS two year total - Carey
6 - CTRS one year total - Scheidegger
7 - CTRS one year total - Englot

* = Carey did not medal at worlds and was replaced by highest CTRS team for that paticular 2015-16 season.

One year:
1. Homan 402.018
2. Jones 354.481
3. Flaxey 308.877
4. Sweeting 278.880
5. Scheidegger 271.591
6. Englot 264.412
7. Fleury 201.515
8. Carey 189.416
9. Harrison 184.336

Two year:
1. Homan 985.726
2. Jones 780.417
3. Sweeting 626.156
4. Flaxey 502.055
5. Carey 497.727
6. Rocque 456.964
7. Einarson 450.217
8. Fleury 441.394
9. Englot 433.689

Realistically Fleury needs a win in the Players to catch up to Scheidegger/Englot. A win by either Fleury/Einarson/Englot at the Players probably puts them ahead of Carey on the two year list which would be a real problem for Carey. Currently Carey has to hope one team declines their Player's invitation so she gets an invite and a chance to get more points. Also Englot and Carey are the only two teams that don't currently have an invite to the Champions Cup. (Rocque and Harrison have no chance at an automatic berth but will get invites to Summerside.)

One thing I'm not sure about is how Amy Nixon's departure affects Team Carey's points...I am pretty sure they keep all of their points to date but maybe they won't get full credit for any future points because Cathy O is taking over at third ? I have a feeling they may get only 3/4 of the points earned should they actually get any more points. Can somebody clarify this .... Gerry?

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03-13-17 09:10PM
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Harvey Hacksmasher

 

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quote:
Originally posted by Three
Remember: Curling Canada fills in the qualification list in the order presented, any duplicate team is replaced by the highest unqualified one year points team but the two year spot at number 5 goes to the highest unqualified two year team. This is my interpretation of how it is stated on their website.

After the Scotties it stands like this:

1 - 2015 Canada Cup - Homan
2 - 2016 Scotties - Carey* replaced by Jones
3 - 2016 Canada Cup - Jones replaced by Flaxey
4 - 2017 Scotties - Homan replaced by Sweeting
5 - CTRS two year total - Carey
6 - CTRS one year total - Scheidegger
7 - CTRS one year total - Englot

* = Carey did not medal at worlds and was replaced by highest CTRS team for that paticular 2015-16 season.

One year:
1. Homan 402.018
2. Jones 354.481
3. Flaxey 308.877
4. Sweeting 278.880
5. Scheidegger 271.591
6. Englot 264.412
7. Fleury 201.515
8. Carey 189.416
9. Harrison 184.336

Two year:
1. Homan 985.726
2. Jones 780.417
3. Sweeting 626.156
4. Flaxey 502.055
5. Carey 497.727
6. Rocque 456.964
7. Einarson 450.217
8. Fleury 441.394
9. Englot 433.689

Realistically Fleury needs a win in the Players to catch up to Scheidegger/Englot. A win by either Fleury/Einarson/Englot at the Players probably puts them ahead of Carey on the two year list which would be a real problem for Carey. Currently Carey has to hope one team declines their Player's invitation so she gets an invite and a chance to get more points. Also Englot and Carey are the only two teams that don't currently have an invite to the Champions Cup. (Rocque and Harrison have no chance at an automatic berth but will get invites to Summerside.)

One thing I'm not sure about is how Amy Nixon's departure affects Team Carey's points...I am pretty sure they keep all of their points to date but maybe they won't get full credit for any future points because Cathy O is taking over at third ? I have a feeling they may get only 3/4 of the points earned should they actually get any more points. Can somebody clarify this .... Gerry?



Amy being gone will only affect their world tour oom there for Carey may not be in the slams right away. As far as ctrs points go they have 3 remaining members so keeps all of those points.

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03-15-17 05:14PM
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I think Fluery's easiest path to the Ottawa is for Scheidegger to win the Players. If Scheidegger passes Sweeting on the one year, she gets Homan's 4 slot for the 2017 Scotties. Sweeting then gets the 5 slot for the 2 year and Englot and Fluery get the 6 and 7 slots respectively for the 1 year. Carey would be the odd team out.

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03-15-17 06:51PM
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Points

Does Scheidegger have to win the players or just finish well. She seems to have only 7 spiel results counting toward her YTD total so do any points she gets add in where Sweetings are only added if she improves on another score?

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03-15-17 07:05PM
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Re: Points

quote:
Originally posted by Curlwalker
Does Scheidegger have to win the players or just finish well. She seems to have only 7 spiel results counting toward her YTD total so do any points she gets add in where Sweetings are only added if she improves on another score?


You gotta it right. Hopefully Sportsnet actually talks about all this stuff.

Last edited by Three on 03-15-17 at 07:48PM

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03-24-17 12:04PM
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So the Player's field was announced yesterday and none of the top 12 Women's teams declined. Carey is out of luck at #13 and is very vulnerable to losing her spot to Ottawa. Should be fun to watch to see who makes the playoffs/semis/finals to see if Carey or Fleury grabs the final Ottawa invite.

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03-24-17 12:39PM
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It is very good that lots of people are keeping their pencils sharp. Clearly the teams themselves are super attentive. But for the rest of us, it is definitely an onerous process. Lots at stake. Thanks for this thread. Yes. Sports analysts could benefit from following along here. It is tough to transfer all of the scenarios into ordinary talk. It makes tiebreaker scenarios seem #mickeyMouse.

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03-24-17 04:40PM
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Who has the best bet to take Homans's Brier spot now that she has a guaranteed medal? Flaxey? All the wannabe's are running to Perth next weekend to get some points, Really Middaugh as our olympic rep? Some of these ladies need a reality check,

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03-24-17 07:58PM
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Amy Nixon is listed amongst the wannabes...but is COC taking her place.

It will be interesting to see if any of these teams win the event"

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03-24-17 08:01PM
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quote:
Originally posted by decade
Who has the best bet to take Homans's Brier spot now that she has a guaranteed medal? Flaxey? All the wannabe's are running to Perth next weekend to get some points, Really Middaugh as our olympic rep? Some of these ladies need a reality check,




If you scroll up you can see my analysis. Middaugh has no chance of an Ottawa invite but will certainly get to Summerside and I'm sure they know that so not sure why they need a reality check. Perhaps they enjoy curling in Scotland and an afford it, good for them.

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03-26-17 02:27AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Three




If you scroll up you can see my analysis. Middaugh has no chance of an Ottawa invite but will certainly get to Summerside and I'm sure they know that so not sure why they need a reality check. Perhaps they enjoy curling in Scotland and an afford it, good for them.



I think that she still has an outside shot.

If Middaugh makes the finals at Perth and Fleury doesn't qualify in her last two tournaments (Players' and Perth) AND Scheidegger passes Sweeting for 1-year, Middaugh would get that direct spot. Muirhead got 44 points for her win at Perth last year. I expect that winner will get something similar. She needs 29.5567 to pass Fleury considering that we have to take out Middaugh's 8th best result of this season.

Now, we have to see how many points will be available for that tournament, but she only needs the tournament to have a SFM higher than 4.2223. For a finals apperance to be good enough, it must be higher than 5.739. Just to give a comparison to last year, it was a 6.3695. I don't expect it to be lower this year for a finals apperance to not be good enough. I think it's possible that semis gets her something, but the tournament would need to be higher than 6,9545 and I doubt that, it would go that high.

Fleury wouldn't improve her 8th best score if she doesn't qualify in both of her events.

Scheidegger needs in the 1 year to pass Sweeting in that. She's technically 7 points back, but she only needs to tie whatever Sweeting does in points if they both make the playoffs, because Sweeting has to deduct her 11 points from the Canada Cup from her top results.

So you're telling me there's a chance

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(sorry double post)

Last edited by UnattachedFC on 03-26-17 at 02:35AM

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quote:
Originally posted by curlerbroad
Amy Nixon is listed amongst the wannabes...but is COC taking her place.

It will be interesting to see if any of these teams win the event"



It also says Urech is playing for Feltscher even though Howald has been playing with them since at least the Swiss nationals.

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