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11-03-17 11:11PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

Betting Lines

The Trials are getting close. It's time for pretend bets with an amateurish betting line.

Ladies first:

Roth 2 to 1 A very prestigious win in the Canad Inns at my favorite curling club in Portage, Manitoba. They sit an impressive 7th in the WCT YTD standings with 152.3 points. A good record of 22 wins and 13 losses from a very good schedule. They qualified in 3 out of 5 events.

Sinclair 2 to 1 co-favorite. They won The Shorty Jenkins. It wasn't the best Shorty field I've ever seen, but it's still The Shorty. The qualified in The Masters and in 4 of their 6 events while getting a record of 24-14. Sinclair sits 10th on the YTD leaderboard with 140.8 points.

Christensen 3 to 1. They've qualified in 3 of their 7 events included the semi-finals in Oakville and in Sweden. They are 19th on the YTD with 92.3 points and sport a 23-16 record.

I like Christensen to win this. As the Olympic Dream becomes very real, it will come down to keeping cool. I have faith in all three skips performing well; but I think, as a team, Christensen will be as cool as a well-oiled machine.

Ben Tucker (good luck to all)

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11-03-17 11:15PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

How an amateur does a Morning Line:

For the gals, there are 3 teams. That means the average odds should be 3 to 1...but that leaves no room for the bookie (me) to profit. So the total of the odds should be 9 (3 to 1 plus 3 to 1 plus 3 to 1). My line equals 7 (2 to 1 plus 2 to 1 plus 3 to 1). So I'm scamming y'all to the tune of around 20%.

Ben Tucker

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11-03-17 11:55PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

Men's Line

Shuster 1 to 1 even money favorite. They got 2nd at a decent spiel at the historic Granite in Winnipeg. They've qualified in half of their 6 events and that has them sitting a respectable 20th with a record of 31-23 against the toughest in the world. They qualified in a SLAM.

Clark 4 to 1. This is the value bet of the week. They've qualified in an impressive 4 out of 5 events. They are the unfunded 2nd place USA team on the WCT leaderboard with 82.8 points and that's good for the 23rd spot. The schedule isn't as tough as Shuster's, but their 22-9 record is righteous and they only trail Shuster by 3 points and that's with one less event.

McCormick 3 to 1. What can I say? Sometimes Heater can really play and sometimes...well...sometimes it's just confusing. They only qualified in 2 of 6 events, but they do sport a respectable 23-15 record for 63.4 points (good for 28th). They made the semis in the Stu Sells and won the St. Paul spiel (not the toughest of events). I fear that the team is better with Richie R on the ice and that might make for some trouble with the dynamics.

Brown 6 to 1 They don't really have a signature weekend to point at to say that they are ready to roll, but they did qualify in 3 of their 5 events and sit a respectable 38th with 46.2 points. They do, however, have a losing record of 13-17 (granted; against very good competition).

Birr 8 to 1 They have qualified in 2 of their 3 events, but their record is only 8-9 and they haven't been playing in the tougher events. Maybe they miss Richie and maybe Clawson will jell into the team at just the right time. A scant 25.2 points for 70th place gives them the look of an outsider in this event, but don't forget last year's Nationals.

5 teams so the line should total 25 and this line totals 23, so I'm only robbing you of 8% which is extremely generous of me.

I really wanted to lower Face from 1/1 down to 4/5 so I could quote the famous bettors axiom: There is not a man alive who can feed his family getting 4 to 5 (don't play odds-on favorites). In fact, let's do that. Shuster is now 4 to 5.

Most of you know me and you know that I seldom "chalk out" with a boring pick of the favorite. I don't want to disappoint you.

I'm picking Heater. If FaceTeam loses, you need to consider which of these other four teams are most likely to beat them. I think McCormick is that team. They have the dynamic skip and a solid front end. I don't know how or if they plan to use Richie, but I'm not sure that I care. Maybe he's simply an extra cannon they can use if things aren't going well. Whatever. I'm going with flash over solid play. I'll take my chances.



Good luck to all. I know that sounds trite, but I mean it. Lots of really nice guys and really good players in this field.

Ben Tucker

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11-05-17 11:33AM
OrangeKing is offline Click Here to See the Profile for OrangeKing Click here to Send OrangeKing a Private Message Find more posts by OrangeKing Add OrangeKing to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
OrangeKing
Knee-Slider

 

Registered: Oct 2015
Location:
Posts: 8

quote:
Originally posted by tuck
How an amateur does a Morning Line:

For the gals, there are 3 teams. That means the average odds should be 3 to 1...but that leaves no room for the bookie (me) to profit. So the total of the odds should be 9 (3 to 1 plus 3 to 1 plus 3 to 1). My line equals 7 (2 to 1 plus 2 to 1 plus 3 to 1). So I'm scamming y'all to the tune of around 20%.

Ben Tucker



The way odds are normally expressed in sports betting, you've actually scammed yourself as the bookie, haha. "2 to 1" would mean that if I bet $1, I'd win $2, and get my dollar back (when you bet on sports, it's not like putting a coin in a slot machine where that wager is lost forever).

If a bettor were to bet $1 on all three teams, they would break even if Sinclair or Roth won, and make a profit of $1 if Christensen won!

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11-05-17 08:51PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

Oops. I need to redo my math. The line is temporarily closed.

It's not like too many are rushing to the windows here. #curlingdeadzone?

Ben Tucker

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11-06-17 09:03AM
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AlanMacNeill
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 941

I think the final will be Shuster v Birr...I think Shuster takes it.

I'm also putting my marker down on a medal at the olympics for them as well.

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11-06-17 10:08AM
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biterbar
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 564

quote:
Originally posted by tuck
Oops. I need to redo my math. The line is temporarily closed.

It's not like too many are rushing to the windows here. #curlingdeadzone?

Ben Tucker



Wait, I bet $1 total on each of three teams and I break even on a $2 payout (Roth and Sinclair) and make a $1 on the $3?

Roth and Sinclair battle to the end but Roth prevails.

Shuster wins the men's, my upset pick is Clark.

__________________
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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11-07-17 10:49AM
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Clappy
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Feb 2017
Location: Livonia, MI
Posts: 36

With these lines, I'll take Clark and Sinclair.

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11-07-17 03:19PM
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TakeItOut!
Hitting Paint

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: Fairport, NY
Posts: 141

Odds...

What are the odds that Tuck makes an appearance at the Baxter Arena?

__________________
Joe Calabrese

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11-07-17 11:06PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

The forecast for Omaha is seasonably warm with a 10% chance of light rain and an 80% chance of Tuck.

You've been warned.

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11-07-17 11:12PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

For those wagering on Birr, they did qualify in a good Winnipeg spiel last weekend through the B bracket. It was nice to see. Also nice to see was Pete Fenson qualifying in that spiel through the A.

Has anybody heard how that spiel ended up?

Ben Tucker

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11-08-17 11:28AM
biterbar is offline Click Here to See the Profile for biterbar Click here to Send biterbar a Private Message Find more posts by biterbar Add biterbar to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
biterbar
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 564

quote:
Originally posted by tuck
For those wagering on Birr, they did qualify in a good Winnipeg spiel last weekend through the B bracket. It was nice to see. Also nice to see was Pete Fenson qualifying in that spiel through the A.

Has anybody heard how that spiel ended up?

Ben Tucker



Obviously the ice melted after or during the QF draw. There is nothing on any site. text Pete and see what happened for the rest of us.

__________________
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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11-08-17 01:38PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

Birr and Fenson both qualified; but both lost in the quarter-finals.

Ben Tucker (I tell you people who is going to win and then you post picks that have other teams. Come on, now.)

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11-09-17 09:29AM
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AlanMacNeill
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 941

quote:
Originally posted by tuck
(I tell you people who is going to win and then you post picks that have other teams. Come on, now.)


Nuttin personal, but over the years, that's proven to be the smart call :p

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11-09-17 06:44PM
tuck is offline Click Here to See the Profile for tuck Click here to Send tuck a Private Message Find more posts by tuck Add tuck to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2583

HA! I'm something like 8 for the last 10 in Women's and I've hit the last 2 in Men's. I had the cold exacta (not boxed) in Women's last year.

Fine. Let the disrespect rain down upon my uncovered head. Go ahead with your silly picks. Just note that the new lines are draconian and I'll probably make enough to retire:

Sinclair 1 to 1
Roth 1 to 1
Christensen 2 to 1

Shuster 4 to 5
Clark 3 to 1
McCormick 3 to 1
Brown 5 to 1
Birr 5 to 1

HA! Not finding value in those odds? Too bad. It's not like I have any competition for you to take your money to for your losing picks. HA!

OK, just kidding around.

Ben Tucker (look for me in crowd on Monday and Tuesday 11am local time draws...don't even pretend that you won't be watching at work...we know you watch at work)

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Shuster wins US Olympic Curling Trials

(OMAHA, Nebraska) – John Shuster set the tone early in the game that he was not going to be denied a fourth trip to the Olympic Winter Games.

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