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04-14-15 12:39AM
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tuck
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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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Kentucky Derby 2015

It's early, but I might get busy soon; so here is the current projected starting field with projected (not mine) odds:

American Pharoah 3/1 the misspelling is from the owner, not me
Dortmund 4/1 named after a German soccer team
Carpe Diem 6/1
Mubtaahij 12/1 my pick so far...you heard it here first
Firing Line 12/1
Materiality 15/1
International Star 15/1
Frosted 15/1 great value and (by far) the most handsome colt in the field
Upstart 15/1
Far Right 25/1 the rest of these cost six or seven figures, he cost $2,500
Stanford 30/1
Danzig Moon 30/1
War Story 30/1 excellent longshot
One Lucky Dane 30/1
El Kabeir 30/1
It's A Knockout 40/1 son of Lemon Drop Kid so could be a late bloomer
Bolo 40/1 bred for the distance, but also bred for turf racing...not bad
Tencendur 50/1
Mr. Z 50/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 beautifully bred for this race

3 weeks away, so there will certainly be horses withdrawing. The next two on the points leaderboard are:

Made From Lucky who would probably be in that 50 to 1 range
KEEN ICE who will be the pick of every real curler

If I get time, I'll post a short bio on each horse and reasons they might win and reasons they might lose and maybe a little trivia on each one. I have pages and pages of notes.

Ben Tucker
(people who follow my betting advice deserve to lose their money)

Last edited by tuck on 04-14-15 at 12:44AM

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04-14-15 10:09AM
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AlanMacNeill
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Is there anywhere I can place $2 on Ocho Ocho Ocho coming in 8th?

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04-14-15 06:44PM
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tuck
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Sorry, A MacA, but none that I'm aware of. They say you can bet on anything in Vegas, but this would be a new one even for them.

OK, we'll start with Ocho Ocho Ocho.

When yearlings are auctioned off, they don't yet have a real name...just a pet name. It's the right of the new owners to name their colt (and I imagine that's pretty fun). So for the auction, the foals are given a number called a "hip number". This colt's hip number was 888.

888 is extremely well bred. His father is the great Street Sense. His damsire (father of his mother...they never really use the mother's name because so many of them never race because they can be too valuable as broodmares) is the great South African winner: Horse Chestnut. This one should last the long 1 1/4 miles of The Derby. If you search youtube for the Delta Downs Jackpot, you'll see him win a quality race showing a ton of heart. Alas, if you watch, you can also see him finish a disappointing 3rd in the Bluegrass and a bad 8th in the San Felipe. He is owned by Deron Pearson (Nexis I.T. California) who bought him as a 2 year old for $200,000...which is average for this field.

Ben Tucker

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04-14-15 06:53PM
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tuck
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HOW TO HAVE FUN BETTING THE DERBY:

Experienced horse players would now jump right into the trifecta and superfecta wagering. I'll get there; unless I get too busy to post. Let's start out more simply:

If you are around a bar or someplace that does off-track-betting, it can be a hoot. To be more involved, pick any horse and put down $10 on his number to win. Then during the post parade (this is important) memorize your jockey's silks. Every owner has silks specific to his/her stable. Once you know your jockey's silks, find your horse right at the start and keep your eyes only on him. Don't worry about missing anything; they replay the race 5 or 6 times. Only live is the adrenaline rush should your horse challenge for the lead.

Now if your tastes run towards longshots, you may not want to just do a Win bet. Around 10/1 you might want to do a Win/Place bet. A $5 win/place bet costs $10. You have $5 bet that your horse will win. You also have $5 bet that your horse will get at least second. If the odds on your horse are 15/1 or longer, you might want to consider a Win/Place/Show. A $5 wps costs $15. You'll get paid a little if your horse gets third...paid pretty good if your horse gets second...and all three bets win if your horse gets first. It's an easier way to bet on and cheer for a longshot.

Ben Tucker

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04-14-15 07:53PM
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I'm a big fan of boxing exactas/tris/supers but going with $1. Cuts the payout in half, but conversely makes it cheaper to box...well, makes it the same as doing $2 bets anyway.

Is Gary Stevens on a horse? Borel? I'm going to miss Napravnik, her and Stevens came through for me in The Preakness back in 2013.

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04-14-15 08:03PM
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The ancient Gary Stevens (we are about the same age) has been riding Firing Line.

Firing Line is the special horse that has twice come within a nose of beating undefeated co-favorite Dortmund. Escaping Dortmund's enormous shadow (Dortmund is huge...looks like somebody crossed Secretariat with a hippo), Firing Line went to Sunland and easily won the Sunland Derby.

Firing Line is a son of Line Of David out of a Hold For Gold mare. He's owned by Arnold Zetcher who was the CEO of Talbots (for you males, that's a clothing store).

If you like Dortmund at 4/1, you gotta love Firing Line at 12/1 to at least hit the board.

Ben Tucker

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04-14-15 08:38PM
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WAYS TO MAKE SURE YOU WIN

Bet every horse to win for $2, that costs $40. Need a 20-1 longshot to win to return your money but you will "win" no matter who finishes first.

Have a viewing party, pick horses from a hat and everybody puts in $x amount, winner gets the pot.

HARD WAY TO WIN - get a bunch of friends to bet a beer and then you have to pick who finishes LAST. This is way harder than you think.

Phil D - I love to part wheel the tri so that they don't cost as much. Probably will wheel Dortmund/American Pharoah in first and second in the tri and hope. Will also wheel those two in exactors (CAN). Will also throw out the two favorites for other bets. WPS on some of the longer shots.

JH
still studying

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04-15-15 08:38AM
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What JH and other experienced horse players will be looking forward to on Derby Day is playing the trifecta and the superfecta. The Kentucky Derby has become well known for having large payouts for these two bets; owing to the large field of 20 and the fact that most of the 20 are high caliber colts.

An exacta is picking the first two horses in the exact order. So if you think that two horses tower over the field, you can bet them or you can box them. Boxing them is to bet the exacta both ways (say American Pharoah first with Dortmund second AND Dortmund first with American Pharoah second). This is sometimes called a quinella rather than an exacta box.

The trifecta is the same, just adding the third place horse. It is hard to do, even in a field of 8 horses that are all older and you have a good idea which ones perform well at the distance. It is very, very hard to do with a field of 20 horses. So what many player do (myself included) is to box more than three horses. We'll box 4 horses, giving ourselves a margin of error that lets us screw up and pick one stinker. Last year I used 5 horses in my box.

A 3 horse box at $1 costs $6. A 4 horse box costs $24. A 5 horse box costs $60.

JH might "wheel" a horse or two. If he likes one particular horse to win, he will "key" that horse on top. Let's say he settles on Dortmund. That will be his only first place horse. Then let's say he likes 7 horses and he'll use them for 2nd and 3rd place. That would cost $42. A true wheel would be if he takes a couple of horses for the top two and uses ALL the remaining horses for third. Dortmund/American Pharoah with Dortmund/American Pharoah with ALL costs $36.

Horse racing always capitalizes ALL.

The superfecta adds the fourth place finisher. Very hard to hit unless you are willing to wager a large amount.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 08:58AM
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tuck
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Over the last 14 years, the Kentucky Derby trifecta has paid out in a range between $220 to $66,000 with the mode average about $1,500. That's for the $1 bet. Often the numbers are reported using the traditional $2 bet. It can actually be played at 50 cents, so just cut all the costs and payouts I've been using in half.

The superfecta since the turn of the millenium in 2000 has paid around $15,000 with a range of $7,000 to $70,000. A 5 horse trifecta box at $1 costs $60. A 5 horse superfecta box costs double that: $120. The superfecta, however, can be played as low as 10 cents...so $12.

The reason the difficult bets pay well is that at least one longshot seems to get into the top 3 or 4 finishers every year. If you're going to box only the favorites, you need to keep the number of horses you use down or take one horse and wheel him or key him.

Better there is a better way and that's what I'll be looking at. I'll try to do two things: I'll try to poke holes and look for flaws in the favorites (very hard to do) and look for reasons that the longshots might exceed expectations (very, very hard to do). I'll share my thoughts.

In the meantime, Mubtaahij will win this year's Kentucky Derby.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 07:22PM
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tuck
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MUBTAAHIJ AND FROSTED

Mubtaahij is owned by Sheik Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum, the Interior Minister of Dubai.

Frosted is owned by Sheik Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai.

They are cousins.

Mubtaahij just won the United Arab Emirates Derby and did so in convincing fashion. He pulled away quickly without ever being asked. He pulled away with never changing his lead. Imagine what he'll do once he changes leads? He's trained by Michael de Kock, so he'll change leads. Imagine what he'll do if he adds Lasix for the first time.

To look at Frosted, you have to look very close and much deeper. A second place finish in the Ramsen Stakes may look disappointing, but the inside rail path was way the fastest that day in Aqueduct and Frosted ran 3 wide most of the trip. He was way the best horse. In the Fountain Of Youth, Frosted got to the lead at the top of the stretch and looked like he was going to bury Upstart and It's A Knockout, but he suddenly stopped. If you research it, you'll find that they did the minor surgical procedure afterwards to prevent his palate from flipping and blocking his windpipe. The Wood Memorial is the real Frosted and that was a thing of beauty.

Can the Sheik cousins run 1st and 2nd for Dubai? Yep, they just might.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 08:04PM
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American Pharoah will be the favorite from now up to the start of The Derby. Parimutuel betting has floating odds. You might get there early and bet American Pharoah at 3 to 1, but his odds might drift as others bet on him and you might only get 2 to 1. Having your odds drift is a weird experience. Having them drop means other agree with you, but you feel screwed. Having the odds rise should make you happy as you are about to get paid better, but you worry why nobody else is betting on him.

Lots of good horse players don't do much research or thinking. They just watch the odds move the last half hour before the race and then bet at the last minute. If any horse has dropping odds, they assume the smart people are betting that horse and follow along. This is called watching which horse is "taking money". I've never done that and I doubt that I ever will.

I will now start using the correct spelling of pharaoh, even though the horse is really named Pharoah.

American Pharaoh is owned by the Zayat family who are originally from Egypt. AP's sire is also owned by the Zayat family. His name is Pioneer of the Nile (they use lots of Egyptian references when naming their horses). Pioneer of the Nile is a very important figure in this story.

P. Nile was a highly regarded young horse who won a major derby prep in impressive fashion and then went to The Derby as one of the favorites...exactly like American Pharaoh is today. PNile raced near the lead for most of the Derby...then took the lead at the top of the stretch...and then tired. An incredible longshot came scooting up the rail (ridden by Calvin Borel) to win. (Mine That Bird at 50.6 to 1...$1 trifecta paid $21,000...$1 superfecta paid $270,000)

I predict that American Pharaoh will do exactly as his sire. I think he will be brilliant right up until the stretch run. Then others will pass him. The question is: How many will pass him? AP is extremely good. Even if he tires in the stretch, he could easily hang tough for a spot in the top four.

My initial thinking is that quite a few horses are going to pass AP in the stretch. When Pioneer of the Nile ran second, it wasn't a high caliber year nor a quality field. I mean; Mine That Bird won. In the Preakness, the owners of a filly saw the weakness of the crop and entered her. (OK that was an exceptional filly...Rachael Alexandra...but the filly was favored in that race which is a condemnation of the field)

If American Pharaoh could look somewhere in his bloodlines for a little extra stamina, I'd love to rate him higher than Pioneer of the Nile in 2009; but I can't find any. His dam's side is all sprint and miles. His damsire is Yankee Gentleman who was a great sprinter. The problem is: they used to look for 5 furlong races for Yankee Gentleman because he had trouble lasting 6 furlongs. The Derby is 10 furlongs.

I'm not yet sure if I will TOSS American Pharaoh or use him underneath in the trifecta/superfecta. I am sure, however, that I can't endorse him to any of my friends. He'll be the favorite. Every real expert in the land will pick him to win. You should probably go with the real experts and not listen to me.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 08:45PM
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tuck
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Carpe Diem is owned Stonestreet Stables which is owned by Barbara Banke. Barbara Banke also owns Jackson Family Wineries. Ms. Banke is the widow of the late Jess Jackson.

Jess Jackson was a successful lawyer who decided to get into making wine. He and his then-wife started Kendall Jackson Wines. Jess was extremely aggressive and grew the business at an insane rate...quite successfully. His then-wife hadn't signed up for all of that, so they parted ways. Jess continued to buy up every acre of wine country in California that came on the market. Eventually he married his lovely real estate attorney, Barbara Banke, who specialized in getting permits from the EPA by proposing solid environmental plans.

Jess Jackson also started Stonestreet Stables. Mr. Jackson's full name was Jess Stonestreet Jackson.

When Jess died after a battle with melanoma cancer, everybody thought that Barbara would relax the winery expansion and ease up with Stonestreet Stables. Everyone was wrong. Flat wrong. Could not have been more wrong. Barbara continues to bid on grape land and has even moved up into Oregon and Washington. She has not only remained aggressive with Stonestreet Stables, she purchased Carpe Diem as a 2 year old at auction for...wait for it....$1,600,000.

Truthfully, Carpe Diem is probably not the pricey-est colt on the planet. Stonestreet has a colt that they would never sell. He is a son of Curlin from the great mare Rachel Alexandra. That colt's name is Jess's Dream. I would estimate his value at open auction to be around 3 million.

Carpe Diem is a very good colt who won the Bluegrass Stakes convincingly. He'll get the Derby distance because he's a son of Giant's Causeway. His speed should come from his damsire, Unbridled's Song...but I haven't seen much speed just yet. In fact, I've seen precious little speed. I don't think he's fast enough yet to win the Derby. It is important to note, however, that Johnny Velazquez is the jockey. Johnny V is Todd Pletcher's favorite jockey. V could ride any of 4 or 5 Pletcher horses in The Derby and he's staying with Carpe Diem.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 09:12PM
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Dortmund, like I posted earlier, is a huge horse. You could serve dinner for four on this colt's butt. Part moose, part hippo, part horse, he's dang impressive.

Dortmund is also undefeated. The times he has been tested, he has shown great heart to go along with his great talent. The bloodlines aren't great for this distance. 3 of his 4 grandfathers were sprinters. His sire is Big Brown and many believe that Big Brown's stamina came from chemical injections.

Still, I respect heart. Of all the early speeds in this race, I think he'll be the one to gut it out and finish somewhere in the top four.

International Star is owned by the most respected couple in racing, Ken and Sarah Ramsey. The Ramseys own lots of horses and support many tracks across the nation. Most of their better horses race on turf and the Ramsey's don't hide the fact that they prefer turf racing over dirt. Still, they coughed up $300,000 for this dirt runner in the hopes of getting to the Derby.

International Star is the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, who was a great horse but isn't a great sire for imparting stamina. I. S. is out of a French Deputy mare and will need to look their for stamina. I don't believe in dosage numbers for races under 1 1/2...much...but International Star's dosage number is 4.09 and that's way too high. A smaller colt, he'll have to avoid a post position anywhere near the rail. A closer, he'll need a good trip. I respect that he won the Louisiana Derby, but I don't like his chances here.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 09:23PM
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tuck
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If it's raining on Derby Day, I kinda like American Pharaoh.

Ben Tucker

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04-15-15 09:57PM
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American Pharaoh is owned by Ahmed Zayat, but so are El Kabeir and Mr. Z.

El Kabeir is a son of Scat Daddy. Scat Daddy did OK at 1 1/8, but not many of his children do well on dirt over a mile. He's been more successful siring runners out of turf mares with many winners going long. El Kabeir is out of an Unbridled's Song mare and it looks like a whole lot of speed and not much stamina in this colt. I think El Kabeir was exposed in the Withers Stakes when giving up that big lead to Far From Over. His third place in the Wood Memorial wasn't terrible. I believe they will change jockeys and go with Calvin Borel for the Derby.

Mr. Z is from Malibu Moon and it doesn't get much better than that. He's out of a Storm Cat mare and I'm not thrilled with Storm Cat as a damsire. Storm Cat has had thousands of foals from his daughters and only a precious few have gone further than a mile. Not a small sample size. Mr. Z has already raced 12 times which is alot. His trainer, D Wayne Lucas, does like to race his colts frequently...but this is too much. Mr. Z has managed only 1 win in those 12 starts. His third place finish in the Arkansas doesn't instill confidence.

I won't be using either of these Zayat horses in any bets. At least, I'm fairly sure so far. Things change.

Ben Tucker

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04-17-15 06:22PM
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Tuck has given us quite a bit of good info on the horsies. What he has failed to mention is the importance of post position. Take one of the favorites and put him in the 1 post and it is party over. 19 horses on the outside to deal with and at least 2 or 3 will be sprinting to the front. The 1 post favorite finds himself 8 lengths back at the first turn and in major traffic trouble. Now they have to move out from the rail and run wide the rest of the race. Makes it an even longer race for that horse.

Post positions will most likely be drawn on Thursday prior to the Derby. Sometimes it is shown live and the anguish of the trainers is great to watch. Morning lines are then set based on the post draw. A 3-1 favorite can drop to 5-1 based on post. There have been exceptions in the past (most recently Big Brown from the 20 hole) but they are exceptions. Trainers like to get the 6-10 holes so they have options. The outside extra gates (17 to 20) are not favorable as well, really far from the rail and a long way to go to get there.

All this adds up to "that is why it is called gambling". Mine That Bird proved that (50-1 shot).

JH
Phils rounding into form on their way to 100+ losses

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04-17-15 08:47PM
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Registered: May 2014
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The large field is what makes the Derby so great and so frustrating at the same time. Like jhcurl said, post position is crucial.

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04-17-15 08:59PM
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True and well said, JH. Only the very large Dortmund can draw the 1 post and not be lowered in the eyes of bettors. While few have won from the far outside gates, some have hit the top four. Last year is was Commanding Curve coming from post 19 to get second place at long odds.

Next horse: KEEN ICE

ALL REAL curlers will be betting on and cheering for Keen Ice...if he gets to run. Currently he sits as number 22 and they only run 20, so he'll need 2 defections. That's historically common. Some of these horses will catch a cold or flu and miss training and that will have them withdraw. Some owners will come to their senses and not run horses that have no chance...despite the fact that their dream is to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Some horse, God forbid, will get injured during training...let's hope the injuries are minor. So Keen Ice has a very good chance of being in the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd.

Keen Ice is beautifully bred for this race. A son of CURLIN (my favorite horse so he should always be in CAPS) and out of an Awesome Again mare. Both Curlin and Awesome Again won the Breeders Cup Classic, so distance is not a problem for our colt. The problem is speed. Keen Ice has done OK so far, but just OK. He's always running hard at the end; he just has too much ground to make up because the boy is slow.

Betting on a slow horse is seldom a good idea. However, the longer the race the slower they all go. The race does not always go to the fastest. Sometimes it goes to the one that lasts the longest. Keen Ice will have a legitimate shot to win if he gets to run. He certainly could make the top 4. If he's racing, he'll be on my betting tickets.

Ben Tucker

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04-17-15 09:44PM
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The superfecta and the trifecta for The Derby tend to pay big because some real long shots finish much higher than some of the favorites in a very large field. The trick is to pick the right long shots.

Be warned, in order to pick the longshots you have to leave off some of the favorites. The more favorites you leave off, the more longshots you can cover. With American Pharaoh, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Frosted and Firing Line all being quality horses, you'll have some tough choices to make.

Or maybe not: You could box up those those 5 and the payout wouldn't be that bad. I think any finish of those 5 would pay the $1 trifecta between $100 and $200. That goes against history, however. History tells us that some colt will far exceed expectations and make that trifecta worth a grand and maybe a couple of them do well and make the superfecta worth 10 grand.

Here is a longshot that I'm considering:

The first is a sprinter named It's A Knockout. A son of stamina influence Lemon Drop Kid out of a Cherokee Run mare, he sure looks like the renowned sprinter Cherokee Run. Looks like him. Runs like him. Will most likely fade after a mile like him. I saw this and bet against him in the Florida Derby and I was right (for once). Instead of labeling him a sprinter just yet, however, remember that he is a son of Lemon Drop Kid. Sons of LDK tend to run a long way. They also tend to take a long time to mature. I'm not sure that we've yet seen the real It's A Knockout. Sure, it is far more likely that he is exactly like his maternal grandfather...lots of colts are. But it is possible that he's maturing and will fool everybody come May 2nd. This is one to watch when the early morning workouts begin.

Foals, just like young humans, should not be labeled prematurely. I see the vast differences in some of our top curlers now from when they were Juniors and I am amazed. In style, skill and temperament, they are so vastly improved. That kid that struggles in 3rd grade CAN be the valedictorian given the right reading teacher. The kid that struggles with math CAN grow up to be Einstein (who struggled with school math). That broom banging, cussing Junior that hits everything and at peel weight CAN grow into a master of the junked-up end.

Keep an eye on this one. I will too. I think he's just a sprinter, but I could be wrong...again.

Ben Tucker

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04-17-15 10:03PM
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Here's another longshot that I'm considering: War Story

War Story is the son of Northern Afleet. Northern Afleet was a very good horse, but his best distance was at a mile. As a sire, however, he has had sons and daughters who have done very well if they came from a quality mare. Sons like Afleet Alex who finished 3rd in The Derby, won the Preakness and won the Belmont.

War Story is out of a Pulpit mare. Pulpit was a pretty good racer (won the Bluegrass and got 4th in his Derby), but is an excellent sire. Pulpits sons, daughters and grandchildren have gone on to win about every type of race we have in North America.

So War Story has the bloodlines. He also has a pretty good race record. In his 5 starts, he has 2 wins and 2 seconds and 1 third. Now his wins weren't very impressive. His seconds and that third were pretty far back from the winners...BUT...that's what will make the odds long.

The question one has to ask oneself is, "Is he talented but needs longer races and is this one long enough for him?" I think the answer is yes. I don't think he's good enough to win it, but he'll go off at around 25 to 1 and that can make a trifecta pop.

I liked Commanding Curve for many of the same reasons last year. One reason I really liked him (and ignored his horrid post position) was that he galloped out very nicely after his Arkansas Derby. The gallop out for War Story after this year's Louisiana Derby looked eerily similar.

Ben Tucker
LISTEN people! I'm not a real horse guy. Don't bet money you can't afford to lose. I know a lot more about curling than I do horses and I'm wrong all the time in curling

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04-17-15 11:17PM
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Opposite of War Story, I'm not liking Made From Lucky very much yet.

Same story: Looking At Lucky is a respectable sire...out of a Pulpit mare...OK race results. I'm just not seeing it with this one. Maybe I have them backwards. I guess it's Made From Lucky's win in Gulfstream that bothers me or waves a red flag at me. He won going a fairly long 1 1/8, but it was over a weak field and with a slow time. Now Gulfstream has been keeping the dirt deep this year in order to keep the horses healthy (so it has been timing real slow), but this seemed really, really slow. I don't think I'll be using him BUT if you love his odds, he is well bred and he does have a couple of wins. That 4th in the Arkansas bothers me a little. I'm just not seeing it. Go for it if you are playing bombs. Should go off around 40 to 1. He's trained by Todd Pletcher. If one of Pletcher's favorite jockeys will take the mount, that will speak volumes.

Of Pletcher's many horses not named Carpe Diem (he's reserved for Johnny Velazquez), look for the one that Saez rides (either Materiality, It's A Knockout, Stanford or Made From Lucky). I'm thinking Saez and his agent will have their pick and I think they'll pick It's A Knockout.

Made From Lucky, like our boy Keen Ice, needs a defection to get into the race. He sits 21st so only needs one.

Ben Tucker

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04-19-15 08:03AM
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One Lucky Dane drops out of the Derby with an injury. That puts Madefromlucky into the Derby. Pletcher says no decision has been made yet as to whether he will run.

This also moves Keen Ice into the 21st spot and needs one more drop out to get into the race.

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04-19-15 09:00AM
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(cue up scary music) The Curse Of Apollo! (increase volume on scary music BA BUM BAH...fade out music)

Materiality is the son of Afleet Alex out of a Langfuhr mare. He's a good colt who has won all three of his races (including the prestigious Florida Derby). Here's the problem: He never raced as a 2 year old.

The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2 year old was Apollo. No big deal? That was 1882. This will be 133 years since a colt won the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. To put it in terms that curlers would understand: That's the same year Mark Haluptzok was born, I think.

There have been some very good horses who have gotten second or third and didn't race as 2 year olds (CURLIN and Bodemeister, to name a couple). 133 consecutive races is not a superstition nor a statistical anomaly. Some believe that, "The best colts run in the Derby and the best colts race as 2 year olds, so we shouldn't be surprised." That doesn't explain CURLIN of Bodemeister. Some believe that the large field requires a more experienced colt that is hardened in a way that races harden and not workouts. I don't know.

This year's colt attempting to make history by not racing as a 2 year old is Materiality. (side note: all horses are considered 3 year olds on January 1st...no matter what day they were actually born on) Will he win? I don't think so. He is 3 for 3 and undefeated. He has ran against good fields. Still, I'm not enamored with his results. He staggered home in the Florida Derby after 1 1/8 over that taxing soft dirt at Gulfstream. Frosted had him beat in the Fountain Of Youth until his palate flipped and blocked his windpipe. Maybe Materiality hits the board, but I think the Curse Of Apollo lives on for a 134th year...just like Mark Haluptzok.

Ben Tucker

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Staggering home just behind Materiality in the Florida Derby was Upstart (who was the winner of the Holy Bull a couple of months previous). Upstart is a son of Flatter out of a Touch Gold mare. Flatter could run all day. Touch Gold could also run all day (won the Belmont Stakes, denying Silver Charm the Triple Crown). Upstart does not appear to be able to run all day.

You'll get good odds with this one. He might be the one to crack the top three and make the trifecta pay big. I'm going to pass on this one, I think.

Far Right is a cool colt. He doesn't have the bigtime bloodlines of the rest of this field. He didn't bring much at auction as a yearling ($2,500...about 1% of this fields mode average). Nice redneck trainer. Nice good-old-boys owners. Easy to cheer for. Far Right got a hard-fought second in the Arkansas and won both the Southwest and the Smarty Jones Stakes. He might be the one to crack the top three and get backers paid. His damsire is Vindication who was a promising son of Seattle Slew until injury prevented his Derby appearance.

I'm a fan of Far Right, but I don't see myself including him in my Derby bets. I was very disappointed in his Arkansas Derby when he finished so far behind American Pharaoh and just barely in front of some horses of questionable ability at that distance. Still, he's a good one for long odds trifecta boxers and those who are going to key the winner.

It really bugs me that they misspelled pharaoh when naming American Pharoah. They are from Egypt.

Ben Tucker

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04-19-15 09:53AM
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GETTING PAID:

The frustration of a 20 horse field is that the best horses that day will not all finish in the top 4. Some will get banged around pretty hard at the start. Some will be stuck way out wide on the turns. Some will be boxed in traffic and won't have a path to advance. MANY will have tiring horses dropping back and almost crashing into them.

The beauty of a 20 horse field is that the trifecta and superfecta generally pay very well. They especially pay well if the top two favorites finish "out of the money" (fifth or worse). Will both American Pharaoh and Dortmund both finish out of the money? I think there is a reasonable chance of that happening. Both looked dominant in the final Derby prep races at 1 1/8, but neither have particularly good bloodlines for 1 1/4. I think there is a 25% chance that both finish out of the money. Add to that the likely third betting choice (Carpe Diem) isn't all that fast and you have a situation where the top three might finish out of the money.

Let me be clear: I believe that one or two of the favorites will make the top three. I'm simply saying that I don't love any of the top the three. I could easily see all three missing the board. IF that happens (odds are that it won't), the trifecta could pay off huge even without a big bomb hitting the board.

Lets put it in curling terms:

This year's Women's National was an OK field. Nina and Eileen were the HPP teams that could get to Worlds by making it to the top three. With Patty, Erika, Debbie, Corey and others, it wasn't hard to imagine a scenario where neither of the HPP teams made it to the medal stand. If you had added Cassie or Allison, it would have been even easier to imagine. Not that the Nina or Aileen teams were bad...exactly the opposite...just that the field would have been highly competitive.

I can easily see a top three Derby finish of Mubtaahij/Frosted/Firing Line. Three 12 to 1 shots would make the trifecta pay. Is it likely? Probably not. Would it pay? Oh, heck ya. It would pay four digits for a dollar. Is it worth a try? I'm going to try, even though Dortmund's heart scares me a little and American Pharaoh's talent and Carpe Diem's class scare me. I won't be betting the rent money, but for 1,000 to 1, I'll be trying something.

Just remember that it is going to take some luck. Mubtaahij could be pinned to the rail turning for home. Frosted could have American Pharaoh dropping out right in his path. It's A Knockout could suddenly decide he's the next coming of Secretariat. It's horse racing. No amount of study will give you the right answer. Only the final results hold the answers. Until then, we are guessing. Curlers are trained for this. (Dropkin's Junior Finals, Corbett's Spinner, etc...)

Ben Tucker

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