Registered: Oct 2002
Location: Omaha, Nebraska, USA
Posts: 1713

quote:

---

Originally posted by RockDoc
I don't know how the top U.S. teams are preparing for competition, or how the USCA is helping them in terms of high-performance training (???) but even club teams and many competitive recreational curlers have a full-season fitness plan that involves strength training and cardio. From personal experience, I can say it makes a HUGE difference in performance even in the local club and regional bonspiel grind. At the top levels it is essential.

I think most of the rest of the world has not only caught up to the U.S. in curling, but has bought into physical training and professional coaching (mental training.) I personally don't think it is just raw talent--the U.S. has as large a pool of experienced curlers as many small countries that are outperforming us at worlds. I don't think we can take our national curling prowess for granted anymore.

Cheers.

---

__________________
Visit The AKCA Website!!!
http://www.curlaksarben.com

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Jan 2005
Location:
Posts: 282

quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
Oh, please.
Newbie league? Come on. A little harsh, don't you think?
Percentages? The same percentages that had Jacobs in the middle of pack at the Canadian Trials?
Shoostie and Da Boyz have one terrible end...yet still come home in the 10th one-down-with-hammer. Now I have to read about fitness training and a sports' shrink? (by the way, they have both already)...
Let's do it this way: Face, you and Da Boyz run the table to finish 6 and 1 so I don't have to read all this gloom.
Ben Tucker
USA!

---

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812

quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
Oh, please.

Percentages? The same percentages that had Jacobs in the middle of pack at the Canadian Trials?

Ben Tucker
USA!

---

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

What Trials did I watch? The Canadian Trials in Winnipeg...some of it in person.

Jacobs was (along with Kevin Martin) one of the best skips there. Yet according to the statistics after the round robin, he was rated middle of the pack.

Stats are only as useful as the person interpreting the numbers. Rocks, ice quality and the style of the game avoid a reasonable person extrapolating statistics from one event to another.

Yet I am but a lone voice yelling into a fierce wind. We are American sport fans. The latest loss is always the end of the world and the latest victory is a sign invincibility. Fire the coach and trade the star players...time to rebuild except we lack the patience for any rebuilding. Win today and every day.

Before I shut up, hear one thing: Of the eight teams in Fussen on the Men's side, only one will be a threat to make the playoffs in Sochi. That team is the USA. (same can be said China on the Women's side)

Ben Tucker

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812

quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
What Trials did I watch? The Canadian Trials in Winnipeg...some of it in person.

Jacobs was (along with Kevin Martin) one of the best skips there. Yet according to the statistics after the round robin, he was rated middle of the pack.

Stats are only as useful as the person interpreting the numbers. Rocks, ice quality and the style of the game avoid a reasonable person extrapolating statistics from one event to another.

Yet I am but a lone voice yelling into a fierce wind. We are American sport fans. The latest loss is always the end of the world and the latest victory is a sign invincibility. Fire the coach and trade the star players...time to rebuild except we lack the patience for any rebuilding. Win today and every day.

Before I shut up, hear one thing: Of the eight teams in Fussen on the Men's side, only one will be a threat to make the playoffs in Sochi. That team is the USA. (same can be said China on the Women's side)

Ben Tucker

---

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002

I don't know what your watching the percentages at the trials for

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Shot by shot percentages are an art more than a science...they are affected very easily by personal bias...what one scorer sees as a 4 can be another's 3...and that's the difference between 100% and 75%...

And i'm not saying that they're gaming the system or anything, but Canadian scorers might just be subconsciously goosing the scores, because "Our Olympic Team shot 90% in Trials" makes them seem very imposing...

On the other hand, the scorers in Germany...are probably German...I'd bet the Canadian Olympic Team would be struggling to shoot 80% here.

Now, I would be concerned becasue the US Team was outcurled in the first game...but...that doesn't mean they are dead, it just means that they had a bad game...I see they won their 2nd game, and so far, just about everyone is 1-1...so...it's anyone's competition still.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

I just went and watched the last three ends on curlit. First, I would not pay any attention to the stats if they are the same as the ones shown there. One of those ends, a perfect long guard is thrown and the "score" is 50%.

Second, seems they struggled a bit again but a win is a win. Korea and Czech Republic both at 2-0. Next up is France so another important game to start climbing the ladder to the playoffs.

Game at 10am EST. See you at WCF TV for chat and curlit for the shot tracker.

JH
USA USA USA (tm Willy)

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Apr 2005
Location:
Posts: 399

Good to see that Shuster ground out an important win. These guys are if nothing else resiliant. They were again in control/contact early before having a lapse and dropping 3 in a pretty innocuous-looking end. The middle ends were not pretty, but in the critical last end Shuster's team was perfect with execution and NZL imploded, leading to a USA steal. I think Shuster still needs to step it up for upcoming games. However you score shooting statistics, they look to be struggling a bit. They are still dead last as a team.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Game 3 in progress against France...in the 4th, it's 3-2, US having given up a steal of 1 in the first and stealing a pair of it's own in the 3rd (after taking 1 in the 2nd).

Meanwhile, Korea putting a hurting on Finland and New Zealand spanking Japan...the Czechs and Germans are in a tight one.

Oops, US steals another to go up 4-2.

God I wish there was some sort of way to see things visually from far away places...like some sort of telecommuncated vision tool...they could call it...television....

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 61

issacson and shuster still can't sniff 70%....this can't continue and will catch up to them in this tourney....if not the back 9 of this game. at least the front end has picked up the pace and gotten themselves over 80 for the first time.

if you're looking at the stone by stones.....jeff's to's are really really bad. either shuster can't fig out the ice or it's on jeff. i'm rooting as much as the rest (and i get it tuck, %'s don't tell the whole story)....but, while you can curl 90% and lose, it's really hard to maintain a pace of curling 68% and win. wouldn't you agree?

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Shuster is at 70% after 5, Isaacson 68%, which is within margin of error of 70% after 10 shots (the difference between a 3 and a 4 on a single shot at this point is 2.5% on your total score).

And when the opposition backend is averaging 50%...70% is a winning score.

Shuster steals 2 in the 5th to go up 6-2.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Feb 2011
Location:
Posts: 61

their overall tournament average is listed as well....68% and 66%. i'm not sure what you're saying....but, these guys are going to HAVE to get up to the high 70's/low 80's in this thing over the next 5 games (including this one) to be in a good place for playoffs. agreed?

France is chasing in this game now and i imagine their #'s could go down here and the US will go up if they are looking at mostly guards and to's to maintain lead.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Hmm...not sure I agree with the call in the last of the 7th....

Up 3, with hammer, facing a not quite frozen opposing shot rock apoparently mostly behind high guard, it appears Shuster went for a promote (???but so says the shot tracker) and it went poorly...

France steals 1 to get right back into this thing.

Seems to me the smart play would have been just take your draw for one and move on.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

More likely he was trying to tap back the France rock with his own to score two. But a draw for one would have put them up 4.

__________________
JH
Go Phils, got my WS bet on you

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

So, a well played hit end against a freezechain and a couple of key misses by France gives Shuster the 10-4 win in 9.

In other games, New Zealand beats Japan, Korea crushes Finland, and the Germans are giving the Czech Republic fits...up 7-5 in the 9th.

Last edited by AlanMacNeill on 12-11-13 at 12:38PM

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

A solid two win day. Next up is Germany and Japan. Another two win day would be great. One bad end against France but at least it was the first, giving up a steal of two. Hopefully they are getting a handle on the ice.

Alan, Korea is the undefeated team not Japan. Czech Republic losing helps the US but they hold the tie-break of head to head. The 1-2 game is still in reach and in the US control. Win the rest, simple as that.

JH
Disappointed the Kiwis were not shown on WCF TV this morning

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Yep, I misread the JPN-KOR result from draw 1.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Apr 2005
Location:
Posts: 399

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Hmm...not sure I agree with the call in the last of the 7th....

Up 3, with hammer, facing a not quite frozen opposing shot rock apoparently mostly behind high guard, it appears Shuster went for a promote (???but so says the shot tracker) and it went poorly...

France steals 1 to get right back into this thing.

Seems to me the smart play would have been just take your draw for one and move on.

---

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

And the Germans hold on, blanking the 10th to win 7-6.

So, afetr 3 draws, it's Korea with the early surprise, 3-0...the Czechs, New Zealand, and USA in 2nd at 2-1, France, Germany, and Japan at 1-2, and Finland at 0-3.

Early analysis says that it looks good for the US.

Korea benefitted from starting against 3 of the minnows in the field (of course, they were the minnowiest of the minnows....), I wouldn't expect them to continue this torrid pace.

The US started out with the 3 highest ranked teams in the competition (Well, aside from themselves), and a 2-1 puts them in strong shape as they approach what *should* be the much easier back end of the draw.

IF all remaining games go by World rankings, it's USA in the #1 spot, New Zealand at #2, and the Czechs in #3.

If we assume that all of the teams are what they have shown in the first three games (in other words, the teams with the better record to this point win all remaining games), then Korea takes the #1 seed, US is either 2 or 3, depending on the winner of the CZE-NZL game in the 7th draw.

As said earlier...take care of business by winning out, and the 1-2 game is clinched...we could end up the #2 seed if the Czechs also win out, but that's as bad as it could be.

In short...take care of business and book flights to Sochi.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Now they have all become must wins. Czech Republic, Germany, France, New Zealand all at 2-2 with Shuster.

Looking at the shot tracker for the 10th, one flash on a peel then Germany makes a lot of perfect shots. Give up 3 to lose.

Germany has the "easiest" schedule and could get 2nd.

JH

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002

I thought Germany might be dangerous. They went through undefeated in qualifying Germany for worlds next year and yes the competition wasn't the greatest but that's got to give you confidence. Throw in playing on home ice and maybe we shouldn't have overlooked them.

they do have the lightest schedule of anyone left and they are obviously curling well, they just took out the 2 favorites in this.

Japan and finland at 1-3 doesn't really surprise me. not sure why japan was rated so highly coming in.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Korea?

KOREA????

For all intents and purposes, Korea books a slot in the playoffs by beating New Zealand 10-6 to move to 4-0, and assumes a 2 game lead over the field...one more win clinches at least a tiebreaker slot. Their remaining games are the Czechs, USA, and France, so not an easy road to hoe...but when you only need to go 1-2, they have to feel like they have a shot.

Almost everyone else is 2-2...the Czechs, France, Germany, New Zealand, and the US are all in a 5 way tie for 2nd-6th at 2-2. 3 of those 5 teams will end up dissapointed, it's just a matter of whom.

Finland and Japan three back at 1-3. Probably not their years.

Looking at who among that 2-2 set still have control of their own destiny

It's not the US...they have zero games remaining inside the 2-2 "mini-league"...with Japan, Korea, and Finland remaining, they cannot hang losses on their main competition...however, with 2 games that appear on their face winnable, and a match against Korea...4-3 is likely, and 5-2 possible. They basically have used their mulligans, winning out only guarantees them a Tiebreaker berth for the 3 slot, they need help to get more. The 1 slot is a possibility, they need to win out, get an additional loss by Korea, and losses by the Czechs and Germany.

New Zealand is in clear control of their own destiny, with all three remaining games inside the 2-2 pool (German, France, and Czech)...win out and they are assuredly into at least the 3 slot, and the 2 slot if the US loses one.

Germany only has one game remaining in the mini-pool (NZ), and 2 remaining against the minnows (FIN, JPN), They are in a slightly stronger spot than the US, win out and the 3 slot is secured, with 2 a possibility.

France has a New Zealand game in the mini-pool, Finland, and Korea. Winning out gets them into tiebreakers, but does not necessarily guarantee a playoff berth...however, winning out also gives them a shot at the 1 slot, if Korea were to lose one other game, and the US, Germans, and Czechs to each lose one. Lots of variables in play for the Tri-colors.

The Czechs have Korea, Japan, and New Zealand, copy and paste the French analysis, needing losses by Korea, France and Germany to take that #1 slot.

I'm putting an overly extensive analysis of every combination of outcomes up on Google Docs right now...will link when done.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

Ridiculously large "What If" spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...dit?usp=sharing

I've worked through the US Odds...
4096 scenarios...if we assume all are equally likely...

68 get into the 1-2 game
220 go into a tiebreak scenario for the 1,2, or 3 slot
190 go into a tiebreak for 1,2,3, or out (playoffs)
138 go into a tiebreak for 2 or 3 slot
871 go into a tiebreak for 2,3, or out (playoffs)
701 go into a tiebreak for 3rd
1908 (46.6%) are eliminated

Oddly, there are no remaining scenarios where the US team goes into just 3rd place without a tiebreaker..

The other teams I leave as an exercise for the reader

Last edited by AlanMacNeill on 12-12-13 at 09:37AM

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 1064

quote:

---

Originally posted by jhcurl
[B]Now they have all become must wins.

---

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged