Registered: Sep 2015
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Posts: 1

First off, the point of this Thread is to get some opinions on different tactics to play out the last end. For the purpouse of this debate lets assume that this is an 8 end game, Ice conditions are average (24 hog to stop/ middle 8 to button). Yes, I am aware that answers varry depending on opposition and team styles of play.

The two sides of the picket fence are do you (and your team) preffer to be up 1 without in the last end or down 1 with hammer? There is no point saying tied with or any other option because there is no debate in those scenarios, I am currently working with a new team and either halfs of the team is of different mindsets. Please convince me wrong.

My (personal) opinion:

My most recent team and I (will remain unknown because you probably don't know us anyways) will always play a game (from about the 6th end on) to be in a position where we can be up 1 without.
My reasons for this opinion is that when you are up one without the hammer:

Pros of being up 1 without:
1. It easier to defend without hammer (seeing as how you get to throw first and therefore get the first chance to manipulate the end>>yes there are advantages to not having hammer)
2. There are two acceptable options for the outcome of the end, you can either steal or force your opposition to one.
3. If you successfully carry the game on to an extra end, you will have hammer in the extra and therefore best chance of winning.
4. Look at the board behind you. guess whose winning, and who doesn't love breathing a little easier with a 1 point gap?

Cons of having hammer down 1:

You must play the end to score 2

if we theorize in a perfect end <8 shots made> (which I hope we all strive to achieve) then you have no choice but to score 2 in the 8th end because....
If you are forced to one then you have already lost (which is not the real case) although you are putting yourself at a clear disadvantage.

Now to identify anyone's mindset who likes to be down 1 with in 8, the theory is you potentially have 2 ends to win the game, 1 end where you are "in control". (yes, if you didn't know, any skip who calls a game is somewhat of a control freak. no offence to anyone I am targeting my skip who I know is reading this) and 1 "backup" end where you still have a chance to play.

My team believes this is wrong because 1. scoring 2 in this day of the game is freakin hard. (Pardon my french) and we believe (according to our ability) that we have a better chance of forcing our opposition to 1. then of scoring 2. ourselves. and we are an uber aggressive team.

Now before hearing anyones responses keep in mind that I am very unbiased and have played on teams that approach the 8th end in both opinions. This is written from my current teams perspective, and my opinion is driven off of our current abilities. (as well as some statistics that I have come across)

Either way I look forward to sharing your replys with my mentored team, and hopefully get to read some good debates.

Cheers.

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Registered: Feb 2007
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Posts: 631

The numbers for high level play back up the idea that it's better to be up 1 without. I think it's like 60%-65% to win. Anecdotally, at a relatively low skill level, I prefer it as well.

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Not Pete Steski

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Registered: Oct 2013
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Posts: 559

quote:

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Originally posted by sonofadraw
My team believes this is wrong because 1. scoring 2 in this day of the game is freakin hard. (Pardon my french) and we believe (according to our ability) that we have a better chance of forcing our opposition to 1. then of scoring 2. ourselves. and we are an uber aggressive team.

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002

Teams up 1 without hammer win about 58% compared to down 1 with hammer winning 42% over all games we record. Thousands of games a year.

If you feel like you have a better chance of winning down 1 with hammer, you're wrong and/or playing the situations wrong.

BUT, confirmation bias is a big part of the "feeling". Teams who are down 1 with hammer still win 42% of the time, meaning you could still realistically string together 2-3 wins in a row in that situation and feel like you are better doing it that way.

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Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 839

Attempting to position yourself to be either 1 up without or down with for the final end is the wrong approach and mindset. These positions should be the result of the outcome and not what you are striving to accomplish. The best position is to:
1. shake hands before the last end
2. Be up 1 or more with hammer or up two or more without hammer.

Now, if you are in a close contest in which you feel it likely to be a one point game near the end, you could adjust your end decisions to be Up one without hammer in the NEXT TO LAST END. Being 1 up without in 7 (or 9 in a ten end game) allows you to be aggressive and attempt to force or steal (75-90% Win Expectancy or WE) with the risk of a deuce still leaving you a 40% chance to win the game.

Note that these percentages are taken from Slams, Worlds, Olympics, etc. The highest levels of the game. You will have to determine how your "level" of skill may be adjusted accordingly. Interesting that when we've looked at samples of teams (ie. Slams only, Provincials or even top 5 teams in the world) the 60/40 rule still holds up.

If you enjoy this type of analysis, you may be interested in (sorry, a plug is coming) with my blog:

http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/

and my e-book

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00IDHV2KY/ref=cm_sw_su_dp

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Registered: Jan 2012
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Posts: 136

The decision needs to include how ties are broken. In league play, a tie after 8 is a tie. I've been to bonspiels where the tie is broken by skips rocks with sweeping. Obviously in competitive situations you'll get to play a full end so then the ability of your opponents to make the tick factors in the decision as well.

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