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02-07-18 12:32AM
Manitoba Legend is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Manitoba Legend Click here to Send Manitoba Legend a Private Message Find more posts by Manitoba Legend Add Manitoba Legend to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Manitoba Legend
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Team Homan Olympic Chances

Don't think The Mean Girls will squash & destroy all comers.

Suspect they'll lose 1 or 2 games during the round-robin and make their way into the medal round.

Inside curling observers note Homan was having a mostly mediocre season before she went on a rampage and caught her opponent at the wire for the Olympic berth. She peaked at the right time - (a Jones tradition) but can she sustain it? That's the big question, isn't it?

I have to believe she will. Her team are shot-pelters by nature and that means they just make shots until opponent gives out or misses a key shot (or two).

The only team I can see that matches Homan & Co. athletically are the Swedes. Obviously Princess Eve is a force of nature as she attempts to carry 3 average world class curlers to Olympic glory. She almost strung up Jones in the last Olympics so no reason she won't go after Homan.

Homan - Muirhead - Sweden are the odds on medallists. But there could be severe interventions from one or more of the Asian teams, perhaps even Silvana Tirinzoni goes into the Swiss Trance and does what Paetz & Binia Beeley have done at past worlds. (ie. WIN GOLD)

Homan has been trying to establish a much more nuanced game - a bit more like Jones but without the hi-wire act. Its tough going from a mostly machine-like hitting group to nuanced play - more rocks than she's used to and more opportunities for monsters like Muirhead to hurt her.

I think Homan plays her first 3 or 4 games in her old shot-pelting style - gradually morphing into nuanced lotsa rocks in play games.

It would stun me if she wasn't around for the awards ceremonies.

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02-07-18 08:51AM
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did this really need a thread all it's own

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02-07-18 11:07AM
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I hope they were just playing possum at the Canadian Open. Which I think they have a tendency to do. However, all the teams get very motivated to beat Canada. I hope I'm wrong but silver or bronze for Homan.

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02-07-18 04:17PM
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Silver or bronze only? Unfortunately, it could happen. At the same time it could be even worse! In a single curling event like this, the best team
is not guaranteed to even finish 3rd or 4th.

Back in '14 Great Britain and M'H were the strong favorites along with Canada. M'H had , however , a very troublesome week. In the RR she not only lost to Canada, and Sweden, and Switzerland but was also taken to the woodshed by ( gasp ) Denmark. Certainly at no time did she become a cause for concern for Canada.

Can only hope Canada brings along their 'A' game. Unlike in '10 and '14, the competition this year is gonna be brutal.

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02-07-18 05:44PM
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Jones whipped 'n bombed the '14 Olympic field cuz she was virtually unbeatable at skip. She carried Kaitlyn when Kaitlyn appeared scared & confused - even carried Dawn & Jill for a game or two . . . . two players who are usually remarkably great!

For Jennifer Jones, her Olympic curling gold was just so well earned - nobody could take it away from her. Muirhead thought she had JJ dead to rights with her brilliant shot-making in the semi-final but Jones managed to draw the button cold. The Swedes went down without a peep in the Gold medal game!

Homan's team is more athletic and better trained than JJ's - - - - - but JJ was that remarkable glue who saved end after end by her superb shot-making. Give Homan credit - she's worked hard to de-program her team's reputation as just heavy hitters who abhor junk in the house. Homan herself has been working on a hybrid nuanced game for more than a couple years. Its been tough - she barely slithered past 54 yr old Englot last year and did not finish top of heap at Olympic Trials either.

I suspect they'll make it to the medal round out of the #2 or #3 position - cuz when it comes down to it 85% shot-pelting beats open whiffs about 99.2% of the time

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02-09-18 12:53AM
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Homan is a lock for the semifinals. I can't imagine her losing two in a row at that point to lose a medal entirely. I could see her losing either the semi or the final, though, because all it takes is one bad end.

Oddsmakers set her team at 50% likely to win the gold, and I think that's still a little low. I'd probably stick with 60%-65% likely to win gold.

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02-12-18 03:01PM
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BEST - CASE SCENARIO FOR CANADA'S 3 CURLING TEAMS.

2 Gold 1 Silver


WORST - CASE SCENARIO

1 Gold 1 Silver 1 Bronze

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02-12-18 04:00PM
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Koe is the ultimate shot-pelter, even better than Homan - but he possesses a tremendous nuanced game with Mark & Laing weighing in with incredible shots and tremendous strategy.

Homan is a much younger group, lacking veteran leadership - our only Olympic curling participants with zero Olympic experience.

Results to me:

Lawes/Morris - Gold or Silver
Homan - Bronze to Gold, will medal for sure; 40% Gold, 40% Silver, 20% Bronze.

Koe - Silver or Gold, can't see him dropping into 3rd or beyond. Edin is obviously the one team capable of toppling the Big Salamander in the golden game!

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02-14-18 10:09PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Jones whipped 'n bombed the '14 Olympic field cuz she was virtually unbeatable at skip. She carried Kaitlyn when Kaitlyn appeared scared & confused - even carried Dawn & Jill for a game or two . . . . two players who are usually remarkably great!

For Jennifer Jones, her Olympic curling gold was just so well earned - nobody could take it away from her. Muirhead thought she had JJ dead to rights with her brilliant shot-making in the semi-final but Jones managed to draw the button cold. The Swedes went down without a peep in the Gold medal game!

Homan's team is more athletic and better trained than JJ's - - - - - but JJ was that remarkable glue who saved end after end by her superb shot-making. Give Homan credit - she's worked hard to de-program her team's reputation as just heavy hitters who abhor junk in the house. Homan herself has been working on a hybrid nuanced game for more than a couple years. Its been tough - she barely slithered past 54 yr old Englot last year and did not finish top of heap at Olympic Trials either.

I suspect they'll make it to the medal round out of the #2 or #3 position - cuz when it comes down to it 85% shot-pelting beats open whiffs about 99.2% of the time



Jones "Whipped 'N Bombed" (Sounds like Trump) the '14 Olympic field not just because she curled well but mainly because her team was clearly superior to the other teams and because the overall competition was relatively weak. Another contributing factor to Canada's success was because Jones, Herself, was kind enough to take a "Scared & Confused" Lawes by the hand before each game and explain to her what one might call the "Nuances" of the game together with the "Basics of Curling". Lawes must have been soooo thankful. And how about Dawn and Jilly? I'm sure they will be delighted to read that Jones was forced to carry both of them on her back for several game as well.

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02-15-18 07:20AM
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In 2014 I saw a very good front end for Canada...2018, Lisa is ok but Courtney's missed a few...bronze if she's lucky bearing in mind that Jacobs lost 2 in 2014 & won gold

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02-16-18 09:03AM
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How about 5 loses and out of the medal round.

The best team in Canada is still Jones and they are not playing.

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02-16-18 10:35AM
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quote:
Originally posted by watcher2


The best team in Canada is still Jones and they are not playing. [/B]



You'll be able to catch her games at the worlds. Probably the same teams from the olympics will be there. How about supporting the team that is there. Just a suggestion.

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02-16-18 10:44AM
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0-3 that is okay! Still my team and will still cheer them on. I believe in them and as a team. They are a great team and I will have their backs even if they don’t get a win! They have proven themselves time and time again. Things happens. 🇨🇦🥌 #staypositive

Sean G posted this on facebook replying to Curling Canada. Isn't he special. I think so.

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02-16-18 10:47AM
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quote:
Originally posted by albetts



You'll be able to catch her games at the worlds. Probably the same teams from the olympics will be there. How about supporting the team that is there. Just a suggestion.



JJ had the best record in CANADA this season - Homan and all the also-rans weren't even close. Rachel played a minimalist schedule with her focus being just on the Olympics while Jones played the entire hulalal.

But when it counted, in the heat of the night an obviously out-of-sorts Jones faded down the stretch at the Roar- after an explosive start. Wasn't really a factor although her hot start enabled a playoff spot.

Lots of teams re-forming in Ontario now - have a bit more hope. In past with the odd exception like Tiny Tracy Fleury and Jen Hanna Ontario has been Homan's personal domain. Now, there's a window of hope for the also-rans.

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02-17-18 05:37PM
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It's still sort of early but I'm thinking the final 4 will be Sweden ( 7-2 ), Korea ( 7-2 ), Japan ( 6-3 ) and Canada ( 6-3 ).

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02-17-18 07:30PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Deliverer
It's still sort of early but I'm thinking the final 4 will be Sweden ( 7-2 ), Korea ( 7-2 ), Japan ( 6-3 ) and Canada ( 6-3 ).


If Rachel & her sisters play at the same level they eviscerated USA they'll win out. But that kinda sustained excellence seldom happens - although if anyone can do it the MGs are the ones.
I like your proposed finish - although I can now visualize another route where Homan loses another match - and ends up in a 5-4 tie-breaker with either Japan or Muirhead.

Right now I'd place Homan's chances at playoffs at around 48% (they have to be near perfect) and their chance for gold at 42% (Sweden is really their one significant impediment and we all know what happens when Ann Hasselborg is exposed to nerve-wrenching pressures)

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02-17-18 08:00PM
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I think, at the very worst, Canada will finish 4th in the RR with a record of 5-4 but will win a tiebreaker against China to fill the final playoff slot.
I don't see G.B. in a the mix this year with a 4-5 record..

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02-17-18 08:53PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Deliverer
I think, at the very worst, Canada will finish 4th in the RR with a record of 5-4 but will win a tiebreaker against China to fill the final playoff slot.
I don't see G.B. in a the mix this year with a 4-5 record..



Tend to agree about Princess Eve - she'll finish 5-4 or 4-5; if they don't make playoffs look for Lauren Gray to move up to 3rd next season!

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02-17-18 08:57PM
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P.S. If Rachel and her Sister Sledgehammer scamper by Vanna Tirinzoni tonite (they should, I'd put Homan as 80% chance to win tpnite - moving her odds of making playoffs from 48% to 61%.

If she somehow blows the game vs Suisse - I'd lower her playoff chances from 48% to 23%

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02-17-18 09:20PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
P.S. If Rachel and her Sister Sledgehammer scamper by Vanna Tirinzoni tonite (they should, I'd put Homan as 80% chance to win tpnite - moving her odds of making playoffs from 48% to 61%.

If she somehow blows the game vs Suisse - I'd lower her playoff chances from 48% to 23%



Can you please show the math on your percentages? Is Gerry sending it?

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02-17-18 09:59PM
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Can you please show the math on your percentages? Is Gerry sending it?



Harold Finch lent me his "machine" which has all the curling algorithms built in!

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02-17-18 11:30PM
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Use that same machine then for calculating shot percentages too because many are over exaggerated but 20-30 points.

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02-17-18 11:45PM
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Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
Use that same machine then for calculating shot percentages too because many are over exaggerated but 20-30 points.


Maxwell Smart is in charge of percentages. "Missed by that Much" still gets 1 or 2 out of 4, sometimes even 3 if the scorer likes you!

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02-18-18 06:04PM
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Can you please show the math on your percentages? Is Gerry sending it?



Surely you know by now that any numbers ML spouts are a figment of his imagination,

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02-18-18 07:46PM
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If Homan can slip by Suki of Japan tonite I'll boost her chances of making the playoffs at 63%; winning a medal at 61% and winning gold at 45%.

A loss changes her odds:

Making playoffs - 42%
Winning a medal - 29%
Winning gold - 24%

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