Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Mrs JHcurl has picked her horses that she likes. She will play five 3 horse exacta boxes. In post order - Vicar's in Trouble, Danza, CC (on every ticket), Wildcat Red, Dance with Fate, Chitu, Ride on Curlin, Wicked Strong.

So, betting on CC finishing 1 or 2, I need that to happen as well.

I went back and found the Derby thread from last year. Realize I need the JH/Willy/Tuck exacta box. Samraat, Chitu, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin (just because). I think Wicked Strong has the best chance to win.

I don't mind if CC breaks two minutes but no way I want him to be better than Big Red, so 1:59.6 would be fine.

JH
off to OTB tomorrow morning, Yankee game tonight

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Some other "facts" to consider if you are betting. The prior 3 years and 4 of the last 6, the winner has come from post 15 thru 20. Two are throw outs - Candy Boy and Commanding Curve. $2 WPS on the remaining 4 is a $24 bet. Any of them win and you will make money.

JH

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

About to watch the fillies, and Rosie crush these poor girls. Love the 13-5 and 13-6 Oaks Derby Doubles. I don't like favorites or 13 hole at Churchill, but this girl can fly. Would be 2nd choice if she ran on Sat. against the boys. 6-5 is a good number. Maybe I just cursed myself??

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

My time prediction was a typo. I edited. My bad. I was thinking 1/5 under 2 minutes and the combination of my math skills and typing skills doomed me. Apologies.

Willy cashes on the even-money-favorite. Welllll...I guess cashing is cool. My filly ran a good second. Willy's filly will probably run the Preakness where the odds on Social Inclusion will be too good for him to pass up...unless Samraat wins the Derby...then we'll never hear the end of it.

DO NOT toss Commanding Curve for a WPS. Some longshot will hit the board to make for high paying exotics and I like him at 50 to 1. It won't be Uncle Sigh or Harry's Holiday or We Miss Artie, so it has to be Vicar's In Trouble or Vinceremos or Commanding Curve. I like Curve the best of the long-longshots (30 to 1 or longer). Of course, I don't like him enough to spend my own money on a WPS bet.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

If I get there in time, I'm going to try the Pick 4...mostly because I've never tried one before. You have to pick the winners in the four races. This one ends with The Derby.

I'm taking 3 Quotient 8 Storming Inti 10 Picozza in Race 8 Turf Stakes

In Race 8 (Churchill Downs Stake) I'm taking 4 Sahara Sky 9 Central Banker 10 Dunlauney and 11 Shaking It Up

Race 10 in a mile over turf. Perhaps the greatest horse of our day, Wise Dan, is entered and he almost never loses on turf at a mile. In his last 14 races on turf at this distance, he won 12 of them and was second twice. I (along with everybody else) am taking him...and the one horse that might beat him if he has an off day: Admiral Kitten.

In the Derby I'm going with Danza, Chitu, Chrome and Ride On Curlin.

This will cost me $48 for the 50 cent minimum. I might play it at a buck. It will build the excitement for me as long as that ticket stays alive...which might only be the first race.

I don't know what I'm thinking here. I never pick the winner of one race correctly and now I have to pick four in a row. But it is about having fun and this sounds like a blast if the ticket stays alive through the first two races.


Ben Tucker

PS If Samraat wins The Derby, Willy is never going to let us hear the end of it.

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Prior to betting, here are the live odds.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing...derby-live-odds

Chitu at 26-1.

I need to get my bets made so I stop changing my mind. Not so keen on CC at this point. Added some cover bets in case he doesn't hit the board.

Live long shot at 24-1, Medal Count.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

I'm changing my mind as well. I'm going to add my 5 horses in an exacta box to ease up on the odds of cashing. Maybe it will cover my bets if the rest fail.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Here's what you do, 20 dollar straight trifecta's 5-6-1 and 6-5-1 if you hit its 10,000 minimum. If you lose your out 40 bucks.

If you have more money to burn Key the 5-6 on top of 1-7-12-15-16-20 Tri's and Supers. This game is Awesome!

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Mar 2014
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I love the 12 horse.

I bet 250$ today.

12 horse:
10$ win
20$ place
40$ show

5$ exactor box: 4, 5, 12, 16 (60$)

2$ triactor box: 4, 5, 12, 16, 20 (120$)

If I lose so what. You can't keep all the horses, gotta make a choice.

I'm still ahead because of Giacomo in 2005

Last edited by UCF on 05-03-14 at 02:34PM

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Back from OTB. $180 bet on a bunch of horses. Bet the live longshot, Medal Count for the win.

I think I might be violating some kind of inter-state betting law. Tuck wants me to text him in ND with the winners of race 8 and 9. Seems he went to some kind of sporting event to see his son. So, KY to CT to ND.

JH
think my vig will be a beer

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

And the Tuck pick 4 is dead in the first race. His pick lost by a head.

JH
it is called gambling

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

If you leave Samraat out too bad for you.
Here's the problem, Rosie has the rail and a horse that likes to jump out of the gate, has the 2 hole now. I see Rosie hitting the Gas out of gate, and verring in, then all hell breaks loose. They all collapse toward the middle, CC gets crushed in the melee..... Moral of the story Bet your Birthdate or favorite numbers. Good Luck!

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Once again, had 1st, 3rd, 4th. Stupid Commanding Curve. This could be a triple crown horse. Will go off 2/5 or 3/5 for the Preakness. He is very good, the rest are not so good.

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JH
Go Phils, got my WS bet on you

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Where was the Speed? Hard to win a triple crown, I think a bunch of Speed will show up at Preakness.

Tuck is a genius hits Superfecta for a big number, it was the other CC. Too bad he goes to OTB and pays big vig, and now needs to talk to the Tax-man. Remember you can write off losses up to the amount of your winnings ( start picking up those spent tickets on the ground ) Ever hear of off-shore gambling?

Derby is over its Golf season, Enjoy!

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

JH nailed it: This might be a triple crown winner because he's good and the others are not good.

I'll be betting against him, however, as much as I like him and like the story of his blue collar owners. 2:03.6 is just not a time that is going to scare trainers away. The 109 Beyer was big, but not intimidating.

Speed will come after him in the Preakness. The fast filly, Untapable, will be there. Social Inclusion will be there and I'll be very interested in him if starts at a good price. Graham Motion should have Ring Weekend healthy by then. I do think Chrome will win the Preakness.

Then comes the formidible test of the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes. Danza will probably skip the Preakness and be fresh. He almost got run over by Vinceramos (both out of Pletcher's barn) and Danza still go up for third place. After winning the Arkansas, Danza galloped out an incredible half mile. He's built for Belmont.

Commanding Curve was flying down the stretch. He'll probably skip the Preakness and be fresh for the Belmont. Interesting horse.

Ride On Curlin had a horrible trip as Calvin's plan for the rail was closed off. Twice he had to stop Curly and then, finally, went four wide. I don't know if they'll skip the Preakness because his father won that race.

Then out in the shadows somewhere is Kid Cruz and that will be the next live longshot for me.

Right now, I think a rested Danza will win the Belmont Stakes.

It was a fun day, yesterday. One son, Moogie, was the first to bring Califonia Chrome to my attention. The other son, Ryan, cashed the trifecta as well. My daughter was with me for the race.

I actually made money. After taking out my initial betting cash, I split the rest up for each of the 5 kids and the wife and the church. I kept the exacta money for myself.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Tuck, I hope you saved some of the "large" cash for the next meeting of the minds. I hear you might be hitting NYC again. I think there are certain people that will expect a drink on you.

Good on you. I did not drink the Commanding Curve kool-aid and that was a mistake.

There will be a separate thread for the Preakness. It will come down to, do you believe or not.

JH

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