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01-22-16 06:31PM
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twright218
Knee-Slider

 

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for some reason have been following the play downs, having played against some of these players it seems like the last jr. play downs ill have any connection too. Being out of the loop for a few years is this final going to be a winner take all or is it a best two out of three?

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01-22-16 07:42PM
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southerncurler
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Men's is winner take all. Women's the Christensen team has no losses yet so if they lose the first there would be another winner take all game.

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01-22-16 08:02PM
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misty1
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3rd chance, dropkin probably wins but im hoping clawson pulls it off. they have looked like the best team here all week

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01-22-16 10:53PM
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IMWright
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Philosophical question. If Dropkin beats Clawson, only having beat him once out of three matches this week, is that really the best team? Granted neither team is undefeated, so it's winner take all now. But one could argue for some "2 loss provision" if the Dropkin rink wins their third meeting (only winning 1 out of 3 match ups). So if you were against a "2 loss provision" due to being against the HPP, now it's flipped. This is all hypothetical since the Dropkin Rule doesn't apply, but food for thought.

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01-23-16 12:52AM
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ethan.b.meyers
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: May 2013
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quote:
Originally posted by IMWright
Philosophical question. If Dropkin beats Clawson, only having beat him once out of three matches this week, is that really the best team? Granted neither team is undefeated, so it's winner take all now. But one could argue for some "2 loss provision" if the Dropkin rink wins their third meeting (only winning 1 out of 3 match ups). So if you were against a "2 loss provision" due to being against the HPP, now it's flipped. This is all hypothetical since the Dropkin Rule doesn't apply, but food for thought.


Philosophy is just science sans rigor.

If we want to be reasonably sure that the better team wins, we have to make some assumptions. First, lets define "reasonably sure" as a 95% confidence level, because that's the arbitrary number everyone always chooses when doing statistics.

It also matters how big of an edge the better team has on the other team. If the teams are exactly evenly matched, it obviously doesn't matter how many games you play. If the battle is fairly lopsided and the better team has a 2/3rds edge, they need to play a best-of-23 game series. If it's a closer game and the better team would only win 55% of those games we now have to make them play a 269 game series to make sure we determine the better team.

So no, no matter what format we realistically play, we're never going to have much confidence (statistically speaking) that the better team won Nationals and is going to Worlds. Fortunately, that's also exactly what makes sports interesting.

quote:
Dropkin Rule

The new rule about lineup cards haven't even been written yet. We can call it that when it is though.

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01-23-16 07:57AM
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misty1
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quote:
Originally posted by IMWright
Philosophical question. If Dropkin beats Clawson, only having beat him once out of three matches this week, is that really the best team? Granted neither team is undefeated, so it's winner take all now. But one could argue for some "2 loss provision" if the Dropkin rink wins their third meeting (only winning 1 out of 3 match ups). So if you were against a "2 loss provision" due to being against the HPP, now it's flipped. This is all hypothetical since the Dropkin Rule doesn't apply, but food for thought.


interesting question there but im pretty sure dropkin will only need to win once.if situations were reversed the dropkin rule might have been put into effect

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01-23-16 11:05AM
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Taking a look at the schedules of these very committed Junior athletes - Junior Nationals, US Nationals, Mixed Doubles Nationals, and potentially Worlds for any of the above, not to mention practice time, workouts, spiels throughout the season - just tons of time invested. Does anyone know if there is a requirement by the jHPP to maintain a minimum GPA or something in high school/college?

This seems like a really tough balance. I imagine the coaches have to work with the schools in some way to make this happen? Regardless, it really puts it in perspective how tough it can be on these youngins'

-m

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01-23-16 02:53PM
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misty1
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well HPP get what they wanted

clawson so close yet so far

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01-23-16 03:12PM
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Congrats to Cory and Korey for performing like champs all week. Well done!

These atheletes sacrifised and work hard all year. Most importantly they earned their titles on the ice. It doesn't get better than that!

I also find very few things to like about the HPP. But how can you complain about extra financial support for teams Christensen and Clawson next year?

The US has the best junior champs we could hope for. Really nice talented kids.

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01-23-16 03:22PM
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TNH
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BTW, the Dropkin-Meyers Rule may come up in Northern Ontario Scotties. Krista McCarville zipped through the roundrobin at 6-0, but now must play Tracy Fleury, who she already beat twice, in a sudden death final.

It will be an entertaining game. You gotta step up when it matters most!

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01-23-16 06:56PM
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tuck
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I just got home. Long drive.

I only saw the True Semi and the Finals. That's far less than I normally watch, so my insights might not be very insightful; nor should you put much stock in them. I only saw a few games.

I'll string it out over a few posts as I find time.

Just for an appetizer, Clawson called a much more aggressive game than he called at Clubs. Whether that is because of the competition he was facing or an evolution in his strategic thinking, I don't know...but I suspect it's a positive evolution.

In both of the Men's games that I watched, Alex Fenson was the best curler on the ice.

Ben Tucker

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01-23-16 11:27PM
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Just speculating, but I'd call it a combo of confidence and coaching.

Hunter Clawson's Clubs team was not this team. These are his boys. They practice together, travel together, respect each other, have great parental and coaching support, and it shows.

Regarding strategy - I'll throw Mr Anderson some creds here. You aren't going to beat the Dropkin rink in a defensive game. That would be playing right into their strengths.

Yup, I'm biased, but here goes ... These are some of the nicest kids I've ever been around, and I generally don't like anyone that can't bring a bottle of scotch to the table after league. I blame Mr and Mrs Clawson completely for raising such stand up young men. Yes, I covered Eric's pre-league scrape on Thurday so he could be there to support his sons. You're welcome America.

No Clawsons are aging out. Maybe Clouser is the only one? Or maybe he just looks like he should be.

Not-so-little anymore Eli still has at least 5 years of eligibility. Curling in the East is in good hands.

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01-24-16 12:32AM
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tuck
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Junior Ladies:

Not much drama there. If you took the entire field and listed the four top players, all four would be from the same team. Cory's only real concern would be if one of her own team jumped ship and skipped another team. I spoke to people who had been around the entire week and whose opinion I respect and they agreed. The four top players were all on one team.

Madison Bear has been a good curler, but now she is a very good curler. Taylor Anderson has made the jump to stardom. The team has improved strategically by working together with really good shorthand communication. Cory has vastly improved when it comes to reading ice (although this was late in the week on absolutely perfect ice...not the toughest of tests...but still vastly better than I saw in exact circumstances last year).

This is the best USA Junior Ladies team I've ever seen. Better than the Aileen Sormunen/Courtney George team. Better than the Carlson/Peterson/Peterson/Brorson team. We all have a special place in our hearts for the Cassie/Jamie Johnson teams, but I think this one is even better. I didn't see the Erika Brown teams play.

Annamarie Dubberstein is exactly like her sisters. She is obviously a gifted athlete and this all appears to come easy for her. Annamaria Dubby, unlike her sisters, was skipping. She took to that amazingly well. There were two really bad calls that I saw, but she did fine in the house. Her team played well in front of her.

Now the following comment on Melissa Runing is going to sound like a criticism, but it's not. If it is, it's only a small one (and remember that I only saw her play two games this year and more than that last year).

I didn't see much improvement in Runing this year. True, she's very good and it's hard to show improvement once you've already made it to the upper echelon. Osbakken at third was really good, so I was hoping for more...as, I'm sure, were they. In both the semi and the final, Melissa seemed to lack the confidence she played with last year. She was occasionally narrow on swingy ice (the new mortal sin). Judging from the linescores, I probably just had the misfortune of seeing a couple of games where she wasn't at her best.

I was a big fan of Melissa Runing and I remain a big fan. However, it points to the one dark cloud in the otherwise blue skies we currently have with the Christensen team: With Cory, the Tiny Terrorists and Osbakken aging out, we will be left with several Junior Ladies who are obviously talented, but none who are polished and none who look to ready for the international stage.

Madison Bear is probably the exception. Others like Annamaria Dubbya, Runing, Flannery and others with obvious talent will all need take that last big step to reach the level of Cory and the Tiny Terrorists.

The implications of this scenario are pretty significant. Next post for starting up that shouting match.

Ben Tucker

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01-24-16 01:05AM
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tuck
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So jump ahead 5 months with me.

The HPP staff will have a very difficult task in front of them for both genders; but especially for the Junior Ladies. The vast majority of our new gold medalists are aging out. They've also been in the program for years now. Where do we go from here?

My fear is that they will blow up 3 or 4 teams in each gender to form the next Super Teams. By taking one player from each of the contending teams, they will whittle away at our depth as abandoned teammates drift away from the game.

It is, however, one way to ensure that our HPP team wins (by making sure that all other contenders lose their best player). This all started when we had 3 really good teams (Haag, Christensen and Anderson) all collapsed into one super team.

This time around, I don't think we have 3 teams like we did back then. I like to judge Junior teams by how they fare against Women's teams. All 3 of those teams did just fine against their elders. While Dubberstein, Runing and Brekke might do OK, I don't think they'd do consistently well just yet.

The same may threaten the Boys' side. Will they try to combine the Clawson rink with the Stopera rink?

One option would be to fund more teams, but that's not an easy plan to fund. It is especially not easy to fund as we get nearer to the next Olympics. Then more and more of the limited funding will (as it should) go towards our next Olympic teams and not Juniors.

Another option would be to just bring in entire teams (one from each gender) and not split up multiple teams. I'm not sure that is a viable option, as the HPP teams (correctly) demand a high degree of commitment and few teams have all four players willing to commit to that degree.

A third option might be to totally rework the Junior side of the HPP. Maybe we get away from funding just a few curlers and put that money into spreading around the coaching and bringing teams into competitive camps complete with games.

I don't have the answer for this one. This one is tough. I'd love to fund 5 teams in each gender (complete with coaching), but we'd have to pick up Nike and/or Pepsi as sponsors because it would blow the current budget.

My gut and my head both agree. Mostly I fear wrecking multiple teams to form a superteam is the wrong path. I bravely say this knowing full well that our Juniors are likely to medal at Worlds. Especially should Cory come back with a medal (and I love their chances), this can easily be thrown back in my face. "See, Tuck! It works! This is what you have to do these days with the new climate in international curling." Even if they bring back gold, I'm not buying it. Who's to say that Haag, Christensen or the Tiny Terrorists couldn't have brought back medals without sacrificing our depth?

But I'm worring about next year and we're not even done with this year. I don't want my worries to rain on this parade. We've crowned wonderful champions who are all wonderful young people. We're sending strong representatives to Worlds who are insanely easy to cheer for. Behind them we have bronze and silver medalists with talent.

Today was a good day.

Ben Tucker

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01-24-16 10:02AM
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tuck
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The Boys' Final ended up being quite a battle with an appropriately emotional ending. Dropkin was quite exuberant as his 7 rock made an easy pick and Clawson was quite devastated by coming so close to the gold just to be denied by an evenly matched opponent.

I missed the first two ends. I didn't really oversleep; I was just slow to get rolling. So when I got there, it was 2 to 2 and Potomac had the hammer in the third.

Clawson got the sheet set up beautifully with staggered corner guards on one side and shot rock underneath behind the teeline and second shot on the other side. Howell tried a hit and roll, but rolled out. Clawson could have kept aiming for the deuce by splitting the house again, but he called for Clouser to get under the corner guards. I totally agree with the call, but many are starting to agree with the European thinking that going for more than 2 points just ends up costing you. Clouser's draw is made a little too well and gets too covered and doesn't cover the shot rock that's still behind the teeline. Dropkin goes for the Hero Freeze, but bounces a bit. Clawson makes a very nice shot to remove it. Now Dropkin makes a perfect Hero Freeze. Potomac does have a chance for 2, but ends up taking 1.

The fourth end they both get after it. Potomac calls an aggressive center guard (which they seem to do fairly often) and HPP calls an equally aggressive corner guard. Both teams play to pack the front, but HPP gets in first and often. At skips' rocks, it's now Clawson's turn to make the Hero Shot. His first draw is light and tight and doesn't work at all. Dropkin comes in. Now if Clawson misses, he'll be giving up an easy 3. The only shot he has is an angle raise draw. He makes it beautifully but is very unfortunate. It gets to exactly the button which makes it exposed through a narrow port. It would have been fine against most teams because most teams would try to hit and stay for 3. Dropkin wisely avoids that trap. He lays down peel weight and picks it out for 2.

The 7th end is a bit bizarre. Tied up with Korey having the hammer. Korey has shot rock wide open, but Hunter keeps reestablishing a center guard. This is risky. If they hang that guard long, Korey will come around it and be building a 3. If they slip it into the house, Korey hits it and lays 2. Three halfshots (including a roll out by Dropkin on an open hit) lead to a blank end.

Then came the critical 8th end. Both teams plug the front. Fenner and Howell both get brilliant rolls on difficult hits. Clawson ends up trying to freeze just to limit the damage (no chance to get shot), but bounces off into the open; leaving the easiest of draws for Dropkin to crack a 3 and take control of the game.

Potomac gets things going in the 9th and are looking good for a deuce until Howell spoils the party. Faced with the Sophie's Choice of being Down 2 Without or Down 3 With The Hammer, they elect to take 1 and come home without. Fenson makes a nice Weagel. Fenner's peels go extremely well. The die is cast.

With his 7 rock, Hunter makes an OK freeze. With Dropkin's 7 rock, he just needs to hit half the stone at peel weight. He does it seemingly without any effort. Korey is thrilled. He hugs half the people in the arena. Hunter is devastated.

All from memory and I was talking to people and roaming around. Some of the details may be off, particularly in the early ends when I was focusing on the Ladies' game because it was going to be over early so I wanted to see every shot.

Ben Tucker

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01-24-16 10:12AM
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tuck
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Alex Fenson is really good.

I'm not a big stats guy, except for the lead position. I'm sure that Alex has good stats, but that's just a small part of what he brings.

Alex was vice skipping as well. He does a really nice job running the house. He does a really, really, really nice job of keeping an eye on the ice. He will, on rare occasion, change Korey's ice from the hack end; but that is on rare occasions. Korey doesn't need much help.

The help comes with skip's rocks. If you have a teammate that pays close attention to the ice, you can put the broom down with confidence for your shot. Having teammates that DON'T pay close attention to the ice, but offer their uninformed opinion anyway, is incredibly harmful. Alex pays close attention and Korey seems to trust him.

I find myself looking forward some year when Alex does more skipping.

Ben Tucker

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01-25-16 11:06AM
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biterbar
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Thanks for the analysis Tuck. Congratulations to our National Champions and good luck to them at Worlds. I believe we are well represented and expect big things this year.

Congratulations to the Clawson Rink as well. They still have Nationals left this year and I think this is a group we will hear a lot more about in the future. A talented group of curlers with a coach who obviously has them in tune with each other. I look forward to following them at Nationals and beyond.

__________________
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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01-25-16 01:22PM
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Willmar Venue:

I've been to more than a few Junior Nationals and watched with interest even a few more. I've talked to Juniors and parents and coaches over the years.

We've been on a very good run of curling clubs putting in massive efforts the last few years and those efforts paying off in really good events.

However, Willmar was different.

Because it is an arena club, these kids got to the full arena experience. And what an experience it must have been to play on that ice at that venue.

A balcony ran down one side of the ice; as did standing room at ice level. Glassed in second-story viewing was available at the home end. Some viewing along the far side as well. Not enough seating for a large crowd, but right on top of the action. An OK experience for fans...a great experience for the curlers.

The place was decorated and set like Men's and Women's. Huge lobby filled with curling stuff. The USCA has (correctly) put money and work into getting our Men's and Women's Nationals into arenas (partly) to give our World teams arena experience. It was really cool to see these 20 young teams get to play in an arena and an arena whose club went to the effort of doing it right.

And the ice looked fantastic. Q Way flew in from Denver to head the iceteam. Rudy was up from Devils Lake to help. Our usual guys were in Vegas for the C Cup, but that ice was World caliber.

So congratulations to the Willmar committees and volunteers and congratulations to the ice crew.

Ben Tucker

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01-25-16 01:53PM
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noleary
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Tuck:

I think you should be giving big kudo's to Kevin Mattson, Willmar's own iceman. I curled in Willmar when they hosted Mixed Nationals a couple of years ago, and it was by far the most "Nationals Like" ice and setting I ever experienced in Mixed. Kevin has been a fantastic addition to our National ice making crews.
Norma O'Leary

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01-25-16 02:46PM
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To be totally honest, Norma, I was gapping his name. Very embarrassing since I had just talked to him for a bit on Friday. In my defense, the other ice nerds and scrapper jockeys always refer to him as Zamboni (short for World's Best Zamboni Driver). I had even interviewed Kevin once for TESN, but the old brain doesn't always work.

So thanks for the assistance.

(We all call Quentin Way "Q" like he's in a James Bond movie. How the heck are supposed to remember his real name?)

Mostly I talked to Kevin about the future of the Willmar club. They are losing ice time to hockey and figure skating. They hope to build a drive for a dedicated facility soon. Another successful Olympics could really help that drive. Unfortunately, there does not appear to be an inexpensive existing building to use; so they won't be able to follow the Ohio/Oregon model.

Ben Tucker (not aging as gracefully as Norma O'Leary)

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01-25-16 02:59PM
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Smile

You are forgiven on the name thing. Kevin doesn't look like a Kevin. You should at least have to look like your name!

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01-26-16 01:53PM
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If I get another text, call, email, message or post about "The Clawson team are such great young men who are so polite and always help around the club and are such good curlers", I think I might puke.

We know that dbsdbs and Tuck don't like the HPP. We know that Potomac/Philly curlers love their new favorite team. Get past it already.

Now I hear that their peers voted Team Clawson the Curtis trophy for embodying the Spirit Of The Game. Enough already.

Just because you Easties are used to ALL your top athletes in ALL of your sports being pampered, spoiled and entitled twits, it does not mean that the rest of us are surprised that a curling team is filled with outstanding young men. Heck, you have the Dropkins and the Howells and the Tiny Terrorists...this is not new ground for you. Long gone are days when Eastie curling was dominated by country club jerk lawyers and spoiled Juniors. It hasn't been that way for a while now.

I'm just kidding (well, half kidding). Congratulations to an exciting young team on the Curtis sportsmanship award.

Ben Tucker

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02-01-16 09:25AM
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You can't forget to congratulate that other Eastie team who brought home the bronze medal. Not too shabby. Team Stopera is also a fine group of young men. Each one has a very bright future.

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02-01-16 10:15AM
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quote:
Originally posted by tuck
it does not mean that the rest of us are surprised that a curling team is filled with outstanding young men.

I'm just kidding (well, half kidding). Congratulations to an exciting young team on the Curtis sportsmanship award.

Ben Tucker



Isn't that the beauty of our game -- that so many curlers fit this description? And congrats to the Clawson rink for getting an award that really is important in curling.

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