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11-12-15 05:37PM |
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misty1
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2015 European Championships
So The Europeans start next weekend. My thoughts on things:
Women:
Well things look a little open for some unexpected results here. russia, scotland and switzerland , who would be the 3 favorites coming in have all looked a little wobbly this season, switzerland in particular. I like a comment from joan mcusker a couple weeks ago that, even in game where they start off strong paetz is finding a way to lose. They couldnt have got to much confidence from not qualifying in their last 2 events and so it will be interesting to see how they do here.
There are teams here that could take advantage if the big 3 are struggling and the 2 most posed to do so are sweden and denmark. darkhorse for playoffs might be germany. that team had a respectable showing at worlds.
my predictions:
final 4: scotland, russia, sweden, denmark
rank 5 through 7 and safely through to worlds: switzerland, germany, finland.
rank 8th and playing for a spot: norway
relegated: estonia and hungary
Men:
Think whats interesting here is that the czech republic are not represented by snitil, which is a huge surprise. There are so many interesting stories here. can finland make a deep run and continue that great form from worlds?. what will italy do after their great play last year? and can the netherlands continue their great form from the cash circuit and grab a spot at worlds. also, how will young kyle smith do in his first senior event representing scotland. Its the most interesting europeans in a long time for me. In the end sweden and norway should be favorites and switzerland probably the favorite to win if its not one of those 2.
Final 4: sweden, switzerland, norway, finland
ranked 5 through 7 and safe to worlds: scotland, russia, italy
ranked 8 and fighting for a spot: germany
relegated: netherlands and czech republic
Women B:
there are 4 teams here probably considered favorites: austria, italy, czech republic and poland. Nice to see france has a team , little surprised spain missed this division. czech republic probably has the best team here but italy is also strong. turkey has developed fast so they could make it interesting and poland and england look dangerous.
final 4: poland, czech republic, italy, turkey
playing for a worlds spot: italy. czech republic to join them in getting promoted to A for 2016.
Men B:
austria has a good young team that qualified for world juniors a couple years back and, again this is one country that seems close to a break through at senior level. others that should contend are of course denmark, hungary, latvia, poland and england. Spain, turkey , estonia can score upsets but i dont think it will be enough for top 4.
final 4: denmark, austria, england, hungary.
playing for a worlds spot:..really want to say austria but have to go with denmark.they are very motivated and last year was an anomoly, they are much better then what they showed. austria will join them in A for 2016 though
Last edited by misty1 on 11-12-15 at 05:47PM
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11-17-15 01:45PM |
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Phil_D
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Re: 2015 European Championships
quote: Originally posted by misty1
So The Europeans start next weekend. My thoughts on things:
Women:
Well things look a little open for some unexpected results here. russia, scotland and switzerland , who would be the 3 favorites coming in have all looked a little wobbly this season, switzerland in particular. I like a comment from joan mcusker a couple weeks ago that, even in game where they start off strong paetz is finding a way to lose. They couldnt have got to much confidence from not qualifying in their last 2 events and so it will be interesting to see how they do here.
There are teams here that could take advantage if the big 3 are struggling and the 2 most posed to do so are sweden and denmark. darkhorse for playoffs might be germany. that team had a respectable showing at worlds.
my predictions:
final 4: scotland, russia, sweden, denmark
rank 5 through 7 and safely through to worlds: switzerland, germany, finland.
rank 8th and playing for a spot: norway
relegated: estonia and hungary
Men:
Think whats interesting here is that the czech republic are not represented by snitil, which is a huge surprise. There are so many interesting stories here. can finland make a deep run and continue that great form from worlds?. what will italy do after their great play last year? and can the netherlands continue their great form from the cash circuit and grab a spot at worlds. also, how will young kyle smith do in his first senior event representing scotland. Its the most interesting europeans in a long time for me. In the end sweden and norway should be favorites and switzerland probably the favorite to win if its not one of those 2.
Final 4: sweden, switzerland, norway, finland
ranked 5 through 7 and safe to worlds: scotland, russia, italy
ranked 8 and fighting for a spot: germany
relegated: netherlands and czech republic
Yeah, I pretty much agree.
Interestingly they've done away with the page playoff system and are going with Olympic-style playoffs. Definitely adds some pressure.
For the women, I think the Gold medal game is going to come down to Russia and Scotland, with Sweden and Switzerland playing for Bronze.
I think Russia will take Gold...some shaky play at times this season, but some brilliant play as well. Several big comeback wins against good opponents should serve as a confidence builder. A good run at the GSOC in in Truro followed by going undefeated until the final in Switzerland this past weekend gives them some nice momentum. They did really well here last year (albeit with Galkina at lead) and took Silver. I think they've settled in with the new line-up, and are hungry to take it all.
Scotland I think will take Silver. I expect at least one upset loss in the round-robin, usually happens with them. They've had a pretty good season, qualifying at every event (and making the final in Stockholm) before a disappointing showing in Truro where they only squeaked out one win. They've been off since then, so they're coming in rested. Some shaky play as well, but overall they're doing better than they were at this point last season...Sarah Reid has settled in comfortably at lead. They struggled here last year but still managed to win Bronze. They're looking to do better this year and intend to do so...I would not be surprised to see them go undefeated and take Gold, but I just have a feeling they'll fall a bit short.
I expect Switzerland to take Bronze. They're certainly capable of running the field and taking it all, but they've been pretty shaky at times this season. Maybe it's the target on their backs as "World Champions," maybe they're a bit burned-out from a loaded travel schedule, maybe it's just a bit of a slump but something seems a bit off. They finally had a weekend off, so maybe they just needed to decompress and recharge the batteries. Like Muirhead, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run all over everybody, and there's no doubt they're motivated to do so, but with their inconsistent season so far I think they'll struggle a bit here.
Sweden is definitely the underdog of these four here. Talented and experienced, they haven't had nearly as much time playing the teams that Russia/Scotland/Switzerland have. This season has seen them playing in Canada more than in the past, and overall they've had a pretty good one. Inconsistent at times for sure, but I really feel like they're on the verge of a breakout. I think it's safe to say that right now they are the best women's team in Sweden. They've had several weeks off to rest up and train, and they're coming in with something to prove. They have the motivation and the drive, but I think that they'll fall short and take fourth...if that's the case, a respectable outcome given the field.
For the men, I think once again we'll see Norway and Sweden playing for Gold. I think Switzerland will be in the Bronze game for sure, with a toss-up between Finland/Scotland for that fourth spot.
Sweden will win Gold again I think. On tour in Canada they've had an OK season, qualifying several times but they haven't won anything. Meanwhile they won their first event in Basel, and tend to play better in Europe. They've played more on tour this year than last year, but staying in Ottawa has cut down on their travel woes/jet lag issues. I expect to see the Edin we saw at Europeans and Worlds last year.
I think Norway will fall just short and take Silver once again. They've played less this season than usual, and it has showed at times. They had a rough time in Truro at the slam but bounced back and did pretty well in Oshawa. With their experience and time together, this team doesn't stay rusty for long. Going into Worlds last year some people thought that their relaxed schedule would hurt them, and instead they came out swinging. I expect the same here...Oshawa was a good tune-up, and I think they're ready to do some damage. Once again though, I think Edin is going to be playing just a bit better and stop them short of taking it all.
I expect Switzerland to win Bronze. Don't have too much to say about them other than that, ha ha.
I really think it's a toss-up as to who will be the fourth team to qualify. Finland has more experience, but Scotland has had a great season so far. I can see either team in that Bronze medal game, and honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see either team take Bronze as well.
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11-17-15 06:48PM |
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nelski
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great analysis in both posts. i will follow post game views, if you can continue. thanks.
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11-17-15 06:57PM |
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Kiwi
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Further down the field, but I'll be interested in seeing how the men from The Netherlands go. They've had a surprisingly competitive year on the circuit so far, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them bolt through and qualify for Worlds. It would be good to see a Dutch mens team at Worlds for the first time since 1994!
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11-17-15 08:04PM |
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Phil_D
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quote: Originally posted by nelski
great analysis in both posts. i will follow post game views, if you can continue. thanks.
Thanks, I try.
Me not post on here? They can't get me to stop, ha ha.
I'm sure several of us will be posting on here at least once a day once the RR gets underway.
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11-17-15 08:05PM |
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Phil_D
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quote: Originally posted by Kiwi
Further down the field, but I'll be interested in seeing how the men from The Netherlands go. They've had a surprisingly competitive year on the circuit so far, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them bolt through and qualify for Worlds. It would be good to see a Dutch mens team at Worlds for the first time since 1994!
Agreed.
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11-17-15 08:44PM |
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misty1
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Honestly, once you get past the top 4-5 teams in both fields its completely wide open as to who comes through.
i made predictions in my posts but its very even between germany finland, estonia, norway and hungary for the women . Its also very even between russia, italy, germany, netherlands and the czech republic on the mens side.
Any of those teams could get through and any of them could get relegated.
although germany and finland probably do have a tiny edge on the womens side and russia and italy probably do have a tiny davantage on the mens side. but with teams like these you just never know for sure. netherlands could easily find itself through safe and clear.
think the big factor though is that they will be playing on arena ice, which this young team wont have much experience playing on and they are representing their country. Its a lot easier to play well when the eyes of your country are not on you and you are only playing for yourselves.
netherlands actually has a great schedule through their first 5 games , it will be interesting if they can take advantage of that.
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11-17-15 08:58PM |
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Phil_D
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quote: Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Despite all the turmoil in Scotland I fully expect the Scottish A team to qualify in the Top 4. Scotland has a nasty habit of being ultra-competitive in curling.
In womens I'll be most interested to see how Ladyhawke (Paetz), armed with the heads of Team Jennifer Jones at last years worlds is able to confront and handle either Sidorova (RUSS) or Muirhead (SCO). If the extra training and cash play in Canada does anything for them they'll be a very tough out.
Muirhead will continue to be the team show-casing middling percentages back-dropped against amazing kill-shots and the odd get out of jail shot. That's her way.
Sidorova is far steadier (as a team) than Muirhead and has added those big-bang shots to her arsenal. Muirhead still better at setting up other teams for the fall - probably the best in the world.
It's definitely possible. Then again, the upstart surprise team (Edwards, I think) had a really rough time in the round-robin and almost were relegated. I think Smith's team is better though.
No doubt about it. When they're on they're tough to beat. They've been kinda so-so since Worlds though. Great at times, bad at others. It could very well be that what we've seen so far this season is some weariness from travel...they're not as accustomed to the grind as some of these other teams.
Some games are like that, sure. I wouldn't say it's their way though. Overall they're consistently a solid team all around and at times they're lights-out. Individually they have their misses and their off games where Eve is having to get out of trouble with her skip stones (she has her share of bad games too), and they have their bad games all-around, but so does everybody. Nobody's perfect and you can't win all the time.
I don't know if I'd go so far as to say Sidorova is a steadier or more consistent team than Muirhead, but they are steady and are pretty consistent as well. Like Team Muirhead they handle pressure well and rarely get fazed, and like you said Sidorova isn't afraid of the spectacular shots and is quite capable of making them. I'd say their biggest weakness is their strategy...some of their calls are questionable at times. They get better year after year though, and Anna in particular has gotten better both with shot calling and shot making over the past several years.
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11-17-15 09:06PM |
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Phil_D
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quote: Originally posted by misty1
Honestly, once you get past the top 4-5 teams in both fields its completely wide open as to who comes through.
i made predictions in my posts but its very even between germany finland, estonia, norway and hungary for the women . Its also very even between russia, italy, germany, netherlands and the czech republic on the mens side.
Any of those teams could get through and any of them could get relegated.
although germany and finland probably do have a tiny edge on the womens side and russia and italy probably do have a tiny davantage on the mens side. but with teams like these you just never know for sure. netherlands could easily find itself through safe and clear.
think the big factor though is that they will be playing on arena ice, which this young team wont have much experience playing on and they are representing their country. Its a lot easier to play well when the eyes of your country are not on you and you are only playing for yourselves.
netherlands actually has a great schedule through their first 5 games , it will be interesting if they can take advantage of that.
Yup, definitely.
You never know what can happen with an event like this. If you had told me before their game last year that Estonia would score 3 in the tenth end to tie and steal 1 in the extra end to beat Scotland I would have probably burst out laughing.
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11-17-15 11:38PM |
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Phil_D
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quote: Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Its a game of inches.
If a team, any team can create a close situation coming home then everything rests on every shot - EVERY SHOT becomes a matter of inches - even fractions of inches!
History shows us that in 1 end showdowns ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN - and often does!
Yes, most definitely true. Not to mention that we're talking about a game that involves sliding hunks of granite down sheets of ice. A lot of variables to say the least, ha ha.
However, I wasn't talking so much about single ends or shots but rather entire games or the event as a whole.
It's one thing to play for money, points, or a trophy. When teams are representing their country (or province) the stakes are higher and the pride that comes from playing for that flag can motivate teams to play at another level. Conversely, a top team might not take a lesser team as a serious threat and underestimate their ability. Thus, you have the recipe for an upset or even a dark-horse team getting several of them.
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11-18-15 04:02PM |
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misty1
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quote: Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
My point exactly - obviously Crystal Webster is unable to stand up to Emma Miskew in the long run (10 ends) and that would be true if Jenn Horgan was in at 3rd. Same for Fleury - she's a nifty little curler - probably the best shooting skip right now in Canada (other than Homan) but I don't think she can withstand the shot-pelting Homan will lay on her - - - especially with higher degree of difficulty as Miskew torments Webster.
Lets put it this way. The only team I can see standing toe to toe with Homan is Jennifer Jones. And that's only the JJ squad from Sochi which steam-rolled competition and was ON FIRE. That team would be slightly better than Homan's squad on a position to position basis. Alas, I fear that team has disappeared and the Jones team of today might be (emphasize might) only the 4th to 6th best team in Canada. Of course, if Jones can unlock her problems (confusion is #1, heaving stones on her delivery is #2) she could be in a position to confront Homan and the others come STOH time.
Do you have to bring these names into a european thread.I mean..can we at least leave the rachel homan and jenniffer jones talk to threads relevant to those teams.
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11-20-15 08:32AM |
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misty1
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predictions for draw 1:
Women:
russia def. switzerland - russia just looks way better at the moment
scotland def. denmark - tricky opening game for both and denmark can certainly win but i expect eve will want to get off to a good start here
sweden def. finland - could be close but cici should pull through
germany def. estonia - germany doesnt have a massive edge over estonia and they will need to play well but i think germany should take it
norway def. hungary - you never know what to expect with norwegian womens teams anymore but this feels like a safe pick
Men:
norway def. scotland - norway looked great at the national. they will have atricky test on scotland, who they did lose to earlier this year but i think norway will edge this one out
switzerland def. germany - this one shouldnt be that close
italy def. russia - going italy over russia here, just a feeling
sweden def. czech republic - new czech team, no snitil here. rough way to start a major championship for them. sweden should take this one
finland def. netherlands - could be tight but think finland's experience will see them, through
Draw 2 women(since this will be over by the time i get up)
switzerland def. norway - switzerland will rebound with a win here
russia def. estonia - this shouldnt be that close
denmark def. germany - denmark wont start 0-2 at home
scotland def. sweden - will be a great one to watch if we can. scotland to edge this one
hungary def. finland - hungary for the upset
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11-20-15 12:47PM |
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misty1
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most of these games by just looking at thje graphics look like a series of bad misses. Doesnt appears as though anyone is really playing well
some of the numbers percentage wise are shockingly low, especially for switzerland
does look like the german skip made a nice double for 4 in the 3rd though
Last edited by misty1 on 11-20-15 at 12:51PM
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11-20-15 01:00PM |
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Sean
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Always hard to predict the women's side of things at Euros. Muirhead is always there but there are so many others in there that could easily win Gold.
For men's though it's been Edin-Ulsrud for years, wonder if another team will dethrone them this year
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11-20-15 04:31PM |
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misty1
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draw 1 thoughts:
WOW did not see eve getting smoked like that. it seems like switzerland and scotland are still wobbling. they both might be there for the taking. Russia didnt curl great but they didnt have to either.
hungary's upset of norway now sees them with a legit chance of getting to the world championship. they can beat finland and estonia for sure and they'd only need 1 more upset win somewhere
germany pasted estonia as i thought and it looks like the middle 2 put up some huge numbers
switzerland looking like they can lose to literally anyone who can pout any kind of pressure on them at all isnt good. things could get interesting if they suffer a couple shock defeats. there's serious concern for switzerland if this is the level they keep all the way through. they wont beat scotland, denmark or sweden curling like they are and thats 4 losses there. Then there are stubborn teams like germany, finland and hungary who wont go away easy and estonia knocked off scotland last year. For a team who's confidence is low and falling fast might there now be legitimate concern they could end up 8th and having to fight for their spot at worlds?
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11-21-15 07:52AM |
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misty1
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Draw 1 men thoughts:
Did not see germany upsetting switzerland coming. had switzerland as one of the favorites, thats a huge win for germany.
norway and sweden through, not unexpected. didnt see norway thrashing them like that though
netherlands with a good come from behind win
italy win over russia, not unexpected
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11-21-15 09:05AM |
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Phil_D
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I was surprised by the Scottish women as well, but not completely. I think I was surprised at the score itself, but not them losing. Lene Nielsen has a lot of experience, and overall they're a fairly solid team. Looks like Scotland is bouncing back against Sweden though.
Wasn't surprised to see Russia over Switzerland either. Paetz has been struggling lately and Sidorova is doing fairly well this season. Sounds like Switzerland really struggled though as opposed to Russia playing exceptional.
Sweden definitely came out swinging. Looks like they're having a hard time with Scotland now.
Outside of Norway & Hungary all the draw 1 scores were pretty lopsided. Save for Scotland/Sweden the current women's draw is close.
As for the men, Norway really piled it on Scotland. Didn't see that coming. I figured Norway would win, but not by that much.
I agree, big surprise to see Germany get the win. From the score looks like a close game though.
No surprise Sweden won.
Looks like the Netherlands upset Finland. Both those teams could be interesting this week.
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11-21-15 09:40AM |
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Phil_D
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quote: Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
At the end of the day they're only 3 very good to excellent teams in this event.
Muirhead, Sidorova, Paetz.
All others playing for 4th.
Eve usually has her letdown early in an event (for whatever reason, perhaps unwilling to bring out the full arsenal for fear of peaking too early) so getting smoked by Neilson isn't a surprise.
The fall of Swedish curling seems to be more of a surprise however. Ostlund is obviously a glorified fawn - Sweden's answer to Crystal Webster. The saddest part is there's nobody better in Sweden. Sigfriddson's game has deteriorated even more than Jennifer Jones, if that's possible!
You're basing your judgment of Ostlund on some of their tour play this year and one game against Scotland. This team is only in their second year as a whole unit, and the first one back under national funding. Look up her resume (along with Carlsson and Kraupp) and and you might be surprised.
Legend, normally I take your hyperbole with a grain of salt but this is ridiculous even for you.
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11-21-15 09:49AM |
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misty1
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doesnt look like switzerland is doing any better today. difference being they are curling a weaker team than russia and maybe getting away with more.
scotland responded with a strong win over sweden
Last edited by misty1 on 11-21-15 at 09:59AM
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11-21-15 10:03AM |
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misty1
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Draw 2 men predictions:
Norway def. netherlands - this might be trickier than it would appear on paper but norway should win. they are in great form right now
scotland def. czech republic - scotland to rebound and get on the board
russia def. switzerland - i will go out on a limb here and take russia over switzerland on a hunch.Russian team is stubborn and wont want an 0-2 start. neither will switzerland but..its a hunch
italy def. finland - could go either way. looks like both teams had up and down performances in draw 1 but i think italy will edge it here.
sweden def. germany - germany had a great win over switzerland but sweden wont let them play as defensively as switzerland did and should win.
Last edited by misty1 on 11-21-15 at 10:05AM
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11-21-15 10:06AM |
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misty1
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looks like russia is having one of those off days and allowing estonia to keep close.
still would expect russia to win though
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11-21-15 11:47AM |
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misty1
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russia scrape out an unexpectedly close game with estonia and denmark get by germany to lead the standings.
switzerland play a little better but they still need to step it up big time here
scotland looked a lot better. did sweden play great in game 1 or wa sthat more finland. im thinking that the finish skip curled in the 20's had a loot to do with it
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11-21-15 01:39PM |
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Sean
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Am I the only one that just noticed that there are no page-playoffs this year at Euros?
Schedule says semis: 1v4, 2v3.
Weird, in previous years they've been using the page playoffs....
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11-21-15 01:54PM |
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misty1
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quote: Originally posted by ObsessiveCurler
Am I the only one that just noticed that there are no page-playoffs this year at Euros?
Schedule says semis: 1v4, 2v3.
Weird, in previous years they've been using the page playoffs....
they moved to the olympic system of doping things in playoffs this year
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