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04-04-17 10:42AM
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guido
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Feb 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 861

quote:
Originally posted by dbsdbs
After 5 draws, Shuster is tied with 2 other skips with 2nd highest scoring percentage, George has 3rd highest percentage among thirds, Hamilton ranks 8th and Landsteiner ranks 5th. After watching USA's 3 losses, I did not expect team USA to be ranked this highly. Proabably a commentary on the field this year -- looks to be one of the weakest Worlds in several years.

Percentages don't mean a damn thing. Everyone is going to miss. You have to miss the right ones.
Strategy also comes into play.

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04-04-17 11:04AM
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IMWright
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Tyler George has been playing pretty well. Has made some key finesse shots to keep them in games. Shuster has missed several big (relatively simple) shots (even if his percentage isn't low).

Is he the best the US has to offer? Probably. He's made his way through the US field pretty easily. He beats the teams he should beats, but doesn't really crack into that top echelon.

His demeanor on the ice is crummy. If I was curling against someone, I would want to be playing against someone with that attitude. Make them miss a shot, they get down themselves, and implode.

My thoughts on the US team this year was if they win the games they're supposed to win and get 1-2 wins against the top teams (Canada, Sweden, Scotland, Switzerland) they'd have a shot at making playoffs. Not sure that's looking too good. So they'll probably end up in the middle of the pack.

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04-04-17 11:42AM
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guido
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quote:
Originally posted by IMWright
Tyler George has been playing pretty well. Has made some key finesse shots to keep them in games. Shuster has missed several big (relatively simple) shots (even if his percentage isn't low).

Is he the best the US has to offer? Probably. He's made his way through the US field pretty easily. He beats the teams he should beats, but doesn't really crack into that top echelon.

His demeanor on the ice is crummy. If I was curling against someone, I would want to be playing against someone with that attitude. Make them miss a shot, they get down themselves, and implode.

My thoughts on the US team this year was if they win the games they're supposed to win and get 1-2 wins against the top teams (Canada, Sweden, Scotland, Switzerland) they'd have a shot at making playoffs. Not sure that's looking too good. So they'll probably end up in the middle of the pack.




This team would be much better with Ty George skipping and a young skilled shotmaker at 3rd.

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04-04-17 11:54AM
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biterbar
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quote:
Originally posted by guido



This team would be much better with Ty George skipping and a young skilled shotmaker at 3rd.



Do you have one to lend US?

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04-04-17 12:57PM
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guido
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Registered: Feb 2011
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quote:
Originally posted by biterbar


Do you have one to lend US?


We have already lent you a few good women's curlers.
By the way the junior men's teams have done lately, should be fairly easy to find one of your own????

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04-04-17 04:52PM
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tuck
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Big cluster at 3 and 3, so it's a little early to be talking about "running the table".

IF you agree with my assessment of the field (Big Two, followed by 6 teams with a legit shot at the playoffs, followed by 4 teams that are probably considered longshots by most), then it's time to look at remaining games.

I'm pretty proud of my guess on Italy, Germany, Russia and the Netherlands being the longshots with my favorite longshot being Italy. I'd be proud of my Big Two insights as well, but that was pretty obvious.

So games remaining against the Big Two are a negative for the 6 Hopefuls; while games against the 4 Longshots are a positive.

Japan has 1 left against each group. Pretty neutral.

China has 1 against the Big Two and have already played all the longshots. Pretty negative.

Norway has 2 games left against longshots and have already faced Sweden and Canada. Very favorable.

The Swiss have 1 left against the Big Two and 2 against the longshots. Sitting on a 5 and 1 record now, they look very safe.

Our USA team has Sweden left for our last game, but still play 2 of the longshots.

Don't count out the Scots. Yes, they are 2 and 4 with one of the toughest teams left to play; but they also have 3 of the longshot teams remaining.

So the playoff picture currently looks like Canada, Sweden, Switzerland and tiebreakers. Norway and the USA look like the most likely teams to make the tiebreaker.

Ben Tucker (pretty proud of my Italy prediction even if it falls apart later in the week)

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04-04-17 05:32PM
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dugless_zone 13
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Considering Norway plays Canada last game of the round robin its amazing they have played them already.

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04-04-17 06:04PM
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biterbar
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quote:
Originally posted by dugless_zone 13
Considering Norway plays Canada last game of the round robin its amazing they have played them already.


Tuck has beet planting on his mind, Norway has lost to Sweden, Switzerland and the USA. If they hold off Japan, leading 6-4 right now, they are in good shape to go 7-4 (China, Germany, Italy). I assume that if they and the USA tie, the US is in.

Quite honestly I think 4th place tiebreakers happen at 5 losses.

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04-04-17 06:24PM
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biterbar
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Wow, Norway is imploding. Up by 4 after the third they just gave up 4 to Japan in the eighth to go down 8-6.

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04-04-17 10:03PM
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tuck
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Oops. Mistake on my little spreadsheet with Norway. In my defense...well...no real excuse...oops.

With the added knowledge of another draw, it now looks like Japan and our team are looking most likely to make a tiebreaker. That makes this Draw 11 game versus Japan extremely important. If we have to finish with Sweden, I hope we have a spare win in our pocket.

As far as tiebreakers go, I've lost track of current WCF protocols. Head to head important these days? Again...oops.

Still can't count out the pesky Scots.

Ben Tucker

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04-05-17 12:24AM
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IN-OFF-FOR-2
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Team Shuster

You guys seem to be very hard on Shuster and team. I had the privilege meeting the team at the worlds in Halifax. All of them great guys and great ambassadors of US curling. Shuster himself can compete with the best but sometimes it's just an untimely miss or untimely strategy call that's the difference.

Thanks to Matt for letting us poke fun at his porno moustache.

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04-05-17 06:42AM
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AlanMacNeill
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quote:
Originally posted by tuck

As far as tiebreakers go, I've lost track of current WCF protocols. Head to head important these days? Again...oops.



Yes.

Tiebreakers work like this:

- Ties of 2 teams for one slot or 4 for 2 (or, conceivably 6 for 3, I guess) are broken on the ice, one game for the marbles. Basically "One draw of tiebreakers, max"

- Other ties are resolved into 2-1, 4-2, or 6-3 via the following protocol:

- Head to Head within Tied teams first
- Cumulative LSD (minus worst or 2 worst depending on how many have been taken during the tournament, for Worlds, it's 2)
- If LSD is tied betwen 2 or more teams, the worst remaining draws are removed and recalculation occurs, iteratively, until the tie is resolved
- In the exceedingly unlikely event iterative LSD elimination doesn't resolve the tie, it is broken by lots or a coin flip.

Once seeded, teams are first *awarded* berths if possible (so, for example, if 3 teams are tied for 2 slots, the best team in the ranking is given the highest slot, then the other two play off). If it is necessary, teams are eliminated (3 teams for 1 slot - 3rd place team is out).

Then the single round of tiebreakers occurs.

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04-05-17 11:53AM
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tuck
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Thanks, Alan. The merits and demerits of such tiebreaker rules have probably been discussed elsewhere in Curlingzone. I imagine that the USA has adopted the same rules, but I have no idea.

Of the 3 teams currently at 4-3 (Italy, USA and Japan), the Italians seem to have the toughest remaining schedule (Swiss, Scots, Canada and Norway). Japan also has a pretty tough row to hoe (Russia, but then Canada, Swiss and China). Not an easy schedule, but the easiest of those teams would be our guys (Germany, China, Netherlands and Sweden).

IF we get the next three games before we have to face a very good Swedish team, things look very good. That China game worries me.

China and Norway are just getting started as I type this. The loser drops to 3-5 and almost mathematically out of it. China has a tough draw left (Norway, USA, Swiss and Japan). Norway finishes with Germany, Italy and Canada.

Pesky Scots need to lose to Sweden this morning. They finish with Italy, Germany and Russia. Should they beat the Swedes, they will probably run the table.

I'm guessing that at least one of the teams currently at 4-3 will finish with just one more loss to end up at 7-4. I know it's very possible that all three (USA, Japan, Italy) drop 2 or more games. Then 6-5 becomes the magic mark.

My prediction is that our guys will win the next 3 games (China worries me) and will have the playoff spot locked up before the last game vs Sweden.

Ben Tucker

Last edited by tuck on 04-05-17 at 11:56AM

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04-05-17 02:54PM
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jzwanzig
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Dec 2013
Location: Halifax
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Re: Team Shuster

quote:
Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
You guys seem to be very hard on Shuster and team. I had the privilege meeting the team at the worlds in Halifax. All of them great guys and great ambassadors of US curling. Shuster himself can compete with the best but sometimes it's just an untimely miss or untimely strategy call that's the difference.




Completely agree, they're a great team and great for curling.

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04-05-17 04:09PM
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tuck
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In Off For Two and jzwanzig (lordy, that is hard to type), I agree but you'll have to forgive us.

I count most of the guys on this team as friends, so I'm biased. For the normal USA curling fan, we keep hoping for that last step into the elite of the world and being a serious contender for the championship. I think this team can be that; but most down in The States don't share my optimism.

For my Canadian commentators, think of us as Toronto Maple Leaf fans. Good team...we just lack faith and need them to prove it to us. Once they do well, we will all say that we knew they could do it.

Ben Tucker

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04-05-17 04:46PM
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courtneyshaw
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Registered: Aug 2012
Location: Washington, DC
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It's pretty sad to see everyone ragging on the US team so bad. They are nice guys and great curlers. By their own admission they lost a bit of their spark this season from a maybe overly ambitious schedule, but how quickly we forget that they won the first world medal for the US is quite some time. Shuster is a passionate and emotional player and would probably benefit from more supportive fans instead of all the back seat criticism.

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04-05-17 05:55PM
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TJNCJ
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Registered: Nov 2008
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quote:
Originally posted by courtneyshaw
It's pretty sad to see everyone ragging on the US team so bad. They are nice guys and great curlers. By their own admission they lost a bit of their spark this season from a maybe overly ambitious schedule, but how quickly we forget that they won the first world medal for the US is quite some time. Shuster is a passionate and emotional player and would probably benefit from more supportive fans instead of all the back seat criticism.


I think the vast majority of American curlers are on John's side and realize this is our best team. Don't take the comments here as an indication people aren't rooting for Team USA. They are currently set up well to make a tiebreaker at minimum and have a good chance at qualifying direct. They are curling very well and their confidence is building.

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04-05-17 06:40PM
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AlanMacNeill
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And in the all important Olympic Qualification race....that win over Germany clinches it.

The least they can get out of this championships, Qual Point wise, is 4 (9th place), that would give them 14.

There are 7 teams who could, theoretically, still reach 15 or more points:

Canada (already clinched)
Japan
Norway
Sweden
GB
Switzerland
Germany

However, there is no combination of wins and losses remaining which would result in all 7 of those teams actually doing so.

As such, the USA has clinched at least 7th place in the overall standings, which means....pack your bags for the five ring circus!

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04-05-17 06:54PM
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I wish I could quickly agree with you, TJNCJ, but that's not what I've been hearing. The curlers I talk with seem to be big Shoostie fans if they know him or are from the Minnesota area. I fear that most others haven't forgiven his past Olympic finishes. That's what I mostly hear. Locally, I often have to defend them.

That is a shame. Back-to-back World Men's medals would certainly turn things around. Get through these next games against China and the Netherlands...then ease up for a meaningless game against the Swedes with Joe Polo getting in some ice time...then blast the Swiss for bronze...or maybe get hot and do even better.

I have to agree with Ms. Shaw on this one. However, in American sports one must be able to deal with a fickle fan base because that's who we are.

Ben Tucker

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04-05-17 07:56PM
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quote:
Originally posted by tuck
I wish I could quickly agree with you, TJNCJ, but that's not what I've been hearing. The curlers I talk with seem to be big Shoostie fans if they know him or are from the Minnesota area. I fear that most others haven't forgiven his past Olympic finishes. That's what I mostly hear. Locally, I often have to defend them.

That is a shame. Back-to-back World Men's medals would certainly turn things around. Get through these next games against China and the Netherlands...then ease up for a meaningless game against the Swedes with Joe Polo getting in some ice time...then blast the Swiss for bronze...or maybe get hot and do even better.

I have to agree with Ms. Shaw on this one. However, in American sports one must be able to deal with a fickle fan base because that's who we are.

Ben Tucker



Tuck, I'm in the same boat.

Big fan, big supporter...and I too find myself time and time again having to defend them (especially John). It's a shame, really...I agree though, I think people are hung up on the Olympics.

As for this Worlds, I give them good odds of going 7-4 and an outside chance of 8-3. Either way I see them qualifying directly.

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04-05-17 10:39PM
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Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Aug 2012
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Thanks Tuck, Although I did go to 4 years of evil medical school so that I would never be called Ms.

I do agree, American fans are a fickle group. Funny how the tables will turn and the support will pour in WHEN they make it it to the play offs. John suffers from a affliction I am all too familiar with, an overwhelming amount of passion. I can only imagine how hard it is to listen to all the nay sayers.

I just hope they remember that some of us send our unconditional support. They can medal again. I just hope for a change in color!

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04-06-17 08:29AM
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I'm amazed it's the next morning and I'm the first to say that Shuster and Company played about as close to a perfect game as possible last night in dispatching China with ruthless efficiency, 8-2 in 7 ends.

I admit, China did their part to help Shuster by missing some key shots early, and as we all know it's a ton easier to play from ahead, but Shuster also did exceptionally well in placing China in spots where they had to play a well executed and performed shot...apply pressure and sometimes the other team will miss...this was one of those cases...and I didn't see any times when Shuster didn't pounce on those misses.

Honestly, the game was more lopsided than the score indicates, if such a thing is possible.

So, with all teams having 2 games to play, the US sits a clear 4th, and holds tiebreakers over all of the teams with a change to catch them other than Scotland (who sit 2 games behind, but both games are against the bottom feeders for this tournament, so 6-5 seems likely for them).

Catching Switzerland for 3rd is not out of the question (Switzerland has 2 harder games remaining, Japan and China), and in moderately pie in the sky dreams, if Shuster beats the Netherlands this morning, they would be in a spot where winning their final round robin game (vs Edin) could give them a shot at 2nd (although Sweden finishes up the round robin against the same Netherlands team, so the odds are steep).

Winning either remaining game today clinches at least a tie for 4th. Unless Japan wins out, even an 0-2 performance today leaves Shuster in the tiebreaker mix, with a fairly good record among teams possibly in the hairball.

Not bad for "The Worst Team We Could Possibly Send" (tm - too many of the folks here)

Last edited by AlanMacNeill on 04-06-17 at 08:32AM

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04-06-17 08:50AM
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Shuster did shoot the perfect game last night, 100%, I wonder if a USA player or skip has ever done that before? I seems that the confidence is growing, they are giving better brooms and have the release matched to the ice.

The trend is moving up and I have highest hopes for big day and playoffs for Team Shuster.

As for naysayers, most of the grumbling in my neck of the woods is about the HP system and not this team. Of course us Cheesehead's claim John and Matt as our own.

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Last edited by biterbar on 04-06-17 at 08:54AM

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04-06-17 10:17AM
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I have to give the HPP credit for one thing..
.
They awoke the sleeping giant...and (bleep)ed him off.

Shuster's team has been curling with a fire and a desire ever since the HPP shunned him 3 seasons ago.

Yeah, he's in it now, because they couldn't keep him out of it...but it's the self-formed independant team and it's fire that's carrying them right now.

Kinda funny that the one good thing they've done was a horrible decision...

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04-06-17 11:18AM
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BIG morning for USA curling! If we beat the Netherlands and the Swiss beat Japan, we're IN! Last game would be meaningless; unless an unlikely scenario happens and we could move up.

Nice posts from Alan and Biter...except that Biter and the cheeseheads aren't allowed to claim John. True, Hammy is every bit as cheesy as that mustache...but John is a dang gopher. I'm not fond of gophers, but they are better than cheeseheads.

I'm trying hard to keep my optimism in check, but it's getting difficult.

Ben Tucker

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