Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Teams in the Olympics - Canada, Scotland, Norway, Sweden.

Teams for the next 3 spots - China (to make Tuck happy), Switzerland, Denmark, US

Remaining games (current record)
US (3-4) FIN, CZE, RUS, NOR
China (4-3) SUI, DEN, SCO, FIN
Denmark (5-2) SUI, CHN, SWE, CAN
Switzerland (3-4) DEN, CHN, JPN, CZE

Would be good if China wins both against Denmark and Swiss. I will change my mind on the DEN-SUI game and root for Denmark. Denmark loses the next 3, Switzerland goes 2-2 and US goes 3-1.

US 6-5
Denmark 6-5
Swiss 5-6

China, US and Denmark go to the Olympics.

JH

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Registered: Nov 2008
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So Tuck wants me to start typing?

OK.

Well, since I am already 108 holes behind 2012 AND the fairways still have some drifts AND the ground is still frozen, I was forced to hit off the mat.

Very few years have I had my game on so early. I am currently duck hooking AND hitting the power slice on alternate drives.

TJ
Not eating crow until the next three games are over.

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Registered: Sep 2002
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Very nice comeback. One down, two to go. With the Swiss win, need to keep pace with them and need Denmark to fold like a three dollar bill. Not over yet. Czech(oslovakia) can be tough. No let up here boys.

JH
USA!USA!USA!

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As of right now, we're tied for 7th in the Olympic standings...losing the tiebreaker to Switzerland on their placement over us this year.

But, Team USA is in control of it's destiny. Win out and we will be in...I did the math. If someone really wants all of the combinatronics, I can list em out (hooray Excel...), but the key thing is that if the US goes undefeated the rest of the way, we will be in the Olympics.

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So....here's a breakdown on how the US, if they win out, are guaranteed at least a tiebreaker for 2nd, and an Olympic berth...

It assumes Worst Case scenarios, which means that every game goes as badly as possible for the US...teams that would benefit against us with a win win, teams that can afford losses and still be ahead of us lose, and of course, US wins all three remaining

The only game not actually posessing a "forced" determination by those rules becomes Scotland v Sweden...the winner of which becomes the 1 seed with 8 wins, the loser joins Denmark, China, Switzerland, Canada and the US in a six way tiebreaker for the two through seven spots.

That gets settled on the ice, per rule, since playoff berths are on the line and you can't get eliminated other than on the ice. I believe the US would have one of the higher seeds in the playoffocalypse based on head to head within the group, but I'll be honest, I didn't run that math.

Regardless of how we'd do there, we would be ahead of Norway this year, they tie 8th with Czech Rep. So long as we don't end up placing fifth or 6th in that six way tiebreaker, we qualify for the Olympics.

So, basically...win and we're in...that is all.

(and note...there are actual procedures for a six way tiebreaker to qualify three teams to the 2-4 slot in a page...bonus points to whomever can accurately point out exactly where they are in the rules of play for this season)

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Registered: Aug 2012
Location: Washington, DC
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Interesting morning...

Unfortunate pick for Jacobs on his first rock in the 10th, but letting Japan take two 3-ends really put him in it.

Ulsrud's rink did not look sharp. Still stuck in the mud after that terrible second-half of their draw last night v. CAN?

Go Clark! You've got some momentum. But watch out for that crafty Snitil...

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Registered: Jan 2011
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quote:

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Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
So....here's a breakdown on how the US, if they win out, are guaranteed at least a tiebreaker for 2nd, and an Olympic berth...

It assumes Worst Case scenarios, which means that every game goes as badly as possible for the US...teams that would benefit against us with a win win, teams that can afford losses and still be ahead of us lose, and of course, US wins all three remaining

The only game not actually posessing a "forced" determination by those rules becomes Scotland v Sweden...the winner of which becomes the 1 seed with 8 wins, the loser joins Denmark, China, Switzerland, Canada and the US in a six way tiebreaker for the two through seven spots.

That gets settled on the ice, per rule, since playoff berths are on the line and you can't get eliminated other than on the ice. I believe the US would have one of the higher seeds in the playoffocalypse based on head to head within the group, but I'll be honest, I didn't run that math.

Regardless of how we'd do there, we would be ahead of Norway this year, they tie 8th with Czech Rep. So long as we don't end up placing fifth or 6th in that six way tiebreaker, we qualify for the Olympics.

So, basically...win and we're in...that is all.

(and note...there are actual procedures for a six way tiebreaker to qualify three teams to the 2-4 slot in a page...bonus points to whomever can accurately point out exactly where they are in the rules of play for this season)

---

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Registered: Sep 2002
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Yes, you can't be "eliminated" except on the ice but TBs can be used for placement. So they will place the 2 and 3 teams then have a 4 way TB for 4th.

And you need to go back and look at the possibilities. Denmark and Switzerland win the rest and the US does as well. We would get a TB against SUI for 4th which we would have to win to get to the Olys directly. Lose the TB and finish 5th and it is OQE.

Here are the simple numbers
US 7-4
Denmark 8-3
Switzerland 7-4

JH
the WCF wants to eliminate TBs, there is no way they are having a 6 team playoff for 3 spots. If that happened, there would not be any tb games in the future.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Japan, Really? This ain't your K-Mart or Howards Canada. These guys are not that good, if you ranked the top 5 teams in the World they don't get a vote. Oh well!

Watch out for the Snitil boys they know a thing or two about Green Cards. Objection your Honor! Over-ruled!

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Registered: Dec 2005
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I will have to disagree with Melvin on the Jacob's pick with his seven rock.

From what I saw, the Canadian sweepers were Right Off for good reason. The stone, before the pick, looked to be glancing off the Canadian third-shot-rock biting the top of the four-foot. The line was, certainly, not good and the weight might have been a little warm. If it rubbed their other rock, the shooter would bounce and Japan would be looking at an easy double takeout. As far as picks go...I've seen worse.

Without the pick, I don't see Jacob's seven stone being a great shot. Granted, most picks suck...if only that we will never know.

I do believe, however, that Japan was playing the runback with their final stone and were lucky to slash the Canadian counter out of the rings. Whether they were playing the slash or the runback...the Japanese skip almost fell coming out of the hack. High pressure times, indeed.

But this thread is about Team USA and Willy's odds. My China longshot remains a longshot...but I'm OK with that. Still a good bet with those odds.

Willy, what is the line on every USA fan going from "Worried about the Olympic Spot" to "Looking Good to make the Playoffs"? Seems like a 50/50 deal to me depending on tonight's game.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
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Japan was playing the pick on the last. Russ could not believe it but that was the call.

Some of us (okay, maybe just me) are still worried about the Oly spot. Playoffs or even a TB at this point would be "icing on the cake". Brady and crew need to win the next two. Then, to quote coach Mora "playoffs, you talkin' about playoffs?"

JH
Tuck is smart and usually right. Hoping that he is right this time.

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Registered: Oct 2012
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Make or break game against the Czechs tonight. A win and we're looking at the Playoffs. A loss and we're looking at the Olympic prequalifier tournament.

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Registered: Dec 2012
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should SCO beat SWE tonight, the winner of USA-CZE will move into a 4-way tie for 4th place. should be quite a race down the stretch...

Last edited by westcoveroadie on 04-03-13 at 09:36PM

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

3 in the first, no retainer for you snitil. See you in the morning.... 4 in a row Tucktradamus called it, thats one smart farmer......

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Not the result I wanted to see this morning. Denmark winning does not help.

Have to win both remaining games and get some help.

Remaining games [oly points] (current record)
US [5] (4-5) RUS, NOR Wins over DEN,CHN loss to SUI
China [7] (5-4) SCO, FIN
Denmark [6] (6-3) SWE, CAN
Switzerland [4](4-5) JPN, CZE

Rankings in RR have ties broken by head to head. China would have to lose both and finish two spots behind. Denmark needs to lose both. Switzerland has to lose one. Can't afford a tie with Swiss, they would get both the RR TB and the OLY TB.

JH
USA!!

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Registered: Dec 2005
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Crap.

I watched a pretty bad game between China and Denmark. Who is keeping the stats on these guys? Their mothers?

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Apr 2005
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USA can't stand prosperity. Score 3, give up 3. Score 2, give up 2. Gotta play defense when you get the big lead. The top teams have the weapons to doggedly defend a 2-3 point lead. I don't think you are going to beat Scotland or Canada too many times when you give up 3 in the first.

Sigh. Better tune up for the Olympic tiebreaker, and it will be no picnic. Folks, if the US men don't get into the Olympics it will be a recruiting disaster for curling next year. Let's hope we can get through. At least the women will be able to carry the flag in Sochi.

Cheers.

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Because I like to look at these things, it is possible for 7 teams to finish at 6-5 and tied for the last two playoff spots.

That would be DEN, SWE, CHN, CZE, NOR, SUI, USA. The first draw will be telling. Should be a really interesting day of curling.

JH
might have to watch the WCF feed at Noon.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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1. Brady can run the table keep our spot in Sochi.

2. The Qualifier will feature teams like New Zealand, Japan and Finland. Totally winnable and, as Alan said, might end up being a good thing...even though I disagree.

3. The ladies, if we are winning, gather more interest than the men.

No gloom and doom from me yet. Brady will win the next one and set up a thriller with a very good team from Norway.

Ben Tucker

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Persinger is throwing second today.

When will the US teams start developing monster front ends like the Canadians (men and women). Brady can lead the skips in percentages but when the front end are both 12th it is tough to compete.

I mean that as no offense to our guys, but the US needs to find guys who want to commit to be good front end players and not added in after a skip and vice get together.

Maybe there are candidates in those 32 teams who signed us for the challenge round?


TJ

Last edited by TJNCJ on 04-04-13 at 12:23PM

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quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
1. Brady can run the table keep our spot in Sochi.

2. The Qualifier will feature teams like New Zealand, Japan and Finland. Totally winnable and, as Alan said, might end up being a good thing...even though I disagree.

3. The ladies, if we are winning, gather more interest than the men.

No gloom and doom from me yet. Brady will win the next one and set up a thriller with a very good team from Norway.

Ben Tucker

---

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Registered: Feb 2009
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quote:

---

Originally posted by TJNCJ
Persinger is throwing second today.

When will the US teams start developing monster front ends like the Canadians (men and women). Brady can lead the skips in percentages but when the front end are both 12th it is tough to compete.

I mean that as no offense to our guys, but the US needs to find guys who want to commit to be good front end players and not added in after a skip and vice get together.

Maybe there are candidates in those 32 teams who signed us for the challenge round?


TJ

---

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I'm not sure anyone can argue with TJNCJ assessment. Does anyone else agree that this may be what is holding the US back? Fenson's success over the past 10 years would support that. Some changes, but more consistency and better play than most US teams. In Canada, Hebert, Kennedy, Huff and Puff,

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Fenson is a great example.

Polo, Shuster, even Tyler George have all gotten Fenson to the playoffs or Olympic bronze.

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30 plus teams play down this year. Not many world class teams but a lot of world class players.

Ok, I'm done now. Lol

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