Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Where's the equality, people?

Nine teams for 5 (maybe 6...but my prediction is that the Junior Men will decline their invitation and that the Junior Women will accept their invitation...no insights...just a guess).

Erika Brown-Tetley gets the 1 seed and looks like a mortal lock. Debbie McCormick gets the 2 seed and looks equally locked.

Then the field evens out. Any of them could advance. Some more likely than others (obviously), but not much separating them.

I'm having trouble believing that Ann Drummie's team, Kim Wapola's team and Jordan Moulton's team aren't listed anywhere. Does Ann have Gabrielle Coleman? Who is Jordan with? Kinda hard to make predictions with incomplete information.

Kate Bert is Allison Pottinger's sister. She has a very good front end. Schummer at third is an asset. Bismarck native (now California) Steph Jensen at second was once a National Junior winner. Emily Anderson is a sister of the Tiny Terrorists and skipped that family to win at Nationals in Philly last year (flu bug took out 2 of the 5 person team). This team has played some. Not with great results, but I love their chances to advance.

Emily Brekke brings a Grand Forks team that used to play a lot of Juniors. Good team. They got a shot. Opening with McCormick isn't great, but that big of a disadvantage. Every team will most likely either lose early or face one of the Two Locks.

Joyance Meechi has a very young and very strong front two and experience with Strojny at third. Joy will need to get back to last year's Mixed Doubles championship form to make the trip to Kalamazoo.

Susan Mitchell come out of North Carolina, but I think her team is from all over. If they've played much this year, I missed it.

Here's The Game: It's the Morehouse Pick Three

You have to pick 5 teams and they have to finish in the top 6. Extra points for anybody dumb enough NOT to pick Erika and Debbie. Go against the Two Locks and you might scoop the pot. To save curlingzone.com space, the rest of will all start our picks with E&D standing for the Two Locks.

I'm not making my picks until I see the rosters for Wapola, Drummie and Moulton.

Ben Tucker
With Seniors and Juniors fast approaching, somebody else can introduce the fields and start the picks.

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Registered: Feb 2013
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Posts: 812

Don't think it was that long ago when several states had 9 teams playing for 1 or 2 slots at Nationals. Ah, progress...

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Registered: Mar 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 140

Teams are listed in the seeding spreadsheets, under a separate tab called "Calculations"

http://www.teamusa.org/~/media/USA_...eeding2015.xlsx

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Registered: Jan 2012
Location: DeWitt, MI
Posts: 100

Big Red has 3 ladies from Detroit, multiple GLCA regional wins among them. One gal lives close enough to Sarnia to play there too on a regular basis with Stitch and Snakers from Team Debbie. I like their chances to finish top half of the pack, especially if Sue breaks out the jello shots. If you've been to the Carolina Classic, you know what I'm talking about.

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Registered: Sep 2011
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Posts: 1064

Here's me going out on a pretty darned thin limb...

Not suicidally thin...I'm still taking the two locks...but my other three choices are:

Drummie
Meechai
Brekke

Why? Because reasons...

Individual components of Drummie's team have been kicking my rear at Potomac for years now...not that that's uncommon mind you...but still...and I trust in their superior clock management skills to somehow create at least one win...that's a joke folks...honestly, I think they can get there, all they need is top 1/2 of the field.

Meechai has Nationals experience at 2nd. My experience is that 2nds are highly underrated...so I'm putting them in. Besides, they're peer seeded 5th...playing to seed gets them in.

Brekke I'm choosing because if they pull it off, I look psychic.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Two Locks, Bert, Brekke and Moulton. Moulton has Sophie Brorson at lead. Ever notice that whomever has The Sophinator at lead usually wins?

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Nov 2004
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Posts: 52

Hey Tuck... I am curious why the USCA would choose to have a challenge round in Bismark, ND when you have only 9 teams for either 5 or 6 spots(another discussion that needs to be had).
Wouldn't it have been easier to have all those teams go to Kalamazoo and have a pre-qualifier prior to the Nationals.
Teams that do not make it go home, the balance stay for the Nationals.
And speaking of stacking the deck, the teams that have pre-qualified can go to spiels on the HP dime and earn points that would further the spread of points so that Nationals do become a bit of a "fait accompli"; meanwhile teams have to travel to Bismark to qualify. The system is starting to crumble IMO.

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

quote:

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Originally posted by chubb
Hey Tuck... I am curious why the USCA would choose to have a challenge round in Bismark, ND when you have only 9 teams for either 5 or 6 spots(another discussion that needs to be had).
Wouldn't it have been easier to have all those teams go to Kalamazoo and have a pre-qualifier prior to the Nationals.
Teams that do not make it go home, the balance stay for the Nationals.
And speaking of stacking the deck, the teams that have pre-qualified can go to spiels on the HP dime and earn points that would further the spread of points so that Nationals do become a bit of a "fait accompli"; meanwhile teams have to travel to Bismark to qualify. The system is starting to crumble IMO.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Uuummm...I hate to disagree with JHcurl, but I think that points that go towards who gets the free pass to Kalamazoo stop after Eveleth; however the points counting towards who gets to Worlds are still being added. The US Open in Blaine last week, for example, would have impacted who gets to be Team USA.

Chubb, I've been on the "these are steps down the wrong road" rant for too long now. I'm sorry that your pretty wife has to survive -20 fahrenheit with -40 wind chills and a small field, but she'll come home to you and the boys more appreciative of a warm hug. Unlimited snuggling for at least 5 days. It's good to be Chubb.

As for the concept of having a Kalamazoo qualifying event: Arena ice is very expensive by USA curling standards. Plus, when they make the plans their hope if for more teams.

As for those who have mentioned the small field: Women's Nationals was a Sign Up And Go not very long ago. Not long ago we were doomed to a Nationals field with only 3 or 4 serious contenders. The past isn't as rosy as we remember. That being said, recent National Women's depth has spoiled us rotten. Allison, Courtney, Cassie, Jamie and others...I miss you.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Feb 2013
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Posts: 812

quote:

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Originally posted by tuck


As for those who have mentioned the small field: Women's Nationals was a Sign Up And Go not very long ago. Not long ago we were doomed to a Nationals field with only 3 or 4 serious contenders.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Nov 2007
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Posts: 142

quote:

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Originally posted by dbsdbs


How many serious contenders do we have this year? And how many teams already know they cannot be team USA even if they win the Nationals?

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

EVERYBODY is still alive; as long as Sormunen and Roth (nee Spatola) BOTH finish outside of the top three. IF (and I'm guessing here) that there are 15 points available for winning the Final, anybody can catch Patti Lank at 6.7 points.

If either Aileen or Nina make the top 3, then they will be Team USA.

Not to make the point for those with whom I disagree, but: Playing for the National Championship is a goal unto itself. Not going to Worlds would suck, but you're still the National Champion and that ain't shabby. (please don't take this paragraph as an endorsement of the current system...my opposition is a matter of record)

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2011
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quote:

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Originally posted by tuck
EVERYBODY is still alive; as long as Sormunen and Roth (nee Spatola) BOTH finish outside of the top three. IF (and I'm guessing here) that there are 15 points available for winning the Final, anybody can catch Patti Lank at 6.7 points.

If either Aileen or Nina make the top 3, then they will be Team USA.

Not to make the point for those with whom I disagree, but: Playing for the National Championship is a goal unto itself. Not going to Worlds would suck, but you're still the National Champion and that ain't shabby. (please don't take this paragraph as an endorsement of the current system...my opposition is a matter of record)

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Oops, the question was "how many serious contenders do we have this year?" That depends on your definition of "serious".

If you define "serious" as those teams that tried, I suppose we have over a dozen. If you mean "serious" as in "practiced and played together and put invested money", then we have about 8. If you are silly enough to define "serious" as teams that Tuck thinks have a decent shot at the title, well then you are down to around 4 or 5 (maybe 6 if the Junior Girls decide to play).

Hope this was helpful to you and not disrespectful to the teams who entered and traveled. As those teams know well, to win at higher levels you have to play together and travel. Entering a playdown for Nationals is a good thing, even for a throw-together team...but winning it requires more. Me pointing out that those teams who don't play frequently and against good competition is not an insult to your talent...I'm just pointing out something that you well know.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Feb 2013
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So we have 4 or maybe 5 serious contenders which means that the odds of Nina or Aileen both not finishing in top 3 is preety small. Good for those other teams that are going for the experience but the lack of "suspense" certainly minimizes the attraction of attending the event as a fan.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Oh, come on now.

As much as I detest the current World Selection Process, attending Kalamazoo would be wonderful. The are still playing for a National title and you get to watch and talk to some great curlers. You'll be the first to know about rising stars and you'll get a sense of some personalities. Plus, next year it is in Florida and we can't miss that.

Aileen and Nina could both miss top 3. Patti, Erika and Debbie are pretty tough. If the Junior Girls play (assuming Christensen or an equally tough team wins in Devils Lake), then I could see both Points Leaders missing out on the medal stand. 5% chance if the Juniors don't play or if a weak Junior team gets through...15% if Christensen plays.

Nina just qualified in the Bernese Cup. I suspect that comes with points, but I'm unclear if those points go towards World Team Selection. Either way, good for the girls and good for the USA.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Looks like the points would count based on this

Teams can count their 6 best Order of Merit (OOM) results going into Nationals;
however, a team may only use a maximum of 4 U.S. based OOM events toward their total of 6 results.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

OK, let me see if I can get this right:

Christensen and Dropkin will be in Kalamazoo regardless of the outcome in Junior Nationals. That's already a done deal. IF they win Junior Nationals, then the sixth place team from the Challenge Rounds in Bismarck and Seattle will get a spot...if they want it.

IF Christensen or Dropkin lose in Juniors, then the winning team will offered the spot. IF they decline, again the spot will be offered to the CR sixth place teams.

Sorry I biffed it. I don't pay as much attention as I used to pay.

So back to the question: Will both or either Nina and/or Aileen make the Top 3 For Sure? With Christensen there for sure and a possibility of another good Junior rink making it to Kalamazoo...it's still an Odd-On situation (meaning it is more than 50% likely). Erika, Debbie, Cory and Patti all are good skips of good teams and one of the others could step up. For both Nina and Eileen to fall out of the Top 3, however, isn't likely...but wouldn't be surprising either.

Ben Tucker
I stand corrected

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Registered: Sep 2011
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quote:

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Originally posted by tuck
OK, let me see if I can get this right:

Christensen and Dropkin will be in Kalamazoo regardless of the outcome in Junior Nationals. That's already a done deal. IF they win Junior Nationals, then the sixth place team from the Challenge Rounds in Bismarck and Seattle will get a spot...if they want it.

IF Christensen or Dropkin lose in Juniors, then the winning team will offered the spot. IF they decline, again the spot will be offered to the CR sixth place teams.

Sorry I biffed it. I don't pay as much attention as I used to pay.

So back to the question: Will both or either Nina and/or Aileen make the Top 3 For Sure? With Christensen there for sure and a possibility of another good Junior rink making it to Kalamazoo...it's still an Odd-On situation (meaning it is more than 50% likely). Erika, Debbie, Cory and Patti all are good skips of good teams and one of the others could step up. For both Nina and Eileen to fall out of the Top 3, however, isn't likely...but wouldn't be surprising either.

Ben Tucker
I stand corrected

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Registered: Feb 2011
Location: Plymouth, MN
Posts: 159

Haven't seen anything that makes it sound like the winning Jr team will have the option of declining the spot at nationals. My assumption is if a non-HP team win's Jr's and then says they refuse to go to nationals then the USCA will say fine, we're sending the HP Jr. team to Worlds.

Tuck is right (of course) that Patti, Erika, and Debbie could be the top 3. Misty1 must be looking for long shot trifecta odds

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Registered: Sep 2011
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quote:

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Originally posted by MNIceman
Haven't seen anything that makes it sound like the winning Jr team will have the option of declining the spot at nationals. My assumption is if a non-HP team win's Jr's and then says they refuse to go to nationals then the USCA will say fine, we're sending the HP Jr. team to Worlds.

Tuck is right (of course) that Patti, Erika, and Debbie could be the top 3. Misty1 must be looking for long shot trifecta odds

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Registered: Oct 2002
Location: Omaha, Nebraska, USA
Posts: 1713

With the instigation of the "Order of Merit" rule, we could have a 3rd place team go to the worlds?

What next, rub salt in the wounds by having a 1st place non OoM team not even get an invite to the Continental Cup???

Don't care that much for nationals now. My curling dollars are going elsewhere.

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