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curlny
Hitting Paint

Registered: Dec 2005
Location:
Posts: 178

The Belmont

Should have around 4 inches of rain between tonight and post time. Time for predictions.....

__________________
JL

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Old Post 06-06-13 04:01PM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1305

The horse/jockey that can swim the best. Wonder if any of the diving horses from the Steel Pier are still around?

They do call it "big sandy" for a reason. It will be messy, sloppy, etc. but someone will win. Bet all the horses over 10-1 to win. That puts Tuck's horse, Palice Malice, right in the mix at 15-1. 10 horses at ML odds of 12-1 or more, so $20 ticket ($2 win on each) might make some money.

Of course Shug is running on his home track. So, I would key Orb on top and bottom in the exacta.

$40 play ($2 on each ticket)
Orb with the 10 horses over 10-1
10 horses with Orb

Either of those is at least a $40 payout and could be a lot more.

Now, history says the Derby and Preakness winners (different horses) have run in the Belmont 12 times in last 40 years. 6 wins for the Preakness winner (Oxbow), 1 win for the Derby winner (Orb) and 5 wins by neither. So, throw Orb out for the win and bet him for 2nd or 3rd.

All (13 horses) with Orb - $2 exacta for $26. All-Orb-all $1 tri for $182, all-all-Orb for the same $182.

To answer the question - #9 Revolutionary is your winner.

JH
This I know about, the OOM, not so much

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Old Post 06-06-13 05:03PM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2171

Holy buckets, JH is spending money again. At least it's cheaper than his Orb/all/all Preakness ticket that drained the college fund savings accounts all over the nation.

With rain rolling through New York, the sun is finally shining here in my wide, flat valley. Planting is rolling, so I will not be betting. I'm not so in love with the ponies to have an online account.

If I was able to get in a bet, it would be a 5 horse trifecta box. That costs as much as JH's "bet the whole field" strategy, but what the heck. It would have Palace Malice, Orb, Revolutionary, Golden Soul and Freedom Child. I'd also put them in a superfecta box.

If three of those five make the top three, I'll be mad I didn't place my bet. If four of those five make the top four, I'll be really mad.

Interesting insight into the mind of JHcurl. He knows dang well that Orb is the most talented horse in the field. He knows dang well that Orb likes the slop. Yet he picks Revolutionary to win. JH can't pick the favorite...too easy...not enough payout.

Ben Tucker
Tractor jockey...hates the slop this year

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Old Post 06-07-13 07:49AM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2171

Dang-gum-it, CurlNY...don't you know that there is a format discussion going on? Dear God, man...FORMAT! We have no time for this silliness.

Some might remember Freedom Child from a bizarre Wood Memorial. He was the colt that got refunded his entry because the starter opened the gate before the horse was set. The gate opened and the assistant starter was still holding on to Freedom Child. Freedom Child, being trained to take off once the gate opens, dragged the man halfway up the track. Wild. Horrid start cost him all chance of winning in a good field.

Ben Tucker
Waiting for my son to finish tilling the field so I can plant some more potatoes

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Old Post 06-07-13 08:01AM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1305

After further review, throwing Orb out. Horses that run all three Triple Crown races don't hit the board in the Belmont.

Here are four horses to use - Freedom Child(2), Overanalyze(3), Revolutionary(9) and Palace Malice(12).

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JH
still a Phils fan

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Old Post 06-07-13 01:18PM
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curlny
Hitting Paint

Registered: Dec 2005
Location:
Posts: 178

I was reading that Freedom Child looked great in a sloppy Peter Pan, but having received the kiss of death twice above, I just hope he doesn't get lost.
Orb, Revolutionary,and Golden Soul all finished strong in a moist Derby, but I think we see history on Saturday...I will go Unlimited Budget in combo with those 3.

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JL

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Old Post 06-07-13 03:11PM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2171

History? (he's talking about a filly winning) Does NY forget the fantastic Belmont when RagsToRiches nipped Curlin by a head? Wasn't that long ago. 2008?

Rain here at home. Can't catch a break. Looks like I get to lose money tomorrow. Big chance of late scratches with the rainy New York weather, so I'll head down to the simulcast bar. If I hit the trifecta or superfecta with Orb in the mix, I'm gonna buy JH an Orb sweatshirt.

Ben Tucker

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Old Post 06-07-13 07:17PM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1305

Storm went through faster than expected. Sun shine will dry out Big Sandy by race time for a fast track. Freedom Child got dropped from my list so that is probably the winner.

Orb might finish 4th but no super for me. A couple of exactors and trifectors keying Overanalyze and Revolutionary.

JH

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Old Post 06-08-13 09:04AM
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Willy
Drawmaster

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Brooklyn Handicap

If you didn't see the Brooklyn you missed something special, the 10 year old Calidoscopio mounted the greatest rally in racing history. At 8-1 it was a thing of beauty ( much like Tucks curling delivery) Yes I had the winner, he won the breeders cup marathon, then finishes 5th first time out this year after cutting his own foot on the way to the gate. Morning line of 5-2 they let him go off at 8-1. How do you avoid mud in your face? Make sure your far enough behind. Point is this was a Mile and a half race, the track is favorable for come from behinders even with projected Mud today. Look for a big price to come out of the clouds to win.

Oh you want the winner? Ok take Da number 5 ( Orb ) He's the best horse regardless of track condition, and Rosario is a cocky womanizer, who doesn't respect that? Look for 9 Revolutionary to come flying late, and don't write off Freedom Child (2) likes the mud and could wire them. Box the 2-5-9 and don't forget to play your Birthday.

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Old Post 06-08-13 09:38AM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1305

Tuck has been talkin' Palace Malice for the whole triple crown. I hope he bet him today. I did and made money. If he did not bet his horse that he has been touting for months, he is "dead" to me. He is now banned for at least 2 years of talking horses assuming he did not bet the "palace".

Dude, seriously, 1 ticket out of 9 tripled my money.

JH
You did notice that Orb did not win

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Old Post 06-08-13 07:04PM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2171

YES! I did OK on with last year's Breeder's Cup...but it has seemed like an eternity since last year's Derby...the last time I rung the bell. I will be hungover tomorrow and I will blame Palace Malice.

OK, I'm a little bit drunk tonight...but that has never stopped me before.

Tip for those that might like to casually play the horses:

Find a horse you like in any race. Doesn't matter why you like him/her...cool name...cool number...Willy's birthday (Willy was the first person I texted when I won)...it doesn't matter because it is all for fun.

Then go to the window and tell them this in exact order: Race track (if you are not actually at the track), the race number (Belmont Stakes was the 11th race on the card), win/place/show for $5 on horse number X (Palace Malice was horse number 12, it goes by the starting gate number).

That gives you a horse to cheer for and a decent chance of getting paid drinking money. If your horse finishes third, you will most likely get your $15 back (this bet is three $5 bets...$5 win/place/show). If your horse finishes second, you will usually triple your money to $45 because you collect on the show and the place bets. If your horse wins, you cash on all three bets and can afford a nice supper.

You don't need to understand it...it is just a fun and smart way for amateurs to have a decent chance. It is more simple than exacta or trifecta boxes. It is one horse with three chances of winning. Cheering for one horse is easier than cheering for three. It is a hoot.

Ben Tucker
Flying my wife to New York City for our anniversary

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Old Post 06-08-13 11:10PM
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Willy
Drawmaster

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

New York City

Deb and I just got back from city ( 25th Anniversary), I laughed for 2 hours straight at Book of Morman,to say it is very politically incorrect would be an understatement. A Preacher like Tuck might find it a bit sacrilegious, hey it was written by Seth Macfarlane what do you expect. Also the High-line is free and is a wonderful walk. Take your girl to Once, she'll cry and you just might too.... Enjoy!

Of course I had the trifecta didn't everybody, problem is I still lost money......

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Old Post 06-09-13 08:52AM
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dinorock2005
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Mar 2005
Location: Saskatchewan. CLAC is NOT a union.
Posts: 1393

I try to stay out of your threads. Just one point, and sorry if I come on like a know it all p@#ck. Book of Mormon. Trey Parker and Matt Stone. (South Park.) Thanks for the entertainment guys.

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RUN Steve RUN! HIDE Steve HIDE! Prorogue!! Prorogue!!

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Old Post 06-09-13 09:46AM
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Willy
Drawmaster

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Thanks dude

Point of Order taken and Duly noted.. I guess I'll change my story, I laughed for 2 hours and 15 minutes straight......

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We'll see you on the Ice! Willy

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Old Post 06-09-13 10:15AM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2171

Dang right, Dino...you are out of here. Created from the same strange and wonderful minds that gave us "Blame Canada", the most insightful song of our generation along with John Lennon's "Imagine".

Back to Canada with you, Dino. I finally got one prediction right, so I get to be the resident Know It All until I get a prediction wrong...should take about three days.

Connected to the US Curling scene, I know that both Willy and JHcurl have recently taken their lovely wives to The Book Of Mormon...and that all were thrilled. I seem to recall that Sally (current president of the GNCC) found some sneaky way to get good tickets at a normal price. JH?

Back to format debates and horse racing soon...just relaxing in the glow of a rare win. Got points for the flights and winning for the motel and Broadway tickets.

Willy, what is the name of the hotel you recommend? Algonquin or Iriquois? I forget. Willy, don't let me down.

Ben Tucker
Got one right, but even a blind chicken occasionally gets a kernel of corn if she keeps pecking away

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Old Post 06-09-13 01:15PM
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Willy
Drawmaster

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 592

Intercontinental Hotel

Deb and I stayed at intercontinental this time great location, great lounge on 1st floor, great gym on 3rd floor. Nice views we were on 35th floor, sounds of New York galore. Only problem might not be in a farmers price range, but your not just any farmer. I always say if it won't change your lifestyle its not to expensive. Enjoy! Walk the high line its taxpayer money......

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Old Post 06-09-13 02:19PM
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dinorock2005
Super Rockchucker

Registered: Mar 2005
Location: Saskatchewan. CLAC is NOT a union.
Posts: 1393

Darn it Tuck, I WAS leaving. You didn't have to turn the dogs on me. And then the border patrol who threw me in one of your finer places not The Intercontinental for the weekend, before escorting my sorry butt north. I roomed with a 400 lb meth head who kept making goo goo eyes at me. And a hippy who wanted to sell me weed. I could sure use the weed after that lost weekend. Oh, well, chalk it up to experience!

Hope the slop ends for all you dirt farmers and horse experts.

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RUN Steve RUN! HIDE Steve HIDE! Prorogue!! Prorogue!!

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Old Post 06-11-13 08:29PM
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