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03-29-17 12:59AM
Three is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Three Click here to Send Three a Private Message Find more posts by Three Add Three to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
Three
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Registered: Feb 2015
Location: Canada
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quote:
Originally posted by UnattachedFC


I think that she still has an outside shot.

If Middaugh makes the finals at Perth and Fleury doesn't qualify in her last two tournaments (Players' and Perth) AND Scheidegger passes Sweeting for 1-year, Middaugh would get that direct spot. Muirhead got 44 points for her win at Perth last year. I expect that winner will get something similar. She needs 29.5567 to pass Fleury considering that we have to take out Middaugh's 8th best result of this season.

Now, we have to see how many points will be available for that tournament, but she only needs the tournament to have a SFM higher than 4.2223. For a finals apperance to be good enough, it must be higher than 5.739. Just to give a comparison to last year, it was a 6.3695. I don't expect it to be lower this year for a finals apperance to not be good enough. I think it's possible that semis gets her something, but the tournament would need to be higher than 6,9545 and I doubt that, it would go that high.

Fleury wouldn't improve her 8th best score if she doesn't qualify in both of her events.

Scheidegger needs in the 1 year to pass Sweeting in that. She's technically 7 points back, but she only needs to tie whatever Sweeting does in points if they both make the playoffs, because Sweeting has to deduct her 11 points from the Canada Cup from her top results.

So you're telling me there's a chance



Great analysis UnattachedFC. SFM came in at 6.75ish so a finals appearance by Middaugh makes the Player's that much more interesting.

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03-29-17 01:05AM
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Three
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Just noticed that Carey is also in Perth....the plot thickens.

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03-29-17 04:03AM
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On The Nose
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quote:
Originally posted by decade
Who has the best bet to take Homans's Brier spot now that she has a guaranteed medal? Flaxey? All the wannabe's are running to Perth next weekend to get some points, Really Middaugh as our olympic rep? Some of these ladies need a reality check,

Homan's Brier spot?
If they don't allow men to play in the Scotties, as well, allowing women to play in the Brier is unfair!

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03-29-17 04:28AM
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Stoner
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Is no one or barely anyone seriously putting Carey, even though she's won a Scotties and was at the Worlds and is ranked #8 in the world, like are you joking.

Anyhow the top 8 right now would probably be Homan and Jones of course, Sweeting, Flaxey, Carey, Rocque, Einarson and Fleury.

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03-29-17 12:26PM
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UnattachedFC
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quote:
Originally posted by Stoner
Is no one or barely anyone seriously putting Carey, even though she's won a Scotties and was at the Worlds and is ranked #8 in the world, like are you joking.

Anyhow the top 8 right now would probably be Homan and Jones of course, Sweeting, Flaxey, Carey, Rocque, Einarson and Fleury.



I think we're talking about the 5 teams that will get their Trials berth in early May. With the Champions' Cup not counting for Trials, Rocque and Einarson have to go through Summerside unless many teams forfeit their spot. It's not about who has the best shot at winning the Trials. It's about who has the best shot of getting the call early and not having to have a great week in Summerside.

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03-29-17 04:44PM
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Stoner
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quote:
Originally posted by UnattachedFC


I think we're talking about the 5 teams that will get their Trials berth in early May. With the Champions' Cup not counting for Trials, Rocque and Einarson have to go through Summerside unless many teams forfeit their spot. It's not about who has the best shot at winning the Trials. It's about who has the best shot of getting the call early and not having to have a great week in Summerside.



I'm not talking about winning the trials, I'm talking about getting into them.

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03-29-17 05:10PM
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Three
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quote:
Originally posted by Stoner


I'm not talking about winning the trials, I'm talking about getting into them.



Hey Stoner, if you read my last update of the standings you can see how Carey could lose her theoretical invite to Ottawa. Worst case they get a spot to Summerside obviously but depending on what happens in Perth and in the Player's a lot could change for Team Carey. They had a bad year this season and can only get into Ottawa via the two year points slot which they currently occupy.

Last edited by Three on 03-29-17 at 05:15PM

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03-29-17 05:13PM
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Stoner
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quote:
Originally posted by Three


Hey Stoner, if you read my last update of the standings you can see how Carey could lose her theoretical invite to Ottawa. Worst case the get a spot to Summerside obviously but depending on what happens in Perth and in the Player's a lot could change for Team Carey.



Oh I know Carey has to earn their way in now because they did not medal at worlds, at least lost the certain berth.

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03-29-17 05:18PM
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decade
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quote:
Originally posted by On The Nose

Homan's Brier spot?
If they don't allow men to play in the Scotties, as well, allowing women to play in the Brier is unfair!


Freudian slip or too much vino.

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03-29-17 05:22PM
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Stoner
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Carey has not had that good of a year, even though they are still rated highly, the yearly rating has them a bit lower, so it would not surprise if they didn't even get into trials, teams Englot has a better chance right now. McCarville did alright at the Scotties, but it was a pretty weak field, they have not been so good on the tour. Middaugh and Harrison have been pretty good on tour.

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03-29-17 06:21PM
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Manitoba Legend
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quote:
Originally posted by Stoner
Carey has not had that good of a year, even though they are still rated highly, the yearly rating has them a bit lower, so it would not surprise if they didn't even get into trials, teams Englot has a better chance right now. McCarville did alright at the Scotties, but it was a pretty weak field, they have not been so good on the tour. Middaugh and Harrison have been pretty good on tour.


McCarville is a seasoned Canadian skip who tends to win far more than she loses. Her restricted tour habits hinder her opportunities for CTRS points - no fault of her own, she's a teacher in a non-metropolitan area. But if she somehow induce more sponsorship and take a sabbatical there's no doubt she'd increase her points total and sharpen up her overall team game.

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03-29-17 11:14PM
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curlerbroad
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A few days late and the WWCC thread is closed but our esteemed Prime Minister finally congratulated Team Homan on their win, 24h after ex-PM Stephen Harper

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03-30-17 01:24PM
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nelski
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I see there are 5 Canadian teams in the Perth Ladies International, including Carey, Flaxey, Fleury, Tippin and Middaugh. I wonder if a strong performance at this event will help any teams looking to attend the Roar or the Road-To? Thoughts?

The streaming for this event has no audio and the scores are about an hour behind the video. It would be good to see our Canadian teams do well. There are some teams from other countries also probably looking for Olympic berths from their homelands. Very strong field.

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03-30-17 03:45PM
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UnattachedFC
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quote:
Originally posted by nelski
I see there are 5 Canadian teams in the Perth Ladies International, including Carey, Flaxey, Fleury, Tippin and Middaugh. I wonder if a strong performance at this event will help any teams looking to attend the Roar or the Road-To? Thoughts?



For two of the 5, they have their spot guaranteed in the Trials or Pre-Trials.
Flaxey has her spot pretty much booked for the Trials.
Tippin has her spot booked for the Pre-Trials.

Now for the other 3
Carey and Middaugh can help their cause if they make the Final of the tournament, because they would surpass Fleury in the CTRS if Fleury doesn't qualify. Fleury has the benefit of having the Players' as an event where she can get points still. We also know that Carey can get the 2-year if Sweeting finishes above Scheidegger in the 1-year, but that won't be resolved until after players'.

Also, interesting things. Mary-Anne Arsenault is playing at third for team Carey. Carly Howard is playing at second for team Middaugh. Andrea Crawford is playing at 3rd for Fleury with Gates and Walsh at the front end. Tirinzoni is apparently playing with 3. She did that in Bern and made the final.

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03-30-17 06:29PM
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maybo
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Wins on day one in Perth for all Canadian teams except Chelsea Carey. Which of course, is the team I want most to succeed...

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03-30-17 06:31PM
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Stoner
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quote:
Originally posted by maybo
Wins on day one in Perth for all Canadian teams except Chelsea Carey. Which of course, is the team I want most to succeed...


Yeah, Carey lost, not been playing well, not looking good for them.

Last edited by Stoner on 03-30-17 at 06:50PM

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04-01-17 06:41AM
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nickelcity
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Registered: Jan 2014
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Notes - After Draw 8:

1) Middaugh and Flaxey guaranteed playoff spots at 4-0 with 1 game remaining for each.

2) Julie Tippin at 2-2 needs to win her last game to hope for a tiebreaker scenario (I think H2H and cumulative draw totals serve as tiebreakers here, I don't think actual tiebreaking games are played). If that is the case, she needs a loss by Hazel Smith and a loss from one of Tirinzoni or Wrana to have a chance at qualifying (Top 2 in each pool advance).

3) If the prior tiebreaking scenario is correct, I believe Fleury (3-1) has also qualified after their massive 7-3 win over Chelsea Carey. Since she has beaten both Carey and Gisler, both with 2 losses, she should automatically finish 2nd in her pool behind Fujisawa, regardless of what happens in their final games in Draw 10.

4) If that is correct, it means Carey (2-2) is out of the playoffs and in serious danger of losing her Olympic Trials berth should Fleury run deep in this event and make the playoffs at the Players'. She needs about 70 points combined from both events (considering we must remove about 15 points for her 8th WCT points event) to pass Carey and a win here would go a long way in helping her secure a berth in the Trials. This is massive for Fleury as well to try to remain above Middaugh in the 1-year total. The final berth to the Roar may very well depend on the Sweeting/Scheidegger situation so the Player's will definitely be exciting to watch.

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04-01-17 06:50AM
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maybo
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2014
Location: Stouffville ON
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quote:
Originally posted by UnattachedFC

Now for the other 3
Carey and Middaugh can help their cause if they make the Final of the tournament, because they would surpass Fleury in the CTRS if Fleury doesn't qualify. Fleury has the benefit of having the Players' as an event where she can get points still.



Middaugh is sailing along at 4-and-0. Fleury beat Carey this morning to move to 3-and-1. Chelsea is at 2-and-2 and I don't see any way she advances from her group.

Sorry, Nickelcity, I didn't see your update until after I posted this. Thanks for the added info!!

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Last edited by maybo on 04-01-17 at 07:05AM

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04-01-17 09:19PM
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maybo
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

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In Perth, Carey's rink was the only one of the five Canadian teams to miss the playoffs. Both Middaugh and Fleury lost in the quarterfinals.

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04-01-17 11:37PM
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Westy
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It should be noted that Fleury and Middaugh lost to the other two Canadian teams, Flaxey and Tippin. These two teams meet in the semis tomorrow guaranteeing one Ontario team in the final.

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04-02-17 12:24AM
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maybo
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Mar 2014
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quote:
Originally posted by Westy
It should be noted that Fleury and Middaugh lost to the other two Canadian teams, Flaxey and Tippin. These two teams meet in the semis tomorrow guaranteeing one Ontario team in the final.


Quite right. I should have mentioned that. Overall, a pretty strong showing by the Canadian women...

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04-02-17 12:34PM
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curlerbroad
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With Team Flaxey winning Perth...that would confirm their trials spot. They can go to the Players without that pressure of needing points.

Congratulations ladies!

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04-02-17 01:26PM
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Three
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Flaxey already had a spot clinched that there was no way she could lose. The real winner was Carey as neither Fleury nor Middaugh made up any significant ground.

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04-06-17 11:43PM
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The most ferocious field battling every four years. Amazing

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04-09-17 09:24PM
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UnattachedFC
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Karla Thompson will play in the European Masters. So, she could take a spot in the pre-trials if she does well there. I also noticed that they've added Shannon Aleksic at second. From my calculations, they were the first team out of the Pre-Trials. So, they could win a spot with a good showing there.

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