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03-19-15 10:41AM |
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Shotrock1
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2012
Location:
Posts: 23 |
+1
I certainly would not mind a 3-8 finish as much were more time and money spent building for the future and leveraging the US' main asset: the number of potential athletes.
You wanted a quick fix and you got it ... except things didn't get fixed!
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03-19-15 11:31AM |
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ChiefIceMinion
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Nov 2012
Location: In the crawlspace
Posts: 83 |
quote: Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
In short, the failure here is simple....a 3-8 record was preordained the moment we abandoned our National Champions and sent the B team on the strength of a pair of bonspiels in November.
This last sentence is where rants against the HPP come dangerously close (or cross the line) into becoming attacks against the athletes themselves. To state that a 3-8 record was preordained is as disparaging of the curlers as much as it is of the program, imho.
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03-19-15 11:35AM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
quote: Originally posted by Shotrock1
+1
I certainly would not mind a 3-8 finish as much were more time and money spent building for the future and leveraging the US' main asset: the number of potential athletes.
You wanted a quick fix and you got it ... except things didn't get fixed!
Agreed. By opening the application process and building teams from a collection of all athletes, it makes it possible to build for the future. Leverage the best young athletes, giving them the tools to go out and travel and play the best teams will lead to greater successes.
For the women's program, think of it as one step backwards to take two steps forward. The old guard are probably still better players, but as we've seen the last while, they're not good enough to medal at the World level anymore.
If you are happy with 5th place, then stick to the old ways. If you want to see teams who can compete with the best teams in the World, it's going to take a couple years of lesser results as these teams gain the experience at the World level.
To be honest, I wasn't expecting much out of the women's program this year as they were quite inexperienced but was very impressed by their play on Tour. Both Aileen Sormunen and Nina Roth posted strong results in elite curling fields this season on Tour.
The Worlds are another step forward for this team, getting there the first time as a young team will only improve their chances going forward.
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03-19-15 11:36AM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
that last lineup change the US used was just..it made no sense. took aileen out of the lineup completely and put alexandra carlsson at skip.
what exactly where they even hoping to accomplish there
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03-19-15 12:07PM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
quote: Originally posted by misty1
that last lineup change the US used was just..it made no sense. took aileen out of the lineup completely and put alexandra carlsson at skip.
what exactly where they even hoping to accomplish there
That certainly doesn't make sense considering Alex Carlson is not even in Japan.
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03-19-15 12:16PM |
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murphyj87
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2007
Location: Dartmouth, NS
Posts: 207 |
quote: Originally posted by misty1
. took aileen out of the lineup completely and put alexandra carlsson at skip.
They were expecting to do what TSN did with Al Cameron doing play by play, replacing someone who was sick.
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03-19-15 12:52PM |
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fanofcurling
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 81 |
Now that the HP Program component of the World Championships is complete, let's reflect backwards:
1. The last game of RR play is against a team that has not won a game yet. So the decision was to destroy any confidence Aileen might have left from this World Championship and bench her. (maybe she was still sick...) And we lost. Why? Because this combination of players has NO chemistry or experience together.
2. After having been benched for 4 or 5 games Vicki comes back into the lineup for the last game and shoots 90+ percent. Good for you Vicki! Why was she benched?
3. Monica, a curler that has not thrown skip rocks competitively since 2007 when she was in Juniors is asked to skip Team USA at Worlds... (she did great, all things considered.)
4. Tara, former member of Team Spatola, has the best shooting percentage on the team. And the most consistent play. - Don't forget, she started the season at Vice (throwing 3rd stones). BUT, if they really knew Tara, they would have known that she had played that position in previous seasons and it didn't really go that well for her at that position. She's a natural second. What were they thinking??? Well... after a few events she was moved to second. Lost time for the team.
5. Becca, the alternate, plays a half dozen games. Oh! to give the valuable "experience". Not to mention the destruction of team confidence that is created by these substitutions.
Reflecting further backwards...
HPP sent a team to Worlds that qualified for the National playoffs, but failed to win a game in the playoffs.
And why did the HPP send them? Because of their performance in November of 2014.
At Nationals the HPP A Team (Team Roth) fails to make the playoffs.
Reflecting further backwards...
The summer before the season started the HPP staff have a "tryout" (actually comical). And as a result of that tryout, the HPP staff, in their divine wisdom, split up the Reigning National Champions, because the HPP knows a better lineup.
It was my understanding that the HPP staff only wanted athletes on the teams that had played skip or vice. (this is second hand information) (Oh, the main coach spent her entire curling career as a front end player.)
Further back in time.
Team Spatola/Roth did not represent that USA at Worlds because of the same reason Brown didn't. Pottinger had a good event in October/November and that was enough points to earn the World Berth.
Misty, the HPP is not two years old. The OOM component of the HPP is two years old, but the HPP itself is 4 to 5 years old.
Gerry, give the program a chance? They've had 4 to 5 years to get it right. But things are getting worse. Between 2000 and 2010, the USA had a dozen world medals (including juniors, mens, and womens). Since 2010 we have no medals to show for this program.
My description of the HPP was ONLY the last 12 months AND only the adult Women's component. There's a lot more that could be said about all the others (Juniors, adult men).
If anyone wants this program to continue, then fine. But let's have performance evaluations of the staff. Let's truly make them accountable. And return our National Championship to a true National Championship leading to Worlds.
Anyone thinking that these comments or ones similar to them are somehow a criticism of the athletes.... sorry I can't help you.
And for the record, if you are going to be in sports, you should expect criticism. It goes with the territory.
Let's return curling to the "American" way. That doesn't mean the "old" way, but a system that rewards excellence. Not a system that tries to "create" excellence.
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03-19-15 01:22PM |
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IMWright
Swing Artist
Registered: Dec 2014
Location:
Posts: 206 |
I did a quick analysis of the previous women's finishing results...
2003 1
2004 4
2005 2
2006 2
2007 4
2008 6
2009 9
2010 5
2011 6
2012 5
2013 4
2014 6
2015 10
Those are the places they have finished since 2003. Now just quickly looking at the data, it looks obvious like 2015 looks VERY different (2009 does too). The average finish is about a 5th place finish with a 95% confidence interval between about 3-7th place. US Women got 10th place this year....
So, if this was a process in a more structured environment, you dig a little deeper. Now, I made a control chart of this data and it does not show this year (2015) as being statistically significantly odd (Think 95% confidence, 3 standard deviations, etc). 10th place does end up being within the upper control limit. However, it's BARELY in the limit. Once again, if I was in charge of this process and a statistician and see something that is ALMOST out of the range, I would begin to think there is some special cause variation to this year compared to other years. And to me, this is the first full year this whole HPP "we select the teams on our own whim" process has taken place. In ANY other organization, one would look at this data and immediately start to evaluate this.
I also find it interesting that the goal of the whole OOM point system was to prevent a team from becoming "hot" just at nationals and then going on to worlds and flopping. This is what seems to have happened this year; a team happened to get poitns early in the season, beame "hot enough" at nationals to get enough OOM points, and now flop at worlds.
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03-19-15 02:08PM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
quote: Originally posted by IMWright
I did a quick analysis of the previous women's finishing results...
2003 1
2004 4
2005 2
2006 2
2007 4
2008 6
2009 9
2010 5
2011 6
2012 5
2013 4
2014 6
2015 10
Those are the places they have finished since 2003. Now just quickly looking at the data, it looks obvious like 2015 looks VERY different (2009 does too). The average finish is about a 5th place finish with a 95% confidence interval between about 3-7th place. US Women got 10th place this year....
So, if this was a process in a more structured environment, you dig a little deeper. Now, I made a control chart of this data and it does not show this year (2015) as being statistically significantly odd (Think 95% confidence, 3 standard deviations, etc). 10th place does end up being within the upper control limit. However, it's BARELY in the limit. Once again, if I was in charge of this process and a statistician and see something that is ALMOST out of the range, I would begin to think there is some special cause variation to this year compared to other years. And to me, this is the first full year this whole HPP "we select the teams on our own whim" process has taken place. In ANY other organization, one would look at this data and immediately start to evaluate this.
I also find it interesting that the goal of the whole OOM point system was to prevent a team from becoming "hot" just at nationals and then going on to worlds and flopping. This is what seems to have happened this year; a team happened to get poitns early in the season, beame "hot enough" at nationals to get enough OOM points, and now flop at worlds.
If your goal was to finish 5th every year, sure you've got a point. But you can also look at that data and say the last 7 years show a pretty consistent pattern at missing the medals.
Do we keep going to the well with the same players or do we build a program that can consistently finish in the medals.
Remember, sometimes it takes one step back to make two steps forward and it's part of program development. As some point the USA was going to have to send a rookie team to Worlds and these are the kind of things that happen.
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03-19-15 02:36PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by murphyj87
They were expecting to do what TSN did with Al Cameron doing play by play, replacing someone who was sick.
well i didnt know aileen was sick so there you go
Last edited by misty1 on 03-19-15 at 02:39PM
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03-19-15 02:38PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
That certainly doesn't make sense considering Alex Carlson is not even in Japan.
yeah, thats my bad. for some reason i had carlsson mixed up with becca hamilton
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03-19-15 02:44PM |
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rbi
Hitting Paint
Registered: May 2014
Location:
Posts: 143 |
Wasn't Erika Brown's team composed of newer, younger curlers this year? (other than Erika herself)
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03-19-15 02:45PM |
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brund
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2014
Location:
Posts: 17 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
If your goal was to finish 5th every year, sure you've got a point. But you can also look at that data and say the last 7 years show a pretty consistent pattern at missing the medals.
Do we keep going to the well with the same players or do we build a program that can consistently finish in the medals.
Remember, sometimes it takes one step back to make two steps forward and it's part of program development. As some point the USA was going to have to send a rookie team to Worlds and these are the kind of things that happen.
Our goal is to send the best team and have them do the best they can do every year! If the coaching/HP is doing such a good job they would get the teams ready before worlds, Not use the worlds like some training event. That is bs , than you tell us you will be better for it so its all OK more bs Truth is that team may or may not ever go back to the worlds you never know.
Last edited by brund on 03-19-15 at 10:55PM
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03-19-15 02:45PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
If your goal was to finish 5th every year, sure you've got a point. But you can also look at that data and say the last 7 years show a pretty consistent pattern at missing the medals.
Do we keep going to the well with the same players or do we build a program that can consistently finish in the medals.
Remember, sometimes it takes one step back to make two steps forward and it's part of program development. As some point the USA was going to have to send a rookie team to Worlds and these are the kind of things that happen.
your right, at some point they would have had to send a rookie team to worlds and they would have last year if they let the champion go.
Last edited by misty1 on 03-19-15 at 02:49PM
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03-19-15 02:57PM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
quote: Originally posted by fanofcurling
[B]Now that the HP Program component of the World Championships is complete, let's reflect backwards:
1. The last game of RR play is against a team that has not won a game yet. So the decision was to destroy any confidence Aileen might have left from this World Championship and bench her. (maybe she was still sick...) And we lost. Why? Because this combination of players has NO chemistry or experience together.
2. After having been benched for 4 or 5 games Vicki comes back into the lineup for the last game and shoots 90+ percent. Good for you Vicki! Why was she benched?
3. Monica, a curler that has not thrown skip rocks competitively since 2007 when she was in Juniors is asked to skip Team USA at Worlds... (she did great, all things considered.)
4. Tara, former member of Team Spatola, has the best shooting percentage on the team. And the most consistent play. - Don't forget, she started the season at Vice (throwing 3rd stones). BUT, if they really knew Tara, they would have known that she had played that position in previous seasons and it didn't really go that well for her at that position. She's a natural second. What were they thinking??? Well... after a few events she was moved to second. Lost time for the team.
5. Becca, the alternate, plays a half dozen games. Oh! to give the valuable "experience". Not to mention the destruction of team confidence that is created by these substitutions.
Even forgetting the rest of this post, I doubt that I have ever seen a better description of Over-coaching. It should be about the players, not the coaches and admin team.
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03-19-15 05:26PM |
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Grat
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2014
Location:
Posts: 107 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
As some point the USA was going to have to send a rookie team to Worlds and these are the kind of things that happen.
And here's where the public relations problem comes in. Last year the story was how this great selection process keeps us from sending a team without enough experience to Worlds. This year we need this process in place so we can send a team to Worlds to get experience.
The irony is that last year was the better year to send a team to get the experience of Worlds.
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03-19-15 05:36PM |
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IMWright
Swing Artist
Registered: Dec 2014
Location:
Posts: 206 |
quote: Originally posted by Grat
And here's where the public relations problem comes in. Last year the story was how this great selection process keeps us from sending a team without enough experience to Worlds. This year we need this process in place so we can send a team to Worlds to get experience.
The irony is that last year was the better year to send a team to get the experience of Worlds.
Great point. And that's the PR problem; changing stories on a whim to suit the current situation...
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03-19-15 05:51PM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
quote: Originally posted by Grat
And here's where the public relations problem comes in. Last year the story was how this great selection process keeps us from sending a team without enough experience to Worlds. This year we need this process in place so we can send a team to Worlds to get experience.
The irony is that last year was the better year to send a team to get the experience of Worlds.
No public relations problem. Last year the veteran team had the best season and got to go. This year, the young team had the best year and got to go to Worlds.
Not sure where the issue is. Sormunen team earned it over the long term, just like Pottinger did last season. The way to earn your berth into the Worlds is clear.
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03-19-15 06:10PM |
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Grat
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2014
Location:
Posts: 107 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
No public relations problem. Last year the veteran team had the best season and got to go. This year, the young team had the best year and got to go to Worlds.
Not sure where the issue is. Sormunen team earned it over the long term, just like Pottinger did last season. The way to earn your berth into the Worlds is clear.
It is a problem, because a majority, or vocal minority, disagree with the criteria. Then opposite examples are given to convince people it's the right path.
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03-19-15 06:12PM |
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brund
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2014
Location:
Posts: 17 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
The way to earn your berth into the Worlds is clear. [/B]
You think sending your 3rd place team is what you call [earned] wow I am sorry that is, nor will ever be clear to most of us.
Last edited by brund on 03-19-15 at 06:27PM
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03-19-15 06:33PM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
quote: Originally posted by Gerry
Not sure where the issue is. Sormunen team earned it over the long term, just like Pottinger did last season. The way to earn your berth into the Worlds is clear.
Playing well in a bonspiel early in the season is not exactly earning it "over the long term."
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03-19-15 06:49PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
Posts: 6002 |
The only clear thing here is that the US system of determining a world rep sucks.
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03-19-15 07:18PM |
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B Anderson
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2012
Location:
Posts: 39 |
quote: Originally posted by Grat
It is a problem, because a majority, or vocal minority, disagree with the criteria. Then opposite examples are given to convince people it's the right path.
I'd go with "handful of curlingzone posters who have beaten the horse beyond death" over "vocal minority".
-BA
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03-19-15 07:33PM |
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dbsdbs
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2013
Location:
Posts: 812 |
quote: Originally posted by B Anderson
I'd go with "handful of curlingzone posters who have beaten the horse beyond death" over "vocal minority".
-BA
You are only kidding yourself if you think there is only a handful of posters not happy with the system. Try bringing the question up with competitive curlers at your club and see what they say.
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03-19-15 07:51PM |
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brund
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2014
Location:
Posts: 17 |
I have talked to over 100 curlers in the Midwest about this. 95% hate what is going on the 5% were a part of or knew someone in hp so tell me who the minority is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! get a clue
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