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03-11-17 10:15PM
JB42 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for JB42 Click here to Send JB42 a Private Message Find more posts by JB42 Add JB42 to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
JB42
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 589

Curling with math questions.....

Alright then. First things first. I was hoping for team McEwen. Teams Koe, Martin and Howard have got their fair share. That said.

I was screaming at the TV in the eight end. "Take your 1! What's wrong with you? Up 3 with two ends left the game is over.

McEwen instead decided to play the double for three. So.....

What are the differences percentage wise between.....

Three up with two left; and two up with two left.

Also. What are the differences between three up with two left and four or five up with two left.

Next.

If he peels the goddamn guard in ll and gives Koe the freeze the worst he is going to have is a wide open hit. Alternately if instead he draws he has to leave the draw wide open so at worst he has a short run back.

BJ was right in 8. Scoring was huge that end. Or at least that is my belief, I ask the curl with math guys to see if the stats bear me out.

I didn't really catch what the discussion was in 11, but for me ripping it was the right call all day. Make the other guy make the perfect shot. Especially if even if he makes it all that means is that you go to another extra and you still have the hammer.

Last edited by JB42 on 03-11-17 at 10:20PM

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03-12-17 01:39AM
milobloom is offline Click Here to See the Profile for milobloom Click here to Send milobloom a Private Message Find more posts by milobloom Add milobloom to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
milobloom
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 820

As I said in other thread, 94% (3 up without hammer) to 84% (1 up with hammer) Win Expectancy with the steal in 8. Not sure the shot he called was even there. Didn't appear he could get to nose (with that weight) and the angle double would jam and need to spin both rocks out for two.

Also makes me wonder why the end developed the way it did. They neglected the long guard thinking it wasn't relevant, but it came into play.

EDIT..just watched again the shot was there for 2. Not automatic but you can argue against the draw.

Last edited by milobloom on 03-12-17 at 01:52AM

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03-12-17 07:45AM
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JB42
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Nov 2012
Location: Toronto
Posts: 589

I don't get the argument against the draw from the following perspective.

A) Scoring one gets you a 93% chance for the win.

B) The draw is the easier shot.

To my mind What is required at this point is a 'multiplier' of sorts. I.e. The percentage chance of the win times the percentage chance of the shot. And this is where we move from empiricism to the art of the game.

So let's say A) up 5 gives you a .999 chance of the win versus the .93 chance when scoring one. B) Multiply this by the percentage chance of making the shot. I.e. The double being lower percentage than the draw. And here for good or ill the art comes into it.

I would say the draw is a shot that they would make 85% of the time, whereas that double was about a 70% chance.

This translates to .93 x .85 = 80% for the draw

Whereas up five gives .999 x .70 = 70% for the double

Mike 'felt' that he was going to make it. BJ felt "scoring here is huge". Mike was carried away with his sense of certainty and the rest as they say is history.

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03-12-17 10:26AM
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windy
Harvey Hacksmasher

 

Registered: Dec 2003
Location:
Posts: 17

I believe you are zeroing in on exactly the right thinking JB. The end that will haunt them most is the 8th. Milo's stats at 94% to win 3 up after 8 make sense but I would argue it's actually much higher in this circumstance. The ice conditions are very good and the Manitoba team is playing at such a high level that it is very hard to picture them giving up that lead.

The whole 8th end should be played with a complete focus on scoring one point. Essentially you are closing the game there.

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03-12-17 11:52AM
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milobloom
Drawmaster

 

Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 820

Hoping to put an article up this week (still need to write about that Scotties final), but needless to say there is an argument.

On second look, Mike missed the shot. The way they were playing it, was really only for two but at this point 2 or 3 or 4 is essentially the same result, a win (99.1% WE).

The argument is Mike's confidence in making that angle runback versus the draw, and only he has that sense of his probability of each shot. It was full four foot on a specific path, only he knows how comfortable he felt at that moment on that call. Let's say it was 90%. Straight runbacks are around 85%, in Mike's case possibly higher. As you move towards an angle versus straight back, your odds are reduced (there's a CWM article on this here
http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/201...t-of-valor.html )

Quickly, at draw 90%

WE = .9 x .94 = .846

He's ok to try the runback 100% of the time, it's roughly a wash if he misses every time.

If the draw is 95%

WE = .95 x .94 = .894

Assuming no chance at steal of 2, Mike needs to make the raise for 2 pts only 35% of the time to be equal to the draw.

If the draw is 100%, he needs to make the raise 65% of the time. Having re-watched the shot, I think Mike usually makes that raise at least 60%, if not higher, and the draw is no gimme. hence, an argument.

Last edited by milobloom on 03-12-17 at 11:54AM

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