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08-11-13 05:35PM
AlanMacNeill is offline Click Here to See the Profile for AlanMacNeill Click here to Send AlanMacNeill a Private Message Find more posts by AlanMacNeill Add AlanMacNeill to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
AlanMacNeill
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Registered: Sep 2011
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Olympic Qualifying Draw Set

So...the draw and procedures for the Olympic Qualifier are set.

8 men's teams, single round robin, top 3 playoff for the two spots....1v2 with winner in, loser of that against 3 to get in.

So...it pays to be in the top 2, to have two chances to qualify.

The US Schedule (all times Germany, GMT+1, if I am reading this right):

Dec 10 16:00 CZE
Dec 11 08:00 NZL
16:00 FRA
Dec 12 09:00 GER
19:00 JPN
Dec 13 12:00 KOR
20:00 FIN
Dec 14 20:00 Men 1 v Men 2 (winner qualifies)
Dec 15 12:30 Loser ov 1v2 v Men 3 (winner qualifies)

So...5-2 will definitely qualify for top 3, 4-3 might depending on tiebreakers....let's take a look:

I see wins against NZL, KOR, CZE, and FIN....GER will be tough, JPN I have no read on, nor FRA.

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08-11-13 09:11PM
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AK267
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hope to see a cybercast of this

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08-12-13 06:13PM
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jhcurl
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Tim, I think the WCF would be webcasting. Of course that could lead to the problem of geo-block.

Hard to judge without knowing what the teams will be, especially Germany and France. NZL and CZE are no longer automatic. I expect FIN will be a young team unless Markku decides to take one more kick at the can.

JH
the US is approaching the free spot on the bingo card (no offense to my friends)

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08-12-13 07:34PM
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SPMFromPCC
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CZE will almost certainly be Jiri Snitil. Very far from an easy mark as they beat USA, Canada, and Norway at worlds.

FIN is a toss up. Aku Kauste is an obvious choice since he got Finland back to the A Group at Europeans, and from there to Worlds. I know Markku is back to playing again, no idea if he's anywhere near his Torino Olympics form again. I doubt it.

FRA will probably be Thomas Dufour, because who else do they have? He can be hot or cold, there's never any telling. Had an awful Europeans, missing Worlds and barely missing relegation to the B Group.

GER is in a tailspin since the Kapp brothers retired. Andy Lang has been the skip by default and hasn't had good results. His team fared poorly enough at Europeans to relegate Germany to the B Group and miss Worlds entirely.

JPN will likely be Yusuke Morozumi, who didn't do well at worlds but the few wins they had were against quality teams. If the pressure gets to them they will not be a factor, I think.

KOR, I can't venture a guess on. No idea who even plays for them now.

NZL really only has one team, skipped by Peter De Boer with Sean Becker at third. They had a fantastic worlds in Switzerland, reaching a tiebreaker, but then failed to get to worlds at all the next season. Geography limits how much this team can play, so they are kind of a question mark.

The one and only team I can comfortably say will get through out of the above is Czech Republic. They've played enough together and have beaten enough good teams that I think they will do well here. I honestly have a hard time not seeing whatever USA team qualify, but it won't be a cakewalk. Whoever wins the Trials has to take each and every opponent seriously. That said, I'd be shocked if they win fewer than five of these games.

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08-12-13 10:58PM
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guido
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Registered: Feb 2011
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Re: Olympic Qualifying Draw Set

quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
So...the draw and procedures for the Olympic Qualifier are set.

8 men's teams, single round robin, top 3 playoff for the two spots....1v2 with winner in, loser of that against 3 to get in.

So...it pays to be in the top 2, to have two chances to qualify.

The US Schedule (all times Germany, GMT+1, if I am reading this right):

Dec 10 16:00 CZE
Dec 11 08:00 NZL
16:00 FRA
Dec 12 09:00 GER
19:00 JPN
Dec 13 12:00 KOR
20:00 FIN
Dec 14 20:00 Men 1 v Men 2 (winner qualifies)
Dec 15 12:30 Loser ov 1v2 v Men 3 (winner qualifies)

So...5-2 will definitely qualify for top 3, 4-3 might depending on tiebreakers....let's take a look:

I see wins against NZL, KOR, CZE, and FIN....GER will be tough, JPN I have no read on, nor FRA.

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08-12-13 11:00PM
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guido
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5-2 is not a guarantee. possibly 3 teams at 6-1

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08-13-13 09:56AM
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AlanMacNeill
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quote:
Originally posted by guido
5-2 is not a guarantee. possibly 3 teams at 6-1


True, however...

IF there are three teams at 6-1, then there are no other teams with better than a 4-3 record (because the three 6-1 teams went undefeated against the rest of the field, and 1-1 within their 3 set), so if there are 3 6-1 teams, then there is no 5-2 team.

I'm not really expecting that anyhow...I'm expecting a fairly straightforward ordering of the teams, 7-0, 6-1, 5-2, 4-3, 3-4, 2-5, 1-6, 0-7. Just because, from what I've seen, there's a pretty good strata here...there may be an upset or two, but I'm expecting "the chalk" to rule.

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08-13-13 02:00PM
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jhcurl
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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
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quote:
Originally posted by SPMFromPCC
CZE will almost certainly be Jiri Snitil. Very far from an easy mark as they beat USA, Canada, and Norway at worlds.

FIN is a toss up. Aku Kauste is an obvious choice since he got Finland back to the A Group at Europeans, and from there to Worlds. I know Markku is back to playing again, no idea if he's anywhere near his Torino Olympics form again. I doubt it.

FRA will probably be Thomas Dufour, because who else do they have? He can be hot or cold, there's never any telling. Had an awful Europeans, missing Worlds and barely missing relegation to the B Group.

GER is in a tailspin since the Kapp brothers retired. Andy Lang has been the skip by default and hasn't had good results. His team fared poorly enough at Europeans to relegate Germany to the B Group and miss Worlds entirely.

JPN will likely be Yusuke Morozumi, who didn't do well at worlds but the few wins they had were against quality teams. If the pressure gets to them they will not be a factor, I think.

KOR, I can't venture a guess on. No idea who even plays for them now.

NZL really only has one team, skipped by Peter De Boer with Sean Becker at third. They had a fantastic worlds in Switzerland, reaching a tiebreaker, but then failed to get to worlds at all the next season. Geography limits how much this team can play, so they are kind of a question mark.

The one and only team I can comfortably say will get through out of the above is Czech Republic. They've played enough together and have beaten enough good teams that I think they will do well here. I honestly have a hard time not seeing whatever USA team qualify, but it won't be a cakewalk. Whoever wins the Trials has to take each and every opponent seriously. That said, I'd be shocked if they win fewer than five of these games.



CZE will be tough, the Snitil brothers know how to play and if they get some shot making from the front end, look out.

Don't discount NZL. Their "season" is just winding up so they have had lots of time on the ice recently. With the new dedicated facility there, they could surprise anyone in this group.

France lost Angiboust (I think) so they are down at the bottom.

Finland - Markku does not need Torino form to finish at the top of this group. One of my all time favorite curlers, actually hope he does not play. Would certainly make this tougher for all.

I don't think anyone will go undefeated. Probably a clear one and two with possibly a TB for three. The big unknown factor in all of this will be the quality of the ice and rocks. Straight ice will favor everyone except the US.

JH

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08-13-13 04:03PM
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Oly M. Pics
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Registered: Mar 2013
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Posts: 123

quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill


True, however...

IF there are three teams at 6-1, then there are no other teams with better than a 4-3 record (because the three 6-1 teams went undefeated against the rest of the field, and 1-1 within their 3 set), so if there are 3 6-1 teams, then there is no 5-2 team.

I'm not really expecting that anyhow...I'm expecting a fairly straightforward ordering of the teams, 7-0, 6-1, 5-2, 4-3, 3-4, 2-5, 1-6, 0-7. Just because, from what I've seen, there's a pretty good strata here...there may be an upset or two, but I'm expecting "the chalk" to rule.




So, Guido. 5-2 is a guarantee.

Last edited by Oly M. Pics on 08-13-13 at 08:29PM

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08-14-13 08:50AM
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AlanMacNeill
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Registered: Sep 2011
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Posts: 928

quote:
Originally posted by jhcurl

I don't think anyone will go undefeated. Probably a clear one and two with possibly a TB for three. The big unknown factor in all of this will be the quality of the ice and rocks. Straight ice will favor everyone except the US.



Does the WCF have "Championship Rocks" like the USCA (and CCA, I believe) does? And if so...will they be being used for this competition?

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08-14-13 01:33PM
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misty1
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Registered: Sep 2011
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Playing the germans in germany might be an entirely different proposition all together. I agree they have been in a downward spiral since andy retired..which is shocking because because that lineup is pretty talented and herberg and lang both have skipping experience

This is how id rate them going in:

1. czezh republic
2. united states
3. france
4. new zealand
5. germany
6. japan
7. finland
8. korea

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08-15-13 03:27AM
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Gerry
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Location: London, Ontario
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Andy Lang announced his retirement prior to last year's German Championships in February.

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08-15-13 09:47AM
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misty1
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Maybe they can lure sebastian stock out of retirement and him and herberg can hook up again

For whatever reason that lineup just isnt working without andy..maybe chemistry is an issue?

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08-18-13 08:57PM
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SPMFromPCC
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So the Kapp brothers are retired....Stock is retired....now Lang is retired too?? Who the heck is left? Herberg?

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08-20-13 06:11PM
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Gerry
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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 3908

quote:
Originally posted by SPMFromPCC
So the Kapp brothers are retired....Stock is retired....now Lang is retired too?? Who the heck is left? Herberg?


Johnny Jahr who played in the Worlds in 2012, and won the 2013 German Championships is the most likely team.
http://www.worldcurl.com/oom/teams.php?teamid=61607

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