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01-15-18 12:56PM
Manitoba Legend is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Manitoba Legend Click here to Send Manitoba Legend a Private Message Find more posts by Manitoba Legend Add Manitoba Legend to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
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2018 Scott Tournament of Hearts - Penticton, BC (Official Thread)

HERE'S THE DRAW -
http://www.curling.ca/2018scotties/...Hearts-Draw.pdf

Appears the new format has teams playing only 8 games in an abbreviated round-robin. Certain teams will obviously not play certain teams in this type of format.
Jennifer Jones has a rather soft draw - she won't be confronted by Casey Scheidegger in the round-robin, nor Team Canada Englot. Her final rr match will presumably be vs. Chels Carey (don't see a path Kerri Einarson can skate by Carey anymore)

Based mostly on the Jones form chart she should be able to qualify for the next round of the event with a 6-2 record, even 5-3 might do it. I always assume Jones will throw away one game to a fawn, might lose another where she plays well - BUT THIS YEAR IS DIFFERENT. Jones is not curling anywhere near her past STOH levels. Her lack of practice is showing. Rock positioning continues to be her kryptonite - and this will continue. Without Kaitlyn she'll have to make more savers than ever before - so re-evaluating Jones gives her a preliminary record of 5-3 or 4-4 in the round-robin - - - - 5-3 might give her a lower seeding into the playoff round, 4-4 might be doubtful for a tie-breaker.

With Kaitlyn I personally would not see Jones standing up to Casey Scheidegger (the new Homan). . . . and possibly having difficulty with Kesa Van Osch, Holly Duncan, Chels Carey & Dainty Tracy Fleury.

In conclusion medalling would be a major achievement for Jenny J - although I'm sure she'd be devastated if she didn't play in the gold medal game.

Simply - she doesn't have the shots, doesn't have the 3rd and will be spending too much time over-analyzing ice and weather conditions vs. tossing rocks and racking up Ws.

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01-15-18 01:13PM
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There won't be a Kaitlyn for Jennifer, she will be overseas preparing for the Olympics.

Sigh - two pools of 8. Not really a true National championship.

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01-15-18 01:16PM
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LOL!!!
"official thread"
90% of your post is about JJ.
You fell off the bandwagon with a thump about a year ago, Then, in the last 24 hours you jumped right back on.

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01-15-18 01:47PM
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it's an interesting field. a good mix of youth and veteran experience.

here's how i rate each team :

british columbia - skipped by kesa van osch. one of the 3 young womens teams in BC that i think will help get that province back to the top. don't really spiel all that much and when they do it's on home ice. one previous appearance for kesa but first for everyone else. they are talented and kesa had a respectable 6-5 record on her first try. in a field like this they could make a push for the playoffs

alberta - obviously scheidegger is one of the favorites to win. only thing that might stop her would be nerves but given how she's performed at the trials and in that alberta final nerves don't see to factor in the match

saskatchewan - veteran sherry anderson. she's seen everything. got a young team in front of her. if she can manage them at their first scotties they could be there at the end in playoff weekend

manitoba - probably the odds on favorite for most. the thing is she hasn't been playing that well. most of, if not all her wins have been ugly. she won't have kaitlyn with her either so there are question of who she will bring on and how that will work out. even if it's not pretty though i doubt she'll miss playoffs. we just might see her back in her 2008/2009 days of having to grind out from the 3 v.s 4 game though

ontario - have no knowledge of this team at all. complete stunner out of ontario. that being said ontario isn't easy to get out of so they have to have some skill. still, it's rare to do well on your first scotties so don't expect them to be there at the end

northern ontario - dark horse for the title? why not. one of the top teams in canada i'd only rank alberta, manitoba and possibly the ctrs team ahead of her.

quebec - extremely impressive to come out of quebec knocking off larouche and belisle back to back. something no one has done before in quebec. however they are still juniors so notching a few wins will be a good showing

northwest territories - kerry galusha is not to be underestimated. had her best ever result last year and without fatigue from the qualifying tournament she could do better still. has a great young third with her in sarah koltun that should give her great support

yukon - i believe they curled with sarah at her inaugural scotties a few years ago so they could get a hand full of wins but don't expect them to contend

nunavut - do not know of this team . first time though. i would say getting a win would be a victory

prince edward island - macphee has been here so many times . she's done well before but she's usually a 3-4 win team.

new brunswick - sylvie has united with last year's champ.sylvie has never had much success here and melissa struggled last year. they will win some games but would be surprised if they made it out of their group

nova scotia - tons of experience, great last rock thrower in mary anne. in their last outing they won 5 games. would predict the same, maybe 1 more in this field

newfoundland - deveraux has gotten better every year she's been here so could get out of her group but i don't see her contending for the title

ctrs team - whoever it is will be a playoff contender and title contender. einarson and carey are both strong teams.

canada - they are a great team however they have struggled this year heavily. 3 losses at the continental cup won't help either with confidence. the pedigree on this team makes it hard to write them off however i just can't see them winning it all. depending on what group they land in they could even miss the playoffs all together

predicted final 4:

manitoba, alberta, ctrs team, northern ontario

dark horses:
saskatchewan, canada, british columbia, northwest territories

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01-15-18 02:09PM
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Pools of 8

ML. How can you be 5-3 in a pool of 8? You only play 7 games. Then the playoff crossovers from the other pool so 4 more games.

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01-15-18 02:31PM
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Re: Pools of 8

quote:
Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
ML. How can you be 5-3 in a pool of 8? You only play 7 games. Then the playoff crossovers from the other pool so 4 more games.


Good catch - based on being handed a semi-soft draw, but going into battle with a fresh 3rd and wonky accuracy I'll adjust Jones to either 5-2 or 4-3 in the round robin.

If Jones had Lawes and wasn't pocked by so many poor shots and poor shot choices this year I'd have her pegged at 6-1 or 5-2 - and an easy advance to the next round. Heck, the old Jones might ransack the preliminary round 7-0 or 6-1

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01-15-18 02:43PM
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I'll predict with so many new teams and teams that are relatively equal, 4-3 will be a schmozzle of tie breaks in the first round.

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01-15-18 03:15PM
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HOW MANY QUALIFY?

Anyone know how many teams qualify from the Pools of 8 for the next round?

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01-15-18 04:10PM
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top 4 from each pool advance to playoff round and play 4 more games from the other side, then the regular page playoff from there

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01-15-18 05:07PM
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Believe it or not curling Canada has a really dumb method or carrying over ALL the results of the prelininary games when advancing teams to the "championship pool". ie. Currently the juniors will not have games dropped against non-common opponents. So instead of all teams starting off with a record of consisting of three total wins and losses they start with a record of all their games (seven total games). Most other sports that use this type of prelinary pool format drop the games against teams that didn't advance so in the final round you are comparing apples to apples. Does anybody know if they have stopped using this insane practice?

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01-15-18 07:36PM
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ML was it really necessary to start another thread on the STOH. Perhaps the administrator will meld the 2, please!

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01-15-18 10:23PM
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The other STOH thread was one leading up to the event - discussing various provincial playdowns.

Now we're down to the 16 teams (albeit one play-in game) so this thread saves scrolling thru unnecessary history, concentrates on Penticton, its teams and their possibilities, player changes, 5ths, coaches, etc.

If admin. wants to merge it with the other one - I have no objection!

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01-16-18 08:56AM
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Shannon Birchard will play in her first scotties

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01-16-18 10:32AM
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quote:
Originally posted by guido
Shannon Birchard will play in her first scotties


Seems she's a skip of Team Birchard. Do we know what position she'll be playing??? Want to add this.
After failing to win a third provincial junior title, Birchard played in her first women's provincial championship (the Manitoba Scotties) in 2014 with Nicole Sigvaldason, Kelsey Boettcher and Megan Sigvaldason. The team finished the tournament with a 1-6 record.

Birchard returned to the Manitoba Scotties in 2016 with her 2013 junior team. There, she found more success, making the playoffs after posting a 6-1 record. In the playoffs she beat Cathy Overton-Clapham, but then lost in the semifinal to Kerri Einarson.

Her team played in the 2017 Manitoba Scotties Tournament of Hearts, again making the playoffs after winning a tiebreaker game after a 4-3 record. However, she would lose to Darcy Robertson in their only playoff game. Birchard won the Manitoba Mixed doubles title that year[3] and played in the 2017 Canadian Mixed Doubles Curling Championship with partner Jason Gunnlaugson. They went 5-2 after group play, but were eliminated in the round of 12 against Marliese Kasner and Dustin Kalthoff.

Birchard and her team began the 2017-18 curling season by winning the 2017 Colonial Square Ladies Classic, after beating defending Olympic champion Jennifer Jones in the final. She will play vice for Jones in Team Manitoba at the 2018 Scotties Tournament of Hearts, with Jones' regular vice Kaitlyn Lawes absent in preparation for the mixed doubles tournament of the 2018 Winter Olympics

Last edited by albetts on 01-16-18 at 10:38AM

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01-16-18 11:08AM
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Good choice!

Suspect JJ was backed into a corner by Curl Canada and had to pick from the Manitoba pool vs. Canadian pool. If she could pick a Canadian curler then Kendra Lilly, Val Sweeting, Krista McCarville and Lori Olson-Johns were all available.

Knew it would come down to one of Birchard or the 2 Briannes (Knapp & Meilleur). Knapp & Meilleur have very stiff and upright deliveries, no margin for error - those two focus on looking good vs. making shots. Birchard still has a bit of stiffness to her execution but less than the Briannes.
She'll deliver a consistent 70 ot 80% 3rd service to Jones - with the odd 85% outing, and likely the odd 60 to 65% one.

Her biggest challenge will be latching onto and comprehending the enormously complex system Jones team has for rock positioning, line & weight. Like Kaitlyn she'll have to withstand Jones early calls, sometimes before she's released a stone - then committing to the call until its too late.

Kaitlyn, at this STOH would easily be the best or 2nd best 3rd at the event. . . . . McTaggart is the other close to elite 3rd.

As far as 5th player - I'd be tempted to tap Birchard's 3rd, Nicole Sigvaldson as my 5th. Give Birchard a known associate/friend during the week. If Birchard bows to the pressure whats wrong with giving Sigvaldson a shot?

No Sweeting, no Homan, no Middaugh, no Kleibrink, no Larouche, no Lawton, no Carey (unless she pulls thru) - normally this would be a walk in the park for JJ.


But JJ doesn't do walks in the park. Huge tendency to make things super difficult for herself but when cornered under pressure she usually responds. ]

Hope Jen takes more charge of the house than usual - last couple years she's been going "committee" on shots - from 2nd to skip. Trying to immerse Birchard into this would be a mistake immo. She's so new to the Jones system - and while I'm sure she's strong on input it might not coincide with Jones' thinking.

She'll also have to deal with Jones over-powering orders on line calls and sweep - orders that we've seen historically are often wrong and out of sorts. FRANKLY, SHE'S IN TOUGH.

But still a heckuva opportunity, much the same as Lawes got when she was brought up to replace Overton.

Biggest problem for Jones is Jones. Missing hits by over a foot, routinely missing the stick and having sketchy draw weight is not the JJ Formula we've come to know and love. Obviously lack of practice has finally caught up with Jones.

A weaker field stabilizes her chances - but Scheidegger & Carey might be a bit too much to overcome.

And don't underestimate Ontario's Holly Duncan. She might be the big sleeper.
Steph Ladrew has been knocking on the door for years, Karen Sagle their lead is a top front ender in the land and Cheryl Kreviazuk has curling blood. Their fortunes will depend on Duncan's performances.

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01-16-18 12:14PM
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Duncan was on the verge of elimination before she roared back to win - ON went to the triple knockout.

Why the 2 pools? I think CC is cost cutting. If you don't make the playoffs you go home. No need to pay for hotels or cars for an entire week. And of course give the North a chance to play & have a trip south.

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01-16-18 05:02PM
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quote:
Originally posted by curlerbroad


Why the 2 pools? I think CC is cost cutting. If you don't make the playoffs you go home. No need to pay for hotels or cars for an entire week. And of course give the North a chance to play & have a trip south.



Simply can't fit a 15 team Round Robin into nine days. So they added a wild card to make two even pools of eight. All just so we can watch Nunavut go 0-7. Depending on feedback this may be a one year format only...

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01-16-18 05:03PM
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Re: Good choice!

quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend


Kaitlyn, at this STOH would easily be the best or 2nd best 3rd at the event. . . . . McTaggart is the other close to elite 3rd.




ML, McTaggart an elite 3rd? Not even close. Watch some of the games before you just type stuff....

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01-16-18 06:05PM
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"Obviously lack of practice has finally caught up with Jones".

WRONG AGAIN, ml.

When your heroine is not playing
in a bonspiel somewhere , she practices EVERY single day during the curling season. This has not changed for decades.

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01-16-18 06:24PM
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Re: Re: Good choice!

quote:
Originally posted by FollowingAlong


ML, McTaggart an elite 3rd? Not even close. Watch some of the games before you just type stuff....



Well you quoted me correctly. I did say she's close to elite - but certainly not elite!

She got Casey thru a very rugged Alberta Scotties - I think she's pretty darn good. No question the only truly elite 3rds in Canada are Emma & Kaitlyn in that order - Emma a bit more of a field general than KL . . . . after that - Lori Olson-Johns, Kendra Lilly, Cathy O?

I'm sure we'll see some new ones step up in Penticton!

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01-16-18 09:58PM
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Easy peasy in 9 days

quote:
Originally posted by Three


Simply can't fit a 15 team Round Robin into nine days. So they added a wild card to make two even pools of eight. All just so we can watch Nunavut go 0-7. Depending on feedback this may be a one year format only...



It's called 5 sheets and no morning draws with only 2 games. Hot shots first day and then right into the draws. The math and sheet count works.

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01-17-18 12:17AM
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A 16-team full round robin, with each team playing 15 games, is very impractical. That's a whole lot of curling, excluding playoffs - really going to tire out a team when you want them to have energy for world championships in a few short weeks.

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01-17-18 01:13AM
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15 team no need ctrs

quote:
Originally posted by doubletakeout
A 16-team full round robin, with each team playing 15 games, is very impractical. That's a whole lot of curling, excluding playoffs - really going to tire out a team when you want them to have energy for world championships in a few short weeks.


15 teams and lose the unnecessary CTRS team. 21 draws on 5 sheets that's 7 days.
Worlds are almost 8 weeks away, how much time do you need?

Last edited by IN-OFF-FOR-2 on 01-17-18 at 01:26AM

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01-17-18 10:51AM
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Re: 15 team no need ctrs

quote:
Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2


15 teams and lose the unnecessary CTRS team. 21 draws on 5 sheets that's 7 days.
Worlds are almost 8 weeks away, how much time do you need?



A 7 day draw with five sheets and 15 teams can work at three draws per day, but here are a couple of things that would have to be factored in:

- pre-event practice would have to include practice time on another sheet of ice so practice time on each sheet would have to be reduced to 12 minutes from the current 15 to keep each practice session in a one hour window

- the hotshots would have to be canned or completely finished before Saturday morning

- there would be very little time to squeeze tie-breaker games in, especially in the event of three possible tie-breaker draws

None of the above are insurmountable, but they would have to be addressed. It's not quite as simple as going, "105 games on five sheets in seven days, three draws a day - voila!"

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01-17-18 11:09AM
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Does anybody actually know exactly how much JJ practices now compared to the past? Probably not. Only she knows.

Thought at least somebody would ask how I could possibly know anything about her practice
schedule since she lives in the
Peg and Horseshoe Valley. But no. Either nobody cares, except ML, or nobody bothers to read my posts. So be it!

It is, sort, of an interesting story however. Back in 2002 the late Ray Turnbull was working for TSN. At that time he mentioned on TV that JJ was going to represent Manitoba in the Scotties and she has a work ethic that was beyond belief. For example, when she not on the road in a bonspiel, she would go to her club, the St. Vital Curling Club, every single morning and begin practice at 6:45 AM.

I never gave this a second thought until a couple years ago when I was watching the Manitoba playoffs for the Brier. Ray was the TV host and his side-kick was JJ. And out of the blue he asked her if she still maintained that rigorous practice schedule that she started back in 2000. Her answer was yes, she continues this on a daily basis and will continue to do so as long as a she's a competitive curler.

So that folks is your history lesson for the day.

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Curling Scores

W: Pyeongchang Winter Games - Women
Pyongchang, KOR
Teams | Scores | Standings | Playoffs
Draw: GOLD -- Sat, Feb 24 -- 7:05pm ET
Korea
Sweden

Final
(9)
Click Event to Show Scoreboard
W: Pyeongchang Winter Games - Women
M: Pyeongchang Winter Games - Men
M: USA U18 Mens Championship
W: Amsterdam Inn & Suites Senior Championships
M: English National Mens Curling Championship
W: USA U18 Womens Championship
W: English National Womens Curling Championship
M: New Brunswick Mixed Doubles Championship
M: Estonian Mixed Doubles National Championship
: GNCC Mixed Championship
M: Amsterdam Inn & Suites Senior Championships
M: Teulon MJCT Mens Spiel
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Sweden's Hasselborg Wins Olympic GOLD

Sweden's Hasselborg Wins Olympic GOLD

Gangneung, Republic of Korea - Sweden beat Korea by 8-3 in Sunday morning's women's gold medal final of the Olympic Winter Games PyeongChang 2018, in the Gangneung Curling Centre, to take their Member Association third Olympic title.

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