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02-14-17 04:56PM
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Manitoba Legend
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Tournament of Hearts: 2017 Predictions

Going out on a distant limb here but don't see anyone coming close to knocking off Ottawa Power Plant's Rachel Homan.

Jones is inconsequential - she doesn't fare that well vs. Rachel in recent outings; Rachel waits to pounce and JJ always gave her opportunities. Englot might be better able to defend vs. Homan, not as much crazy offense as JJ.

Kleibrink was super-hot during Alberta - can the 48 year old Alberta great maintain her fine play in St. Cath's? Guess we'll have to wait for that answer! Rotating SKIP will be fun to watch!

The Alberta squad who didn't make it to STOH would have a better chance. Val was always able to hang with Rachel for 7 or 8 ends anyways, as she played things really tight. Don't know if Shannon can do this.

I don't really see Mariah Carey being able to stave off the extreme shot-pelting she'll be subject to by RH.

Only other team that I can see giving Rachel a test is Kris McCarville - mainly because Kris is such a mature curling mind. That said, Rachel is stronger at every position than McCarville. Most even would be at skip - where Krista can handle house muddle and nuance slightly better than Raytch. Krista still no match for Homan's nuclear negative ice takeout bombs.

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02-14-17 05:04PM
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Jones mopped the floor with Homan twice at the Canada Cup, so I think she would have been the favorite if she had gotten through.

I don't see anyone beating Homan come final weekend, she may drop a game throughout the week but not when it matters most

I think this is a battle for second place, and I see McCarville losing the final (again) in two weeks time.

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02-14-17 05:08PM
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Chalk another one up.

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02-14-17 05:56PM
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Re: Tournament of Hearts: 2017 Predictions

quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Going out on a distant limb here but don't see anyone coming close to knocking off Ottawa Power Plant's Rachel Homan.

Jones is inconsequential - she doesn't fare that well vs. Rachel in recent outings; Rachel waits to pounce and JJ always gave her opportunities. Englot might be better able to defend vs. Homan, not as much crazy offense as JJ.

Kleibrink was super-hot during Alberta - can the 48 year old Alberta great maintain her fine play in St. Cath's? Guess we'll have to wait for that answer! Rotating 3rd will be fun to watch!

The Alberta squad who didn't make it to STOH would have a better chance. Val was always able to hang with Rachel for 7 or 8 ends anyways, as she played things really tight. Don't know if Shannon can do this.

I don't really see Mariah Carey being able to stave off the extreme shot-pelting she'll be subject to by RH.

Only other team that I can see giving Rachel a test is Kris McCarville - mainly because Kris is such a mature curling mind. That said, Rachel is stronger at every position than McCarville. Most even would be at skip - where Krista can handle house muddle and nuance slightly better than Raytch. Krista still no match for Homan's nuclear negative ice takeout bombs.



I didn't know Mariah Carey took up curling. I really don't look forward to her call-in for sweeping ...or maybe she sings .

But yes Rachel is the overwhelming favorite. If anyone is going to stop her mccarville maybe has the best shot, if not her Carey.

But this event reminds me of a hand slam on the women's side. Serena Williams is the overwhelming favorite and if she is in decent form it honestly feels like your aren't watching to see who will win but who her opponent will be in the final and will it be close

I will disagree about mccarville. One on one I don think mccarvilleand Homan are that far apart. Krista is a fantastic shot maker and we can make everything. The edge Rachel has is with the big weight shots. At thirdkendra Lilly is , again not far off from Emma. This is why I say that mccarville is the biggest obstacle to Rachel winning. I'd still favor Homan but Krista has the That could stand up to her that best and is probably best equipped to take advantage of an off day for Homan.

I'm gonna change my original thought and say the dark horse hre would be Manitoba. Englot has a strong from end and Cameron is a strong third. Englot isn't the shot maker Rachel is but we is an excellent strategist and has phenomenal soft weight game. She has seen Everton there is to see as well

Last edited by misty1 on 02-14-17 at 06:02PM

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02-14-17 06:33PM
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Jones

Jones is not going to the Scottie's - but again she has to be in very post. Doesn't matter if she might have won or not - she won't be there!

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02-14-17 08:15PM
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Put up Jones name cuz I think even if she had fluked off Manitoba she would have been easier prey in St. Caths for Homan (amongst others). JJ has put together a nice McEwen like run in the cash portion of the year - but she was quite soggy in her own provincial playdown. Point is - Englot is the superior strategist and her team's game won't allow for more than the odd blowout.

FINAL FOUR should feature 4 of the following 5 teams:

Homan, McCarville, Englot, Kleibrink, Carey.

Carey is the wild-card - her game is almost as yo-yoish as her fellow Manitoban Jones. Goes into those terrible funks when things don't swing her way.

Easy to see Homan & McCarville finishing 1-2

and the other 3 fighting for bronze (plus a wad of Olympic Qualifying points)

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02-14-17 09:44PM
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My Predictions

NB wins relegation.

ON 10-1
CAN 9-2
NO 8-3
AL 7-4
MAN 7-4
BC 6-5
SASK 5-6
PEI 4-7
QUE 4-7
NS 2-9
NB 2-9
NFL 2-9

Kleibrink wins tiebreaker
Homan wins 1/2
McCarville wins 3/4
McCarville wins Semi
McCarville upsets Homan in final!

Krista beat Rachel in the quarters in the only slam she played this year. Not to mention, Homan has collapsed in some finals in the past (last year's Provincials)....

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02-14-17 10:10PM
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Manitoba Legend
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Re: My Predictions

quote:
Originally posted by Rocketman
NB wins relegation.

ON 10-1
CAN 9-2
NO 8-3
AL 7-4
MAN 7-4
BC 6-5
SASK 5-6
PEI 4-7
QUE 4-7
NS 2-9
NB 2-9
NFL 2-9

Kleibrink wins tiebreaker
Homan wins 1/2
McCarville wins 3/4
McCarville wins Semi
McCarville upsets Homan in final!

Krista beat Rachel in the quarters in the only slam she played this year. Not to mention, Homan has collapsed in some finals in the past (last year's Provincials)....



4 the most part I agree with both your round-robin and finalists.

However, I'd have MoneyPenny Barker (SK) and Mar-la-Go (BC) switch records.

I think we're heading for a Homan - McCarville final but I think Homan finally cleans up her messy play in big matches and subdues a game but slightly under-powered Northern Ontario 4

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02-15-17 12:40AM
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Re: My Predictions

quote:
Originally posted by Rocketman
NB wins relegation.

ON 10-1
CAN 9-2
NO 8-3
AL 7-4
MAN 7-4
BC 6-5
SASK 5-6
PEI 4-7
QUE 4-7
NS 2-9
NB 2-9
NFL 2-9

Kleibrink wins tiebreaker
Homan wins 1/2
McCarville wins 3/4
McCarville wins Semi
McCarville upsets Homan in final!

Krista beat Rachel in the quarters in the only slam she played this year. Not to mention, Homan has collapsed in some finals in the past (last year's Provincials)....



My predictions would look the same except for the final result where I have Rachel beating Krista in the final.

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02-15-17 11:37PM
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Told myself I wasn't going to make predictions this year because I'm never close, but alas...

ON 10-1
MB 8-3
CAN 8-3
NO 7-4
PEI 7-4
AB 7-4
BC 5-6
NL 4-7
QC 4-7
SK 3-8
NWT 2-9
NS 1-10

TB1: PEI defeats AB
TB2: NO defeats PEI
1vs2: ON defeats MB
3vs4: CAN defeats NO
Semi: CAN defeats MB
Final: ON defeats CAN

I have a feeling it will be a rough scotties for SK. The Barker team had only played two spiels together prior to provincials. They were ranked 2nd last in provincials and won both the 3vs4 game and the semi final because their opponent couldn't make a draw to the 8 foot for the win.

I am cheering for Northern Ontario this year. I thought McCarville was really clutch last year and had great strategy.

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02-16-17 02:53PM
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I'm betting this is going to be an all Ontario final. Carey

remains an enigma. Am still surprised just how well she curled

in the Scotties last year. A similar performance this year

could result in another title.


Assuming each of these teams plays their very best, Team

Homan should win it. Especially if these Skips bring their

'A' game. Homan at her best is simply the best.


And should Homan win, it would be her third Scotties title.

It is noteworthy that at age 27, Homan has achieved more

to-date than any other 27 year old Skip in Canadian curling

history. As a matter of fact, at this juncture she has

achieved more than Schmirler, Colleen* Jones and Jenny

Jones combined! Undoubtedly, a Canadian curling prodigy.


*Colleen holds the current record of 6 Scotties gold.

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02-16-17 04:54PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Deliverer
I'm betting this is going to be an all Ontario final. Carey

remains an enigma. Am still surprised just how well she curled

in the Scotties last year. A similar performance this year

could result in another title.


Assuming each of these teams plays their very best, Team

Homan should win it. Especially if these Skips bring their

'A' game. Homan at her best is simply the best.


And should Homan win, it would be her third Scotties title.

It is noteworthy that at age 27, Homan has achieved more

to-date than any other 27 year old Skip in Canadian curling

history. As a matter of fact, at this juncture she has

achieved more than Schmirler, Colleen* Jones and Jenny

Jones combined! Undoubtedly, a Canadian curling prodigy.


*Colleen holds the current record of 6 Scotties gold.



I hope for Homan that this turns out to be her best Scotties ever. Certainly seems like a lot of posters are with her. I think the Homan team would best represent Canada with Shannon a very close second.

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02-16-17 05:08PM
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quote:
Originally posted by albetts


I hope for Homan that this turns out to be her best Scotties ever. Certainly seems like a lot of posters are with her. I think the Homan team would best represent Canada with Shannon a very close second.



Totally agree that a focused Team Homan would represent Canada best. She'd be co-favorites w/ Princess Muirhead - but I like Rachel's game over Scotland's 1-man gang!

Feltscher or Paetz would also give Rachel some trouble - Feltscher perhaps more than Paetz. If Tirinzoni had her regular 3rd - I suspect this might have been her year to get out of Switzerland - she plays the most North American style of all the top swiss squads.

To get the best of Rachel you have to go all-out to mudclutter the house - ie. guards in front - angle freezes from here to eternity. Try and force Rachel into a confined pitti-patti game and you might have a chance. Try to match them shot-for-shot and you'll invariably come out in 2nd place.

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02-16-17 06:56PM
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Homan

of course it will be her best Scottie's ever, even if she curls crappy, there is no competition for her. Too bad it is such a week field. For the first two days, we will be watching the women just throw and hit, throw and hit. it will be a boring one, too bad they could not just skip it and head to the Brier.

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02-17-17 10:53AM
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This is a very rude and disrespectful comment to make on the Scotties participants. These ladies have gotten there because they won their provinces. How dare you take that away from them. If you're bored , then don't watch, but let's show a little respect .

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02-17-17 02:13PM
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I am willing to give 10-1 odds that this will not end up being Team Homan's best Scotties ever. For any of you looking to take that bet here's what they will have to beat. (And you can ask Gerry, I'm a bookie who honours his bets:-)

2014 - Undefeated in RR and National Champion.

Statistics. Team shooting- 90%.
Unusually the lead had the lowest shooting percentage on the team. 88%.
The rest of the team - 2nd 90%, Vice 91%, Skip 90%.

Perhaps most amazing this was achieved before the single sweeper innovation.

Beating their 2013 Scotties won't be any cup of tea either.
10-1 in the RR and National Champion beating the undefeated Team Manitoba/Jones in the playoffs.

As a basis of comparison for other great Scotties runs.

2013 Team Manitoba skipped by Jenifer Jones was undefeated in RR and top of the table in shooting percentage at 85%.

As an aside:

Skip Jones that year was an unbeatable +11 in her plus/minus comparison to the other skips she played in the RR. Good ole greatest lead of all time Dawn Askin was +9. When your lead and skip outplay the opposition pretty much every game you tend to do o.k. (Vying for the understatement of the year award here on CZ:-)

Lies, damn lies, and statistics category:

In 2014 Lisa Weagle was a cumulative -1 in her plus/minus comparison to the leads she played against in the RR.

As anyone in the know will tell you Lisa is second only to Dawn as a lead and due to the Team Homan early and often tick strategy sometimes has an even bigger impact on the game. E.g. the 2013 three ender that broke open the game against Team Jones in the playoffs.

As to who will win this year?

Team Homan is an obvious favourite. As to those who point to their 'weakness' in finals due to a loss or two in the past. Remember the context. I.e. This is curling we are talking about. The game is sometimes likened to 'chess on ice'. Don't know about you but I've never lost a pawn to a pick.

By way of further context Hall of Fame Russ Howard played in 14 Briers and won 2.(lost 3 finals) Like golf, and for the same reason as golf, this game is impossible to completely dominate. There are quite simply too many 'field of play' elements that can't be fully controlled.

To date at least Team Homan's career has been extraordinary. They still have a long way to go to match the careers of either Team Jones. Suffice to say they have done a stellar job at putting themselves in the conversation.

Last edited by JB42 on 02-17-17 at 02:49PM

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02-17-17 02:46PM
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I think Homan might win but not without a fight from McCarville or Carey. Not sure about Kleibrink. Val didn't give her much of a game in Alberta. Kleibrink won because of a club like miss from Val.

Englot and BC Marla may be there...don't count BC out.

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02-17-17 08:32PM
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quote:
Originally posted by JB42
I am willing to give 10-1 odds that this will not end up being Team Homan's best Scotties ever. For any of you looking to take that bet here's what they will have to beat. (And you can ask Gerry, I'm a bookie who honours his bets:-)

2014 - Undefeated in RR and National Champion.

Statistics. Team shooting- 90%.
Unusually the lead had the lowest shooting percentage on the team. 88%.
The rest of the team - 2nd 90%, Vice 91%, Skip 90%.

Perhaps most amazing this was achieved before the single sweeper innovation.

Beating their 2013 Scotties won't be any cup of tea either.
10-1 in the RR and National Champion beating the undefeated Team Manitoba/Jones in the playoffs.

As a basis of comparison for other great Scotties runs.

2013 Team Manitoba skipped by Jenifer Jones was undefeated in RR and top of the table in shooting percentage at 85%.

As an aside:

Skip Jones that year was an unbeatable +11 in her plus/minus comparison to the other skips she played in the RR. Good ole greatest lead of all time Dawn Askin was +9. When your lead and skip outplay the opposition pretty much every game you tend to do o.k. (Vying for the understatement of the year /award here on CZ:-)

Lies, damn lies, and statistics category:

In 2014 Lisa Weagle was a cumulative -1 in her plus/minus comparison to the leads she played against in the RR.

As anyone in the know will tell you Lisa is second only to Dawn as a lead and due to the Team Homan early and often tick strategy sometimes has an even bigger impact on the game. E.g. the 2013 three ender that broke open the game against Team Jones in the playoffs.

As to who will win this year?

Team Homan is an obvious favourite. As to those who point to their 'weakness' in finals due to a loss or two in the past. Remember the context. I.e. This is curling we are talking +-ut. The game is sometimes likened to 'chess on ice'. Don't know about you but I've never lost a pawn to a pick.

By way of further context Hall of Fame Russ Howard played in 14 Briers and won 2.(lost 3 finals) Like golf, and for the same reason as golf, this game is impossible to completely dominate. There are quite simply too many 'field of play' elements that can't be fully controlled.

To date at least Team Homan's career has been extraordinary. They still have a long way to go to match the careers of either Team Jones. Suffice to say they have done a stellar job at putting themselves in the conversation.




As an economist and a statistics major, I enjoyed your post.

Your reference to 'Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics' brought

back old memories.


With regard to your 10-1 wager that this will not be Team

Homan's best Scotties ever, I presume this actually means

that not only would they have to go thru the RR undefeated

as well as the playoffs, but in addition have an overall

weekly average in excess of 90%.


Was that 10 -1 a typo or did you actually mean 1000 - 1?


In any case, while I cannot entertain your offer, I do agree

that Team Homan has a long, long way to go to match the

'Jones'. I would just point out, however, that to date,

excluding the '17 Scotties, they have a winning percentage

of 50% compared with Jenny's 41.7% and Colleen's 28.6%. It

may be significant that the majority of Jenny's wins

occurred when she was in her mid 30's whereas the majority

of Colleen's came when she was in her 40's.


Does this have anything to do with Homan & Co.'s future

success? Not really. Only time will tell!

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02-17-17 09:54PM
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Draw 1 STOH has one absolutely delicious monster matchup.

Homan vs. Carey

Normally the defending Scotties champion would be favoured, even slightly but in this case Homan will be favoured. Carey & crew are experienced ice-women but I don't think they can withstand the kind of shot-pelting and percentages Homan will subject them to - - - probably stay fairly close until Homan breaks them around end 5 or 6. Should be riveting TV for however long Carey can stay in the game!

Good secondary matchup - they'll switch to it after Homan polishes off Carey is

Englot vs. Belisle

Manitoba (other than Jennifer Jones) is usually a slow starter at these events so I think its gonna be an early slobber-nokker that goes the distance!

Mattatall and Mallett round out the card. Neither should be around at the end.

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02-18-17 09:57AM
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Are there prizes for the person who has the closest prediction?

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02-18-17 11:09AM
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An interesting Vegas betting line -

might be:

Total losses suffered by Team Homan during entire STOH event, including playoffs

The odds might go down as follows:

4 or more losses - 5%
3 total losses - 12%
2 total losses - 38%
1 total losses - 29%
O total losses - 16%

Conversely, lets look at possible Englot odds:

4 or more losses - 40%
3 total losses - 37%
2 total losses - 15%
1 total losses - 6%
0 total losses - 2%

Can't help myself - if JJ was in the field:

4 or more losses - 27%
3 total losses - 43%
2 total losses - 20%
1 total losses - 6%
0 total losses - 4%

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02-18-17 12:22PM
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HOman 2.00, Man 5.50 , Can 5.50. Today's game HOma 1.42
CAn 2.67
From a sports betting site, So if you bet on Homan to win it all you double your $.

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02-18-17 06:47PM
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As a big Team Homan fan and resident of Ontario that was flat out scary is what that was.

Up 4-2 with hammer going into the 7th you'd normally expect it to be a sleeper. Well sleepy is precisely what it wasn't.

Both teams struggled with the ice both weight and line and will have to get better to live up to their pre-tournament billing.

I have pretty much no doubt that Team Homan will.... so if anyone can point me to that betting site:-)

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02-19-17 07:55AM
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Don't think it was a particularly great idea for the STOH ice-maker to go all bragadocious to Vic & Russ - telling them that 'they won't have any problems controlling the ice conditions this week'
Then, suddenly there's an order of ice-poxed frost showing up!

Why did this occur?

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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2158

quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Don't think it was a particularly great idea for the STOH ice-maker to go all bragadocious to Vic & Russ - telling them that 'they won't have any problems controlling the ice conditions this week'
Then, suddenly there's an order of ice-poxed frost showing up!

Why did this occur?



It was a lovely spring day in Southern Ontario...maybe these teams should practice on regular club ice to get a feel for "tricky" ice.

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