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04-17-16 02:06PM
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tuck
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Kentucky Derby 2016

With Seniors and Mixed Doubles and Players' and Champions...this curling stuff doesn't seem like it will end until we are actually loading the starting gate with colts. I can't wait for all the curling to be over. When are Arenas? I have crops to plant.

So it's time to start, even though I'm too busy to start today. So I'll be brief today. I'll do more later...I think...maybe.

Destin will win this year's Kentucky Derby. Mor Spirit will get second and Exaggerator (son of Curlin) will get third...unless it's muddy that day...then Exaggerator wins.

If I have as good a year with horses than I had with with curling, we could all make some money.

Ben Tucker

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04-17-16 09:08PM
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jhcurl
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Destin, Mor Spirit exactor (CDN) would pay over $200 (US). The Tri would pay in the four figures. Nyquist is going to be the favorite at 7-2 or 3-1, this is the year to throw out the favorite.

Destin and Exaggerator are the only horses with a 100+ Beyer. The Derby has usually had a winner with a Beyer in the 100+ range. But this field is really slow. Look for a late closer to win this year.

Wide open race with lots of money to be made. Time for me to start studying.

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Go Phils, got my WS bet on you

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04-17-16 09:58PM
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Arenas is May 10-15, Tuck...officiating assignments just came out today...so you have another month (or , depending)

AS for the Derby...I predict that the horse noone expects will do something no one expects it to. What horse that is? Shoot, I dunno...that's why they call it gambling

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04-17-16 11:38PM
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Destin is an interesting story. You don't even have to be a horse racing fan. Those who are into sport and sport training and analytics should take note.

First, you weed through the Derby field of very good horses and you narrow it down. First you eliminate those that don't have the bloodlines for going 1 1/4 miles. That tosses out quite a few. Tapit is the hottest sire we have going these days and his progeny seldom are successful over 1 1/8 (actually just one...Tapiture...who could go long at his home Belmont track). The hot new sire is Uncle Mo. His first crop of colts and fillies have been winning everything...well...everything under 1 1/8.

So that leaves you colts from proven stamina sires. Once you have that list, you eliminate the slow ones. That is more straight-forward than subjective judging of pedigree.

Once finished, you are left with two colts. Destin (son of Giant's Causeway) and Exaggerator (son of Curlin) who both have triple-digit Beyer speed figures. One could also consider Shagaf (son of Bernardini) who has an Equibase Speed number above their magic 109...but Shagaf is out of an Unbridled Song mare and unlikely to love going that far.

Then you double-check the speed figs (because we're putting Tuck's money on the line here and Tuck takes his money serious like a heart attack). On the double-check, you'll notice that Exaggerator's only great speed figure came on a muddy track. Can you trust a fig that came from a muddy track? No. No, you cannot.

So it's Destin.

Now that I've told you why it will be Destin, I'll next post why it won't be Destin and how analytics have ruined sport. That should drive Dallas and Gerry insane. Maybe, after trying for years and years, they will ban me from the site.

Ben Tucker

PS I'm a dirt farmer. I'm not a professional and don't pretend to be much more than an average amatuer. Do NOT bet significant amounts of money based on what you read here. If you do, then you are stupid and deserve to lose your money. It was just a matter of time until it happened.

Last edited by tuck on 04-18-16 at 09:09AM

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04-17-16 11:47PM
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Most professional gamblers and most professional horse analysts will tell you that Destin will NOT win the Kentucky Derby. They have a couple of very good points to stand on.

First, Destin has never raced over 1 1/16 miles. Why? We will get to that. When was the last time a colt won The Derby without a race of at least 1 1/8? Never. Never, ever has a colt won The Derby without at least one race of 9 furlongs. (furlong=1/8 of a mile...Derby is 10 furlongs)

Second, Destin will race in The Derby off an 8 week layoff. When was the last time a colt won The Derby with that long of a layoff? Never. At least, not in recent memory.

So The Derby has been won by colts and geldings and even fillies. It has been won by grays and brown bays and blacks and red chestnuts. It has never been won by a horse doing what Destin is doing. So why are they doing it?

A feeble attempt to answer that in the next post.

Ben Tucker

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04-18-16 12:23AM
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To analyse the training of Destin, you have to go deep into the newer thinking and the newer math. You have to have a familiarity with Bounce Theory, Rogozin Sheets and training to a peak.

This stuff can apply to curling as well. Heck, it all started with an English doctor studying human Olympic milers. Why is a peak performance seldom followed by a peak performance? Who was really the best athlete in that race if one ran wide and got edged by the guy with the inside track? How important is the inside track and is it always important? The answers, backed with math, were significant. (sidenote: I hate math)

Rogozin Sheets go well beyond the record of past races. They try to take into account every measurable variance. I'd make a list here, but it is too long. They even take into account wind speed and direction. They have become important to trainers and owner when picking the next race for their horse. They more accurately portray the strength of the competition at various distances and in various circumstances.

Bounce Theory has to do with building an athlete to peak at a specific time. It goes on to forecast what to do if that peak has been met and what to expect afterwards.

So we have a nice colt named Destin. He's bred to go long, but he is also wicked fast. (He won the Tampa Bay Derby and set a new track record doing it.) Therein lays the problem.

Modern Bounce Theory and Rogozin Sheet math then project Destin to "bounce" off that peak performance. They project (with alarming accuracy) that his next two races will be substandard.

Oops. The colt peaked too early. Now what do the theorists say to do? Shut him down! And shut him down they did. They rested the colt and are now trying to build him back up to a peak through training. That's not an easy thing to do. Usually a colt needs a race (or two) to reach a peak.

So the modern-thinking owners have put their fate into the capable hands of trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has had lots of Derby colts before, but not many winners. He had a reputation for getting them all injured on the road to Kentucky. So he's OK with this unconventional (some might say bizarre) training of Destin. In his mind, he HAS to have a horse ready for a big race off a 40 day layoff. That's something he understands and does fairly often. Ideal? Heck, no, but it is something he often does successfully.

Deeper down the rabbit hole than Alice ever dared, we get into some serious math. Thorograph speed numbers...Moss pace figures...etc. The Rogozin number that the pros consider is the Quality Number. This is on a scale of 0 to 10. 10 being the weakest number. 1 equals a top champion horse.

Destin has scored a -3. No horse has posted that low of a number at that young of an age since they've been tracking.

So can it be done? Can a colt peak too early and come back? Can a colt win The Kentucky Derby off a break? Can a colt win that grind without ever racing at least 9 furlongs first? Will he defy history?

I think he can. I'm going to bet that he can...if his timed workouts look good. Mostly I believe Destin can buck history because the field isn't all that good.

Is the field not all that good? There are, at a minimum, three fillies who could win or place in The Derby. It is a fantastic crop of fillies this year.

I'll write more about the fillies later. There is one that I want to talk about right away, so that will be next up: Songbird And The Man Who Cried When Eight Belles Died.

Ben Tucker

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04-18-16 09:06AM
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Offda. Late night posting. I should edit, but I'm leaving the errors so everybody knows that I'm nothing but an amatuer sharing my guesses.

Misspelling repeatedly Ragozin just shows that I know about them but don't study them. Attributing the -3 to Ragozin rather than Thorograph just shows that I read, but don't do any real research.

Another error: Smarty Jones ran a negative number. (He then bounced for two races, but was still good enough to win them) So Destin isn't the only youngster to ever put up such a gaudy number.

Don't bet heavily on my advice. You'll make more money betting against me.

But you get my point: The owners and trainer are doing new stuff with Destin based on analytics. He peaked too soon and they are trying desperately to overcome that with new methods. They are trusting the analytics completely which is driving the old people insane.

You win the Tampa Bay Derby and are not going to race again before the Derby? That's insane!

Ben Tucker

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04-18-16 09:12AM
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Ahh....analytics...now we *are* squarely within my ballpark...this is what I do for a living (admittedly, my bailiwick is fiscal projection, not horse racing...but the math is the same, it's only the sources of the input that is different).

ever since "Moneyball"...well...more accurately, ever since the Oakland A's used the concepts of Analytics to scrape a $120M performance out of a $70M player budget, sports leadership has been trying like hell to find ways to replicate that success.

Something that needs to be noted though...The A's never won a Series with Moneyball lineups...the most successful Moneyball like concept was the 2004 Boston Red Sox...who used Moneyball's rules *with* a big budget.

You can use Analytics to scrape a few percentage points out of the corners of the performance, but unless you're within those few percentage points of the top, it ain't enough.

So, I'm curious as hell to see what happens here...the model says using Analytics *should* result in a *better* race performance for Destin than not using it would...but...was Destin in range to begin with?

Guess we'll see about 2 minutes after the horses leave the gate.

I will say this much though...you want some *easy* money Tuck? Hope that Destin wins the Derby, and then start betting *AGAINST* the wave of "Moneyhorse" afficionados that will flood the tracks.

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04-18-16 09:27AM
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Tuck, you can leave out the Songbird post. Developed a low grade fever and will not be running in the Oaks. You need to find another filly for the Oaks-Derby double.

JH
I read a bit as well, check DRF everyday

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04-18-16 01:55PM
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I need to slightly disagree with JHcurl on a couple of minor points:

I don't think that Destin/Mor Spirit/Exaggerator $2 trifecta bet will pay over $1,000. I'm guessing those three will be inside the top 5 betting favorites, so it will likely be around $800.

Still, he (as usual) makes a salient point: If the favorite is vulnerable to missing the board, it's time to play the trifecta because it could really pay.

I will need to expand my trifecta box because a) I'm greedy and am always looking for the big payoff and b) I can't really trust Destin, Mor Spirit nor Exaggerator.

Destin has the breeding and he has the speed figures, but he does have the unorthodox training schedule. Betting a horse off a layoff tends to be a losing method over the years.

Mor Spirit can't be trusted. Their isn't a ton of stamina on his damside and he has lost his last two races.

Exaggerator is very well bred, but his only two good speed figures both came off muddy tracks.

So I will be looking to supplement my trifecta box with one or two "insurance/greed" picks. Ideally, these would be longshots that might make the trifecta pay over $5,000...but that seems like an unachievable dream and, therefore, money poorly spent.

Ben Tucker

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04-18-16 02:15PM
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I am not going to leave out the Songbird post, even with today's news. I'll get to it soon.

The news does give me an opportunity to suggest that I'm fairly bright...and then prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that I'm an idiot.

A few weeks ago, I was shopping for value at the Kentucky Derby Futures Bet site. I was too late to wager on Destin who had dropped from 16 to 1 down to 10 to 1...which I didn't consider fair value 5 weeks before the Derby.

While looking, I glanced at the Kentucky Oaks future wagers. No surprise, I saw Songbird at even money. (more on Songbird soon). I did see, however, that Rachel's Valentina was at a generous 13 to 1.

Rachel's Valentina is the daughter of Bernardini and the beloved Rachel Alexandra. Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness over the boys. It was the year Mine That Bird won the Derby. Rachel's owners saw that and decided it was a weak year for the boys...so they kicked their butts at Pimlico.

So I thought to myself, "It's a long time until the Oaks". (the Oaks is the Friday race for fillies that is the equivalent of Saturday's Derby for any gender...but usually has just colts). "Sure, Songbird is the most likely winner...but Rachel's Valentina is the second best filly and weird things happen in horse racing. For the right odds, it's a good bet."

So I put $10 down on RV. (OK, it's $100, but I don't want you to think I'm a degenerate gambler). Today I'm looking quite bright.

Now for the plain truth:

Fresh off that wager, RV was running in her first race off a long winter break. She was decent odds because she was up against an undefeated filly who went off at even money. I knew RV was the better filly going long, so I bet her.

Off they went. The undefeated horse led most of the way. At the top of the stretch these two favorites were eyeball-to-eyeball. Then RV's breeding and class shone through and she took over. I was complimenting myself on my superior thinking.

Then, like a blur, some 40 to 1 shot came from way back and nipped both fillies at the wire.

Proof, beyond any reasonable doubt, that I'm an idiot and an amatuer.

Seriously, people. Look to the pros to get your picks if you are betting serious money.

Still, I'm pretty happy here holding my Rachel's Valentina win bet at 13 to 1. I think she'll go off as the post-time favorite at 3 to 1 and I think she'll win.

Ben Tucker

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04-18-16 05:58PM
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SONGBIRD AND THE MAN WHO CRIED WHEN EIGHT BELLES DIED

Ask any horse racing fan, expert or, heck, even a horse, "Who, of either gender, is the best 3-year-old in all the land?" It's important that you add "of either gender" because horse people automatically segregate horses by gender...as do curling fans for curlers.

The unanimous answer will be "Songbird". If your "expert" does not say Songbird, find a better expert. This ceased to be a subjective question months ago.

Songbird is a Medaglia d'Oro out of Ivanavinalot by West Acre (translation to English is: She's a daughter of sire Medaglia d'Oro and her mother is I Want To Win A Lot who is a daughter of West Acre).

So if Songbird is the best in all the land, why isn't she running in The Derby? Fillies have won The Derby before (Winning Colors, Genuine Risk, Regret). Over three dozen fillies have raced in The Derby over the years.

There are two reasons that Songbird will not be in The Derby. One is relatively minor, but I'll touch on it because it's the reason we won't see many more fillies ever in The Derby. The second reason is the real reason.

First, the way the starting gate is selected has changed over the years. Before we had the current system, the colts were selected based upon how much money they had won in unrestricted (anyone can enter) stakes races. That system lead to owners running and running and running their horses to earn enough money to get in. Not a good thing. Now we have a Points System (curlers hate those words) The points are doled out in the top Prep Races like the Santa Anita Derby. So for a filly to get points, she has to race against the boys early and then again at The Derby. Most owners and trainers simply will not do that.

Second (and the real reason Songbird won't be in The Derby...she would have stomped the boys in any of the preps) is that Songbird is owned by Fox Hill Farms which is owned by Rick Porter. Mr. Porter has had life's ups and downs.

Rick Porter used to own Eight Belles. She, too, was a great filly. They raced her in the 2008 Derby and she finished second to Big Brown. In her heroic effort, she broke both of her front legs and had to put down immediately.

So Mr. Porter will not race a filly against the boys before she is mature enough. Bettors and racetracks (eager for the huge gate) beg for it to happen. It. Is. Not! Going. To. Happen. It took years for him to recover from that tragedy. It's not going to happen.

They will run Songbird against the boys when the filly tells them it's time. Not before. When she is mature and strong and not intimidated by colts, she will race them.

Ben Tucker

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04-19-16 12:22AM
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Bob Baffert pulled Cupid from The Derby today. The colt needs a minor surgery.

That lets in Mo Tom. Mo Tom is named for his sire (Uncle Mo) and his owner (Tom Benson). Technically, Mrs. Benson owns the colt.

Mrs. Benson also owns Tom's Ready who is also in The Derby. Pretty cool to own a Derby horse. It must be very cool to own two.

Tom Benson also owns the New Orleans Saints of the NFL and the New Orleans Pelicans of the NBA. Mr. Benson owns really cool toys.

I'm a fan of Cupid, but not for a 10 furlong race; so he wasn't going to be in my Derby trifecta box. I'm a fan of Mo Tom as well, but certainly not in a long race like The Derby. He certainly won't be in my Derby trifecta box.

Mo Tom is a hard closer who tends to come from the back of the pack. In the Risen Star Stakes, he was charging towards the lead when another horse wandered into him. He still finished hard and got third. Then in the Louisiana Derby, a horse was slowing down dramatically in front of him and his jockey foolishly steered Mo Tom into that horse's hindquarters. Mo Tom has had some bad luck.

Tough trips are a good handicapping tool. If you remember that horse finished third, but was really the best horse in that race, you can more accurately predict him being an upset winner of the next race. However, I don't think Mo Tom has the bloodlines on either side of his pedigree to get 1 1/4. Way back in his family tree are stamina influences like Caro and Arch, but both his maternal (Rubiano) and paternal (Indian Charlie) grandfathers were hard closing milers. I suspect Mo Tom is a hard closing miler as well. I could be wrong.

Ben Tucker

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04-19-16 12:38AM
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With the defection of Cupid from the Derby field, a colt named Adventist needs just two more defections to make it into the starting gate.

If Adventist runs, he will be in my trifecta box. He checks all of the boxes...mostly the box that asks for greedy long odds. He should go off at post time around 50 to 1 if he gets in.

Adventist is well-bred for the distance (Any Given Saturday out of a Deputy Minister mare). He is also pretty dang fast.

Adventist is also very "green".

"Green" is what horsemen call a colt who hasn't yet figured out racing. They fight their jockey when the jockey wants them to go slow. They shy away from the whip rather than kick it into gear. Basically, they have no idea that they are racing and are supposed to win.

Adventist is the poster child for green colts. He has no idea that he's racing. If you watch the replays of his stakes races (3rd in the Withers, 3rd in the Gotham and 3rd in the Wood), he's just out running with his brand new friends. In each of those races, he is obviously the best horse (especially the Gotham when he did well running against a strong inside track bias).

Will the poor, dumb, untrained, green colt put it all together at The Derby if he gets in? Highly unlikely with that noisy crowd. However, sheer talent alone could send him to a fourth consecutive 3rd place finish.

And who knows? If they go fast early and everybody is falling to the wayside, his talent alone might have him winning.

Either way, I'm cheering for him. He's just out there doing what he loves to do; run. He has no idea why the small human on his back is hitting him with a stick. It's like watching 1st grade kids playing teeball. Cute as heck. He does love to run.

Ben Tucker

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04-19-16 09:35PM
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I have to recant a statement and, as much as it pains me, admit that JHcurl was right on this.

In reviewing past years when the 5 to 1 second choice and a couple of other 10 to 1 contenders filled the trifecta, it did pay well over $1,000.

I, too, am a big Secretariat fan. His bloodlines continue on to this day at the highest levels. He was generally an unsuccessful sire. He was, however, an extremely successful damsire...meaning that the offspring of his daughters were generally talented.

That being said, I'm not a big Nyquist fan if the race is 10 furlongs. A colt from the very first crop of freshman sire, Uncle Mo, I don't believe that Uncle Mo will impart much stamina into his offspring. So that stamina needs to come from the damside. With his maternal grandfather being Forestry, I'm just not seeing Nyquist lasting the mile and a quarter.

True, if one looks deeper into Nyquist's family tree, one finds notable stamina influences like Arch and Seeking The Gold. The fact still remains: Both of Nyquist's grandfathers were hard closing milers and Nyquist sure looks like a hard closing miler.

The same can be said for Mo Tom.

Backing up to JH's main point: On the years when the favorite might be vulnerable, that's the year to play. On a year when it's possible that he might not hit the board, that's the year to really spread around a bunch of small bets. They can really pay big.

Ben Tucker

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04-20-16 09:03PM
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That might be a first, that Tuck admitted I was right in public. Of course I knew I was right because I figure out the odds and win value before making a bet.

Unlike Tuck, I will be making a lot of bets, some large some small. Cover bets are the way to go. Throwing out the favorite will factor in a lot of them but need that big cover bet just in case. I love the tri wheel with the favorite on top and 4 or 5 horses under, that is the cover. Hit it and break even, lose it and the others make money.

JH
still free rolling on Derby bets since 1998 (big exacta and tri win)

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04-20-16 11:58PM
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Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

I, too, am still playing with House Money after the California Chrome/Commanding Curve exacta/trifecta. JH, you must remember Commanding Curve. You told us all that he was a "toss" as soon as he drew out in the auxiliary gate. (I can't let him get too snooty...he needed a slap-down)

I play the ponies too much, but I'm still learning. One important thing that I've learned about myself is that I get just as excited over a $15 win/place bet (my horse needs to finish first or second...total cost is $30) as a $100 bet. So I'm doing smaller bets. I'm also playing fewer races. I'm also recognizing the advantages of focusing on one track and only one track.

Anyway...enough about me...back to The Derby:

I can make logical arguments for each of the 20 colts in the starting gate (and the ones on the waiting list) to finish in the Top Three. I can also make a very good argument that you can't trust a single one of them to make the Top Three. It's a pretty wide open race.

I'm not done with my homework, but I've started eliminating horses. These are my "tosses". The list will have to grow someday soon, but here is the first of them:

Mo Tom: Tough luck colt has many fans and some experts like him a little bit. I think it is mostly because the "tough racing luck in his last race" is a popular handicapping angle. However, it ignores the fact that even his best career race was pretty slow AND he is descended from milers. He will not be on most experts "toss" list, but he's on mine.

Tom's Ready: The trainer is famous for sneaking a bomb into the Derby exacta, but I don't like this one's chances of getting the distance. I also think he's pretty slow. He did get second in the Louisiana Derby, but that was with a dream trip when the rail opened up for him. The trip was so good and he was so lucky, he should have won if he was any good at all.

Oscar Nominated: Turf horse and not a very good turf horse. The owner nominates a dozen colts to the Derby every year and even more right at the deadline...but never nominated this one and has to pay the $200,000 late entry fee. He's only doing it because he makes his living off the colt's sire, Kitten's Joy. Even the owner doesn't think a lot of this horse or he would have nominated him. Today Vegas has him at longer odds than two colts who are still on the waiting list. All that being said, he will get the distance and won't finish last.

Danzing Candy: He'll be on the lead for the opening mile and that's kind of fun. Then he'll fade to last. He is my pick to finish last. He is fast...blazing fast...but I fear JH can run further than this guy. If he wins, I lose. Just that simple.

Now I'm liking Destin, Exaggerator and Mor Spirit so far. With those three picked and these five tossed, that leaves me a dozen yet to sort out. If Adventist makes the field, I'll use him.

More homework to do. I may structure a bet like JHcurl's keyed-trifecta. I'm sure that Jeffy meant to post "the pick" instead of "the favorite". JH doesn't like chalk.

Ben Tucker

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04-21-16 10:24PM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

So I've listed my "toss" horses. Next comes the list of horses I'm unlikely to use in any wager. I realize the casual racing fan is just interested in who is going to win (Destin) and maybe a nice longshot to play (again, Destin). Most racing fans, however, like to play exactas and trifectas. We find them much more fun and profitable than a straight Win bet.

So I am unlikely to use:

Nyquist: Yep, the favorite. I view him as a vulnerable favorite, but even I have to admit that he looks good to hit the board. Well...pretty good. His breeding isn't great for going much over a mile. His speed figures are just average for the field. My main reason for not using him, however, is that everybody else will be using him. Therefore, using pari mutuel math, nothing will pay huge if he hits the top three. So for three very good reasons, I'm not using him. I'll bet Destin to Win with enough money to cover me if Nyquist does hit the board, but I'm aiming higher this year.

Mohaymen: He was the favorite before the Florida Derby. Some might view him as great value as, surely, he is much better than the Florida Derby showed. I disagree. I think his "miler" breeding showed and will show again in The Derby. On top of that, his odds will still be fairly low (probably close to Destin). I'd need over 20 to 1 to use him. Such is the thinking of a greedy man.

Whitmore: He's got the right breeding (sired by Pleasantly Perfect) and many like his chances; but he has flattened out in the stretch runs of his last three races. Charging to the front or close to the front and then flattening out to lose is a sign that the colt has reached his max distance. Going further is not a recipe for success.

My Man Sam: Again, others really like him. He's a hard closer and a son of Trappe Shot. Trappe Shot is a son of Tapit and I'm not enamored with the Tapit line going 10 furlongs (except for Tapiture and then only on the Belmont track). My Man Sam's speed figures fit the race very well, but I don't think his kick will be explosive at this distance. The Blue Grass was a pretty slow race this year, so the only horse coming out of it that interests me is the winner (Brody's Cause).

So there are the four that I'm unlikely to use. Any one of them could make the top three and it wouldn't shock me. I would be shocked if any of the four win.

So I'm still narrowing down the field. I'm looking for good bloodlines, decent speed figures and long odds. Eight colts remain and I change my mind hourly. Right now I'm thinking Gun Runner (odds too short), Suddenbreakingnews (odds not that great and his losses are bad losses) and Majesto (huge long odds and nice breeding and a HUGE gallop out in the Florida Derby, but his lifetime record is not good at all). But by sunrise I should be leaning towards a few others.

So I like to have 5. I have my top 3. I've tossed 5 and I'm unlikely to use 4. Just picking over the last 8. If Adventist gets in, I'm using him and he'll be very long odds.

Ben Tucker

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04-25-16 10:03AM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

I charted the last 14 years of Derby payouts. It was interesting and I've
made some conclusions. Mostly: Play the superfecta.

Why 14 years? 28 lines on a sheet of paper and two lines per year, so 14
years fit on one page.


Oaks/Derby double is popular with large pools, but the payouts are only
OK. The will-pay is determined far more by the Oaks than the Derby. 2005
Giacomo wins at 50 to 1 and the double pays $595. The following year
Barbaro wins at 6 to 1 and the payout is $890. Mine That Bird wins in 09
at 50 to 1 and the Oaks Double only paid $237. So the Oaks/Derby Double
might be fun, but it's a bad bet. It's the people with the longshot Oaks
winner that do better. Your Derby horse could scratch in the morning and
you'd be out. If you hit the Oaks, take half your net winnings and bet the
nose of your favorite colt. Almost as much fun and usually better math.

Exactas are not the best paying Derby bet. It hit a new low last year
with American Pharoah/Firing Line paying just $27. Generally it pays from
$150 to $400. It has paid low-four-figures a few times, but the longshot
needs to win or both horses in the exacta need to be longshots (which
seldom happens). It peaked in 2005 at $9815 (Giacomo/Closing
Argument...both longshots). In general, the Derby exacta pays far better
than most races. It should because the field is much larger. It's a nice
way to turn $2 into $200 and fine for the casual fan, but it's not the
stuff that dreams are made of.

My view is that a trifecta should pay 10 times the exacta if a typical
mid-odds horse fills the third spot. The Derby does pay that (sometimes
with scary accuracy). The low was, again, last year. It paid $202.
Generally, The Derby trifecta pays around $3000. Remember that, generally,
at least one colt at double-digit odds factors into that trifecta. Also
remember: THEY LIST THE PAYOUTS AT A $2 BET AND NOT THE 50 CENTS THAT IS
NOW AVAILABLE. In general, I find the Derby trifecta hard to hit and not a
real great value. It is, however, great fun to build a 4 or 5 horse box
and hope for the best.

THE BEST VALUE I FOUND WAS THE SUPERFECTA. Again, last year was the low
($634 and that's better than working for a living). In 2003 (Funny
Cide/Empire Maker) it only paid $2795 which is still about the average
trifecta. So one year it paid 3-digits. One year it paid 4-digits. Nine
years it paid FIVE-DIGITS. THREE YEARS IT PAID SIX-DIGITS! In the
supermajority 9 years out of 14, it not only paid five-figures...it paid
mid-five-figures. And it doesn't always need longshots to win nor even get
second. In 2010 (Super Saver/Ice Box...both single-digit odds), it paid
$202,000 with just one 20 to 1 colt in the mix. The minimum bet is $1 and
that is how the payout is reported. Here is the most Derby fun (short of
owning a horse).

The Super High 5 has only been a part of the last 8 Derbies. It did pay
$6658 last year despite the race running totally to form. It paid a sweet
$150,000 in the previous year with Commanding Curve outrunning his long
odds to get second. However, the other six years it went without anybody
having a winning ticket and the pool being carried over to the next day.
Even if somebody had scooped the entire pool, the pools weren't big enough
to properly reward the lone winner. At a 50 cent minimum, it should pay 5
times the superfecta and the pool never gets big enough to do that. In
fact, both 2009 and 2010 had the carryover pool LESS than the paid
superfecta. Until more people play it and the pool exceeds $1,000,000, it
will remain bad math for bettors.

The Derby Day Pick 4 can pay in five figures, but it predicated on all
four legs having the favorite lose. Sometimes (2003, 2004) double digit
odds Derby winners saw only four figure Pick 4 payouts.

The Derby Day Pick 6 is a little too rank of a bull for this cowboy to
ride. 6 races for 14 years is 84 races with infinite nuances. Upon a
cursory glance, it looks like Derby Day is filled with quality competitive
fields and races are won by multiple 10 to 1 shots. More importantly,
EXACTLY HALF OF THE YEARS HAD A PICK SIX CARRYOVER. That means that, on
average, half of my money is going to the next day's winners. Bad bet.

The thing that could save the Pick 6 would be sweet payouts for going 5
out of 6. Occasionally that can get to five-figures, but generally it is
around $1000. Not near enough to justify a fat $400 spread ticket and
especially not generous enough once you factor in large fields...like the
20 horse Derby.

Questions? Objections?

Ben Tucker

Last edited by tuck on 04-25-16 at 10:40AM

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04-25-16 10:06AM
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tuck
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

The $1 Superfecta is where the payouts have the best math. 5 colts in a
box costs $120. That's a lot of money, but not in terms of a Pick Six and
this payout is almost always better (by a factor of 3) than your normal
Pick Six. Using 3 horses in all four spots allows for 4 more horses in the
bottom two spots (1 2 3 with 1 2 3 with 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 with 1 2 3 4 5 6
7...an example using names below) also cost $120. 6 colts in a superfecta
box at $1 cost $360 and that might require a partner. 7 colts in a box
costs $840 and that might require a bank loan and bank loans are not
advisable. I doubt that risking almost a grand for a probable 20 grand
payout is that great of a betting strategy, even if it doesn't require a
bank loan because you just hit the Oaks on Friday. Chasing rainbows is
fine unless it costs you half a rainbow and you might not catch a rainbow
or the one you catch might not be worth all that much. Betting over the
lowest superfecta payout ($634 last year) seems foolhardy.

So the most bang for your Derby buck is a 5 colt $1 superfecta box. Get
partners if you wish and have fun picking your five. I'd suggest 4 likely
contenders and 1 of your best bombs. If you want to get a little more
bang, here is my 2016 Superfecta Ticket:

Destin, Exaggerator, Gun Runner (for the Win spot) with
Destin, Exaggerator, Gun Runner (for the Place spot) with
Destin, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mor Spirit, Majesto, Suddenbreakingnews,
Nyquist (for the Show spot) with
Destin, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mor Spirit, Majesto, Suddenbreakingnews,
Nyquist (for 4th place) cost $120

If Adventist draws in, my greed will force me to dump Nyquist and add him.
If one of these scratches, next on my greedy list is probably the Japanese
colt (Lani) of maybe Shagaf or maybe Trojan Nation or Creator or Outwork or
Brody's Cause. If I was certain enough that Destin and Exaggerator would
run first and second (in either order), I could add almost all of these
other horses and it would cost $144 (for me and partner...$120 feels like
my solo limit...unless Rachel's Valentina wins the Oaks).

Ben Tucker

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05-01-16 09:33PM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Tuck is busy planting potatoes or something, thought I would weigh in.

Liking Mor Spirit and Gun Runner. Creator, My Man Sam and Suddenbreakingnews for late closer to grab third or possibly second. Not on the Destin band wagon yet. Nyquist has had good works, might have to keep him in the mix, if he goes off at 3-1 or 2.5-1 still money to be made.

Probably lots of wheels happening, can cover a lot more combos for less money. Have to include Baffert (Mor Spirit) just based on track record and the fact he has made me the most money of the years.

JH
still studying to do and of course post position always will be a factor

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05-02-16 07:32PM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Long range forecast shows no rain on Friday or Saturday. Fast track means Exaggerator won't be a factor.

Mohaymen, Gun Runner and Mor Spirit have been working well over the CD track.

__________________
JH
Go Phils, got my WS bet on you

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05-03-16 08:42AM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Remember 2014 Derby when a longshot finished second for a $340 exacta? Well, Dallas Stewart is back with another longshot who could hit the board and recreate that big pay day. Tom's Ready is the horse and should go off north of 30-1.

JH
might have to take out a loan for all the bets I will be making

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05-03-16 11:28PM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Tuck is texting me from the tractor telling me that Destin is the horse to back. Then he gets out of the tractor and goes home and emails me that Destin is the ONE.

Tuck needs to get a life. 8 week layoff, hard to keep a horse trained up for that long. Destin is fat and lazy by now.

JH
Probably will have Destin in my bets, just love poking Tuck with a stick

PS post positions tomorrow will decide for me

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05-04-16 08:53PM
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jhcurl
Super Rockchucker

 

Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Post positions are drawn. No big deals, Trojan Nation gets the rail, he was not going to win anyway. Mohaymen gets the 14 post, last before the auxiliary gate. This historically has not been a good spot. 42 horses have been in this gate with just 2 seconds and 3 thirds.

Leaning toward Nyquist, Mor Spirit, Mohaymen for the exacta with Creator, My Man Sam and Creator figuring in the trifecta.

Two cashes in poker tournys this week means I have some extra funds for the Derby. That could be dangerous.

JH
Still not feeling Destin

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