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12-12-13 10:00AM
nelski is offline Click Here to See the Profile for nelski Find more posts by nelski Add nelski to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
nelski
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quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Korea?
KOREA????


EDIT: ah @Alan - just re-read ur posts and see u r tracking men. I'm tracking women. Good posts. TY. ~~n

Am fan of this team. They are hosting the Olys in PyeongChang SK in 2018 and are certainly strongly in the mix. Funding is back on for them and they are more than contenders. I predict they will indeed qualify, and end up in the middle of the pack at Sochi. Not the "minnow of minnows" in my estimation. We'll see. :-)

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Lots of major youth (<21) events. Nice for Murdoch... and us :-D.

Last edited by nelski on 12-12-13 at 10:17AM

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12-12-13 10:10AM
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GER was a tough one to let get away. Up 2 without should be a near certain win at this level. Probably have to birdie out now to qualify. 4-3 will be tiebreak hell. and you will still have to beat one of the top two finishers to qualify, yes? Have to dig into that bag of resilience and determination now.

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12-12-13 10:48AM
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OMG horrible curling by Latvia and Japan in the women's side. Do not be fooled with Japan's standings. Not great performance, in fact, POOR.

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Lots of major youth (<21) events. Nice for Murdoch... and us :-D.

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12-12-13 11:02AM
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quote:
Originally posted by nelski
OMG horrible curling by Latvia and Japan in the women's side. Do not be fooled with Japan's standings. Not great performance, in fact, POOR.


Japan has curled well here, they looked good in their first 2 games, definitely much better than today. Your right though the game with Latvia was just an abomination

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12-12-13 11:11AM
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Stoner
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Fussen Olympic qualifiers

Don't know why there isn't a thread for this yet.

Top 2 men's and women's teams make the Olympics.

Anyhow, the Korean men's team has been the big surprise going 4-0 so far, I had them at the bottom with Finland, they failed to qualify out of Asia for the Worlds, so this has come out of nowhere, all their wins have been fairly easy except for an 8-7 over Germany, assuming they make the top 3 now, will they have what it takes to win a qualy spot and take mens Korean curling to previously unseen heights.

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12-12-13 12:29PM
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most of us are over in the one under USA Curling "Olympic Qualifier Event". Lots of discussion about all teams. Go Korea Go.

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Lots of major youth (<21) events. Nice for Murdoch... and us :-D.

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12-12-13 02:35PM
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Yeah but that's for team US, not as many people go there.

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12-12-13 03:15PM
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youngen
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Actually, the majority of people on here just go to the column on the right that displays most recent posting activity. So plenty of people see it regardless of where they are from or where the thread is located.

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12-12-13 04:28PM
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nelski
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quote:
Originally posted by Stoner
Yeah but that's for team US, not as many people go there.

Well, actually, Stoner, we have no CDN team at this event. But the outcome definitely affects us. China will advance, no doubt, and be a threat. Korea? Who knows. Maybe. Good thread to find out what is happening at the event.
**threads merged. TY G.

Predictions at this point: Men - Korea and dunno Czechs?. Women China and Korea.

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Lots of major youth (<21) events. Nice for Murdoch... and us :-D.

Last edited by nelski on 12-12-13 at 05:49PM

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12-12-13 04:29PM
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Stoner
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quote:
Originally posted by nelski

Well, actually, Stoner, we have no CDN team at this event. But the outcome definitely affects us. China will advance, no doubt, and be a threat. Korea? Who knows. Maybe. Good thread to find out what is happening at the event.

Predictions at this point: Men - Korea and dunno. Women China and Korea.



This thread is for all nations, not just Canada or the US.

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12-12-13 05:19PM
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jhcurl
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Two more wins needed for the US. Nice game against Japan, John looked sharp.

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12-12-13 05:28PM
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The US needs to win 2 and korea to lose out, the wackyness ensues...

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12-12-13 09:33PM
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quote:
Originally posted by nelski

Predictions at this point: Men - Korea and dunno Czechs?. Women China and Korea.



Don't overlook Germany on the women's side and the US on the men's. I see both progressing.

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12-12-13 09:49PM
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Germany should manage to navigate through to the playoffs at least on the womens side, whether or not they can get through japan or china remains to be seen.

The german men could very well take that second spot too. They've knocked off the 3 favorites coming in in succession.

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12-12-13 10:08PM
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Must win game vs Korea for the US. Czechs likely beat Japan, Germany likely beat Finland in the next draw. If the US loses and that happens, they'd be a game behind the 3rd spot, tied with either NZ or France, and they'd need a win by Japan (over Germany) or New Zealand (over Czech) in the final draw to get into a tiebreaker.

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12-12-13 11:20PM
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The scenarios for the US are pretty straightforward:

If the US Wins Out, there are 64 scenarios, 24 put them in the 1-2 game, 32 guarantee them a slot in the final 3, which spot depends on tiebreakers, and the remaining 8 put them in a tiebreaker scenario that could see them ending up 4th (All of these involve Germany winning out and Korea beating France)

1-1:
Only directly eliminated if one of 6 scenarios occur (out of 128), every other scenario provides a tiebreaker, scenarios exist to get into tiebreakers regardless of which game is lost.

0-2:
OUT UNLESS JPN beats CZE, FRA beats NZL, NZL beats CZE, KOR beats FRA and GER beats JPN OR loses to both JPN and FIN (3 scenarios, out in 61)

IF all of that happens, tiebreaker for 3rd place

All 256 remaining scenarios are available at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...dit?usp=sharing

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12-13-13 08:08AM
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There is room for 2 tie-breaker rounds in the draw schedule, so naturally im hoping for a scenario where 3 TB rounds are required

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12-13-13 08:28AM
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Shuster up 3 coming home without - USA!

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12-13-13 08:40AM
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greenroad
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Four tied at 4-2 for top after 6th. To say the last draw is a "must win" is really an understatement.

And none of the top four is playing one of the other top fours.. Therefore if three of the top fours win and the fourth loses...

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Last edited by greenroad on 12-13-13 at 09:15AM

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12-13-13 08:50AM
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Never mind, got the draw 6 results...

Down to 16 scenarios now. Full analysis momentarily.

Okay...here we go...

16 scenarios left

(ASSUMPTION! Tiebreaker requires loss on the ice to be eliminated, however seedings within ties are done on basis of H2H if possible...I do not have LSD results to seed beyond this)

In order of favorability for US:
(Winners in the last draw listed in brackets, remember that the games are US v FIN, CZE v NZL, FRA v KOR, and GER v JPN)

1. (USA,NZL,FRA,JPN) - US emerges as the 1 seed, CZE,GER,KOR,NZL Playoff for 2 and 3 (no clue how this would be done)

2. (USA, NZL, KOR, JPN) - US is the 1 seed (KOR 2 by H2H), CZE, GER, NZL PLayoff for 3 seed

3. (USA,CZE,FRA,JPN) - US is the 2 seed (CZE gets 1 seed by H2H) GER and KOR playoff for 3 seed

4. (USA,NZL,FRA,GER) - US is the 2 seed (GER 1 by H2H), CZE, KOR, NZL PLayoff for 3 seed

5. (USA, CZE, KOR, JPN) - 3 way tiebreaker between USA, CZE, and KOR. All 1-1 H2H, so LSD Determines (I think)

6. (USA, NZL, KOR, GER) - 3 way tiebreaker between USA, KOR, and GER. All 1-1 H2H, so LSD Determines

7. (USA, CZE, FRA, GER) - US is the 3 seed (GER 1 by 2-0 H2H, CZE 2 by 1-1 H2H, USA 3 by 0-2 H2H)

8. (USA, CZE, KOR, GER) - 4 way tie between CZE, GER, KOR, USA. CZE and GER get the 1-2 game by 2-1 H2H, USA and KOR Playoff for 3 spot.

9. (FIN, NZL, FRA, JPN) - 5 Way Tie between CZE, GER, KOR, NZL, USA. GER gets the 1 seed by 3-1 H2H, CZE, KOR, USA, and NZL Playoff to get the 2 and 3 seeds...I'm not sure how that would work (who plays for the 2 spot?), but I know NZL is disadvantaged due to 1-3 H2H record

10. (FIN, NZL, FRA, GER) - GER gets 1 seed, 4 way tie between CZE, KOR, NZL, USA. Playoff for 2 and 3 seeds (again, not sure who plays for the 2 spot)

11. (FIN, CZE, FRA, JPN) - CZE gets 1 seed, GER, KOR, USA tie for 2nd, seeded by LSD due to 1-1 H2H for all

12. (FIN, NZL, KOR, JPN) - KOR gets 1 seed, CZE, GER, NZL, USA tie for 2nd...unclear on the tiebreak here

13. (FIN, CZE, FRA, GER) - GER and CZE play in 1-2 game, USA v Korea in Playoff for 3 seed

14. (FIN, CZE, KOR, JPN) - CZE and KOR play in 1-2 game, USA v GER in Playoff for 3 seed

15. (FIN, NZL, KOR, GER) - GER and KOR play in 1-2 game, USA, NZL, CZE in Playoff for 3 seed, seeded by LSD results due to 1-1 H2H record all around

16. (FIN, CZE, KOR, GER) - CZE, GER, and KOR playoff, USA goes home.

Last edited by AlanMacNeill on 12-13-13 at 09:33AM

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12-13-13 09:29AM
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quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Never mind, got the draw 6 results...

Down to 16 scenarios now. Full analysis momentarily.



i think it doesn't matter....on a full analysis
the us just about have to win

each of the top 4 could be tied after draw 7....if so, they US can only be as high as the tiebreak for #3 spot b/c they'd be 1-2 vs the field...and 2 teams would be 2-1

best they could hope for (i think) is a ger or cze upset loss and then a 3-way tie....where they could be in the 1 v 2 on dsc. but we don't know the dsc. i wish they'd put that in the scoring/stats.

lose....and they have to hope another of the 4-2 teams lose and then they'd likely be in a 3-way tiebreak for the #3 playoff spot

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12-13-13 09:34AM
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not sure how i got logged out for the post above.....

well, i should say 'the best they could hope for' would be to win and the other 3 lose. but, that ain't gonna happen.

win
and you're definitely 'in' the playoffs/tiebreak.
...if only 1 of the others 'lose':
korea: us can't do higher than #3
cze or ger: us would be in the 1 v 2
...if 2 others lose
us in the 1 v 2

lose...and it's messy from 'out' to # tiebreak

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12-13-13 09:38AM
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theOW
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O.c.e.

If I understand things correctly, the USA is still in a world of hurt to make the final 3 and the playoffs.
GER, USA, Kor & CZE are all tied at 4-2 and none of them play each other in today's final RR round.

Terry Kolesar tweeted that if 3 or more teams are tied, the records between them decide.
GER: 2-1
CZE: 2-1
USA: 1-2
KOR: 1-2
After that, Draw Shot Challenge prevails.

Assuming that all 4 teams win later today, GER and CZE are in and KOR and the USA will be the third via DSC?!

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12-13-13 09:41AM
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AlanMacNeill
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quote:
Originally posted by Unregistered
[B]

i think it doesn't matter....on a full analysis
the us just about have to win



Winning is, of course, advised, but so long as one of CZE, KOR, or GER lose their game, the US makes at least a tiebreaker even if they lose.

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12-13-13 09:46AM
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AlanMacNeill
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Does anyone know if the LSD results are available anywhere? I am not finding them

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