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05-10-13 09:01AM
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tuck
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Trials Field

No surprises as the High Performance Committee made its final selections for the Olympic Trials in November.

Face Schuster, with back-to-back bronze National bronze medals will be the fifth team on the Mens side. Face will be with his usual team of Isaacson, Zezel and Landsteiner.

Courtney George, with a bronze and a silver over the last two years, will be the fourth and final team on the Ladies side. Court will have Aileen Sormunen at third and Amanda McLean at second. Monica Walker will play lead. Julie Lilla (herself a last-minute replacement for Amy Hatton-Wright last year) was not selected...she did not have a very good Nationals in Green Bay but remains a good curler.

I was a touch surprised by the selection of Walker, but it does make very good sense. One might think they would go with somebody from the area and experienced on the front end. Molly Bonner was with this team for their World Juniors and Sophie Brorson is in Duluth. Walker, however, was the gal that they picked to be their fifth for that Junior Worlds. She has been one of their top competitors since they were very young and, obviously, a curler that they respect very much.

Ben Tucker

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05-10-13 12:23PM
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I have no idea how the Courtney George team selection worked out. I'm imagining that the HPProgram wasn't impressed by Lilla's Nationals...and it wasn't great. I'm imagining that they consulted with CG about possibly replacing her and came with a list of possible alternatives.

I further imagine that the team is thrilled to be selected and is in the exciting process of planning next year's spiel schedule. With proud big brother, Tyler, also planning...I imagine the team will get so good advice. My advice would be to go to only spiels with a reputation for World Style ice. Playing on straight stuff just ain't very bright...even if it is fast and good. Sorry, Duluth...you need to work on that.

The selection of Face And Friends is not surprise. I feel for the Craig Brown rink. Obviously qualified and successful on many weekends over the last two years, they are just snakebit with horrid luck of late. Still, Face earned it...I think Brownie would admit it.

So there you have some speculation and opinion. Nothing for news or facts. Here's one fact: I'm looking forward to seeing The Trials in person. Ought to be a good show and a good time.

Ben Tucker

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05-25-13 10:09PM
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Since one of the Slams is reserving spots for USA Trials teams of both genders, I suspect that the Trials Teams will be aggressively pursuing points early in the season. Look for all nine to be very busy. Perhaps the best route for points will be in Europe.

Ben Tucker

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05-26-13 06:34PM
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There is certainly reason to be excited about the Women's field for The Trials in Fargo.

Erica Brown-Tetley did well at Worlds. She and her team won (not did well, but actually won) two spiels in Canada last year. They own wins over teams ranked among the top in the world and they all have Olympic experience...just not together.

Cassie Potter always gets us fired up. Junior gold, Junior silver, Women's silver and Olympic experience in Italy. The talent has always been there for this rink. Life has just gotten in the way of dedication some years. A new mother of a healthy baby girl, I think Cassie and all of her team is set really work at it this year.

Allison Pottinger has turned herself into a real skip. Always an excellent hitter, she now looks first to the draw. She and her teammates just missed the World playoffs. Not good at all on the spiel circuit last year...until their third returned from maternity leave.

Most exciting to some and least exciting to others is the Courtney George rink. Pushed into skipping after a decade of being a reliable third, Court took the house by storm. Through playoffs, some decent spiels and Nationals...Court is toting a winning percentage of around 90% as a skip. Now they add Walker at lead. So why might some not be excited about the emergence of a possibly dynamic skip? Not a lot of World experience for this young rink. Their World Juniors (stomped on the Round Robin only to fade in the playoffs) was in Eveleth...very close to home. Their first World Juniors was in Quebec. I don't think any of them have played overseas...maybe Court a game or two when she was the fifth for Cassie in Juniors and in Turin. Teams without overseas experience tend not perform at their best for us...but I might be overstating that point. Plus, they will have lots of time between now and The Trials to head overseas and time between The Trials and The Olympics to gather experience.

Too soon to pick them, but I like our chances in Sochi with any one of these four teams. You might expect me to have a caveat with the Courtney George rink, but I don't think so. If they can get through this field, they should be a contender in Sochi. They would also have two months to continue their growth and gather experience.

Ben Tucker

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05-29-13 11:15PM
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Fifths:

My imagination has some teams coming to Fargo with a fifth. I imagine that some teams will not have a fifth officially named, but have somebody along just in case. Not officially naming a fifth leaves you the option to pick up somebody else for the Olympics. The Fifth is also subject to approval after The Trials by the USCA, so having an unofficial fifth in Fargo would save having to do a lineup change after winning.

It might get a little wild...this Fifth man thing. I could see Craig Brown in the stands to watch his sister and being the unofficial Fifth for a couple of teams. Craig filled in for Chris Plys when the Tyler George rink won the German Masters. Craig is also friendly with the Pete Fenson rink. I imagine that Mr. Brown is also wanted by the Heater McCormick rink after being supportive in their appearance at Worlds. Highest bidder gets him? Nope...first team with an emergency gets him.

I would expect to see Persinger with the Brady Clark rink.

The Ladies might be more of a guessing game. Courtney George and Cassie Potter have both done time as the Fifth at Worlds for various teams...but both are in the field. It wouldn't surprise me to see Lilla in Fargo in case Courtney's rink has an emergency. Amy Hatton-Wright wouldn't shock me either. I suspect that Cassie will have either Laura Rossler or Maureen Stolt on speed dial to call into Fargo should sickness or injury hit. Pottinger will probably keep Tab Peterson's sister Tara close by for emergencies.

When the time grows close, all the teams will consider their options. Playing short handed in front of the NBCSports cameras does not seem like a good option. Seeing who subs in during the cashspiel season might show us who we might expect to see in the stands at Scheel's Arena in Fargo.

There remains some questions about teams already using a Fifth. I doubt that those questions are serious. The USCA certainly does not want a team to play short on TV because they were denied a Fifth.

Ben Tucker

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07-14-13 10:39AM
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It is disappointing that the Abbottville Slam has decided to hold only one spot for a USA Mens and one spot for a USA Womens team. Much cooler if it were two teams each...exactly twice as cool...like the original plan. Still, they keep the field small for that one. Extremely small. I wonder why so small?

I wonder which second on the Ladies side will rise to the top in Fargo? Jessica Schultz (Team Erika Brown-Tetley) shined in Green Bay and was a significant factor in her team winning the gold. Yet Jessica was unimpressive at Worlds...the only member of the team to be unimpressive. Which event (Worlds or Nationals) showed where Jessica's game is at right now? I suspect that we'll see the Jessica that was impressive in Green Bay.

I further suspect that we'll see Amanda McLean (Team Courtney George) establish herself as one of front end players in the nation. Natalie Nicholson (Team Allison Pottinger) was one of the top leads in the world for many years. Her promotion to second has gone well nationally, but she has yet to establish herself at the World Elite level. Jackie Lemke (Team Cassie Potter) has struggled with consistency over the last couple of years, but with good reason. Childbirth was an important interruption and coming back was not as automatic as one might imagine...then Cassie took a turn at childbirth and Jackie did not return to top form...yet.

Of the four Womens seconds, I think McLean will be the star in Fargo. All four are in the running and none of them have separated themselves from the rest in recent years...but I like McLean's upside. Increased exposure to coaching could be that last step to becoming a dominant second...or, perhaps, really mess her up.

For the team title, I'm liking Team Cassie Potter for my early favorite. Lots of curling between now and Fargo, but they are my early pick.

Ben Tucker

PS For the Canadian Trials, my early favorite is Team McEwen. Their field isn't even set yet, but I really like their chances. On the Ladies side in Winnipeg, I like Homan over Jones. Should Homan make it to Sochi, they will steamroll the field.

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07-14-13 03:31PM
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I'm also extremely interested in watching Team Clark's Mens team play in Fargo. We know what we have in Brady...solid, capable and best under pressure. What we do not know is the relative strength of the front end. Will they be the professional Kings Of Ice that rolled their team to a 5-0 start of the Green Bay Nationals round robin against the top seeds...or the Kings Of The Half-shot that finished the round robin and showed up at Worlds?

I'm thinking, based mostly off the game against Scotland at Worlds, that the professional attitudes will show up and the half-shots will not.

My early favorite for The Trials in Fargo (and it might surprise you and they won't be the choice for most) is Team Heater McCormick. Lots of time and lots of games before the final predictions and eventual outcomes, so I'll probably change my mind 100 times.

I consider Heater the most dynamic skip in the field. Perhaps not the best, but the most dynamic. Should the ice start off a touch green and outrageously swingy, Heater and Fenson are best positioned to take the early advantage. Swingy and green for the early round robin has the been the trend over the last three years at Nationals. Unless the Fargo club can really help out the ice crew with games in the arena, I do not see the trend stopping now.

Mostly, I will be watching Bill Stopera in the early cashspiel season. As he goes, so will the team. Sax Sather is stuck in a field or brilliant seconds and must find a way to hold his own to keep Stopera with makeable shots...but it might be all about Stop.

Also interesting to me will be how often and in what situations Team McCormick uses The Free Guard Zone Rub...now being called the Wiegel. I suspect that a tight center guard will almost always be answered with The Rub by this rink. Gemmell certainly has the talent and it will give the team breaks in a couple of ends from Heater's unabashed aggression by having an open centersheet.

Ben Tucker

PS Most of these players and all of these skips are much better than I ever was. I'm just trying to promote the discussion and maintain the interest. Please take no offense.

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07-14-13 07:12PM
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Tuck, I hope along with those who've signed the petition link below we won't have to go through this odds-picking Twister Game to select our Worlds and Olympic teams for another year.

http://www.change.org/petitions/uni...f-championships

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09-20-13 07:41AM
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Jessica Schultz's blog entry is featured on the USOC webpage. It's a good read.

Ben Tucker

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10-16-13 11:55AM
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Time marches on. Getting close to time for Willy to post some odds on The Trials.

Good luck with this one, Willy. I don't see any real favorite or any real dark horse in either field.

I imagine that Erika Brown-Tetley, based on being the defending champ and their points lead, has to be considered the favorite for the Ladies...but is not a lock to win. I mean; I wouldn't bet the mortgage money on them. Courtney has to be the longshot, but I wouldn't bet too much against her.

That leaves Cassie and Allison. I'm still thinking that Team Potter is going to win this thing. Willy might put all four teams at 5 to 1.

Same story for the Guys. Heater, Pete and Face have all had mediocre results this year...so you can't bet on them with any great confidence. Brady was the dark horse/longshot until they beat Cotter/Morris...now they might be one of the favorites. That leaves Chris/Ty...who looked good early and OK through St. Paul and lousy last weekend. I imagine that is good enough to make them the favorites...but I'm sticking with Heater and The Ducklings...so far...but I'm not betting a lot.

Will Willy The Wise put them all at 6 to 1? I wouldn't blame him.

Ben Tucker

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10-18-13 03:27PM
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Willy The Greedy is going to give us all 3 to 1 on the Men and 2 to 1 on the Women. Where is the generosity?

Jessica Shultz's blog is featured on the USOC webpage.

Ben Tucker

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11-01-13 11:29AM
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Draw schedule with match ups now posted to the USCA site. Teams are reseeded after the first half of the RR.

Shuster gets the first round bye, no byes on the Women's side.

Remember to lobby Tuck on which games get webcast.

JH
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11-01-13 03:24PM
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quote:
Originally posted by jhcurl
Remember to lobby Tuck on which games get webcast.
JH
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Tuck has no power.

-BA

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11-01-13 03:40PM
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Good news is that USA teams have to win at Fargo [unlike cash spiels]

Last edited by dbsdbs on 11-01-13 at 07:04PM

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11-01-13 11:11PM
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So I'm a little baffled by the men's draw. Five teams takes 5 draws to do the first RR - makes sense. But then there are only 3 draws listed for the second RR. Can someone explain how that works? Does it mean that they're going to drop 2 teams after the first RR? What happens if all teams are 2-2?

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11-02-13 01:18AM
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Yeah, here's the deal:

It is in the rules. They do the first round robin and then re-seed for the second time through.

It might minimize a mathematically eliminated team from playing a contender in the final draw. Actually, it shows a fair amount of intelligence, experience and foresight. I wish I could say that it was my idea, but the lie would eventually come back to haunt me.

So, for instance:

Two teams are going great...two teams are still pretty much alive...one team bombed the first round robin. The top teams will play that bottom team early in the second round robin. They will face each other at the end.

While not curing the inherent random unfairness of round robins, it does attempt to minimize any unfairness.

Ben Tucker

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11-04-13 01:38PM
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Nice article on Team Clark posted on the main page of the USOC site.

One problem: It is written by a guy from Green Bay who makes his living writing nice things about TheEvilPackers (all one word).

Some curling will be shown tonight on ESPN as the Monday Night Football crew is in town to do the Bears/EvilPackers game. Rumor has it that Terri Kolesar blows the Final on the MNF tournament by choking a sweep call. Must see TV.

Ben Tucker
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11-04-13 03:19PM
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quote:
Originally posted by tuck
Yeah, here's the deal:

It is in the rules. They do the first round robin and then re-seed for the second time through.

It might minimize a mathematically eliminated team from playing a contender in the final draw. Actually, it shows a fair amount of intelligence, experience and foresight. I wish I could say that it was my idea, but the lie would eventually come back to haunt me.

So, for instance:

Two teams are going great...two teams are still pretty much alive...one team bombed the first round robin. The top teams will play that bottom team early in the second round robin. They will face each other at the end.

While not curing the inherent random unfairness of round robins, it does attempt to minimize any unfairness.

Ben Tucker



Still doesn't make sense after thinking about this for days. No team can be mathematically eliminated after the first draw of the RR. Are they resetting the match ups after each game in the second draw? When does a team get eliminated? Are all teams NOT playing a double RR? Sure sounds that way to me unless they are counting the TBs as part of the second RR draw.

JH
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11-05-13 10:11AM
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bumping spam

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11-05-13 10:57AM
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bumping spam by creating my own spam

How about that Rod Ford guy. Is he cool or what!

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11-05-13 10:52PM
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Tuck says that Trials is double RR with reseed after 1st RR -- I agree, that is what USCA has said.
JH says the posted draw is confusing as it does not appear to provide for 10 rounds of play as required by double RR - I agree with this too.
So why cannot the draw be clarified to show all 10 rounds of mens play? Is that too much to ask of USCA?

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11-05-13 11:18PM
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Allow me to try again. I don't write all that well nor all that clearly.

It only takes 8 draws for a 5 team round robin. You are on team 1...you need to play teams 2,3,4 and 5...4 games...and you need to do it twice.

As for waiting to reseed after the first gothrough:

One of the unfair vagrancies of a round robin format is playing a team that has been eliminated mathematically late in the schedule. Imagine a 10 team league that is playing a double round robin. If you reseed the schedule after the first gothrough, you can schedule the leaders to play last. This attempts to limit the impact.

While, most likely, the impact of reseeding after the first five draws will have limited impact on the fairness of the round robin...I appreciate the attempt.

Men go Sunday 1 and 7...Monday at noon and 7...Tuesday at noon...Wednesday at noon and 7...Thursday at 9am. Eight draws. Tiebreakers are scheduled up to 2 draws. The Ladies need six draws plus tiebreakers.

Now ya'll may think that the reseeding of the Mens and Ladies fields after the halfway point is overthinking things, but you can't deny that they are trying to do the best they can with the draw.

Far more important in the grand scheme of things: If they need two tiebreaker games for the Men, I don't have to announce it for TESN/USCA. I've been given that morning off. That means that the Drinking Lamp will be lit up on Thursday night for me...me and a bunch of poor souls who Olympic dream just died. Methinks that I will be buying. If you see us, please make a generous cash donation.

Ben Tucker
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11-05-13 11:37PM
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TUCK-IS-STRA-TOR!!!!!

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11-06-13 05:42AM
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My buddy, John Benton, has been hired by NBC to do color for the Finals. Atta boy, 'Nilla. Good thing you are with us at TESN for some of the round robin so we can coach you up and get you in shape.

Time to stroll over to Willy's lines and make your picks, people. There are too many people that I like in the field. Tough not to cheer for everybody, so I guess I'll cheer for everybody.

The ice nerds should be getting close to done by tonight.

Ben Tucker

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11-06-13 09:24AM
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round robin

quote:
Originally posted by tuck
Allow me to try again. I don't write all that well nor all that clearly.

It only takes 8 draws for a 5 team round robin. You are on team 1...you need to play teams 2,3,4 and 5...4 games...and you need to do it twice.

As for waiting to reseed after the first gothrough:

One of the unfair vagrancies of a round robin format is playing a team that has been eliminated mathematically late in the schedule. Imagine a 10 team league that is playing a double round robin. If you reseed the schedule after the first gothrough, you can schedule the leaders to play last. This attempts to limit the impact.

While, most likely, the impact of reseeding after the first five draws will have limited impact on the fairness of the round robin...I appreciate the attempt.

Men go Sunday 1 and 7...Monday at noon and 7...Tuesday at noon...Wednesday at noon and 7...Thursday at 9am. Eight draws. Tiebreakers are scheduled up to 2 draws. The Ladies need six draws plus tiebreakers.

Now ya'll may think that the reseeding of the Mens and Ladies fields after the halfway point is overthinking things, but you can't deny that they are trying to do the best they can with the draw.

Far more important in the grand scheme of things: If they need two tiebreaker games for the Men, I don't have to announce it for TESN/USCA. I've been given that morning off. That means that the Drinking Lamp will be lit up on Thursday night for me...me and a bunch of poor souls who Olympic dream just died. Methinks that I will be buying. If you see us, please make a generous cash donation.

Ben Tucker
Need to start stretching out the vocal chords




It actually takes 5 draws to complete a 5 team round robin. Tuck is correct in that each team only plays four games in the first go-around...the part that everybody forgets about is that each draw has to have a team with a bye, thus causing the extra draw time. So to play out a double round-robin, in effect, would require 10 draw times. These teams are so equal I could see a 5 way tie at 4-4.

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