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Manitoba Legend
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Chelsea Carey draws the Short Straw

Draw just released for Roar of the Rings Olympic Trials, Dec. 1-8, 2013 in Winnipeg.

Even though two mens teams and two womens teams have to earn their way into this tourney, organizers have simply called them Team 7 + Team 8.

Local qualifier Chelsea Carey drew the short straw, getting into MONSTER BATTLES right off the hop. Opening draw she's pitted against Jennifer Jones. In her second draw, she's got Rachel and the wolf-pak.

WOW! Is that bad luck or what?

Actually, I think Chelsea has at least a 50/50 chance to rock JJ in the opener. JJ is a notoriously slow starter and prior Olympic Trials have not been her cup of tea. Jennifer will wax poetic about getting off to a good start but she'll couch her comments by saying its all about the finish and qualifying for the playoff.

If Carey can TKO Jones in draw 1 and somehow muster up some amazing shots to dethrone the Queen of Mean in 2nd draw, she'll be off to the races, probably needing only 2 more wins in her final 5 r-r games to get a Q-spot. 4-3 should make the playoff, 5-2 definitely will.

If you're wondering JJ and Homan don't play til near the end of the week. The draw is up on the Roar of the Rings site.

Here's the FreePress article . . .

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/br...-204904371.html

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Old Post 04-26-13 07:49PM
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Chelsea has a really good track record against Rachel so if she can get past Jenniffer than she has a really good chance to get off to good start

at the very least I predict a 1-1 start for her

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Old Post 04-26-13 07:56PM
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Manitoba Legend
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quote:
Originally posted by Unregistered
Chelsea has a really good track record against Rachel so if she can get past Jenniffer than she has a really good chance to get off to good start

at the very least I predict a 1-1 start for her



By the same token if she gets hammered by both Jones & Homan, she'll need to win 4 of her final 5 r-r games to qualify. Thats a tall order, even with the top seeds out of the way. Probably affects her confidence moving forward as well.

If she goes 0-2 out of the gate she might be a bit shell-shocked unless those games were winnable games that turned on a burnt rock or a pic, somesuch.

I suspect the biggest match of the week will be Jones vs. Homan, which might represent an opportunity for Homan to knock JJ out of the playoffs. If JJ goes into that game at 2-2, a loss to Homan will definitely put JJ & co. on the precipice.

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Old Post 04-26-13 08:59PM
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doubletakeout
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There is no "short straw" in this event - every single game is a doozie, and rightfully so.

In fact, Carey might be delighted with her draw - J.M. Menard had some brilliant comments about a similar situation he faced at this year's Brier. You want to play these top teams right off the bat, because these are games that you are "expected" to lose and you're catching the teams right when they're also adjusting to the ice and the rocks and the new venue. These are prime conditions for a minor upset!

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Old Post 04-26-13 11:16PM
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tuck
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I agree with most of the comments so far. Yeah, the "short straw" isn't all that short. Sometimes playing the top seeds early can be a good thing. You would have certainly wanted to play Kevin Martin early in this year's Brier. They were rolling pretty good in the last half.

One thing I will strongly disagree with: If Carey loses her opening two games, it will be difficult for her to make the playoffs. I just don't see it that way.

It looks to me like this is a two-horse-race...Jones and Homan. Next on the list would be Carey. The remaining teams look to be a notch below the top two and a half of a notch below Carey.

It's curling and anything can happen, but:

Carey dropping the first two games against the top two seeds and then running the table would not be surprising. In fact, I think it could be expected. Maybe I'm ranking that team higher than most.

Asked to pick all of her games right now, how would pick them? I'd pick losses to Jones and Homan...with wins against all others.

But I am trying to make a minor point. It is a wonderful field and we will be treated to some wonderful games. Lots of talent.

Ben Tucker

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Old Post 04-27-13 08:06PM
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I think at this point you almost expect Jennifer Jones to have trouble navigating thru the 7 game round-robin. While she can suppress just about any foe, she's also the most vulnerable against weaker and mid-level teams. Homan is a total monster vs. the weaker and mid-carded fawns, rarely losing.

Tuck opines that Carey is the 3rd predator in the field but I think he forgets how good Lawton can be when her team is totally on, and that Nedohin is still a force despite her eccentricities.

Homan will be a dominant favourite in Winnipeg.

The Mens field will not have a dominant favourite. I suspect Glen Howard will be the betting-line favourite with Stoughton, Jacobs and Martin closely behind.

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Old Post 04-27-13 08:33PM
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Well I hope that Jenn's reputation for coming on strong at the end of an event holds. She's certainly going to need it on Thurs. Lawton (who's always a challenge for Team Jones) at 8AM then Homan in the evening. Similar situation for most of the top men's teams on Friday, except for Martin who gets team 7 and 8. Good news is one of those teams could very well be Jacobs. Wonder why they scheduled an 8AM draw on Thurs. and Fri? Could easily have pushed everything back by an hour. 7PM wouldn't be too late for the evening draw.

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Old Post 04-28-13 11:24AM
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quote:
Originally posted by iCurl
Well I hope that Jenn's reputation for coming on strong at the end of an event holds. She's certainly going to need it on Thurs. Lawton (who's always a challenge for Team Jones) at 8AM then Homan in the evening. Similar situation for most of the top men's teams on Friday, except for Martin who gets team 7 and 8. Good news is one of those teams could very well be Jacobs. Wonder why they scheduled an 8AM draw on Thurs. and Fri? Could easily have pushed everything back by an hour. 7PM wouldn't be too late for the evening draw.


Solid analysis. JJ probably needs to come out of the chute 4-1 in order to withstand potential losses to Lawton and Homan on Thursday.

For some reason Lawton's front end turns into animals vs. Jones. Sherri Singler usually hammers Officer in their annual big girl contests and Krasner gets really juiced up to whip Askin in head to head action. That is a bad mix for KT Lawes as she usually plays better than S. Anderson but when her front end gets over-powered she'll be facing high degree of difficulty with most of her stones. If she can't significantly overpower Anderson, Jones will be in jackpot situations almost every end.

Even though Jones and Homan will be odd-on favourites there's no question that most observers don't expect Jones to be able to stay with Homan for more than a few ends. HUGE DAY FOR JJ.

Even if she qualifies after losing two on Thursday she'll be fodder for her playoff opponents, particularly Homan and Lawton.

Lawton is trying to ride the Kleibrink and Bernard wave where a team thats never won a national womens championship becomes our Olympic qualifier. Jones, Homan and Kelly Scott will try to prevent that from happening.

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Old Post 04-28-13 11:35AM
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Its a tough start but at this event there really is no easy road. Some might single out Middaugh as the weak link but she has been in the trend of starting seasons out really strong and if that trend continues...well who knows? we might just see another veteran stun the country and win the trials.

Some may say sherry has no shot but i dont know to many people that gave cheryl the chance last year and in my oppinion sherry has a better team with her and is a superior player ..whats held her back over the years have been her nerves. It is for that reason that she might get close and lose again or..maybe this will be the time she finally wins the big one(if she gets the chance).

Chelsey is who I would love to see win the whole thing. She is fast building a resuptation/resume of close but not close enough..much like sherry middaugh. I guess the dream final for me would be middaugh/carey and then in that scenario i wouldnt really care who won.

Lawton is someone who has the tools to beat everyone there and she can definately win but , again her mental strength fails her when it matters most..case and point the saskatchewan final this year. I would also speculate that this will be the final event - win or lose for sherry anderson. Stefanie will probably ask her to leave no matter how this turns out.

I dont think nedohin will factor here..I know its dangerous to write them off but ..I just cant see them winning the trials, they have to beat to mant top level teams in a row and i dont think they can.

The 2 teams that will get through qualifying are interesting. I think kelly Scott will factor in for sure and get through and then what she does at trials is anyone's guess. People thought she'd be back at full force with jeanna on board but she actually had one of her worst seasons in recent memory so who knows

I was hoping colleen and the team could get the points they needed but sadly they didnt ..oh well at least we got to see them one least time. I cant really see them continuing on again

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