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03-22-17 12:19PM
curlky is offline Click Here to See the Profile for curlky Click here to Send curlky a Private Message Find more posts by curlky Add curlky to your buddy list Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
curlky
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USA Women & 2018 Olympic Qualifying

I looked at the current standings, and upcoming games, and took educated guesses at the results for the next 2 rounds. For interest, I assumed that the US women would lose both their games. I just also assumed that the playoff results would fall based upon how the standings did, and settled ties by the DSC results as of today. Here are how things look for the 2018 Olympics for the women based upon my educated guesses.

23 Canada
23 Switzerland
18 Russia
16 Sweden
15 Scotland
13 Germany
12 Korea*
12 Japan
11 United States
6 Denmark
5 Czech Republic
4 Italy
2 China
2 Finland

* Korea auto-qualifies as the host nation

So it looks like if the US loses both of its upcoming games, then Japan would get the 7th spot despite not making the worlds this year.

Realistically, the US are not likley to beat the SUI team, neither are the Koreans, but since the US and Korea play, if the US wins that game, then they will likley qualify for the Olympics, but if they lose, then the Japanese would qualify.

While I would hope for better, I will take a single head to head game for the US ladies to Olympic qualify.


EDIT #1:
I assumed these results will happen (team on left wins)
SWE CHN
CAN ITA
SUI USA
GER SCO
KOR USA
GER CZE
SWE RUS
CAN DEN
ITA DEN
RUS CHN
SCO CZE
SUI KOR

This includes CZE Losing twice. If they win either or both games, then it gets more complicated.

Last edited by curlky on 03-22-17 at 12:24PM

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03-22-17 01:06PM
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AlanMacNeill
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Yeah, that's about right.

However, remember, this isn't "Get to 7th or don't play at the Olympics", it's "Get to 7th or play as the top seed in the Olympic Qualifier Tournament, which awards 2 berths".

So it's not the end of the world. That's how the US Men got there last Olympics...is that something to be avoided if possible? Yes...but this week isn't the end of the world if they don't make it...they'd be playing in a tournament that they should, frankly, be heavily favored in.

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03-22-17 01:39PM
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misty1
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quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Yeah, that's about right.

However, remember, this isn't "Get to 7th or don't play at the Olympics", it's "Get to 7th or play as the top seed in the Olympic Qualifier Tournament, which awards 2 berths".

So it's not the end of the world. That's how the US Men got there last Olympics...is that something to be avoided if possible? Yes...but this week isn't the end of the world if they don't make it...they'd be playing in a tournament that they should, frankly, be heavily favored in.



it depends who'd be there frankly. but i dont think they'll have to worry about it anyway

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03-23-17 12:05AM
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AK267
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knock on wood....

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03-23-17 12:16AM
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AK267
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quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
Yeah, that's about right.

However, remember, this isn't "Get to 7th or don't play at the Olympics", it's "Get to 7th or play as the top seed in the Olympic Qualifier Tournament, which awards 2 berths".

So it's not the end of the world. That's how the US Men got there last Olympics...is that something to be avoided if possible? Yes...but this week isn't the end of the world if they don't make it...they'd be playing in a tournament that they should, frankly, be heavily favored in.


=================================


On the surface, I agree but if you go to the "last chance" tournament it's feels like putting all of your eggs in one basket. One bad week of funk/fluke and it will be like Lucy pulling the football away...OUCH.

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03-23-17 12:25AM
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Team Roth beat Paetz for the second time in three months to get themselves to 5-5 and into a 3-way tie for 5th place.

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03-23-17 01:25AM
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curlky
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Big win for Roth. Lot of games left still, but that goes along way to help get the US an Olympic birth.

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03-23-17 08:08AM
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AlanMacNeill
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According to TeamUSA.com, the 6-5 record Roth accumulated, although not good enough to make the playoffs (one game short...), was good enough to secure qualification.

So, we now turn our attention to how good Shuster's gotta be to ensure the Men are there as well.

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03-23-17 09:07AM
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BDure
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Registered: Feb 2016
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quote:
Originally posted by AlanMacNeill
According to TeamUSA.com, the 6-5 record Roth accumulated, although not good enough to make the playoffs (one game short...), was good enough to secure qualification.

So, we now turn our attention to how good Shuster's gotta be to ensure the Men are there as well.



Why wouldn't she make the tiebreaker if the Czech Republic comes back and beats Scotland? Three teams at 6-5. Do they eliminate one team with head-to-head records?

But yet, that wraps up Olympic qualification quite comfortably.

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03-23-17 09:18AM
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AlanMacNeill
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quote:
Originally posted by BDure


Why wouldn't she make the tiebreaker if the Czech Republic comes back and beats Scotland? Three teams at 6-5. Do they eliminate one team with head-to-head records?



Yep, that is exactly what they do now. The WCF promulgated a rule last season that there would only be one draw's worth of tiebreakers, so a 3 way tie for one slot is seeded by H2H within the 3 teams (LSD results if H2H results in an insolvable tie at 1-1 for all teams), and only the top 2 teams in that seeding playoff.

The US is 3rd or worse in any potential H2H tiebreaker, so out of luck.

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03-23-17 10:14AM
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Now that the round robins is done, here are the updated OQ standings. These can be adjusted slightly depending on how teh womens playoffs go. However, who qualifies will not change who makes the Olympics, as those 4 teams are already solidly in.

23 Canada#
20 Russia#
20 Switzerland
17 Scotland#
16 Sweden#
15 United States
13 Korea*
12 Japan
8 Germany
6 Denmark
4 Czech Republic
4 Italy
2 China
2 Finland

#Total after round robin, playoffs will slightly change order
*Qualifies as host

So congratulations Team Roth. Not the outcome you wanted, but good enough to keep the Olympic goal for USA alive.

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03-23-17 10:22AM
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biterbar
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Well it's great we qualified for the Olympics and finished with a winning record, but dang it, we were so close on a couple of games that could have got us closer to the stand.

1) Losing to Scotland by allowing steals in the 10th and 11th ends. It happens, it was against Eve Muirhead, but what a tough loss.

2) Against Canada in the 6th end there was a draw for one and a two stone lead in a very tight game. The double for multiple points crashed on a guard for a three stone swing and a 2 point loss. We were playing well, up two was huge.

3)Germany steals the 10th for the win. Two wins it, a score gets you to an extra. A loss to a lesser team.

4) Russia, played well except for an incredibly poor 5th end and gave up 4. Followed with steal in the 6th to lose by 2.

5) Last night against the Swiss they had a lead of two in the ninth and could draw for a lead of three. They tried a soft come around for two, gave up the steal and went to the 10th up 6-5. After Scotland and Germany I would have taken the one in the ninth.

6)Beat Sweden, played Canada right to the end, should have beaten Scotland, had one bad end against the Russians, we are close. This was the best outing I can remember in a while on the woman's side. I think we have a bright future moving forward with three strong teams in the mix.

Great showing ladies!

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03-23-17 12:00PM
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Gerry
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Definitely some what-ifs this week, but a solid showing for a young and developing team. They didn't let the setbacks kill their confidence and rebounded with important wins. Clinching the Olympics berth against a tough field is something to celebrate.

It's been a long time for a team not with a veteran/experienced skip to show this kind of result at Worlds, thinking back to 2005 when Cassie (Johnson) Potter made the final. Since then (and several years before that), it's been the veterans who have led the charge with a variation of Brown/McCormick/Pottinger/Lank as experienced leaders.

Nina looked really good out there calling the game and throwing the last rock. Definitely some room for growth with this team as they should take a lot of positives out of this week.

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