Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
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The Derby is over so now the talk will turn to the winning of the Triple Crown. Will there be a first time TC winner since 1978? Only Am Pho has the chance.

Looks like the top 3 from the Derby will head to the Preakness. I expect some of the closers (Keen Ice, Danzig Moon, et al) to skip it and wait for the longer Belmont.

JH

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I don't think AP is going to do it. Of course it will go off as the favorite at the Preakness, but I didn't think AP looked all that dominant in the Derby. Especially with that slow pace. Just a feeling I have.

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Just realized, I will be at the stupid USCA board meeting for the Preakness. Somehow I don't think it will be as fun as being at Bucks County CC for the Derby. They gave out mint julips to all that were there. I don't see that happening next weekend.

JH
what is the drink for the Preakness?

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quote:

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Originally posted by jhcurl
Just realized, I will be at the stupid USCA board meeting for the Preakness. Somehow I don't think it will be as fun as being at Bucks County CC for the Derby. They gave out mint julips to all that were there. I don't see that happening next weekend.

JH
what is the drink for the Preakness?

---

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Jeff - Its the Black Eyed Susan or a Natty Boh.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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I'm going with Ahh Chocolate in today's Black Eyed Susan, but I'll be using Danessa Deluxe as well in my multirace bet and I'll be boxing those two in the exacta (and tossing in longshot Keen Pauline just for fun). Ahh Chocolate is my pick, however.

For tomorrow's Preakness, I'll be boxing Firing Line and Divining Rod in the exacta. I'm torn between the two. As of right now, my pick is Divining Rod because I think all of the Kentucky Derby horses went all-out in that stretch run and will come up empty. Firing Line looks best of those, but I'm going with Divining Rod. Not a great horse, but he's pretty dang good and he's fresh.

Ben Tucker
Official Handicapper of Curlingzone.com

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I had American Pharaoh, Dortmund, Tale of Verve, and Firing Line all boxed for the $1 Ex/Tri/Sfc. My faith in Joel Rosario was rewarded, and the exacta paid $62, so I made a net profit of $2. Not much, but I'll always take a win over a loss. Always frustrating though when your horses come in 1st, 2nd, and 4th...ha ha.

My brother hit the tri, paid a nice $492. Not bad considering the odds and the small field.

Again, as it was when I hit the Preakness big in 2013 with Oxbow, I don't understand how these good horses with good jockeys go off with such high odds. Tale of Verve in this case. I mean, obviously the Derby winner is going to be the favorite, and there is a lot more casual betting than normal, but still.

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Rosario is a great jockey, but I think we'll end up stopping short of calling Tale Of Verve a good horse. Like other Stewart trained trifecta-makers (Golden Soul, Commanding Curve) I don't think he'll place in a graded stakes ever again. (all three, by the way, owned by that Canadian that owns the diamond mine) I think we'll eventually see Tale Of Verve finishing second as an indictment on the entire field. Firing Line may be the exception. He really did not take to the mud and rain.

The Belmont will be a fun one. We'll have a vulnerable favorite. We'll have an 11 horse field. I think all 11 have a decent shot at hitting the board.

Mostly we'll see the return of Keen Ice...the racehorse of all real curlers. He's bred to run all day. He's probably fast enough. His workouts since The Derby have been pretty good, so I think he's healthy and fit.

Mubtaahij's works have been very good. Bookies have him at 12 to 1. They have Keen Ice at 25 to 1. From his good stretch run in The Derby, Frosted is going to be the pick of many. Vegas has him at 5 to 1 and American Pharoah at even money.

Ben Tucker

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Agreed, it's going to be a fun one for sure.

Yeah, I was disappointed with Firing Line, but it just wasn't his day. Funny thing is I was actually in that storm earlier in the afternoon before it hit Pimlico and mucked up the field. I was just about 100 miles or so due West of Baltimore.

Hopefully American Pharoah's owners don't go on a public whining campaign if a rested horse beats him, like what happened last year. I liked those guys, and I understood their obvious disappointment, but it was childish to say the least, apology or not.

I'm definitely liking Keen Ice and Frosted to be in the mix, not sure on my fourth horse yet but I'll have American Pharoah in there. Hopefully he'll finish 3rd or 4th behind my other horses, bring the purse without spoiling the payout. Either way, I'll probably throw a buck or two on him to win just in case...not for the payout, it would be cool to have a souvenir ticket of a Triple Crown winner.

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Another Curlin baby heads to the Belmont Stakes. Conquest Curlinate has been added as a probable runner. So there is the exacta and tri box for us curlers - Keen Ice, Frosted, Conquest Curlinate.

Now we need Tuck to do some research on this new runner.

JH

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I don't need to research.

Conquest Curlinate comes off a nice 2nd place in the Peter Pan. He was closing hard from well off the pace...he just didn't quite catch Made From Lucky. Tonalist came out of the Peter Pan last year to win the Belmont. I think its runner up also finished in the money.

Conquest Curlinate has some wild owners. One is builder of robots for surgery. The other is Looch. Looch is a Brooklyn/Italian/Vegas/New Jersey stereotype. Hard gambler. He tweeted that his horse will be in the Belmont before the trainer even knew (Amoss).

I think Vegas has his early odds at 33 to 1. Good chance to hit the board. Not out of the question for him to win. I don't like the dam side of his pedigree near as much as I like Keen Ice's pedigree, but the horse is fairly fast and should get the distance. Looch is saying that they are going to send him to the lead. With American Pharoah in the field, I hope Tom Amoss can talk some sense into him.

American Pharoah wins by running the first 6 furlongs in a blistering 1:11 and then settles into his exhausted cruising speed. He comes home slow, but he comes home. The way to beat him is to grind. 24 second 1/4s and it will look like you're flying at the end. Keen Ice has that style.

Ben Tucker
not stumped on this one

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Oops. Mixed 2 horses into 1. Conquest Curlinate did finish a hard-closing 2nd in the Peter Pan and the Illinois Derby. However, it is War Story that is owned by Looch and trained by Amoss. CC is owned by Conquest Stables (rich couple from Chicago who name most of their horses Conquest Something) and trained by Mark Casse (leading trainer in Canada who trains all of Conquest Stables' horses).

Dumb mistakes. My bad. Easy to keep them separate because of the Conquest name. Feeling a little stupid here.

Ben Tucker
hoping Gerry doesn't fire me from my handicapping job

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My very early opinion is that "big sandy" will take the measure of AmPho. The track will bog him down in the stretch and horses will fly by him.

On a related note, Tuck might make a trip to Belmont the prior weekend to the stakes to take in some races. That will be his first exposure to live racing in 30 years. Dude, there is nothing better than standing at trackside and yelling at the horses and jockeys. It is a rush. Of course the $8 beers are not really a rush.

Go to the paddock, watch the horses. See the post parade. Hang out with the unwashed masses that is Belmont on a normal day. Watch the planes landing at LaGuardia. All a great time.

JH
If Tuck does not go, he is dead to me

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An Update on Tuck making a trip to Belmont. Not going to happen. He flies in today and back out on Saturday. Something rain causing a problem with planting potatoes. He still is maintaining the sham that he is a farmer.

For the Belmont stakes, think I will head to the casino race book and watch the day from there. Gives me a chance to bet the undercard without battling 90,000 fans/drunks.

JH
Phils have to work harder to make that 100 loss season, only on pace for 90.

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Here they are, post positions and M/L odds for the Belmont Stakes.
PP horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds
1. Mubtaahij (126) Ortiz Jr./de Kock 10-1
2. Tale of Verve (126) Stevens/Stewart 15-1
3. Madefromlucky (126) Castellano/Pletcher 12-1
4. Frammento (126) Smith/Zito 30-1
5. American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 3-5
6. Frosted (126) Rosario/McLaughlin 5-1
7. Keen Ice (126) Desormeaux/Romans 20-1
8. Materiality (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 6-1

So, the first decision to be made is whether American Pharoah wins or not. If you think he wins then there is very little money to be made without betting large amounts. If you think he does not win then does he hit the board? AmPha finishes second there is still a little money to be made but can't pick a lot of horses to win as the exacta won't be that big.

I think he either wins (70%) or finishes second (90%). Hitting the board is 100%. At this point I am thinking of a couple $10 WPS on Keen Ice and Mubtaahij. Possibly a straight exacta of Frosted/American Pharoah.

JH

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Human beings, as a species, are terrible at handicapping the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont Stakes. In the last 12 years, the betting favorite has won the race ONCE. (Afleet Alex about 10 years ago)

The final odds of the last 9 winners were: 9/1, 14/1, 3/1, 25/1, 13/1, 12/1, 38/1, 4/1 and 6/1. The post time favorite has hit the board in the top three about 50% of the time. The favorite has actually missed being in the top two about 75% of the time. Historically, the Belmont exacta has paid very well.

Even in this small field, I predict that the exacta will pay quite well (I'm thinking about $300), as long as American Pharoah gets third or worse; which I also predict will happen.

Keen Ice has the best breeding, so I'll use him. Mubtaahij is going to win it, so I'll definitely use him. Frosted scares me, so I'll use him as well.

So I will be wagering a small amount on Mubtaahij to win as long as his odds stay over 8/1. I'll be doing an exacta box using those three horses (a $2 box costs $12). I'll also do a trifecta box with those three on the off chance that American Pharoah has an off day or is spent from running his fifth graded stakes race in four months' time. ($2 trifecta box using the same three horses is also $12, naturally, because you have the same 6 possible combinations)

Ben Tucker
once bought JHcurl a beer at a place where they served the most amazing brisket

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That is the "throw out the favorite" strategy. Does work but when it doesn't all the bets go away.

Those bets are good because not spending a lot for a possible big return.

JH
gee, one beer for stopping you from throwing out a big winning ticket. Think I got a raw deal.

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I don't think American Pharoah will win either, but I'm pretty sure he'll finish in the top 4. My top 4 (in no particular order):

American Pharoah
Frosted
Keen Ice
Tale Of Verve

All I know is that with only an 8-horse field I am going to have some fun wheeling exactas and maybe some tris...especially if there is a .50 trifecta.

I'd love to see the following finish:

Keen Ice
Tale Of Verve
Frosted
American Pharoah

I could clean up nicely on that Super, especially with the purse American Pharoah will bring in.

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Belmont is expecting a record handle again this year. So, there will be a lot of money in the pot for sure.

I am liking Frosted more and more. McLaughlin is a local guy who runs a lot of turf at Belmont. Rosario certainly knows the Big Sandy very well.

Might have to wheel some exactas with Frosted on top over a few. Frosted looked really good in the Wood and has time on the track. Besides what would be better for curlers than a Frosted/Keen Ice exactor (for the Canadians in the crowd).

The crowd won't be as large as tickets will not be sold at the door and the attendance is limited to 90k. Last year (yes, I was there) it took 2 or 3 hours to get out of the parking lot. Fortunately, I was hanging out in the stable area with some owners. We had a DD and just partied until well past midnight. Quite the day and experience for sure.

JH
making my bets on Friday at OTB

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Tomorrows bets will be

Saver $5 box exacta - Frosted, Keen Ice, Materiality
$2 box exacta - Mubtaahij, Tale of Verve, (above)
$5 WPS on Frosted and Keen Ice
$10 WPS on Frosted (for a friend)

Yep, throwing out AmPha for the top two. I think he will sink into the Big Sandy stretch and get passed by at least two horses. I am currently loving Frosted which is probably a mistake. One of the reasons I bet the day before so I don't change my mind.

JH
OTB tomorrow, probably will stay and bet the day at Belmont

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I hear .50 Tris and .10 Supers...can have some fun with that without breaking the bank.

I too will be making my bets tomorrow.

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I'm adding Tale of Verve to my trifecta box with Mubtaahij, Frosted and Keen Ice.

Almost half way through this Saturday card and not a single favorite has won.

Ben Tucker

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quote:

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Originally posted by tuck
I'm adding Tale of Verve to my trifecta box with Mubtaahij, Frosted and Keen Ice.

Almost half way through this Saturday card and not a single favorite has won.

Ben Tucker

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Superfecta

The Superfecta Box came in just above 15-1 on the box. Muj/Frosted/keen ice/AmerPhar The W/P/S on keen ice wasn't so great but a win is a win. Thank you for the chatter here over the past month plus. Paid off in the end!

The Degenerate Gambler

Last edited by ptg13 on 06-06-15 at 11:05PM

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Well, that did not work out for me. I did get the WPS on Frosted and Keen Ice. Needed AmPha to finish 3rd to make a bundle.

My problem is that he will now be placed in the "great" horse category. Sorry, don't think he belongs there. Big Red is still the best of all time. AmPha might barely break the top ten. Alydar is better and never won a triple crown race.

JH

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