Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

If you need a good longshot for your trifecta box (or just because you can't resist a live longshot), here's one for you: Bolo

Bolo is probably the best 3 year old in America...on turf. Alas, second in the San Felipe and 3rd in the Santa Anita...he might not be the best 3 year old on dirt. Consider this, however: Bolo is bred to run all day and that's big in The Derby. Also you should know that the Churchill Downs dirt track is fairly famous for being kind to turf horses. Lots of horses who were best on turf or bred for turf have done very well in The Derby. (Animal Kingdom, Barbaro, Dullahan, Paddy 'O Prado and Big Brown)

I haven't looked for awhile, but I think Vegas had him at 30 to 1. I think he'll go off at 25 to 1. I don't like his chances to win it, but I do like his chances to hit the board.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Keen Ice is IN! Made From Lucky will not run following a lackluster workout today. Real curlers will bet a little on Keen Ice (except Misty, whom I am upset with for the rest of today)

Keen Ice is a son of CURLIN from an Awesome Again mare. That means he has a Breeders Cup Classic winner on both sides of his pedigree. Keen Ice will be charging at the end. Unfortunately, he's not very fast. The jockey will have to perfectly time a long late charge. I think we'll end up with Corey Lanerie riding, but I base that on trainer Dale Romans' frequent use of Corey for big races. I haven't read anything yet.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

The post positions were drawn and we're set for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. I'm busy planting, so I'm short on time to post...but I imagine I've said more than enough.

My trifecta box will be Mubtaahij, Frosted, Firing Line, Bolo and Dortmund...and that is in the exact order that I think they will finish. If I can talk my wife into loaning me some money, I'll also be boxing the same 5 horses for the superfecta. I'll also be betting Mubtaahij to win and a Mubtaahij/Frosted exacta box.

If you want to place a casual bet because you're maybe just a casual Derby fan: My pick of Mubtaahij might be outside the mainstream thinking and you might want a safer pick. In that case, I'd suggest Frosted at 15 to 1 or Dortmund at 3 to 1...or you could join me and bet Mubtaahij at 20 to 1.

My Official Derby Prediction:

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum wins with Mubtaahij
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum gets 2nd with Frosted

Good luck
Ben Tucker
(Mubtaahij is Arabic for "elated")

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Let's not forget the fillies in Friday's Kentucky Oaks:

Stellar Wind will be the favorite (daughter of CURLIN). I'm A Chatterbox will be the second pick of the bettors.

I disagree. I think it's a 2 horse race between Bird At The Wire and Condo Commando. My gut is telling me Bird At The Wire because she had a terrible trip for the Florida Oaks and still won it, but my brain is telling me Condo Commando because she looks to be the lone early speed in this race. I'm going with my brain for this one (but will have some insurance down for Bird At The Wire) because being the lone speed is a very dangerous thing. If a horse who likes the lead can get an easy lead and relax...well, that's like giving her a headstart.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Here is something I have not said in some time. Tuck is wrong. Euro horses just don't win the Derby. Too much travel.

Why is post position so important? 20 horses. Spots 1 and 11 get loaded first as they load two at time. Those horses stand in the gate what seems like forever. The outside positions in the auxiliary gate have a pretty good sized gap that moves them even further from the rail. American Pharoah got a bad spot in the 18 hole. Makes it easy for me to throw him out.

JH
time to find the throw outs

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Since I know you are all waiting, here are my picks.

Frosted or Dortmund win. Using them in some exactors and trifectas. Doing a big part wheel tri with 7 horses on the bottom. American Pharoah hits the board I think but the 18 hole is just a bit too much for him.

As Willy always says, bet with your head but not over it.

JH
Phils 7 games out after a month, working on a 100 loss season

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Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629

If my sources are correct, there will be a 50-cent trifecta available tomorrow.

It's a good way to throw some extra horses in a box while keeping the cost of the bet reasonable. Cuts down on the cost of a wheel as well of course. Or you can make two wheels to hedge your bets for the same cost as the $1. Given that the Derby Trifecta usually pays pretty well (unless all favorites finish 1-2-3, which isn't likely), you should still net a decent chunk of change if it hits.

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Co-host of the NerdCurl podcast & occasional blogger.

http://www.nerdcurl.com

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Registered: Oct 2013
Location:
Posts: 559

Outside of normal $2 minimum W-P-S show bets, you should have access to the following bets

$1 Exacta
$0.50 Trifecta
$1 Superfecta
$1 Super High Five

Of course when it comes to betting that is not tied directly to Churchill Downs, then there could be other minimums possible. Some OTB might not recognize the $0.50 trifectas for example.

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Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629

$1 Exacta (Boxed): Dortmund, Firing Line, Keen Ice, Frosted, American Pharoah

$.50 Trifecta (Boxed): Dortmund, Firing Line, Keen Ice, Frosted, American Pharoah

$1 Superfecta (Boxed): Dortmund, Firing Line, Frosted, American Pharoah

$2 Win/Place/Show: Keen Ice

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Recreational curler & resident armchair curler at Windy City Curling Club.

Co-host of the NerdCurl podcast & occasional blogger.

http://www.nerdcurl.com

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Registered: Jan 2005
Location:
Posts: 371

When the commentator introduced Keen Ice, he stated he was named after a curling term. Good to get some mention for the sport. 44-1 shot coming in 7th out of 18 was not a bad finish either

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Art M

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Phil D doesn't get paid much, but he gets paid. Very cool.

The field comes staggering home in 2 minutes and 3 seconds. Not that good. The final 1/4 in a very slow 26 seconds. The track seemed to be playing fair, judging from the times of the other races.

Watching both The Derby and the Pat Day Mile yesterday at Churchill Downs, I'm pretty sure that the best 3 year old in all the land is Competitive Edge.

I took a beating yesterday.

Ben Tucker
wounded, but not fatally

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Registered: May 2014
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 629

quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
Phil D doesn't get paid much, but he gets paid. Very cool.

The field comes staggering home in 2 minutes and 3 seconds. Not that good. The final 1/4 in a very slow 26 seconds. The track seemed to be playing fair, judging from the times of the other races.

Watching both The Derby and the Pat Day Mile yesterday at Churchill Downs, I'm pretty sure that the best 3 year old in all the land is Competitive Edge.

I took a beating yesterday.

Ben Tucker
wounded, but not fatally

---

__________________
Recreational curler & resident armchair curler at Windy City Curling Club.

Co-host of the NerdCurl podcast & occasional blogger.

http://www.nerdcurl.com

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: US - CT
Posts: 1431

Late to post results but I did hit the tri. Of course with A.P. winning it did not return all of the bets I made. Hey but I get to cash a ticket.

Won't be betting on the Preakness. A.P., if he runs, will go off at 4-5. No money to be made there unless he does not hit the board.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Competitive Edge, if he runs, will win the Preakness by 2 lengths at odds of 6 to 1. Setting the stakes record for the Pat Day Mile (formerly the Derby Trial) yesterday was amazing. The old record had stood since 1969 (Ack Ack). His time was just .8 off the mile record for the venerable Churchill Downs.

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