Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

PLACE YOUR BETS:

A quick list of the odds; followed by a quick sentence. More analysis to follow on each team shortly...unless I retire again.

Shuster 1 to 1 Even money for the team that was the best all of last year and is even better this year.

Brown 3 to 1 Mediocre year is turning better and better with each outing. Nice cash in Scotland sandwiched in between rounds of miserable golf on miserable historic courses in miserable Scottish weather.

Fenson 4 to 1 Some lineup changes to counter disappointing results did not change the disappointing results. Still, this skip always gets up for The Big Show. I don't think anyone has ever gotten rich betting against Pizza Pete.

Clark 4 to 1 They steal Beighton from him (but gift him Hufman to make up for it)...then they put him to the expense of the Challenge Round despite obviously earning that bye...started the year like a bad Senior team and has really come on in December and January. They're my pick.

Birr 5 to 1 Talking about starting off badly! Seems to be coming on strong. Mentally tough and peaking at the right time. Dangerous.

Corbett 10 to 1 Team was very successful on the tough Ontario circuit last year and did well at Nationals. Then they fluked a shot to bump Gemmell out of the playoffs. Then this year they've been out a little less and not doing anywhere near as well. A small step forward and they can make the podium. A small step back and they miss the playoffs. I'm guessing a small step back from their breakout year. I could be wrong.

Dropkin 10 to 1 HPP Junior team has not had a good record vs. their elders this year, but talent is talent and they got talent.

Leichter 15 to 1 Nice to see Sax Sather get back to the Show. We always get a handful of Alaskans at these things. Leichter team played on the Ontario tour this year with limited success. Getting to Jacksonville surprised nobody and it will be fun to watch Nate Clark sweep again, but they have the look of an outsider.

Clawson 20 to 1 IF they can keep their roll going through Juniors and IF they don't think of Jacksonville as a reward but, rather, a challenge; THEN they might outplay their youth and their odds.

(Last one is convoluted, so I'll clarify it right away)

Heater McCormick 3 to 1, Heath McCormick 20 to 1 or Bill Stopera 8 to 1...depends which team shows up.

Bet with your hearts and bet more than you can afford to lose. It's more fun for you that way and way more profitable for me.

Ben Tucker (I never, ever mean to offend...just trying to make it fun and increase the attention)

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Registered: Jun 2007
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Heater/Heath/Bill isn't for sure in yet. If Clawson or Dropkin win Junior Nationals, they are. Otherwise the team that wins Juniors will be there instead.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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To clarify the betting lines on the McCormick team:

Heater is the first option should Dropkin or Clawson win Juniors (both of those team already have a spot in the nine teams that have qualified...last spot being held for the Junior winners) Chance of one of those two teams winning in Willmar is north of 75%. That means that they will likely be asking Heater to come to Jacksonville.

So there are 6 possibilities:

Possibility 1: Heath McCormick comes to Jacksonville. Now Heath is an OK curler, but he ain't no Heater McCormick. Heath must be Heater's twin brother; wimpy twin brother. Heath does not take many chances. Heath worries about what the other team is going to do. Heath worries about leaving himself an easy shot. If Heath comes to Jacksonville, the odds will be long. 20 to 1

Possibility 2: HEATER McCormick comes to Jacksonville. Heater plays foot-to-the-floor balls-to-the-walls curling. He calls a freeze when every sane curler calls a hit. Heater doesn't care who has the hammer and he certainly doesn't care if he ends up playing tough shots all day and all night. We haven't seen Heater since he qualified in a Slam and then beat Howard to make the semi's. Heater will throw a hit and then turn his back on the rock to walk away because he knows it's been made. Heater is an animal. He's insane and should be kept away from women and children. Heater is arrogant. He's also really good. If Heater comes to Jacksonville after being moved out of the High Performance Program and renames our Nationals "Heater's Revenge", then that team goes down to 2 to 1.

Possibility 3: McCormick declines to come to Jacksonville, but his team decides to go without him. The one (and only one) good weekend that team had this year was when Heath missed the St. Paul Cash and Stopera skipped. (a half-truth for literary impact...they started the year well in KW and didn't do that bad until lately) Forced at the Challenge Round to bring in Andrew "Shortstop" Stopera as a fifth when Duck Gemmell pulled a hamstring, I could see the team taking Shortstop to Jacksonville. If they do, they won't be bad. Duck skipped them last year and lost the tiebreaker. They'd do OK. Not near as well as they would if Heater showed up, but probably better than if Heath were to show up. Stop and Shortstop and Duck will win some games if Duck's pulled hamstring heals. 8 to 1

Possibility 4: A team wins Juniors other than Dropkin or Clawson and takes the final spot. Unnamed Junior team would start at 30 to 1

Possibility 5: A team other than Dropkin or Clawson wins Juniors, but the HPP pulls Korey off his team to skip the World Junior Team. Then Dropkin's team doesn't want to go without him...they have college and lives and such. Then the mess gets bigger. Especially if Shortstop and his Illinois team wins; making him unavailable to Team McCormick.

Possibility 6 (and it's very possible): Dropkin or Clawson win Juniors. Team McCormick is invited. All of them decline because they just aren't rockin' it this year. Then those in charge need to either pick from Marathon Mike Farbelow and Josh Pegleg Bahr. Bahr is out for the season with a broken leg, so it will be Haluptzok/Wald. Waldo beat Farbs head-to-head, so they's get asked first I think. One or neither team might agree to come. Both might decline. Either way, it won't look good.

So that's why the messed up betting line on the yet incomplete field. I don't know if Team McCormick will be there nor if we will see Heath or Heater. Watching it become Heater's Revenge would be kinda cool. The HPP teams last year couldn't hold back a mildly annoyed Face Shuster...they'd have their hands full with a pissed off Heater...if we could ever get him back like he was in 2012.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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John Shuster and Face Team 1 to 1 even money chalk:

Quite the year. They currently sit 12th in the WCT rankings and could get to the Top Ten by the end of this month. Something like 6 cashes (including 3 wins) this year and some of those against the best fields in the world.

Defending champs, blah blah blah, nice guys, blah blah blah, playing at another level, blah blah blah. This team isn't a lock. Ty and Hammy aren't even the best curlers in their families. Landsteiner shots from the wrong hack (all lefties should be shot). Every time they got on a roll, they'd lose to McEwen. All you have to do to beat them is play like McEwen. No problem.

I don't know what the record is for an American team finishing in the WCT standings. The standings haven't been around all that long. I'm pretty sure that Face Team will finish the year with a new historic high mark. Historic? Yeah, they are having an historic year.

Some of us (me included) cheer a little bit louder for the self-formed teams. The non-curling public doesn't particularly have warm feeling for Face because they don't know the impact of his pressure-packed-win at the Olympic Qualifying Event. Combining those two facts with the historic year this team has put together and you can see why I'm cheering for them. A World medal is plainly within reach.

So bet the chalk if you must, but remember this old gamblers adage:

There is not a man alive
who fed his family betting 4 to 5

You can't get rich betting even money.

Ben Tucker

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Tuck is close to right on (that hurts to say), IMO, on the odds for these teams with the exception of Fenson. Shuster will win unless they have a bad playoff game or Brown or Clark pick it up in the championship game. These are the last three teams standing and it comes down to a couple individual games where in curling anything can happen.

Of course Birr has the ability to raise his game to that level as well and I hate to discount our last World Medalist.

Fenson comes next. A possibility but I don't see it happening.

The field cannot dodge all 5 of these teams and is a non-factor.

My pick comes from the heart and is Craig and Kroy et al.

Always the homer but I can afford it with my future Powerball winnings.

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"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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Registered: Dec 2014
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Money on Shuster. Potential upsets by Brown and Clark if they show up. Fenson also potential if he gets on a hot streak.

Will be interesting to see how Shuster does at the Continental Cup; that may change bets. He was solid at the last CC. But he's been hot/cold before.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Oh that's just great. Another losing bet from loser Wisconsin. I hate the Packers and I hate you. How much beer and cheese do you losers think I need? Truth is, I sell the beer you lose to me (except for the Lindekugel) and sell the cheese (except for the Wisconsin sharp cheddar OH! and the deep fried cheese curds...they sound awful but they taste awesome)

Ben Tucker (secretly I find Craigie Brownie extremely easy to cheer for and would love to seem him represent the USA again...but don't tell anyone I said that because I hate Wisconsin)

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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Team Clark needs a new nickname. The Brady Bunch just isn't intimidating.

The team started the year by cashing in Canada. True, it was a small field so half of them cashed and it wasn't much cash, but they beat Japan to get the check and it was a pretty good field.

Then they went to Edmonton to get their butts kicked. Then to Red Deer for another butt-kicking. Then flew all the way to Ontario for yet another butt-kicking (OK, they missed the playoffs by draw shot measurements and they beat Epping that week, but the continuing tale of getting kicked in the tail is my theme).

That's when things changed. Beighton got lured away by the HPP (I don't blame Sean...this is expensive stuff and being on a funded HPP team cannot be easily turned down and the Brady Bunch wasn't cashing Canadian cheques...note the cute spelling of checks).

In comes Colin Hufman. The team flies to Duluth and makes the Final against Face on Face's home ice. Brady decides that home ice isn't enough of an advantage for Face, so he spots them 5 in the first end but ends up losing. Still, B Bunch 2.0 is looking good.

Good showing in Eveleth. Good showing in Blaine until they played Willie Lyburn. Things are going good.

At the Points Cutoff after Eveleth, the B Bunch are in the hunt. The HPP decide to select the Junior team to get the bye to Jacksonville, but the B Bunch shrug it off and go to the Challenge Round. There they control (not dominate) all of their games and earn a berth out of the A Event.

Is this the year Brady gets his Bunch back to Worlds? His one appearance at Worlds (2013) was such a strong individual performance, we've all been eagerly awaiting another look.

I think this might be the year. Undoubtedly, Beighton is a very good curler...but I think that Hufman fits this team much better. I've always been impressed by Tilker at lead and by the team's collective intelligence. I do find their team mantra of "get 2 with the hammer and force 1 without the hammer" to be boring and makes it so they seldom blow teams off the ice but just stay in control of games...but every time Brady jumps into the deep end of the pool he seems to drown...so whatever wins for them, I guess, is OK.

Mostly, I just find Brady very easy to cheer for. So I'm not only cheering for him; I'm picking The B Bunch to win it. They won't blow teams away, but they'll be in control most of the way.

Ben Tucker

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Hmmmm, not once in all those paragraphs did you mention where Brady is originally from.

You're slipping ....

-BA

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quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
Brown 3 to 1 Mediocre year is turning better and better with each outing. Nice cash in Scotland sandwiched in between rounds of miserable golf on miserable historic courses in miserable Scottish weather.

---

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Tuck, you judge talent about as well as the high performance coaching staff, and you change your mind equally as often.

How about we take a moment to congratulate the field, and thank them for showing up instead of doing your best to rain on their parade.

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Registered: Dec 2005
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OUCH! Good line.

OK, I'll stop.

Ben Tucker

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Yeah, give it a rest Ben. There have been way to much interest in CZ since you've came back.

I need to get some work done, and Gerry will probably have to up his advertising rates.

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Registered: Jan 2015
Location: United States
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quote:

---

Originally posted by tuck
Oh that's just great. Another losing bet from loser Wisconsin. I hate the Packers and I hate you. How much beer and cheese do you losers think I need? Truth is, I sell the beer you lose to me (except for the Lindekugel) and sell the cheese (except for the Wisconsin sharp cheddar OH! and the deep fried cheese curds...they sound awful but they taste awesome)

Ben Tucker (secretly I find Craigie Brownie extremely easy to cheer for and would love to seem him represent the USA again...but don't tell anyone I said that because I hate Wisconsin)

---

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Norse Curler
SKOL

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Registered: Mar 2009
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Tuck, why are you listening to "Pal"? We finally got a little banter going here and this one post wonder complains? Believe me, the curlers whether given 1-1 0r 100-1 odds like seeing the posts on CZ. It shows fans care, it gets them a little press and helps spark discussion as the event plays out. Nothing worse than playing at the highest level you have achieved and no one acknowledges it.

You are not raining on anyone's parade especially Norse Curler who's parade is already beyond saturation.

Let's light this board up!

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"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

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mostly a lurker here coming out of the woodwork to say I love reading tucks odds and y'alls arguments over them. Lighten up, @pal.

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Registered: Jun 2007
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Whoever "pal" is, he/she clearly does not know who Tuck is or how he goes about his business on these forums.

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"Pal" was the creep at the bowling ally in the movie "Uncle Buck" who had issues with his toothpick.

Same guy I think.

biterbar has attached this image:

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"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire"-Winston Churchill

Last edited by biterbar on 01-14-16 at 10:29AM

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I wish I had his hair. Although I guess that was 25+ years ago, so who knows.

Last year was a three horse race. This year its a two horse race. It'll be exciting to see who places.

I however disagree that this is a weaker field than last year. The big dogs are just that much better.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
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I'm sorry if I offend anyone. Those who know me will know that is not who I am. They also know, however, that I'm not all sunshine and lollipops. I don't like Mixed Doubles and I say it. I don't always think fields are strong or programs are good or trends are up. I like to think I'm WAY more positive than your average internet poster...but I call it like I see it.

I returned to posting because a player that I respect very much texted that the year seems to be going by unnoticed and it's been a remarkable year.

I get no joy out of posting and less than nothing out of leading the discussion. I just assumed others would get things going. If this crap costs me a single friend or even leads strangers to think that I'm an a**hole, then I want out.

IF Mr. Lucky posts that I'm pretty, then I'll get to work on the Jacksonville Women's morning line; but not until Mr. Lucky writes that I'm pretty.

Ben Tucker (I'm not very pretty)

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Real friends don't leave when someone says something offensive.

I was looking at the WCT rankings to try and justify why this year is better than last year, but in reality they came up pretty even. Slightly better this year, but not worth writing about.(except that bit I just wrote)

I find it interesting that you think a group of junior coaches could easily qualify in the field. I know a couple of them and they are good curlers, but the field, including Clawson are no slouches.

I'm no fan of mixed doubles either. Every end starts with two missed shots. The guard is too long and the draw is too deep.

Last edited by pal on 01-14-16 at 01:53PM

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I don't know if I can do it Ben. Like I said, I'm getting more work done when I'm off CZ

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I guess the fact that you're on the cover of Dakota Farmer magazine, makes you "pretty".....popular

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A guy I know, knows a guy who knows mr lucky and he says he heard mr lucky say tuck was pretty.

Can anyone else confirm that rumour?

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: Fairport, NY
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The last time I saw Ben Tucker curl a competitive stone, it was because he came out of the broadcast booth to sub for the Sampson rink in Nationals. Now I see Tuck on the list of teams entered in the ND Playdowns.

Next thing you know Tuck will be joining us in Jacksonville to announce some games.

Good luck Tuck! Kick some farmer butt.

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Joe Calabrese

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